Episode 17

June 10, 2023


Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR DFS Preview

Jun 10 2023 | 00:30:28


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz preview the NASCAR Cup Series race at Sonoma this week. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the second road course of the year and the guys analyze the strategies for DraftKings and Fanduel to help you win your NASCAR DFS contests.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's going on everyone? Welcome back to the Fancy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast Stream through the Better Sports Network. I'm Dan Malan, joined as always by the Fs W three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells. Matt, we are previewing Sonoma this week, but I did want to get your thoughts on last week's race at Gateway. Kyle Busch gets his third win of the season. Does it in dominating fashion, leading over a hundred laps. Um, curious what you thought about the race itself. The racing wasn't awful there, there was some passing, but overall tire strategy didn't really come into play. Tires didn't matter at all. I can't believe Eric Elmar thought he might be gaining a little strategy late in that race by being the only person to pit, but it tires didn't really matter. And overall that's kind of been a big complaint, uh, by the drivers, uh, with this tire combo this year on, uh, short flat tracks. Speaker 3 00:01:11 Yeah, um, I'm right there with you. I, I thought the racing was pretty good overall. I thought Fox's coverage was lackluster to not show mid pack, uh, passing and racing. Uh, I'll just comp it with the Spain gp. That happened at the same time for F1 and sure first happened one by 24 seconds, right? Doesn't sound great. You know what Skys sports did? They showed all of the battles happening further back. You basically never saw verse happen even though he won the race. You basically never saw him because they were showing all of the, uh, fights and strategy for second and third and further back. And I think Fox, and we'll see what N B C does. Usually they do a better job when the handoff happens. Um, I think that would've helped the fans' opinion of the race a little bit. Um, you know, just following the three dudes who are out front that aren't passing each other but aren't getting caught doesn't really help sell the race. Speaker 3 00:02:14 Like show it when there's a battle. Show the other guys who are racing for a position, cuz everybody wants to see their favorite drivers. Um, I thought Austin Dylan was an idiot saying that Austin Cindrich Wright reared him even though, yeah, I don't know. It must just be new dead sleep deprivation. I have no idea. Um, as for the tires though, we will be seeing a change in July according to reports. Good Year is bringing new tires starting in July that are supposed to be softer and should be falling off more, which will be good. Speaker 2 00:02:47 Well we are, uh, previewing Sonoma this weekend. This is the second road course on the 2023 NASCAR Cup series schedule. They previously ran Koda Circuit of the Americas back in March. Um, overall, you know, you okay, you feeling, you feeling okay about playing cash games? Obviously this is a good week to load up on tournaments. Usually road courses while the scores on the DFS sites are uh, you know, lower, um, makes for lineup construction, uh, a lot of fun. Um, you know, do you, do you consider the dominator points? Do you, you know, maybe throw them away and hope to get, you know, those guys that finish well while getting you pd, you know, what's your read on the slate in the contest for this week? Speaker 3 00:03:28 So, typically speaking, you're right that scoring on road courses is uh, lower than say ovals, especially the Koch 600, which is just a really long race. Um, this race does have more laps than your standard road course does. It's 110 laps this weekend, 218 miles. The 350 in the race name comes from kilometers in case anybody was wondering. Um, but in terms of lineup construction, I'm fine with both. Obviously I'm the bigger cash proponent between the two of us. Uh, I do like the way that the field was set for cash. I think there's a couple of clear cash plays, uh, that will get to shortly, uh, in a, you know, a segment or two. Um, but in general I do think this is an interesting road course in terms of dominator points. If we look back at the last five, which by the way goes back a year longer than you would think cuz I didn't raise here at all in 2020. Speaker 3 00:04:30 Uh, so we've got 20, 22, 20 21, 20 19, 20 18, and 2017 to look at, uh, only three times have we seen a driver lead 50 plus laps here, right? And now I know previously it's only been 90 laps and now it's 110 cuz they changed it cuz it's a different layout. So to keep the number the same, they gotta add more laps, right? Um, but most of the time we're seeing about two to two and a half drivers erase lead 20 plus laps, but only 0.6 over the last five have led 50 plus laps. So in terms of, um, you know, leaders we'll see. Now I will say one big thing that's gonna change that is there are no stage cautions. Speaker 2 00:05:21 That was gonna be my next co uh, question because we did see the no stage cautions of this new rule change, uh, take place at Coda. And the two guys that were on the front row for that race, I believe it was Tyler Reddick and William Byron that were on the front row for that race. They led 69 of the 75 laps at Coda. And I'm wondering if we maybe see something similar for this race with Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick on the front row for this race. Speaker 3 00:05:45 Yeah, I think if we look back at the last few races, you know, chase Elliot and Kyle Larson both had the fastest cars in basically the last three races here. What happened, they led the first age, especially for Kyle Larson. Uh, he led the first stage then pitted and then, you know, two races ago he pitted and still wound up winning because he was able to gauge strategy and everybody else pitted behind him. And that got him to the lead. Last year he did the same thing except people didn't pit. And then Larson had trouble passing and got stuck mid-pack and I think he finished 14th, but he had the fastest car. Chase Elliott also had the fastest car and then had a loose wheel late in the race that forced him to pit again and that cost him, uh, the win, which obviously went to Daniel Suarez. So I do think that, you know, getting stage points but not throwing the caution, therefore the race just continues. Um, will in fact benefit the guys up front in terms of lap led domination. So do I expect one guy to lead 50 or more laps this week? I think there is a guy that'll that'll do that, yes. Um, I do think tire wear is gonna be a bigger concern this weekend than, than you know, certainly gateway though. Speaker 2 00:07:06 Now why is that? Is it just because of uh, maybe the heat or just the certain track conditions for Sonoma in particular? I mean we haven't even done like a full Sonoma like breakdown between the elevation changes and the number of turns yet, but I figured we could transition right into that. Speaker 3 00:07:21 Yeah, so we'll touch on the tires and go into the, to the track thing. It's a slightly different compound this year than it was last year. Michael McDowell seemed to think, uh, that it wasn't, it didn't feel all that different in the car. But if you were listening to Larry Mack on the, on the practice broadcast, which by the way props to Fox actually gave usable information during the practice broadcast. Um, he was tracking, there was falloff. The longer the cars were on, uh, track there was off between their first lap and you know, 5, 6, 7, 10 laps down the road. Um, so we'll see. He was talking to crew chiefs before the race and they thought maybe they would do it in three stops, maybe four. Uh, that's more than we normally get for stage racing. So if we're gonna get more pit stops but no stage cautions, that's interesting to me. Speaker 3 00:08:15 I do think that it still plays into the hands of the front runners, um, because they'll still control, but you know, if the front runners are coming into pit, people behind them are gonna do it cuz it's, you need the tires here more than you, more than you don't. Um, but I do think that, you know, this, this track's fairly old, it's pretty worn down. Um, Bob Packers did tweet, they put some patches across some of the asphalts, um, this year and some of the key turns, which will add a little bit more grip. Okay? But the question is, if you get more grip, is that actually gonna help with tire wear? Cause usually more grip means more rubbers coming off, right? Speaker 2 00:08:57 Uh, tracks Speaker 3 00:08:58 My cat is making an appearance <laugh>, he agrees with me by the way that the tires are gonna be important. Um, but I also think that the shorter, uh, track layout, which is what they're going with this year, they're going back to the standard short shoot, which is 1.99 mile 12 turns. Yeah, don't look at the, the turn numbers in the track layout, excuse me, in the track diagram cuz they're, they're numbered all, Speaker 2 00:09:25 They have like eight A in the SS and like three A, if you just Speaker 3 00:09:28 Physically count that one through 12, there are actually 12 turns in this layout, right? Um, you know, elevation change is 160 feet of elevation change per lap. Um, I think that's pretty comparable. Dakota, if I'm Speaker 2 00:09:43 Right with that straightaway, climb right up. Thes huge Speaker 3 00:09:45 First turn straightaway. Yeah. Um, there's some blind corners. Some guys are gonna full send it in through the Ss. So, um, I do think we'll see a little bit more tire wear, uh, this year than we have in the past. Speaker 2 00:10:00 Okay? Now we don't really touch on the differences between DraftKings and FanDuel scoring, but I always feel like at road courses it carries a lot more weight. You know, with FanDuel you don't get any, uh, rewards for a fastest lap. Instead, you know, FanDuel just does 0.1 points per lap lead and 0.1 points per lap completed on DraftKings. They will give away a quarter of a point per a lap lead, but then 0.45 points for fastest lap. So on FanDuel, you know, on on DraftKings I do have, you know, for example, we're recording this right before the Xfinity Race, but right after the Cup Series qualifying. And so for a lot of my Xfinity series lineups, I have a lot of Kyle Larson cause he's on the pole and he had the fastest car by a country mile. It, it's, it's unbelievable. He's not Speaker 3 00:10:42 Even close. He's a second faster than the dude starting second in the x xfinity Speaker 2 00:10:45 Rate. Uh, so I'm more inclined to try and maybe target dominator points and and win equity on DraftKings. Whereas on FanDuel it's like I'm, I'm more inclined just to look at win equity guys that are offering pd. Um, and and just overall like good finishing position is that, you know, kind of where you're at as well. Just, you know, we don't really care about, you know, the lapse lead on FanDuel cause they, they don't matter as much this week nearly as much as they will for a track like a Dover, a Martinsville or Bristol, Speaker 3 00:11:12 Correct? Yeah, they're like uh, the points in uh, whose lane is it anyway, right? Uh, <laugh> they give 'em out and they really don't matter. Uh, it is interesting that you asked for the difference cuz in the playbook uh, this week there will be charts for DK points by starting spot and FanDuel points by starting spot. This is taken by looking at the last five races at Sonoma, disregarding the driver and just going based off starting spot. Doesn't matter why they started there, how they started there, who started there, the make of the car, whatever. It's just the guys that started on the pole averaged this over the last five races. The guys that started, you know, 38th averaged this over the last five races. So it is pretty interesting though because considering the difference between um, you know, having um, lapse led fastest laps, whatnot, um, it doesn't really make a difference this week between FanDuel and DK to be perfectly honest. Speaker 3 00:12:15 Um, if we look, you know, when you see the charts, a lot of the starting spots rank about the same on both sites. Um, for example, the polls that are here has ranked 18th and DK and 16th on FanDuel in terms of points per race. Guy starting second has ranked third on dk four on FanDuel. Okay. Uh, interestingly enough, the guy starting 23rd has ranked first in points score per race on both DK and FanDuel. Not saying that you automatically plug in the dude starting 23rd. Okay, just saying <laugh> that on average it is the best starting spot. Why? Probably cuz somebody screwed up qualifying who should have been in the top 10 and worked their way up and made it. Um, but it is interesting that a lot of them are similar uh, between DK and FanDuel and that's probably cuz there's not a whole lot of LAP led. So it's not like there's a ton of points to be gained there. Speaker 2 00:13:15 All right, well DraftKings has added starting positions, uh, to the driver after we have just finished qualifying. So, you know, I think we can finally dig into the driver pool and the driver preview. Um, we do have some road core specialists that do get priced up a little bit on weeks like this. Um, AJ Alman Dinger is always gonna be priced over $9,000. Um, hasn't had great results in the Cup series of late, uh, on road courses, but he is starting, uh, fifth, uh, at strangely enough he's starting fifth for both the Cup and Xfinity series race. Um, but at the same time, you know, we haven't really seen him live up to those expectations aside from the Cup series race two years ago at Indianapolis when they ran the road course and he won it. It was a chaotic race though. Um, not much that you can really take away from that. Um, started seventh at Coda finished 34th, you know, but how likely is he to go out and maybe get between 40 and 50 points on DraftKings, which ideally is kind of what you want from a driver in hi in his price range on a road course. Speaker 3 00:14:19 Uh, for Almond Digger, I think it's pretty reasonable. I mean he's starting fifth, right? So on DK that's 39 finishing points, right? So even if he starts like he starts fifth, even if he finishes fifth, it's 39 points. So it's pretty close to the 40 that we're looking for, right? Like it wouldn't hurt if he goes out there and throws out some fastest laps, which I look, I think he can give that guy some fresh tires and an open track. I think there's no reason why he can't go and set a couple of fastest laps. Um, there's a shot he may in a pit cycle lead a lap or two, uh, which certainly helps if he moves up a spot, look, finishing fourth would get him 40 points plus one for the pd. That's 41 points. And then if you add in a couple of fastest laps, it's almost another point. Speaker 3 00:15:09 It's not like it's that hard to see him getting to 42 or so. Does he have win equity? I'm not sure he is got the car to win, but we've seen him win in worse equipment. Um, look, his lap averages were pretty good, so he's going to be popular. I don't think the price is gonna deter people. There's I think plenty of value plays as you'll see in the playbook. Um, that can help you sneak in another guy over 9,000 pretty easily. I do wish he was starting a little further back, but that would also make him more popular. So it's kind of like a double <laugh>, double edged sword there. Speaker 2 00:15:46 Yeah. Um, other noted road course, uh, drivers, Tyler Reddick is quickly becoming the best road course driver in this series. Uh, since NASCAR switched to the next gen model, uh, he has won three road courses. He won, uh, won Road America last year. I think he also won Indianapolis and then he won Coda this year. Uh, he is starting on the front row as we mentioned earlier. You know, I alluded to it, you know what we saw at Koto with Reddick and, and Byron leading a majority of the lap. Both those drivers starting on the front row. Do we expect, by Speaker 3 00:16:17 The way, Reddick had to do that through like six restarts. There was a ton of restarts at the end of that race that he held everybody off at, right? Speaker 2 00:16:26 Good. Yep. Speaker 3 00:16:27 Each time Speaker 2 00:16:28 And ultimately led 41 laps, had 13 fastest laps. Uh, it is his only win of the season. King close at winning another at Bristol Dirt. But you know, we're on a road course, um, we're gonna get to Chase Elliott, Martin SCH Jr. But you know, do you feel pretty good about Tyler Reddick being the favorite now to win the race that Kyle Larson is starting 16th? Speaker 3 00:16:48 Yeah, I do. I mean he's so good at road courses. His team owner Denny Hamlin jacked his setup for the race. He admitted to it <laugh> during in practice. He said like, I've not been good in the next gen car and road courses cuz it's br brought out some of life flaws. So I asked, uh, Reddick for what his setup was cuz now he's, you know, in our Toyota camp and uh, then he went out and landed on the pole. So I think Reddick's got the right setup. He's, you know, second not that far behind Hamlin I think think he's quite honestly gonna beat him through the first set of turns there. Um, yeah, there's no reason not to play Tyler Reddick at this point. I think you basically half, not that he's a must play, but I do think that so many people are going to play him that if you're fading him, you really better hope something happens to him cuz otherwise you've got no shot at making <laugh> making the money. I would I would assume. Speaker 2 00:17:47 Do you think? Kind of, but I mean like I, he's probably gonna be the driver in the 10 K range that I'm heaviest on. Um, and I'm not even looking at the domino points. I'm just looking at win equity, especially without the stage breaks. That just makes me feel even better about him leading more and more laps. Uh, Larson I'm gonna guess probably works his way through the field perfectly fine. Just, you know, the, the car was fine in practice, it just didn't make the top five in the qualifying session basically. Um, and so he went in Speaker 3 00:18:16 A little heavy on turn 11 and screwed up his entire lap. Speaker 2 00:18:19 Yeah. And so, you know, I'm actually curious to see what the sports books do, uh, with Larson now that he's starting outside the top 15. I'm curious if they do get a little bit longer on his odds. I saw him going off at plus four 50 in some books. Um, Speaker 3 00:18:31 Yeah, he was, uh, he and Chase and Reddick were co favorites earlier this, you know, as, as early or as late as Friday. Um, he, those three were basically co favorites in the books and to tell you, I'm looking uh, at them right now and Larson, I'm not sure if they've adjusted quite yet cuz Larson, chase and it's Larson, then Chase, then Reddick, which I would assume would adjust because there's no way that Reddick should be behind those two. Right. Starting well ahead of both of them. Speaker 2 00:19:06 Um, how likely do you think it is that Denny Hamlin can go out and maybe lead the entire first stage? He's, he's n especially when his, his employee and far better road course driver in Tyler Reddick is starting right next to him. I'm under the impression that Reddick doesn't really have any issues getting around him at some point. Speaker 3 00:19:23 Yeah, I think, I think Hamlin may, if Hamlin beats him through the first set of corners, I think Hamlin can hold him off for maybe five laps. Yeah. And then Reddick's just gonna close the gap and set 'em up in a corner, um, and get past them. So I'm not putting a whole lot of lap led chances. Uh, on Hamlin he's admitted he's not a very good road racer. The only reason he looks better when you look back over time is cuz the Jgr equipment and the non, uh, stock car for everybody was so much better than most other garages that it made up for his deficiencies. Right Now that everybody's basically on a level playing field, he's self-admitted. Uh, he's not <laugh>, he's kind of dead like behind the eight ball on everybody cuz the way he drives doesn't fit with, uh, the next gen car. So I would say that if Hamlin gets a good enough jump on the restart that he could, he could lead a handful of laps. Speaker 2 00:20:25 Uh, Speaker 3 00:20:26 I, I don't expect it Speaker 2 00:20:27 If we aren't, uh, considering Denny Hamlin or Tyler Reddick, which is kind of insane, um, is Martin Jr going to be the next Toyota that we look at because the Toyotas at this race in particular a year ago were an absolute disaster. They were Speaker 2 00:20:43 Terrible missed on the setup. Uh, but this year, you know, they clearly looks like they've righted the ship. You know, Martin Schick Jr. Is 8,800 starts eighth. And so even if he doesn't go out and lead laps necessarily, you know, he can still go up, finish top three, top four. And with that PD and the good finish alone, he can still be good enough to be in the optimal lineup. Or you know, he's a guy that you can build with Tyler Reddick or Denny Hamlin and maybe try to eat up as many of those dominated points in a good finish as well. But if we're not, if we're overlooking Reddick and Hamlin is Mtj or maybe Christopher Bell, that next Toyota that you would look to, Speaker 3 00:21:17 Uh, I would look to Mtj before Bell. I think Bell is solid, but I don't put as much domination upside with him as M t J Look, uh, in the, in, if we're looking at, we're gonna look at a couple of stats this week more so than average finish because I think stage, stage breaks, uh, you know, played a role in average finish for some guys, um, more than than others. So we're gonna look at green flag speed and late run speed, basically. How fast are you late in a green flag run? Cuz remember on road courses, single car spins aren't cautions, right? You gotta actually, like physically Speaker 2 00:21:54 Cars be stopped on the track too. Yeah, Speaker 3 00:21:56 Yeah. You gotta be stopped on the track or wreck your car. Hopefully not like, uh, who shredded his car in Xfinity practice. Um, uh, Speaker 2 00:22:06 Alfredo kind of surprising he damaged it that bad in a road course practice. Speaker 3 00:22:11 Yeah, that was that. I mean, he sheared off half the cart basically. Yep. Um, so yeah, if a guy spins into the dirt, they're not throwing a caution. So that's why we're looking at late flag or uh, late run speed. And if you look at those, um, you know, MTJ is right there with everybody in terms of green flag speed on the last 10 road courses. Uh, he's, he's right there and in practice, if you look at overall lap average, he was best, if you look at five lap average, he was fifth. So I think he has a car that can certainly be in the top five. Uh, if things go his way, maybe he gets another win. Let's also not forget, he's four of his, you know, he is got four road course wins, three of them are at Sonoma. Uh, so he, you know, I I would be reasonably high on, on M T J this week, uh, sea Bell, the fourth place starting spot concerns me Speaker 2 00:23:12 Because you think that's maybe his, you think that's maybe his ceiling? Speaker 3 00:23:16 Yeah, I would've liked it if he had kind of missed the top five in his <laugh> in his qualifying session. Um, you know, it didn't have to do it quite as badly as Ryan Blaney who's starting 31st. Speaker 2 00:23:31 I was gonna ask you about him. Uh, I was also gonna ask, I was gonna lump him, Cindrich and William Byron together, uh, we were talking before we started recording the podcast, uh, but William Byron qualified P 26, Ryan Blaney is P 31 Austin Cindrich, who is surprisingly more expensive than Ryan Blaney. I get it. He's probably a better work horse driver. But Cindrich starts P 34. I'm interested in your thoughts this week because the Fords didn't look very good in practice, nor did they look good in qualifying aside from Michael Mc McDowell and Chris Bosher. But those are two very good road course drivers. Uh, relatively unheralded road course drivers. But are we expecting heavy chalk with Byron Blaney and Cindrich in cash games? Because I would actually be a little bit worried about the Penske drivers, uh, this week. I'm a little worried about the setup. I know the, the Arrow package kind of benefited them the last weeks. I don't know if it's gonna be in their favorite this week. Speaker 3 00:24:28 Um, so it's interesting that you bring that up because I actually have less concern about Austin Cindrich, who, if you look at his overall lap average was eighth in practice, so he was far better than, you know, Blaney was 13th and Byron just never seemed to be comfortable. If you looked at his segment times, they showed him his 25th overall Speaker 2 00:24:55 And he even said even on slower laps when they weren't running his hard, the the rear tires were shaking and that team just kind of looks lost. Like they don't know really what is wrong with the car. Speaker 3 00:25:04 Yeah. And he ran, I mean, to give you an idea, his lamp average comes out 27th in practice, one spot behind or one spot behind Almar and one spot ahead of Josh Biki. So, I mean, not the dog on Bki who I'm putting in the playbook by the way. Um, but I I, and this isn't by the way, just because I, I have Austin Cindrich as my bet in the grill verse grill with uh, <laugh> Ed RA this week who shockingly took Ryan Blaney as his bet. Um, I just think that given practice, I think Austin Cindrich had a better practice. He's also finished top 10 and six of his eight road course races. Uh, he's, I mean he was brought up on road racing and his first time here, remember two years ago we all said nobody could pass and then somehow Austin Cindrich was the only dude out there passing people. He started like way back in the pack a couple of years ago and, uh, wound up finishing here. I can, I can tell you here in just a second cuz I have, I have the data for the last five races. So if we look back, um, two years ago, Austin Cindrich, oh it was, yeah it was last year's race started 25th, finished fifth. Speaker 3 00:26:26 I, I like him better despite the higher race tag. Speaker 2 00:26:31 Um, is this a situation with Byron's team that, you know, it wouldn't surprise us if tomorrow before the race we get a report that they're gonna have to go to the rear for an unapproved adjustment just to like fix whatever issues they may have think that they found with the car? Speaker 3 00:26:43 Yeah, probably. Speaker 2 00:26:44 Okay. Um, I would Speaker 3 00:26:47 Suspect that they would magically find something Speaker 2 00:26:49 <laugh>. Uh, we have a few minutes left. Uh, we've mostly stuck um, in the upper tier. Who are some value plays that we can consider this week? Whether it's just based on them being a good road horse driver or you know, we feel pretty good about them in their starting spot and they can maybe go out and get eh, maybe 35, 40 points on DraftKings. Speaker 3 00:27:08 Yeah, I think Lajoie is back in play this week. I know he had a disappointing time in the nine car. I just don't think he was comfortable in that car. I don't know that it fit him. Also that was just a bad track last week for Hendrick overall. Like none of the Hendrick guys really did anything last week. <laugh>, Speaker 2 00:27:27 A lot of guys in the know said that, that the car setup was just wasn't the best for the nine car last week anyway. Speaker 3 00:27:33 Yeah, it just, it was just ais so, and now he's back to 5,300 probably cuz he's back in the seven and it's, you know, coming off of a bad bad week. Um, but if we look back at Koda man started 27, finished 11th. Um, well Joy's actually a sneaky decent road racer. He's 5,300. That's way too cheap for him. Do not play Noah Grason. I know it says out on DK he is out of the 42. Don't play Grant n finger either, guys. Just figuring out the, the, the track like pl not to mention that car is sucked all year. <laugh> um, Zane Smith I think is playable. He's in the 38 again. That car with Tyler with uh, Todd Gilland piloting it finished 10th Dakota. Granted there was some attrition there but it was running very well all day. We've seen that the car doesn't really matter who's driving it. It's like the 51 in the truck series doesn't matter who you put in it. The thing is fast. Um, there's a few other sneaky guys that I'll say for the playbook. Um, but I do think like the only downside with McDowell is he's starting third. Speaker 2 00:28:44 Yeah. And I mean it doesn't even take like a casual DFS player to just see like that limit him just to tournaments. Um, yeah, maybe he holds the position and he finishes there, in which case he's in the optimal lineup. But it's, it's more we're talking about in terms of probability, it's far more likely that he goes backwards and I would say probably finishes outside the top 10. Speaker 3 00:29:08 I don't know if I'm ready to say he'll finish outside the top 10 cuz the guy has been good. I mean, I'd rather put steak money on Busher finishing inside the top 10 than McDowell. Sure. But I think they're both unheralded, um, road racers. So I, I would look, um, you know, a couple of guys that I mentioned, I'm not that confident in Gilland because again, he's in the 51. Uh, not great. Speaker 2 00:29:38 All right. Well Matt, thank you so much for your time. Um, unless you have any final thoughts, we are off next week. Uh, I know you're a father, so, uh, happy preliminary Father's Day to you. Uh, I know we're both looking forward to the week off <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:29:51 Yeah, the week off will be uh, nice. It's a little bit of a grind, obviously 16 races in plus the All-Star race race plus the, Speaker 2 00:29:59 We still five months to go. Speaker 3 00:30:00 Yeah, it's like eight races but 18 races in already. Um, following this coverages on nbc, so no more Fox, it switches to NBC following the break all the way through the rest of the year. Nice. Speaker 2 00:30:14 Well Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this week at Sonoma and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:30:19 Best of luck, FA Nation.

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