Episode 3

February 25, 2023


Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway Preview

Feb 25 2023 | 00:35:44


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz break down the slate, contest selection, and DFS strategy for a rain-soaked Pala Casino 400 following Cup Series practice and qualifying being canceled. Take a listen to how Matt and Dan are building their NASCAR DFS lineups for Auto Club.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine, Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? F Fa Nation, welcome back, den Maliner joined as always by the F S W A three time nascar. Ready? The writer of the year. Matt Sells. It is, uh, Saturday morning depending on where you all are. It. And uh, we have rain, torrential Rain at Auto Club Speedway pretty much all day Saturday. So Matt and I are recording this after it's been announced that practice in qualifying has been canceled for both the Cup and Xfinity series and the lineups have pretty much been set by the metric. Matt, before we dive into the DFS pool, how are you and what did you think of Daytona last week? Speaker 3 00:00:58 Uh, I'm good. I thought Daytona was a pretty good race overall. Um, I got my voice out on the, uh, commercial issues on Twitter, so we don't have to dive into that. It's been pretty well beaten to a dead horse. Um, but I thought overall it was a pretty good race. Uh, little sad I didn't have that much Ricky Stenhouse, uh, cuz he just shows up when you least expect it. Um, but yeah, I, you know, uh, it was, it was pretty good the started out. A little <laugh>, a little calmer than I think everybody thought it would. Um, but now heading into, uh, Fontana and Auto Club Speedway for the Palate Casino 400, would I have liked to have practice in qualifying? Sure, absolutely. Um, cause seeing the cars on track is always, uh, a good idea before we set the FS lineups. But uh, you know, it is what it is. Speaker 3 00:01:58 Weird, weird weather we, we've got going on. We've got blizzard warnings in San Diego and it's 75 degrees in New York in the middle of February, so it very <laugh> go home. Mother Nature, you're drunk. Um, but in this podcast, uh, for those that uh, hadn't heard previously, we're switching 'em to Saturdays unless of course it's like Talladega or Daytona. Um, so that we can give you more informed opinions on what we're doing with our builds. But we're also now gonna dive all that deep into a lot of different drivers because we have the playbook coming out Saturdays as well. So what we're gonna do in this one, we're gonna give you some, some strategies, how we see the slate, guys that we might be avoiding. Whether we're leaning in chalk, avoiding chalk, what contests we're playing. Uh, we might talk some specific guys, but overall not like a full driver breakdown like we typically do cuz you can just pair this with the playbook and get all the, uh, get all the knowledge you need. Speaker 2 00:02:59 So we'll just dive in. Um, we were talking about this right before we started recording. There's, there's no practice, there's no qualifying. Obviously we'd like to get cars on track, but more importantly I'm worried about the lack of rubber. Basically if you get Xfinity and Cobb doing practice and qualifying and then the Xfinity Series race on Saturday, which is now more than likely gonna be moved until Sunday, uh, Sunday night, there's gonna be no rubber on the track. It's really just you hope that these guys roll off the truck with the right setup. Um, last year when we were previewing Fontana, we thought that this is gonna be the very first look at what we should expect from the NextGen car. And obviously the Chevys looks good, the Fords had their ups and downs. Um, Kyle Larson won the race even though he didn't really, he maybe had like the fifth or sixth best car. Speaker 2 00:03:51 Yeah, the Toyotas had air filter, um, airflow issues all day long. They were overheating, yes, but tho that's a team and, and those two teams did come on strong as the season progressed and they finished very well with, you know, homestead, uh, Darlington as well. I guess what I'm getting to is, you know, the lineup is set by the metric. We're just kind of hoping that the drivers that we target roll off with the right setup. Are you playing cash games with all the chalk that's in the back? Because earlier this week in the Discord channel, I essentially posted what is gonna be the chalk cash lineup. Um, I'm not playing cash, I'm mostly just gonna play the chrome horn because I don't like the no practice, no qualifying. That's just me. Um, I will save my money for next week at Vegas while still getting exposure to this, but I just think it's why play cash games if you're only gonna get maybe 50 to 60% ROI if that chalk line hits. Speaker 3 00:04:42 Yeah. Um, on the uh, fantasy alarm show on Friday afternoon when I went on with Howard and Jim, uh, I stated that if I'm playing cash it's gotta be a huge double up or 50 50. It's gotta be like the biggest cash, uh, contest you can find simply to give yourself more wiggle room to hit the money line and at least get a little bit more back. Um, I've seen the same chalky cash lineup, uh, on Twitter about nine times this week since prices dropped. Given that like, you know, prices dropped on Wednesday, right? Yeah. So people started looking at things in the forecast was known, we all pretty well expected it to be a washout on Saturday. So people started building and I've seen literally nine different, uh, you know, NASCAR colleagues of ours tweeting the same lineup independently of each other that they built on, on dk. So if I'm going to play cash, it's gotta be a huge cash tournament or ca you know, huge cash contest. Um, as for gpp, are you playing large field or smaller field, like single entry or three entry max ones? Speaker 2 00:05:58 Uh, so I'm only gonna be doing the chrome horn. So that's the $4 20 max. It is still large field. Okay. Um, I think it's like 10 or 20 K to first. Uh, that's the only one I'm doing this week. Um, just because of the, the circumstances surrounding this particular schedule this weekend and even for Xfinity, I'm only doing the $1 20 max for the happy hour. Um, <laugh> that's a series that every time I play cash I'm always banging my head against the wall asking why I decided to play cash for Xfinity. So without practicing qualifying I have less confidence in uh, a lot of those teams rolling off with the right setup. So I'm only throwing 20 bucks, uh, at DK for the Xfinity race, but I'll, I'll max enter the Chrome horn and and see what happens. Speaker 3 00:06:39 Yeah, I'll kind of, I'm debating whether or not I should play smaller field GPP with single entry or three entry max ones to kind of avoid lineup trains. Mm-hmm <affirmative> or if I should play the larger, like I think the one 50 max enter ones are gonna be nothing but a lineup train fest. Like I think people are gonna enter basically the same two or three lineups and just do it 150 times. Yeah. And so you're not gonna get like any, like there's a hundred thousand dollars the first contest on DK this week. I would be shocked if the winner of that actually gets a hundred thousand. Like I think it's gonna be split a huge amount of ways. Um, so I'm kinda leaning more towards the one, the single entry or the three entry max contests, um, just because I feel like there's less chance of somebody taking 50 of their lineups and just entering the same lineup because if that lineup hits then they get a like a bigger return. Right. Right. Um, so that's kind of how I'm looking at it this week, um, in terms of contest selection, but I'm way more open to gpp cuz I think you can get a little bit more creative with GPP pills than than cash. Um, Speaker 2 00:08:06 Do we just want to dive into like the chalk that's absolutely starting at the back and what we should be setting our exposures to? Speaker 3 00:08:14 Well, so first let's talk a little bit about auto club. It is a high tire wear track. Uh, it's the oldest surface in NASCAR at this point I believe, unless Darlington is, Darlington might be a little older, but um, auto club in Darlington are very close in terms of tire wear and whatnot. If you're looking for a comparable track, Michigan is exactly a duplicate of Auto Club Speedway, a little higher banking, um, last hire where at Michigan than Auto Club. But it's the same two miles. And if you are looking for additional stance than what I'm providing in the playbook or whatnot, where you asked me, you know, this guy ran well here last year, I'm actually gonna look at what happened to compar at comparable tracks in the second half of last year rather than what happened at Auto Club uh, last year because this was the first race in the next gen car that we could actually take anything from because Daytona is always a wild card, doesn't matter what the package is. Yeah. The car, it doesn't, Speaker 2 00:09:16 Teams got better throughout the year, Speaker 3 00:09:17 Right? Like Kevin Harvick was so-so here last year, but then he won Michigan and then he did really well at Darlington. Right? Eric Jones was fast here, yes. But then he was also really good at Darlington. Okay. Um, but the Toyotas got way faster as the year went on. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, the Fords tended to get faster as the year went on. Right. So whatever they found as the year went on last year, they're gonna put in the car this year because now they have that base of knowledge. We also had tire issues last year. We had tires go flat, guys got stuck and we're like four laps down because I couldn't figure out how to jack a car up to fix a tire at the start of last year. Um, so in terms of that stuff, we're looking more towards the second half of last year rather than finished position, um, for this exact race last year, which is a little different than we normally do, but it's, you know, those circumstances. Speaker 3 00:10:17 So tire wear is gonna play a big role. Uh, guys that can take care of their tires over the long run are gonna be better here than normal. Uh, and uh, we are still concerned about weepers for Sunday. Uh, cuz it's an old track and there's a lot of water falling on it and Progress says they figure it's gonna take about three hours to dry the track. Um, so expect some weep precautions tomorrow they're gonna have to cut the uh, the track open and let water come out from behind it. So all that to uh, you know, set up who do we think the chalk is this week and whether we're leaning into it or straight up avoiding it? Speaker 2 00:10:58 Well I think that we can, I think we can just openly talk about this, this chalk cash lineup only because uh, we've seen it all over Twitter. I posted it in Discord. It is basically Chase Elliott, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Eric Jones, chase Briscoe and Justin Haley li with $400 left over in salary. They are all starting P 29 is Justin Haley. But like, you know, chase Burko is P 31, Byron P 32, Elliot 33 Jones 34 and Tyler Reddick is P 35. Uh, it is essentially just a PD build. Yep. All these guys in cash games should be at least 80% owned if I'm, and I when I just based on what I've seen in Xfinity and Truck Cash lineups, whenever you get just an easy PD play starting the Yeah, you plug 'em in and because of that they're probably gonna be 80 to 90% owned it. It wouldn't surprise me one Tyler Reddick's probably gonna be at least 92% owned in cash games. The thing is, is like you're not getting any leverage with this lineup, right? Like you are playing like, and you can say like, well if Justin Haley Rex like so what he's hurting 80% of the labs and I'm like sure, but you're basically building this lineup and plugging it into double ups assuming that you're only gonna get 50 to 60% ROI because that is just how popular the stupid lineup is gonna be. Speaker 3 00:12:17 Yep. It's a stack back strategy for cash, which we don't usually say at an intermediate <laugh>. Right. Speaker 2 00:12:24 But uh, for a tournament like which chalk of these six drivers and maybe even anyone else that's starting towards the back because you know, other drivers starting outside the top 20 include Kyle Bus, P 21, Ty Gibbs, Harrison Burton, Todd Gillen, Michael McDowell, Ryan Priest and Austin Dillon. Um, this is, this is what happens when you set a lineup based on what happens at Daytona the week before. Speaker 3 00:12:47 Yeah. So I guess here's my question for you. Would you be comfortable swapping Kyle Busch for Chase Elliot in a cash lineup, Speaker 2 00:12:58 Uh, based on the setup that Richard Childress racing had for the eight car last year? Yeah, I think I'd, I'd be okay with that. Speaker 3 00:13:06 Okay. What about Larson for Elliot in a cash lineup? Speaker 2 00:13:11 No, because I think we discussed before the pod why I'm not that excited about playing Larson this year. And I think that a lot of, or I didn't mean this year but this weekend. Um, but a lot of people are just gonna jump to Larson because he won this race a year ago when he, he didn't have the best car. Um, and overall it did just seem like a relatively down year for Kyle Larson and people are gonna look at him as a driver with win win equity, which he does have. They're gonna see the deposition differential. I just don't know how viable the top line is gonna be until the third stage of the race. Speaker 3 00:13:48 So here's my question to hit five x, which is what we're looking for in a typical cash build, right? He needs 54 points. He can get that without leading very many laps. Speaker 2 00:14:04 I know Speaker 3 00:14:06 That's the, Speaker 2 00:14:07 He basically does it with a top three finish and no dominator points. Speaker 3 00:14:11 Right. So that's, that's what I'm wanting. Like do you pivot from now Chase still has higher upside cuz he is starting 15 spots, 18 spots further back. But if you want to get a little less chalky you could swap out Larson or Elliot four Larson and still have money cuz they're only $300 difference. So I'm with you. I also don't think I'm playing Larson in a G P P Speaker 2 00:14:45 I think that I can probably see myself. Yeah Speaker 3 00:14:48 You need him to get Dominator point. Speaker 2 00:14:51 Correct. And you don't want five x from him in, in a gpp you want closer to like seven x Speaker 3 00:14:57 Right. And seven X at 10.8 is what another 21 75, 76 70, Speaker 3 00:15:05 Yeah. 75 or so points. And to do that he's gotta lead a chunk of laps or get an like a bunch of fastest laps plus you need the pd. Right. Um, so there is concern that he's gonna wear his tires out faster trying to get the top groove to come in because he didn't have the chance to wear it in in practice or have the Xfinity guys go and work it in. Um, so there is that concern for me with Larson. So I'm with you. I mean is he in the playbook? Yes. I can't not put him in the playbook, right? He's two mile Kyle, but does that mean that I have a whole lot of shares of him? No, not so much. Speaker 2 00:15:52 Have you done your playbook yet or no? Speaker 3 00:15:54 Uh, I have picked the drivers most of them. Okay. Speaker 2 00:15:58 Still, I mean for me when I was writing the Xfinity Playbook I could say like it was hard to not put basically everyone in the field. Like I wanted to write up Josh Barry and Sam Mayer more cuz they're gonna, I think they're Josh Barry is, especially because like he's always a dark horse candidate to win. Right. And he's also just starting just inside the top 20. But then again there's like, there's Ross Chastain who's starting dead last for the Xfinity Series racing. Speaker 3 00:16:22 Well so here's my question about that because if it's a double excuse the background noise I'm putting in a cough drop, um, getting over her cult, um, if it's truly a double header chastain's running the cup race, do you have any concern about fatigue for some of the guys doing the the double header? Speaker 2 00:16:51 I don't think I'd wanna put fatigue in it. Like I'm more concerned just about the equipment that Chastain's gonna be in for the Xfinity race. It's not bad equipment and he's a really good driver and obviously he can still pilot his way through the field and get that car to finish, you know, between 10th and 15th. I just wonder if the D G M car that he's gonna be in, if, if that can maybe be a top five car, can he like somehow win with that car? Because last year he ran three road courses and I understand road courses are a completely different animal. He ran three road courses with D G M and only had one top five and then the other two finishes were outside the top 10. So I have faith in him, I think he'll be fine. Um, and and we still don't know like if it's actually gonna be a double header tomorrow night. Speaker 2 00:17:40 Uh, so I don't think I'm gonna weigh fatigue too much. And for what it's worth, Tyler Reddick and also Austin Dylan are also running the Xfinity race, uh, whenever it's rescheduled. So I'm not really weighing fatigue so much. Um, and he still made my Xfinity playbook and I think he's great for cash games but I would try to be underweight for tournaments. I just think it's a good leverage spot. It's basically, you know, he is what Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, uh, William Byron and Ty Loretta, he is what they will be for the Cup race. I think Denny Hamlin's in a great, uh, leverage spot in the upper tier and I can't wait to play Denny because I think that you're getting win equity there. I think a lot of people will be scared away by how bad the Toyotas were here a week ago or a year ago, not a week ago. Um, so I, I love Denny Hamlin. I think he's starting P 13 to potentially, yes there's PD obviously, but I think that there's enough win equity. Um, and I, you know, he can manage tires pretty well. Speaker 3 00:18:39 Yeah, I think there's a few sneaky guys starting in the top 10, uh, for the Cup series. I think Kevin Harvick is a guy that's not getting a lot of chatter. Speaker 2 00:18:49 So here's the thing, I actually wanted to ask you this when we were talking about the track, uh, sorry to cut you off, but so we talked about the comparable tracks being Homestead and Darlington, but also and Michigan and Michigan Homestead and Darlington in terms of like track and tire wear and all that. Right? But there are also like shorter high tire wear tracks like Dover and Richmond and Kevin Harvick won Richmond last year. He would dominate the old Atlanta setup when Atlanta had arguably the oldest surface. Right. And so do we just kind of have to give Kevin Harvick recognition just because like it's it's his D G F tour, uh, and historically he's been great on high tire war tracks in general. Speaker 3 00:19:28 Yep. That's basically my play with with Harvick. I wrote him up uh, as a bet. I think he's going off at 20 to one on dk uh, or was as a Friday afternoon. Um, he's just really good at getting the most out of his car in high tire wear situations. He won Michigan, that's where they started to show the speed. Um, did really well at Darlington. Um, you know, one a shorter but still high tire wear, track enrichment. So yeah, that's, that's what I'm going with with Harvick Plus I think you get a little bit of leverage. He's starting 10th so it's not like, it's not like he has to do anything spectacular. He is basically mid-tier. Speaker 2 00:20:12 He's only 8,500 that's, he's just above the average price tag. Speaker 3 00:20:16 So if he moves up like three spots you get value outta him. <laugh> like <laugh>, like why wouldn't I look at Kevin Harvick at that point? Um, one guy that I think you and I are split on maybe is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Speaker 2 00:20:33 Oh I don't think we're split. Speaker 3 00:20:35 So he's starting second. Speaker 2 00:20:37 Yeah, Speaker 3 00:20:39 But I'm not intrigued by him at at all. Speaker 2 00:20:42 I think we're on the same boat just for different reasons. Speaker 3 00:20:45 Yeah, so the reason I am has nothing to do with his driving ability or the car, which is clearly good enough to win a race since he just won Daytona. But having won Daytona, the man has gotten almost no sleep this week. If you follow him on Twitter, he was out partying for a while. He went to Waffle House like in the middle of the morning. He had an early morning interview the following day at the track with Fox Sports. Then he went and did the morning shows in New York like they typically do. And then he went to Chicago to go do promotional stuff for the Chicago Road race. Um, and has not a lot of sleep nor is it a lot of time to get in the simulator and prep with his team and whatever else. And I just didn't really like the car at High Tire wear tracks last year either, but more so it's, he was gifted a P two starting spot cuz he did well last week and he may hold the spot for a little bit to start the race, but I I I'm not sure he winds up finishing in the top 10. Speaker 2 00:21:53 I just, um, I think the, I mean the pros with Stenhouse are gonna be that the team nailed this setup here last year. The car was great. He worked his way up to the field I think twice and he, and he secured a good finish. I just, when I'm looking at this from I guess a race flow perspective with all the guys that are coming up, uh, from behind him and given the fact that, you know, he could lead early on in this race, even though I'm, I'm more confident in Christopher Bell dominating the first stage, but there is a very narrow path to optimal lineup for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. This week. Just cuz he is starting second, 7,100 is a great price tag. Um, I just don't know, I I it's, I'm basically just trying to say like it's far more likely and everybody would agree with this, that he's gonna go backward and probably finish outside the top 10 and just cost you points with the negative pd. Um, when there are guys p priced around him like Jones and Briscoe as we've already talked about. Um, but then, you know, we also have Ryan Priest and you know, I could, I'd probably just go with those guys over him and just look for PD and then you know, find cheaper guys that I think can go ahead and and get some dominator points. Speaker 3 00:23:12 I would agree, I would agree on that. I think there's a better shot, um, for sea ball at 9,500 to hit value than there is for stenhouse at 7,100 to hit value even though they're starting next to each other. Um, Speaker 2 00:23:27 I'm trying to look up last year's race cuz I, I think what you, when we discussed before the podcast that Austin Cindrich was in the exact same spot that Stenhouse is in this week and I'm just trying to see how his day went last year at Fontana. Speaker 3 00:23:40 Yeah, if I remember correctly, he got, he had some tire issues or a pit Speaker 2 00:23:46 Started first finished 12th, one fastest lap to his name, you know, 94.3 driver rating but still on the front row finished outside the top 10 probably, if I'm guessing was priced around the same as Stenhouse is this week. So I don't know it great leverage spot, but I'd feel better if he was starting maybe fourth or fifth row. I don't love that he's on the front row and he's more than likely going backwards. Speaker 3 00:24:13 Yeah, and by the way, if you look at um, the uh, total speed ratings across intermediate tracks last year, which includes things like green flag speed, early speed in a run, late speed in a run, stuff like that in the top five, you have three Toyotas in Bell, Hamlin and Truex across Intermediate Tracks last year. So as the year went on, Toyotas found their speed at the intermediate tracks, which auto Club counts as. Um, so you know, everybody wants to make a whole lot outta Chase Elliot getting rubbed up on by Kyle Larson in this race last year. Oh Speaker 2 00:24:58 Yeah, yeah, Speaker 3 00:24:59 Yeah, yeah. But to be honest, chase Elliott was lucky to be in that position cuz the speed throughout the race was not actually that great. Like Speaker 2 00:25:05 Was he even that good, uh, in general on high tire war tracks last Speaker 3 00:25:10 Year? Not really. Yeah, not really. I mean he wasn't, he was better at Darlington. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, but it wasn't, it wasn't a great year. Like if you look at auto club, he was 26th in total speed. If you look at Darlington, he was 10th. If you look at Michigan, he was 20th second Darlington, he was 20th. Um, Vegas, which isn't a high tire wear track, but it's, you know, a similar setup to Auto Club 24th. Um, so it was kind of, I mean in general it was kind of a down year for Chase Elliot if we're gonna be honest. He, it didn't feel like he was ever that dominant, but um, but yeah, so I'm, I'm on board with looking in the second half of last year who found speed and using that data as opposed to hey, this guy ran really well here last year but what you don't know is he took advantage of pit strategy, 14 dudes having tire issues and you know, the Trues rule to go gain some spots. So, um, so yeah, um, that, that's kind of how I'm looking at this. But in some respects we have to play into some of the chalk. Speaker 2 00:26:36 Oh Speaker 3 00:26:36 We can't completely avoid Speaker 2 00:26:38 That was basically gonna be my next question was, you know, we have these four drivers starting outside the top 30. Um, Speaker 3 00:26:47 You have, Speaker 2 00:26:48 I'm, I'm, I'm assuming you have to play like two of them in your, in your G P P lineups and even if you're getting off of like Chase Elliot and William Byron, that probably just pushes more ownership. Like Eric Jones' ownership and tournaments is gonna be, Speaker 3 00:27:03 He might be the highest own guy in tournaments. Speaker 2 00:27:05 Very true. He could be at least 40% owned, maybe even upwards of 50% owned. And if anything goes wrong with his car and if you're underweight, that's great leverage for you. Speaker 3 00:27:15 Yeah. So it's a little tricky for me to figure out the, the cash or, or the chalk rather that I'm going to be at lower ownership. Mm-hmm <affirmative> of um, in general I think I'm probably gonna be lower than the field on Chase. Um, just because he tends to have inflated ownership cuz he's the most popular driver and yeah. Folks that don't normally play are just like, I know this guy I'm gonna put him in and I get good starting spot. Um, but I think there are a few other guys like Kyle Bush and Kyle Larson that you could swap in for Chase Elliott that doesn't drastically change your build. Um, and still gives you paths to optimal. Uh, I think Tyler Reddick is gonna be a very popular play at 35th. Speaker 2 00:28:13 Very much so. Um, him and Jones could very, could end up being the two highest zone drivers. Um, yeah. Speaker 3 00:28:19 Just because he's known to be a guy that like they can really it when the tires start to to go. Yeah, that's Tyler Reddick's ability, but he also doesn't need the high line to be fast. Not that Kyle Larson necessarily does either, but if you're thinking high line, you go right to Kyle Larson and a little bit less Tyler Reddick. Um, um, so I think Byron might might be the sneaky guy, 30 and 32nd. Speaker 2 00:28:57 I'm trying to find him. Oh, 8,900. Yeah. Annie's way too cheap. Even before we knew the lines, you texted me in the middle of the week when salaries came out and you're just like, get ready for chalk reddick and, and Chalk Byron just based on that, is too cheap for those two drivers and now they're both starting outside the top 30 and they have an easy path for health. Six x value. Speaker 3 00:29:15 Byron had arguably was right there with Larson in terms of speed last year at Auto club Speaker 2 00:29:21 Until ironically both Redick and Byron wrecked, uh, last year at Auto Club. Speaker 3 00:29:26 Actually he was, if you look at the total speed rating, Byron was ahead of Byron and Jones were one two in total speed. I think there's another guy that's, that's not getting any talk and he's starting at the top 10. I think Blaney, I think Blaney may be the lowest owned 10 K driver Speaker 2 00:29:53 Probably. How'd he do on high tire wear last year? Speaker 3 00:29:56 He was quite fast here, uh, at Kansas, which is a similar track in terms of like being able to drive multiple lines in whatever. He was eighth fastest in total speed. Um, Darlington, he was ninth fastest in total speed. Kansas two was fifth fastest. Speaker 2 00:30:17 Um, he led over a hundred labs at Richmond last year, but Speaker 3 00:30:20 Finished Homestead, he was seventh fastest, he was fast everywhere man, like Speaker 2 00:30:26 <laugh>. He just had no luck. Speaker 3 00:30:27 He had a bad pit stop Is the problem that that cost him finished position last year, but the fact that he brought that car, like did you see pictures of his car after the Daytona 500? Speaker 2 00:30:41 Yeah, it was being held together by duct tape and he somehow finished what eighth? Speaker 3 00:30:44 Something like that. It was ridiculous. Like it was like there's no way to, it Speaker 2 00:30:48 Was almost like when, when Eric Jones won the Clash a couple of years ago when Denny Hamlin pretty much was a lap down and just decided to push him. Speaker 3 00:30:55 Yep. Yeah. Just like put it in the, put in discord like five different times it Blaney was done for the day and every time I turned up that the <laugh>, the 12 was still on the track and I was like, how This is ridiculous. So, um, Speaker 2 00:31:12 Are there any drivers you want to touch on or, or maybe some that we're just not that excited about or do you wanna save it for the playbook? Speaker 3 00:31:18 Please don't play Cody. Wear Speaker 2 00:31:21 <laugh>. Probably co uh, Corey Laroy as Speaker 3 00:31:24 Well. No, he's starting a little too too high at the style of track. And by the way, if you like Justin Haley, there's no reason you shouldn't like AJ Almond der I'm just gonna throw that out there. Well Speaker 2 00:31:35 Really started P 29. Speaker 3 00:31:38 Okay. But I get Haley for a cash game. But in GPP there's no reason to dislike almond. Speaker 2 00:31:48 I mean, I guess Speaker 3 00:31:50 By the way, dks Sportsbook still has the, they have dks Sportsbook has 'em going off at the same odds to win. Speaker 2 00:31:58 I still only have two bets on this race. Speaker 3 00:32:00 A hundred to one for both of them. Speaker 2 00:32:02 Oh, that's not bad. Speaker 3 00:32:04 I would sprinkle a little bit on AJ Speaker 2 00:32:06 Almond Dinger. I'd probably sprinkle if he's going a hundred to one. I I don't mind doing like 0.2 units on Almond Dinger. Speaker 3 00:32:14 Yeah, I mean he's got longer odds than Cindrich Axon, Ty Gibbs, he's twice as long as Alma Speaker 2 00:32:23 Fel sports book. I posted this earlier in the Discord, but they had the starting finishing position of the winter, uh, and 30 like basically 31 plus. So basically the drivers that were starting outside the top 30, they were still getting plus six 50 and you're getting a guy, you're getting drivers like Chase, Elliot, William Byron, uh, Tyler Reddick and Eric Jones in that range. And if one of those four hit wins then you're getting a nice little payday. Speaker 3 00:32:53 Yeah, Briscoe's there too. That's not terrible. It's not terrible but I would scr a little bit on Almond Dinger. Why not? It's, I Speaker 2 00:33:04 Don't hate it for 101. That's fine Speaker 3 00:33:07 For a guy starting sixth <laugh>, like, um, by the way, don't expect as many cautions for Rex as we had at Daytona. They tend to not, uh, happen all that much here unless guys blow a tire. But I don't suspect we're gonna have quite as much tire issues this year. Speaker 2 00:33:27 Yes. Last year was an interesting race only because there were only, the longest green flag run here was 18 laps. A lot of the cautions that were thrown were tire issues. Yes. Uh, just very small things. There were obviously a few wrecks there's going to be every week, but the excess of cautions was basically just like technical issues that cars were having. Like call cars were stalling on the track and then we realized like, oh wow, if a car goes down with the flat, they basically have to get towed or pushed back to their pit. Speaker 3 00:33:56 Yeah. And now they've since fixed the tire issue cuz it turns out it was teams cheating the PSI that was then up the side walls. And that doesn't really happen at this point anymore. Um, not to say that somebody can't go down with a flat on a high tire or a track at Cam, but they've also figured out how to not, um, have to pull out the equipment to get it off of the track. Um, so I would suspect there to be much longer GreenLake runs this year than there were, uh, last year. All Speaker 2 00:34:32 Right. Did you want to add anything else or are we just gonna be on the lookout for the playbook later this afternoon? Speaker 3 00:34:37 No, just be on the lookout for the playbook and projections, uh, later Saturday afternoon. Obviously this will be posted at top the playbook as well as be a standalone. Listen to wherever you hit your podcast. Um, core plays out Sunday. Um, and yeah, that's about, that's about it. This will be standard operating procedure for us for every quote unquote standard race outside of plate tracks. Um, just our way of bringing more informed discussion to you all to you all rather than saying, because I haven't been on track yet, um, on like a Wednesday. Um, so yeah, this will be, uh, more so how it's operating the rest of the season. Speaker 2 00:35:29 All right. Well Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you for Fontana and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:35:34 Best of luck, cafe Nation.

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