Episode 8

April 01, 2023


Toyota Owners 400 DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Toyota Owners 400 DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Toyota Owners 400 DFS Preview

Apr 01 2023 | 00:38:29


Show Notes

Matt Selz is joined by Edward Raus to break down the slate and strategy, with some betting talk, following the rained-out qualifying for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on Sunday, April 2.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 And what's up folks? It's another edition of the NASCAR DFS podcast. Uh, I am Matt Sells, I'm hosting this week because guess what, our boy Dan Malin, he has some personal stuff taken care of this week. Uh, so alongside me, I'm not riding solo on this journey. We got Ed Rales is making his first appearance this year, uh, on the DFS podcast for us. So how you doing there, Mr. Rouse? Speaker 3 00:00:46 Oh, the sales man. I'm doing, uh, really good. Uh, I can't wait to jump into this. I'm little, uh, the longest road race of all time. I, I feel like last week, but <laugh>, it was fun to watch. It was fun to watch at least. And I'm looking forward to this weekend. Let me tell you, I know the rain has not been our friend so far, but I say let's jump into it and get the people what they want, the picks to win. Speaker 2 00:01:07 Yeah, you, uh, you brought it up there off the, off the bat. First of all, the, uh, you know, practice and qualifying for all the Xfinity and Cup were pr were, uh, canceled on Saturday morning, which we kind of figured would be the case from about Wednesday on since the forecast started at 50% rain and only got higher, uh, as the morning went. Um, so both of those were canceled. Both were set with the formula. The Xfinity race is expected to go off about on time. Uh, we are recording this podcast. It's 1240 in the afternoon, Eastern Time Saturday at the moment. So we're within about a half hour or so of the Xfinity race starting or when it's scheduled to start. Um, so the fields were set based on the formula, which kind of stinks, especially for the cup race, cuz we're getting more chalk than I think we probably deserved based on the pricing. Uh, if things had played out, I think it would've been a more interesting slate to set for. Um, but when we hopped on our first, both of us had the first sets of chalk that popped right out to us. Mine was Christopher Bell and yours was no shocker, but your favorite driver, <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:02:23 Of course, it was Ryan Blaney, just, I could not believe he was 8,800. I Yeah, I mean, you could literally build around those two drivers and pretty much have like the chalkies lineup here, uh, for Richmond. So, um, it stand out to me only because he's fast at these type of tracks, um, last couple times here and j just the price under nine grand and, and because of last week he's starting 17th. So the PD is there as well, Speaker 2 00:02:49 Right? That's the thing to keep in mind. The formula is based off of last week's race mostly. And then there's some fast laps in there and then there's point standings, which by the way, the Hendrick guys got a big boost there this week when their appeal was rescinded and they all got their points back and Larson moved back up to like second or something in the standings. Um, so we've got Bowman on the pole, we got Kyle bus on the front row, um, which again makes things very interesting because they were not exactly priced up this week coming into things. Um, so, you know, the, we're we're gonna talk kind of the way we've, we've been doing these podcasts, do a little bit of a sleep breakdown, not really a whole lot of focus on specific drivers, even though we just mentioned two of them. Speaker 2 00:03:36 Um, so we're gonna go with strategy, how we're approaching this slate, how we're building for Richmond, not having seen the cars on track. Um, this being only the second race with this arrow package on the cars. And oh by the way, they have wet tires now. Ooh. Not that they will go racing in the rain, but it's more so if the track is damp when they start, then they can start on wet tires and then as it dries up they will switch to slicks. So it will save a little bit of time in track drying. Um, but don't expect if a deluge happenss, they're not gonna be out there. Cuz there's no way you're driving <laugh> around a short track in that much spray. That's not happening. Definitely not. Um, so first things first, do you, you're mainly a G P P player, right? Correct. Speaker 2 00:04:26 Yes. Yes. Um, I would say that based off of how this slate sets up, I'm playing more GPP this week as well. Um, there's too much chalk on this slate right now. A lot, yes. To comfortably play cash and know that I would've a lineup that would at least give me two x back. Um, you might hit the money line, but there's gonna be a lot of ties cuz there's, there's some pretty popular lineups that we can build <laugh> here. Um, just with, with pd, um, and getting ourselves a share of some lap led leaders. Like Bowman's not that expensive. He's starting on the poll. Kyle Bush is not prohibitively priced. He's also starting on, you know, front row, even building around William Byron starting third. Shouldn't necessarily be that hard at 11,000, um, on dk obviously he's also highly priced on FanDuel, but that's a lot easier to work around. Speaker 2 00:05:27 Um, so I'm with you. I'm, I'm looking more towards GPP just to get welcome to the club. Welcome to the club, just to get a little different, um, with the builds, try some different, uh, you know, ways to attack this slate because let, let's start things off with, Richmond is a three quarter of a mile short track that's relatively flat, right? It's nickname is the action track except for the fact that we haven't really seen a whole lot of action here the last several races. It's been kind of hard to pass. Um, that being said, I do like what we saw in the package of Phoenix. There was some passing during the race there. Um, Richmond is a tire management track too. There's some tire wear here. Um, which you know, is kind of akin to I would say homestead and maybe it's not gonna be quite to the level of Darlington or auto club, but it's kind of on the level of homestead. Um, which if we get green flag runs, you know, tire wear could come into play here. So with that being said, we don't want to go full pd, but we also don't want to go full front of the, you know, front of the pack here. Um, for our fields, Speaker 3 00:06:45 It's, it's a good week to go 50 50, right? Get yes. Three guys on top the way it's priced, three guys on, you know, in the top five that are starting the top 10 and just go three guys towards the back and just see what happens. It's a great week for that. Speaker 2 00:06:58 Yeah. So if we look at the last 10 races, um, from Richmond, from a track level standpoint, um, and just see where the winners have come from. It's kind of an interesting breakdown here. Cause the only two of the last, and sorry, three of the last 10 winners have come from inside the top five and none of them have been on the front row. So three, four and five have wins here, but you've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 wins from double digits, um, from double digits starting spots here, including, uh, when Kyle Bush won from 32nd, which I don't think is gonna happen this year. That was kind of a fluky fluky thing. So we say there's not a lot of passing, but then guys can win from double digits. What is that like? Are you still looking at win equity for guys starting like 10th through 20th? Speaker 3 00:08:04 Uh, yes I am and there's one I like that's just outside the top 10 that I think will be a really, really good play, uh, this week as well in, in, in Hamlin. So I think he has a really good chance to win from that 11 spot. Um, and price, not too bad really. And, and there's other guys in, in that area too. I do like, um, trying to see if I could find one here that, that sticks out besides just putting that them in a gpp. But Speaker 2 00:08:31 By the way, last April then Hamlin started at 13th and he won that race, Speaker 3 00:08:37 Correct? He was really fast on this track. Both. He, Speaker 2 00:08:40 He closed the gap pretty seriously in the closing laps there, um, last year. By the way, also of note, uh, in the last 10 races, Toyota has won this race six times. Speaker 3 00:08:53 Wow. Okay. Speaker 2 00:08:55 Board has won twice and Chevy has won twice. But there have been, cause we had Kyle Bush in back to back in 2018 and then we had Truex back to back in 2019. And then we had Truex win in September of 2021 and Hamlin win in April of 2022. So J g R is very well represented at this track, which is fitting since it's the Toyota owners 400. They got that big old inflatable Toyota sign down the back stretch here. Uh, too, Speaker 3 00:09:28 You're, you're making me really like Briscoe at 19. Now, just from saying that, I don't know why <laugh>, but I mean the 19 spot you get the PD and the chances to win at 7,800. I mean gp Speaker 2 00:09:41 I mean he did start, he did start 24th in Phoenix and finish seventh. Speaker 3 00:09:45 Correct. Speaker 2 00:09:46 And Phoenix is a relatively comparable track. Obviously it's a mile, not three quarters of a mile, but the shape is relatively the same. Um, driving style is pretty close. I have the same arrow package on the car. So, um, yeah, Briscoe, is Briscoe's intriguing? Speaker 3 00:10:05 Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I was just Toyota. He's in that 11 to 20 range. He's right. I, I just like it for a gp. He'll probably be low owned. Um, I don't know. I'm gonna, I'm gonna pepper him in a little Speaker 2 00:10:18 Bit. Well so here's the thing. If you like Kevin Harvick Speaker 3 00:10:21 Yes. Which everyone will Speaker 2 00:10:23 He'll be, which everybody does coming in right? For good reason, he's been dominant here. He's the defending winner, not of this specific race, but the last time we came to Richmond, Kevin Harvick won. Um, he's been a COFA basically all week across the sports books, which is interesting to me. Now you get a little bit of PD with him at 10. So if you like him and you're targeting PD with another Ford in Eric Amar who's starting 32nd, I think Briscoe mid-tier starting 19th, I think you could find some value there cuz you also have Suarez at 8,100 who's starting 20th. You've got Josh Barry in the nine car starting 30th, who is a very good short track racer, right? And he's 7,900. Briscoe is 78, you have Almar at 76, you got Ty Gibbs starting 14th 73rd, which probably doesn't get a whole lot of attention. But Austin Dylan in 7,200 has been very intriguing over the last like year and a half at these shorter flatter tracks. So I think Brisco's in a nice little pocket where you may not get that much attention. Speaker 3 00:11:37 Yeah. And but Austin Dylan, man, I'm just not happy with the way he's produced so far this season in general too. So, ugh. I may be off him a Speaker 2 00:11:47 Little bit, believe a sour taste in your mouth. But he did put up 41 points. <laugh>, I mean clearly, right? He finished 20th after starting 13th in Atlanta and then finished 33rd while starting 28th at the road course and didn't even really make it, uh, out of stage one if I recall cor like it was a rough, rough race. However, Phoenix he started as in finished 16th. Speaker 3 00:12:13 Yeah, no. So he does have that going for him. Speaker 2 00:12:17 Does have that. He has a decent enough history here. Um, that makes him pretty, uh, pretty interesting as a flyer candidate sort of. I mean he has in the last 10 similar races, he's started an average of 21st and finished an average of 17th. Okay. Terrible for a guy that's not gonna cost you very much. Speaker 3 00:12:41 Yeah, that's not terrible at all. So, uh, but plus the name alone, he normally seems to be higher owned, Speaker 2 00:12:46 Right? Speaker 3 00:12:47 It should be. So I do like that and I probably fade him anyways for Briscoe, like I said, so, and like you said, so I think that's a good spot to get Briscoe at a good value price. And Dylan, he'll probably be in one or two of my 10 to 12 lineups, you know, maybe, but that's kind of where I'll stick to that. Speaker 2 00:13:04 All right. So here, I know we don't wanna really dive into a ton of, uh, driver talk, but I feel like there's only one guy that I'm off of above 10 K and that would be Kyle Larson. Speaker 3 00:13:23 Really? Please do explain. Speaker 2 00:13:25 I just don't think the value is, is there like he's either like sure at Phoenix he started first finished fourth, LED 200 something laps, right? And at Vegas he led 63 laps started six. Right? But like Richmond has not been one of his better places in general mm-hmm. <affirmative>, um, he tends to go backwards here more than he goes forward and I just feel like there's, there's more value elsewhere. Like at ten six, I'd rather pay $400 more for Byron, right? Speaker 3 00:14:09 Yeah, I would agree on that. Speaker 2 00:14:11 Could pay 200 bucks more for, for Harvick. I'd rather pay less for be, I'd rather pay less for Hammond. Speaker 3 00:14:24 Yeah, I could see that too. But at the same time, um, Larson for a g p you gotta throw him in there just from his name alone, right? Because especially what you're saying, a lot of people will be on the same type of thing. So I could see a low ownership for him at that price going up to Harv or Byron or going down to Bell or even Truex in that spot on DraftKings. I think I would take a flyer on him in a couple lineup because you never know with him because he's is one of the most drivers on in the field. But I think you're right that I wouldn't go crazy with him, but I'm not gonna fade him completely just for that reason. But yeah, Speaker 2 00:15:01 The other thing I wanna quickly touch on here is not necessarily taking driver stats here as the be all end all, because we have some drivers that have switched teams recently and you know, some of them changed manufacturer. So like, let's look at Tyler Renick, right? <laugh> Reddick and rcr RCR has struggled at Richmond at shorter flat air tracks. There's no, there's not really any way around it. They have struggled to get top tens here consistently. I know we just talked about Austin Dylan. No, I don't expect him to have a top 10, but starting where he is starting, there's PD upside, right? Um, you know, Tyler Reddick, if you look at his short flat tracks, uh, in the last 10 when he's basically been in an RCR car for all of those, except for Phoenix where he finished third, there is one top five out of the last nine prior to Phoenix. Speaker 3 00:16:07 Mm. He's coming in hot too. His last four races, Speaker 2 00:16:10 He, he's starting to figure out the Toyota, right? And we already talked about the Toyota has won six of the last 10 here, right? So Reddick, he's starting fifth, he's now in a Toyota. He's outta the RCR Kyle bus on the front row. He's now in an RCR car. Kyle Bush has been very good on short flat tracks. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, right? Mm-hmm <affirmative>. He was in a Toyota prior to that at Phoenix. He did. Okay. Started ninth, finished eighth, um, Bo fastest laps. Not terrible, but he's in an RCR car and we just talked about how RCR has struggled at the shorter flat air tracks for a little while. Okay. Klowski is another guy who's intriguing to me. Cuz if you look at his overall history here or at at shorter flatter tracks, it's not really anything to write home about. Right? Except for the fact that RFK has been pretty good at short flat tracks over the same time span. We've been comparing J G R and RCR and whatnot. Rosh has been pretty good, right? Bush's starting a little high for my liking to be honest at seventh. But Speaker 3 00:17:29 Yes, Speaker 2 00:17:30 Klowski, you know, going from Ford of Penske, which aside from uh, Blaney's fastness at these tracks, <laugh> speed hasn't really been outstanding, but for some reason Rosh has been. So those are some things that we might want to take into account as some guys changing, changing teams and that their records may not exactly follow suit. Speaker 3 00:18:02 Yeah, I'm with you. But I'm just, I've never been a, a, a bit Keslowski fan to begin with for a while. Even when he was on Penske and even in dfs, he's one of those guys too that every time I play him straight trash, but then when I don't play him, uh, like two weeks ago, finish the second and it's like, come on man, come on. So, but I can see where you're coming from man. He does have a good history on these type of tracks, so I may throw him in one, but I just expect that one to just completely bomb <laugh>. Thanks Brad. Speaker 2 00:18:34 I mean there's a reasonable bomb rate <laugh> wait cash, right? I'm not gonna say Speaker 3 00:18:41 <laugh>. Can we use that now? A bomb rate certain guy <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:18:46 I mean you can make a for that, right? Be honest, he went bad for in Phoenix, but I wasn't all that high on playing him starting fourth. Like there was <laugh>, it was kind of a shock to see him starting fourth, um, starting 24th. If he pulls off the same finish as he did at Phoenix, then there's positive PD upside there, so, you know mm-hmm. <affirmative>, there's that. Yeah. Um, I don't know what to make of the track house guys right now. They don't Speaker 3 00:19:13 Either. Speaker 2 00:19:13 Yeah. Uh, they seem to dislike each other at this point given what Suarez did on pit road and then the words that they had after the race. Um, Speaker 3 00:19:26 Yeah, I'm not really odd in either one of them, um, this week to be honest. Um, I am worried a little bit about the Hamlin Chastain thing still now that what happened just recently. So, but Suarez like he's just not been great, uh, to start this season at all. So I'm kind of off of him until he proves that he could do something. Speaker 2 00:19:48 Yeah, agree. Like he had a good run at Daytona, but like that's a crapshoot, so who cares. Yeah. He had a good run at Auto Clubb, but again, he was faster last year and then since then it's been progressively worse. Finishes basically. Yeah. Um, so yeah, so I think the, the strategy we're going with this week is, look, we're targeting maybe one or two lap led dominators Yep. Here, right? Cuz you're gonna need 'em. There's 400 laps. Um, so there's, there's quite a bit of laps to, to uh, get credit for in terms of dominator points. Um, and then we're going with some PD plays. Now we're not going with guys who are starting super far back, right? Speaker 3 00:20:35 Not this week, no. Speaker 2 00:20:36 Yeah, you can put maybe one of 'em in there and hope that they move up, right? Alma roll is probably gonna be a pretty popular dude for doing that. Maybe Ryan Priest. Um, but in general we're targeting guys that you think can pull off top 15 finishes cuz that's probably what it's gonna take, um, your entire lineup to basically finish in the top 15 in order to see some, some pretty nice cash here. So, um, we don't have to, I know we talked a lot about Toyota doing well here. We don't have to go full Toyota stack. All right. You know, get a couple of 'em. Sure. Um, but you know, we're not going full Toyota stack and, and just be weary that we haven't seen these cars on the track, right? So just because somebody did well at Phoenix doesn't necessarily mean that they're gonna bring that the same setup is gonna do well at Richmond. We still have to weigh what these guys have done elsewhere. We still have to weigh what their team has done at this track typically. Um, so yeah, but I would gear it more towards gpp. Speaker 3 00:21:51 Yeah, let's go <laugh>. I want fa winner to win that a hundred K this week. We're gonna do it right? Speaker 2 00:21:57 Yeah, you were, you were pretty close last week, right? Speaker 3 00:22:00 Two weeks ago. Yeah, I was uh, in the number one spot until Larson went down in that one and uh, I was, I knew it though cuz man, I hate looking at those mid-race and going uhoh, <laugh>, I don't wanna be this high already. That's not good. And then sure enough out of it, so, but I, you know, I've still got a pretty good chunk that week. So hopefully the same thing happens this week for me and all of you out there in the FA nation as well. So Speaker 2 00:22:27 Yeah, it'd be sweet to have a, uh, to have a take down here and this is gonna be another week where you're probably gonna have to hate your lineups for them to wind up doing Speaker 3 00:22:36 Absolutely hate them and the one you hate the most, that's the one that's gonna have the most chance <laugh>. No, Speaker 2 00:22:41 That's not to say build only lineups that you hate because there is the off chance at the one that you like does wind up hitting. But you know, don't, don't be afraid to get, you know, to, to pivot off of some guys, let's say you really like Blaney, well pivot off of him to Reddick at some point, right? I Speaker 3 00:23:00 Like that too. Yeah, I was uh, I Speaker 2 00:23:02 Like that. Um, like let's say that you like brisket, don't be afraid to pivot off of him for like Bury al Marola, right? Like there are pivots out there for basically everybody. Let's say you got a bunch of Larson, don't be afraid to pivot to Hark, Speaker 3 00:23:21 Right? Yeah. You should be looking to pivot up or pivot up to Har try to say that three times fast. Geez. From Larson instead of down to Bell in that case cuz Bell would be way too properly owned and yeah, I Speaker 2 00:23:32 Like that. Right? Let's say, let's say you're building, like you've got a, a decent amount of Kyle Bush and Bowman cuz you're going after last lead dominators. Don't be afraid to pivot to Logano who's right between them in price and gives you pd. Um, you know, you're gonna need lap lead. It's not always gonna come from the pole, it's gonna come from somebody starting in the top five, almost assuredly, um mm-hmm <affirmative> for at least early lap lead. And don't forget we have stage breaks back last week, yay. Road course this week we have stage breaks back, which by the way, after watching a bunch of these stage break races for like, I don't know, the last five years or whatever. Weird. It was weird. It was very weird to see points. It was weird awarded without a guy stopping. It was, it was weird. And I'm not sure that it ultimately changed the race strategy that much, but like <laugh> Speaker 3 00:24:27 It was really weird and I was like, oh, this will be a shorter race. No <laugh> Speaker 2 00:24:31 Well it would've been if, if people hadn't wrecked on the three overtime, but like, like Reddick pitted one extra time and still one. So I'm not sure that strategy, like the stage breaks and whatever really changed that much. I don't, I I don't know there was enough caution breaks to <laugh> not, don't think anybody would've noticed a stage break. Speaker 3 00:24:55 <laugh>. Yeah, definitely. Speaker 2 00:24:58 Um, Speaker 3 00:24:58 What's a before we go Yeah, what's a good bet? Like what's the best bet that you have for this week? I'll, mine is, I'll give you mine too. Speaker 2 00:25:05 Yours is Blaney. Speaker 3 00:25:06 Nope, mine's Chase Briscoe plus 700 top five finish. Speaker 2 00:25:14 Okay. I can't f for a plus 700 on a top five. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. That's not bad. We're citing these off a DK by the way for those interest. Yep. Um, I did my best bets piece or my pick wise bedding piece on Friday. I have Byron in there cuz he was the, um, or sorry I had Harv in there. Um, co favorite, um, I had Sea Bell who I love this week. Of course starting 21st puts a little damper on it, but you know, it's all right. You're getting better odds now than you were yesterday on Sea Bell. So it's plus 800 to win. Um, Bowman's going off at 15 to one from the poll right now, which is, Speaker 3 00:25:58 Hmm, that's intriguing. Speaker 2 00:26:00 I mean the polls that are hasn't won in 10 in 10 trips here. Neither is the guy starting second, the guy starting third is one elevens guy starting fourth is one, ones guy starting fifth, his one ones. So Tyler Reddick's going off at 15 to one the same as Alex Bond at 15 to one and Chastain is also 15 to one. So no <laugh>. Um, uh hmm. That's, I don't Christopher Bell going off of like plus one 10 or whatever for you know, one 15 or so for a top five. I I pretty well like that. I mean if you look at Christopher Bell's last four races at this similar tracks win second win sixth. Speaker 3 00:26:59 So we're pretty much saying don't put 'em in your DFS last because you're gonna be too popular, but bet on 'em. Speaker 2 00:27:04 Well, I mean I would've some exposure cuz if he does what we're expecting him to do, then you're Speaker 3 00:27:08 Gonna be Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. Yeah, Speaker 2 00:27:10 To cash. Um, I don't driver props they change the, um, I don't know the, the matchups are interesting to me. Like they have bell even money against Harvick who's negative money on DK for the matchups. Ooh. But then they have Bell and Hamlin with the exact same odds both minus one 10. Speaker 3 00:27:36 That makes sense. Yeah, they're both e like pretty much equal in all the betting sites as well. Speaker 2 00:27:41 Yeah, they have Larson even money against Harvick. Speaker 3 00:27:48 Ooh. Oh I may want to take Harvick in that one. Speaker 2 00:27:51 <laugh>. Yeah, it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world to do that. Um, I have, okay, let's, would you take, you're gonna take Blay at plus money over Chastain, right? Speaker 3 00:28:06 I would yeah. Cuz you got Blay at what, 1800 and Chastain at 1500, Speaker 2 00:28:13 Right? And Blaney going off at 21 to 20, which is what? Plus 1 0 5. Speaker 3 00:28:18 Yeah, I would take that Speaker 2 00:28:19 To Chastain at four to five, which is what, minus 1 25. Speaker 3 00:28:25 Yeah, I plenty all day right there. Speaker 2 00:28:28 Yeah, I probably would too. Um, it's just kind of interesting how they, how they set out these whatever matchups. Speaker 3 00:28:38 I like it. Like sometimes I see when that's too good to be true and you and you and you play it and then you're like uhoh <laugh>, it's too good to be true and one of 'em crashes out or, so it's always the ones that uh, I like the close ones. I feel you have your best chance of actually winning like the Blaney Chastain, you know, but like the Harv and Larson one scares me now because that is almost too good to be true, um, in this type of format and race. But yeah, I like it. Speaker 2 00:29:06 I mean they're starting basically next to each other in the starting grid, right? Speaker 3 00:29:10 Yeah. So you might as well take the, the plus money of like, it just seems obvious to me, but Speaker 2 00:29:16 Yeah. Um, Bowman Logano is an interesting bet. Speaker 3 00:29:25 Bowman and Logano, what is their matchup? Speaker 2 00:29:27 So Bowman's four to five Logano is 21, 20, so Speaker 3 00:29:30 L uh, same as Blaney and Chastain pretty much, right? Speaker 2 00:29:34 Pretty close. Pretty close. It uh, it is identical. Yes. Speaker 3 00:29:38 Yeah. So, and you got Bowman starting on the pole and Logano, where's he starting? Uh, but he, he's been fast this year man. He, like, he always seems to find a way to get his car up there almost in every race this year. Um, and I probably expect him to do the same thing this time. Speaker 2 00:29:57 If we're going off of Phoenix, Logano started 16th and finished 11th there, right? Bowman started 18th and finished ninth. Speaker 3 00:30:09 So you would take B Bowman in that, in this matchup. Speaker 2 00:30:14 I just, I just think you have to take the fact that I don't see bow falling all that far back. Speaker 3 00:30:22 Okay. Speaker 2 00:30:23 And so if Bowman falls to fifth Lao's gotta go from 18th to fourth. Speaker 3 00:30:31 Yeah, I could. Yeah. So maybe, Speaker 2 00:30:33 Right, like if, if you're envisioning both getting in the top 10, Logano has more work to do than Bowman in that regard. Speaker 3 00:30:43 Correct. So maybe you do just take what is a little bit of a less risk with Bowman, right? For pretty much identical to the Lenny Chastain. So maybe you do go Bowman there man. Now we just went from DFS to straight matchup <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:31:02 That's fine. Don't have a problem with it. Speaker 3 00:31:04 I love doing it. Yeah. It's one of my favorite things to do. Speaker 2 00:31:07 <laugh>. I I think it's, I think the top five bets are interesting that only three guys are negative money on top fives on dk, um, Speaker 3 00:31:15 Yeah, Larson, Harvick and then Byron is, Speaker 2 00:31:18 Yeah. And then you get plus money for Hamlin for a top five. Speaker 3 00:31:21 Yeah. That's pretty nasty. That's almost too safe of a bet for plus um, Speaker 2 00:31:28 I mean Bowman starting on the pole is still plus money for a top five. Speaker 3 00:31:32 He's a plus two 10, which is a nice value at that. Uh, I I don't like the Chastain top five at all. Reddick's intriguing. Speaker 2 00:31:43 She is only cuz it's not rcr, right? Yeah, Speaker 3 00:31:47 Yeah, exactly. Um, not touching sores with a 10 foot, uh, Speaker 2 00:31:53 No Speaker 3 00:31:53 11 foot pole. Um, Briscoe plus 700 just still sticks out to me as a, as a really good value. Like, Speaker 2 00:32:00 I mean you're getting Briscoe at plus 700 for a top five, but Josh Barry is plus 500 starting for <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:32:10 I Speaker 2 00:32:11 Just saw that, Speaker 3 00:32:12 Sorry, I'm laughing this totally cuz that if, if you put a bet on that and that hits kudos to you my friend cuz that is Speaker 2 00:32:19 <laugh>. It's also not enough return for Josh Barry top five <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:32:26 Wow. Okay. Speaker 2 00:32:27 I get he's in the nine car and I get that we all love the Hendrick, you know. Speaker 3 00:32:36 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:32:37 Stuff but like to be honest, even Chase in the nine car only put up three top fives in the last nine races in this car and it's Chase Elliot. Speaker 3 00:32:47 Mm-hmm. <affirmative> cost him a championship, that car pretty much, um, Speaker 2 00:32:52 Well Chastain cost him a championship. Speaker 3 00:32:55 <laugh> also that too. Yeah. And even I'm looking at Josh Barry. Ugh. Speaker 2 00:33:01 I mean why is Barry across the board better odds than Briscoe? Speaker 3 00:33:05 Uh, I think because a, he's in the nine but we don't uh, but still Speaker 2 00:33:10 Brisco like getting a short track guy and he's in the Xfinity race, but like he hasn't done anything in the nine car to make you believe that he's, all he's doing is getting a feel for it. Speaker 3 00:33:20 Well two weeks ago he did have, well that's, he had a top that would be great salt. Well yeah, a top 10 bean 10th. Speaker 2 00:33:28 Right. Also he started 17th, now he's starting 30th. Speaker 3 00:33:32 Uh, and then on the Pennzoil 400 he started 32nd and, and finished 29th <laugh>. So, um, although that was his first race in the nine, so we'll give him a little bit of credit there. Speaker 2 00:33:44 You can find top 10 bets for Josh Berry. I don't know if <laugh> what the lines are, Speaker 3 00:33:49 Dude, they, they may be negative if a top five is five plus 500. Geez. Speaker 2 00:33:54 <laugh>, I mean I can only go, I can only pull odds from DK cuz I'm in a state where it's not legal to bet and DK lets me see the odds without actually betting everybody else has 'em behind the state like legality wall. Um, and to be fair, DraftKings doesn't exactly have the best props or or whatnot out there. Um, Speaker 3 00:34:18 Plus 500 for a top five for Barry. That is insane. Briscoe plus Speaker 2 00:34:22 $700. I really don't get like Ryan Blaney who in the last 10 short track races, his average finish is sixth is going off at plus two 50 and Josh Barry's twice that starting <laugh> Speaker 3 00:34:37 Doesn't make any sense Speaker 2 00:34:38 Twice as far back basically. Speaker 3 00:34:41 Yeah. You, you know what's gonna happen now sell, Speaker 2 00:34:45 I swear got him. He goes off <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:34:48 It's gonna, it's gonna happen only because we uh, Sam smack talked it. But uh, that's, that's the way the cookie crumbles on these things. Speaker 2 00:34:54 I mean no disrespect to Josh Barry, he's quite a good racer. I love the story behind him that he basically took over a car and then wanted Martinsville and forced his way into a very good ride at the Xfinity level. That being said, he should not be better odds to win nor top five than Chase Briscoe. Speaker 3 00:35:15 Yeah. Which is why you take Chase Briscoe at the value Speaker 2 00:35:18 Boom. Yeah. Speaking of which, do we have a Josh Barry Chase, chase Briscoe matchup? Not, Speaker 3 00:35:24 Probably not. I doubt it. Well they are, they are next to, to each other in DraftKings uh, odds by the way, Josh Barry to win the race plus 4,000 Chase Briscoe plus 6,000. Speaker 2 00:35:36 Yeah. It's still take Briscoe <laugh> getting half wouldn't even been as much return. Like Speaker 3 00:35:44 Yeah, that's, that's insane. I'm not touching Bubba Wallace this week just because he's not been good. Um, so yeah, I think Briscoe at top five is your best value bed if I had to to look at it. No matchup for Barry versus Briscoe. Speaker 2 00:36:01 No, that's not a shocker. They're too relatively uh, yeah, more obscure guys to be betting in the first place. They don't bring in the money so DK isn't gonna put 'em on the board. Um, Alrighty. Well we have talked strategy, we have talked some drivers that we like and don't like. We have talked, uh, bets that we like and don't like and we have talked some weather by the way. I found it ironic that Kyle Weatherman was a weather casualty in the Xfinity race. He didn't <laugh>, he didn't do qualifying, he didn't get to race his way in. So he was, he did not qualify. Um, Speaker 3 00:36:39 And the dad joke of the day goes to Matt sell or his weather joke <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:36:44 Um, so we have the Xfinity race this afternoon trucks, by the way, Dan Maylan put out the playbook for trucks that is after the Xfinity race in a weird scheduling thing this weekend. I guess it's cuz it's central time and it's a longer race. I don't know. Um, and then we got cup cup racing on Sunday from Richmond. Um, if you wanna stay up overnight, F1 is racing in Australia overnight. That's it. Like 1:00 AM Eastern Green flag. Speaker 3 00:37:18 I'm good. Dvr <laugh> Speaker 2 00:37:21 Or I should say the lights out for f1. Yeah, <laugh>. Yeah. Um, I do have a bedding piece up there on Pix wise for f1. Well if you're interested in playing DFS I can answer some questions. I'm not doing content for it though. Um, but other than that let's go crush it this week. Uh, thanks for filling in quite admirably there Mr. Ralph. Speaker 3 00:37:44 No problem. Let's go Lenny, let's go Briscoe, let's go San Diego State baby. Let's go. Speaker 2 00:37:50 Yeah, <laugh>. Um, Speaker 3 00:37:52 Although who, if you listen to this tomorrow morning then you'll be like Ohoh. Yeah. They won or lost what's still Speaker 2 00:37:55 Right. Exactly. Um, I guess I'll go for San Diego State cuz I'm still better than F fa u knocked out my alma mater, but Speaker 3 00:38:01 There you go. There you go. Speaker 2 00:38:03 <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:38:03 I like it. Speaker 2 00:38:05 All righty. Well good luck nation and um, make sure to check out the playbook. This will be a top that there'll be court plays, projections will be out. We'll have the whole kit and caboodle, um, out on Saturday afternoon and evening. So good luck. Have a nation Speaker 3 00:38:21 Look at.

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