Episode 10

April 16, 2023



Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast

Apr 16 2023 | 00:36:29


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz preview the DFS strategy and field for the NOCO 400 on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. How are we dealing with Chase Elliott's return to the 9-car and how are we building lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel for NASCAR DFS.

View Full Transcript

Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? FFA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast. I am Dan Mallon. I am joined by the Fs w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells Matt, we are fresh off Bristol Dirt. We survived it, we made it through it, and we actually made a little bit of money on it. How, what, what is your reaction to last week's race and how excited are you for just some good old fashioned short track racing at Martinsville? Speaker 3 00:00:50 Uh, I was pretty happy with last week's race. I thought it was a very solid race. I really loved the racing at the end of stage two, where everybody was slipping, sliding, trading in places. Um, there was a bunch of different lines on that racetrack. It came in really, really well. Um, it was, it was great. There was a lot of interesting strategy calls. I thought it was relatively clean for dfs. Yes, there were cautions, but I'm not entirely sure that there were more cautions in that one than a normal Bristol race. Um, so overall, I'm, I'm pretty happy. Um, wish I had a little bit more Christopher Bell than I did, but, um, you know, such as the case now, I'm leaning on him this week and the guy goes out and lays an egg and <laugh> practice and qualifying. So we'll, we'll see what happens. Speaker 3 00:01:39 But yeah, Martinsville, I love Martinsville, the paper clip. I love the beating and the banging that happens. I love the crowd reactions to everything that happens on this track. Um, basically nobody gets out unscathed. We've seen Denny Hamlin food here multiple times, <laugh>, um, we've seen him get into fisticuffs with a few different people. We've seen Joey Logano get into fisticuffs here. Truex won a race and then broadcast a fight while he was giving his post race interview <laugh> a few years ago. Um, so we've seen a little bit of everything. We've seen the hall to wall from Ross Chastain last year, so I'm excited, man. Like, yeah, it's three straight dirt. It's three straight short tracks, but they're all a little different and, um, we get Martinsville chaos leading into Talladega chaos next week. So it's, it's a pretty good, pretty good time in the NASCAR schedule. Speaker 2 00:02:30 All right. As we noted multiple times before, uh, Martinsville, I mean, do we, before we, uh, dive into a track breakdown, uh, driver pool preview, this is actually the second time Matt and I have tried to record this podcast. We actually had a really nice tangent on the Friday night truck series race. I think we're both just in agreement. It, it wasn't a good race when over half the race is run under yellow and you pretty much just run enough laps to get to the halfway point to call it unofficial race. Um, I lost $3. I played $35 in tournaments last night. Uh, we're recording this Friday evening, 7:30 PM Eastern time at, at, uh, yeah, I, I won 32 bucks, so I had a negative $3 loss. Not great. It was a really ugly race, which is a shame because Kyle Bush looked so fast in the first stage when they wore running green. Uh, he even lapped Ross Chestain at one point, but then, uh, a variety of factors came in. I pretty much fell asleep during the second stage and I was kind of in and out after that. Corey Heim gets the win, but I wouldn't feel particularly great about that win either. Like this is one of those races when we go to like future Martinsville races and we're looking at the trucks, it's like you can't take anything away from that race, Speaker 3 00:03:46 Right? I mean, they ran 60 something green flag laps out of 124. Um, we, we figured out that at 2324 second lapse, which is about what the trucks do, that's 23 and a half minutes of actual racing. Um, I mean hell and group a in practice for Cup series on Saturday evening, a few guys did 50 plus laps in the 20 minute practice. So it, it wasn't a great look. I understand they had to get it in for blues, the race basically, cuz it's such a tight schedule with a triple race weekend at Martinsville and you're not gonna have the truck guys camp out until um, like Monday cuz that's not great for anybody. Um, but it, it wasn't great. So, um, with that being said, we don't have any concerns about whether going forward the cup race looks fine. In fact, they keep bumping it up. I think it's up to 2:56 PM Eastern now for the green flag. They bumped it up like 15 minutes. They Speaker 2 00:04:46 Should just bump it up to two o'clock. Speaker 3 00:04:47 They, they, I mean it's, I don't, I mean, I guess they're trying to bump it so that any late occurring rain might be avoided at the end of the race is what I'm guessing. Other than that, I'm not sure why they're, they're bumping it up 15 minutes. It doesn't seem like a TV related thing. It seems more like a weather thing that they don't wanna get hit at the end of the race. Um, now keep in mind the cup race this time around is 400 laps. It's not 500 laps, it's 400 laps. So it's a whole hundred laps shorter than the fall race. Um, so if you're banking on those laps led, you're gonna get a hundred fewer of them this time than you did in the fall race. Um, this is not the first time that's happened. They've done it a couple years now in a row in the spring race in Martinsville because we don't need two 500 laps at Martinsville. We, we just, no. Speaker 2 00:05:39 Um, all right. As far as this race is shaping up, we've, we've had practice, we've had qualifying. Um, I only have my reservations made on DraftKings for tournaments. Uh, I have reservations in the chrome horn, the happy hour, the $3 three max, uh, the Rainbow Warrior, which is the $24 single entry as well as the $12 single entry. I don't know, they can't really name that one after Blaney just yet. Um, but I am probably gonna make some reservations Sunday morning for cash games based on how qualifying kind of sh shook out and we'll, we'll get to drivers and our, our thoughts on how cars were set up. But overall, like are you, do you agree that this is a good, you know, track and a and a good race for cash games, uh, on Sunday? Speaker 3 00:06:26 I do. I think, uh, based on how qualifying shook had, I think there's a, a bunch of different ways you could go actually. Um, I know we talk about Martinsville being tough to pass. That is true, but by the way, nobody from the front row has won since Jimmy Johnson in like 2013 here. Um, now that's not to say that people from the top 10 don't win, cuz eight of the last 10 races here, guys starting in the top 10 have won them. Um, but you, you can move up, you can use strategy, you can use pit strategy and you know, long run speed and cautions and whatever to move up through the field here. The passing is possible. It's tough, but it's possible. So we can build a little bit for pd. Now our normal concern with short tracks are back lapping is a thing here, like mm-hmm <affirmative> very quickly. Speaker 3 00:07:16 So anybody starting outside the top 30, you're gonna have to make a pretty strong case for me to wanna play them. There are some very interesting guys starting outside that <laugh> outside the top 31 of whom our colleague Ed Ralph <laugh>, what have a problem with. Um, but the problem is that lapping, as you just heard in the truck race, happened very quickly, even under not ideal conditions. And then the cup race, we're gonna have ideal conditions. We've got very fast guys in the front of the pack. So that's the only concern really with going straight pd, um, is a, you don't get any laps lead, uh, and b lapping can happen, which then cuts off your position differential. So I do think cash is definitely viable. Um, I think there's a bunch of really interesting ways to build for both G P P and cash this week. Uh, don't go all PD or all front, whichever you do. Um, I would say for cash we're gonna focus more on PD and for GPP we're gonna sell out more for Lapide. But other than that you could play a lot of the same guys across the spectrum. Speaker 2 00:08:32 Well it's interesting that you said because Ryan Priest who is 7,400 didn't land the pole or would you be okay playing priests in cash games? Speaker 3 00:08:40 I would hear, because you can tend to, and he looked good. Like, it's not like he eked out the pole. Like he, Speaker 2 00:08:48 He looked, he was fast, Speaker 3 00:08:49 He was fast, he was like a full car length. The head of Suarez, who by the way, I don't know where the hell that sport came from cuz this has not been a good track for Daniel Suarez <laugh>. It's, it's not been, um, a good experience here. So, um, you know, I I would say that given what laps led mean here and that you can click off like 70 of 'em in a blink of an eye, I think priests is cash game viable. I would go a little lower on him in cash games than I would in gpp. Um, he's gonna be incredibly popular in gpp, incredibly popular. Speaker 2 00:09:31 I agree. Um, he's Speaker 3 00:09:33 $7,400 and he's a poll sitter at a track where you can click off a hundred laps without even blinking an eye. Speaker 2 00:09:39 Yeah. And as long as like the first stage stays green and he does right purely just run up front, you know, you could probably tolerate, yeah, you could probably just deal with the fact that he could lose over 10 spots of, of PD finish outside the top 10, maybe even like 15th. But as long as he leads the entire stage, there's still clearly a path for him to be in the optimal lineup as long as he leads every lap in the first stage. Speaker 3 00:10:04 Yeah, I mean, I don't even know if we need every lap. I think we need like most of them, but um, now do we want 'em falling all the way back to like 20th? No, but that's the risk you take in gpp, right? So I think he's viable for both. I think in short tracks you can build fairly similar lineups. I just think for gpp we're building more around guys who are starting closer to the front in cash. You're building a couple of those and then more PD plays, I think is the main difference, uh, that I'm approaching with my build. And and obviously there are some drivers who you're like, well they look fast this weekend and they've looked fast this year, but historically they suck here so we'll take a shot in a GPP with them because things are going their way right now. Right? And then there's other guys where it's like, well they've historically been really good here, but they don't look good this weekend. And one of those guys is Ryan Blaney. I I want your thoughts on, on Ryan Blaney th this week very, very intrigued. He's 9,500 bucks and he's starting on DK and he's starting uh, 31st. Speaker 2 00:11:18 That's my big concern. Like I, I'd probably play him in cash and that's about it. Like a lot of casual players will look at a guy like Ryan Blaney, like 9,500 is is the price that you can pay for a guy that's offering pd but also this, this seems like a really good spot to the point where it's like he's 9,500 and he's starting inside of the top 30. This is, this is supposed to be good equipment, but I also like, I would love the leverage of not eating this chalk correct and watching it bust. Speaker 3 00:11:49 Correct. Speaker 2 00:11:50 So if I am going to play him, it's probably, probably just cash games. Um, because when, when when you play Martinsville dfs, you, you really don't need dominator points at his price tag. Correct. But you still probably want it, um, he's 9,500, you're starting outside the top 30. Like what is he doing to hit value? Like even if he finishes 15th and you add the pd that's 44 points, that's almost five x value. But in this price range, there probably is a guy that's gonna go out there and break the slate because he's probably gonna finish top 10 or maybe top five and he's gonna get dominated points. And so I think if I'm only playing tournaments, this is a good spot to just get weird or not, not even necessarily get weird, but just to like be under and you don't have to full fade him cuz I'm probably doing 40 lineups and tournaments between the chrome horn and the happy hour and I'm probably gonna mix him into probably 10 to 15% of my builds. But uh, this, this just screams and based on what I've seen this year and how the, the Penske has looked on short flag tracks, I'm okay fading him in the spot. Speaker 3 00:13:05 I think I'm with you. I I mean it's hard to say considering the fact that the guy has seven top fives in the last 10 races here, right? Like yeah, but if you look at that, he's never started this far back in any of those races. Like the farthest back he started in those 10 races is 17th and when he started 17th he pulled off a fourth place finish, which is nice, but if you're saying, okay, the max PD he's ever gotten is like 13 spots, that kind of caps it for you, right? Like if we need him to get top 14, then you need him to produce 17 spots of pd, which is possible, but it's something he's not really ever done nor had to do with this track. Nor has Penske come into Martinsville looking this flat out bad. That being said, he did have speed at similar tracks this year. It's hard to ignore that. But again, he started at those tracks closer to the front than he's starting here. And by the way, at Richmond he didn't look all that great either. <laugh> like he got some fastest laughs but he didn't have the best run. Um, Speaker 2 00:14:24 No. And and I think even if you look at his run at uh, Phoenix back in March over a month ago, you know, he started, he started finished second and he, but at that price he was 10,300 and he got 53 points, which is fine, that's five x value. But when you pay that kind of price tag, you are expecting a 70 to 80 point performance. Correct? Yeah. You need more than just bd Speaker 3 00:14:49 You also Speaker 2 00:14:50 Need more than, he's 9,500 this time around. He's, he's 9,500 this time around and he's starting much farther back so he can easily eclipse five, maybe even six x value. But I I, I am in a spot where if anything goes wrong with that guy and this is Martinsville and he's starting far back. So it's like, it's possible that the car is just, and he gets and gets lapped early on, maybe even falls two laps down after the first stage if he wrecks he's done. And that's gonna screw probably 30 to 40% of lineups and tournaments. If he has a pit road penalty that's gonna screw him as well. So, you know, we'd love targeting pd but this is a track where, you know, maybe targeting too much PD is, uh, is is what does your DFS lineup in? And so I'm okay eating the chalk if I'm building a cash lineup and putting him in the same probably goes for Ross Chastain who's 8,800 and he's starting P 34. But the correct at a track like this, this this is a really good spot to get leverage and just be underweight compared to the field in regards to Ryan b Blaney. Speaker 3 00:16:00 Now let, I want your opinion on Hendrick this week cuz obviously we've buried the lead here. Case Elliot's back sooner than I thought he was gonna be, but it's arguably his best oval. Like obviously road courses are league of their own, but Martinville is arguably his best oval. So, you know, he says he got a few, few days in the simulator, he felt fine. Okay, but the actual forces in a simulator aren't what they actually are in a car. Um mm-hmm <affirmative> that's out. Barry is on standby in case they have to pull Chase out and as long as Chase starts the race, you will get all of the points for Chase Elliot. If he, like, let's say he starts at the end of the first stage, he can't do it. His, his knee and leg and whatever are barking at him. They pull him out, they put Josh Barry in, regardless of what Josh Barry does, you will still get the points for Chase Elliott, right? Speaker 3 00:16:59 Um, but I'm very, it's very interesting to me what they've done with some of this pricing. First of all, chase Elliott is the third most expensive Hendrick Carr on dk. Uh, Byron and Larson are the top two most expensive guys. Uh, Byron has been a co favorite or favorite all week to win. Now he won this race last year and he's looked pretty fast in general, uh, on shorter tracks. Uh, I I don't know how to read Hendrick though cause I, I feel like I don't like, we've got Bowman starting 23rd. Chase is starting 24, Larson's starting 19th and Byron is starting eighth. Speaker 2 00:17:47 Um, my thoughts on heme are pretty much the only one I I don't think I wanna play is Larson. Speaker 3 00:17:55 Um, kinda, um, Speaker 2 00:17:58 Because it, it's basically the same argument we just made against Ryan Blaney. Um, and it feels weird to say this because L Larson won the Richmond race two weeks ago, which is a short, flat track, but I think the consensus is that most people believe he didn't have the best car that day. Speaker 3 00:18:14 I'm pretty sure he admitted he didn't have the best car that day, Speaker 2 00:18:18 Right? And so, you know, he is the second most expensive driver on DraftKings. He is 10,600. He is starting P 19. He has an easy path and by all means he should finish in the top five and that probably gets into five x value. However, if he's not leading laps, uh, in tournaments, he's not gonna pay off that, that 10,600 price act. Because as we said with Blaney, when you're paying over 10,000 driver dollars for a driver in, in DraftKings, uh, especially at the cup level in a race like this that's gonna have over 200 dore points available, you're gonna want Larson to give you a score that's in that 70 to 80 point range. And I don't think he's had the greatest track record at Martinsville. Um, Speaker 3 00:19:05 No, he's, he's not, he's, I mean he's all right. He's not terrible, but like Speaker 2 00:19:10 Exactly, Speaker 3 00:19:11 Normally he starts about eighth and his average finish in the last eight races here is 15th. He's got two top fives, three top tens at eight races. So, Speaker 2 00:19:20 But, but a year ago we, we were at this race and the consensus was was that you build your tournament line with Chase Elliot and William Byron and I think that combo was perfect and I think it nailed in a lot of toter tournaments. Sorry. Um, so for that reason, like I, I don't have a ton of faith in Larson. I think he's a good PD play. I think he can probably finish top five. He probably gets a couple fastest laps as well, but he's, he's a guy that really needs to lead probably at least a hundred laps. I don't know if that's in the table for him. But meanwhile, you know, we have Chase Elliot who's 9,300 starting a few spots further back at P 24. He's only starting P 24 because on his qualifying lap I think he struggled Speaker 3 00:20:04 The wall. Speaker 2 00:20:05 Yeah. And so that really threw off his time. I think what it was was that he was really excited to just get back in the car. He wanted to lay down a fast lap. There's speed in the car. Um, and then he just got a little overexcited probably wanted to send too much of a message like, you know, I'm back. Uh, and he, he got into the wall. Um, but as far as his, his physical health is like, it sounds like he's okay. I I don't think that, you know, Josh Barry is gonna tag in and, and and, and finish this race form. I think Chase Elliot will finish the race. Um, if, if there was any doubt regarding his health, I think that they would just have Barry run the race anyway, Speaker 3 00:20:46 Right? I mean they're not gonna put their golden boy in, in danger this quickly just because I mean Barry was racing well in that car and let's not forget that Barry got a win here to put him on the map, right? Like it's not like Barry's an unaccomplished short tracker. Like he, he's arguably better in this car than Chase would be. So, um, I I'm with you. I don't think hell is a concern. I was pointing that out in case anybody had any questions coming up that if Barry tags in what happens to Chase, you still get the points from Chase. Now to your point, based on practice 10 lap averages, which we can dig a little deeper and go, let me see if I can find the like 20 lap averages cuz those are usually better at a place like, uh, Martinsville. Um, but based on 10 lap averages, Zane Smith actually ran a faster 10 lap average. Um, or basically the same, basically the same 10 lap average as Kyle Larson did, <laugh> Kyle Larson ran 10 lap average in 15th at an average speed of 91.50. And Zane Smith ran it at 91.49. I'm not saying Zane Smith is viable, I'm just saying it Speaker 2 00:22:04 Doesn't No, I I know, I know, I get it. Yeah, Speaker 3 00:22:07 Byron was second in Tim lap average in case. Speaker 2 00:22:12 Uh, yeah. Um, I don't know, like I I I know the equipment that James Smith is running in this weekend. Speaker 3 00:22:19 Yeah, please don't go play Zane Smith because I mentioned he was almost as fast as like Speaker 2 00:22:24 Back markers get lapped here quickly. Speaker 3 00:22:27 Yeah, he's still starting pretty far back. He's still in equipment that won't last more than like 25 laps. So like, you know, just cuz a guy goes fast for 10 laps, uh uh, Martinsville doesn't mean he's got the speed. Now. Uh, if we go look at corn lap average William Byron is fastest. Yeah. And then by the way, you get Ryan Blaney at fifth. Just a little circle back there. Uh, chase Elliot is six fastest I think 1 2 34 5 6 fastest Larson is eighth fastest in 20 lap average. But Bowman, I don't want any parts of Bowman Speaker 2 00:23:12 Really Why he's 8,200 and he is P 23. Like he's a guy that I would strictly pay play for the PD and hope for a top 10 and be perfectly fine if he doesn't get any dominators. Speaker 3 00:23:27 I mean Speaker 2 00:23:28 Doesn't he have like Blake Harris back too at this point? Speaker 3 00:23:32 He should. Um, I just don't like the speed that he hasn't, like he's not really shown good speed here and I know they can tweak the cars a little bit and they might have been testing, uh, different setups, which I think is what Jgr was doing. I think you and I are both on that same page that they, Speaker 2 00:23:51 I mean he was top 10 at Richmond and Phoenix. Speaker 3 00:23:54 Okay. I mean that's fair. He did start eating the Phoenix. He started on the pole at Richmond and then went backwards and didn't really lead a bunch of laps. Um, Phoenix is reasonably close, um, to here, but I mean Bowman's also had an okay like yes he has a win here as does basically everybody in the Hendrick garage. But like his average start over the last nine races here is 13.8. His average finish is 14 one. So he's just as likely to finish in the top six as he is to finish outside the top 30. Speaker 2 00:24:41 Um, do you wanna briefly touch on J G R and S r? Speaker 3 00:24:46 Yeah, we can, I mean I know this is turning into a little bit more of a dive into drivers but I wouldn't read that much into practice data for J G R. I think people are gonna bail on J G R and I think that's the wrong move. Speaker 2 00:25:03 So I think you and I both agreed that they tried probably four different setups on the four different cars and it just so happens that Martin Truex probably had the right setup, Speaker 3 00:25:11 Which is hilarious, Speaker 2 00:25:14 Right? Speaker 3 00:25:15 Um, but this is also the track where Truex basically owns it cuz he is named Martin and it's Martinsville. Speaker 2 00:25:22 Uh, but Denny Hamlin on um, actions detrimental his his podcast, uh, through the Dirty Mo media network. Uh, he seemed very confident that this was gonna be the week that they, his team turned it around. The team has kind of underperformed for the most part. Um, damn they have really underperformed actually. But Speaker 3 00:25:42 Yeah, it has not been good for the Speaker 2 00:25:45 Um, but I mean at Richmond a couple weeks ago he led 71 laps with 19 fastest laps. Um, terrible run at Phoenix. Holy crap. Uh, but Denny Hamlin has won here multiple times. I mean this, this is the kind of track that Jgr should be good at. And I think you and I just both agree that they were just trying different setups and they nailed it with the TRX card and I think that they'll make the right adjustments to have Bell Hamlin Truex. Uh, and I, I guess <laugh> Kai Gibbs is actually coming into the race with the longest top 10 streak in nascar. Um, and he's starting P 12 i, which is ridiculous myself. It's very ridiculous. Speaker 3 00:26:26 I don't know what I'm doing with Gibbs perfectly. I mean he did, he did technically do well here in the fall Xfinity race, but that was <laugh> his damn teammate outta the way. Um, I I think people are gonna bail somewhat on some, like some of the cheap Toyotas I think are in play. Yes. Hi hint Bub Wallace is gonna be in the playbook cuz I think he's actually a sneaky good short track racer. I really do. Um, he showed pretty good speed over the long run here. He's starting ninth. I don't think there's any reason not to play him. Um, I don't know what to do with Ty Gibbs to be perfectly honest. Um, I think Speaker 2 00:27:08 He's the guy that I'm probably play in probably like 10 to 15% of my lineups because he doesn't Speaker 3 00:27:15 Have to do anything to hit value. He just stays Speaker 2 00:27:18 Where he is. Well because in previous podcasts we've preached about how, you know, it's like you, you really, if you're gonna pay down, pay down for guys that are kind of starting inside the top 20 and that just kind of hold their position on the lead lap and him and Ty Gilland, that's what they're in position to do as long and it's, it's like Connor Jones of the truck race last night when he was running that truck was a top F 16 truck and granted he finished 18th and a lot of the laps were run under yellow. But he held his position and he returned some semblance of DS DFS value and who Ty gives credit, he has returned at least 43 points in four straight races. But I mean we are mixing in Atlanta, uh, Richmond, a dirt race and a high variance road Speaker 3 00:28:05 Course. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:28:06 And so, you know, he has forced Speaker 3 00:28:08 Yeah you're not, if you're asking him to get you dominator points, which he doesn't need at this price, you're probably looking at the wrong guy cuz he, he only gets a smattering a fastest laps right to this point. Right. Um, but he does have four straight top tens. Can't, can't fault the dude for finishing the top 10. I do think that Denny Hamlin's the under the radar guy, I think Truex is gonna be pretty highly played. Christopher Bell I love this week. Uh, I, Speaker 2 00:28:42 Yeah, his car should be fine. Speaker 3 00:28:44 I, he'll, he'll be fine. I think there's a lot of people panicking cuz he looked like he was sleeping through practice and not doing very much and he's starting 22nd. Oh, you wanna know where he won from last fall 20th. So I'm not all that, I'm not <laugh>, I'm not all that off of him. I wrote him up before, uh, qualifying as a pick to win in my betting piece picks wise. Um, uh, he's arguably the most consistent Toyota driver they've had over the last year and a half basically. Um, you know, yeah it wasn't a great road race for him, but whatevs that was a, a wicked, wicked end to that race, a Dakota in and who care this row course dirt race, it's his specialty. So, you know, yeah. He wanted, he dominated that race. It's his specialty. But like Phoenix, he ran Barry solidly Richmond, he had a great, and, and for by the way guys, uh, if you're concerned about, oh he won't be able to lead laps or get dominator points, he started 21st at Richmond, finished fourth, led 26 laps and finished and had 15 fastest laps. Yeah. Basically looking for him to do that again, which he can. So I dunno what to do with, with Sr. I mean, let me put it this way, I like several of the HHR guys coming into the Speaker 2 00:30:11 League, I mean they have speed, they Speaker 3 00:30:12 Qualified well they have speed. Yeah, they qualified. Well I did put a couple of them in my picks to win piece coming into, um, the week before qualifying before practice that came out Friday afternoon. So none Speaker 2 00:30:27 84. What is going Speaker 3 00:30:29 On? I don't know man. He's finished fifth, fifth and ninth at Richmond Phoenix and the dirt race this year. Uh, I mean I, I honestly don't know why he finished ninth at the dirt race cuz I completely lost track of him. Late night race fifth at Phoenix, the track he's good at and fifth at. Yeah Richmond. Uh, there's no reason he was ten eight at Richmond and now he's 8,400 at Martinsville Speaker 2 00:30:58 <laugh>. This is insane. And it's not like he was a bus last week on the dirt. Like usually I think DraftKings is fairly reactionary to the previous race for their pricing Speaker 3 00:31:07 Was Speaker 2 00:31:08 8,300. He was 8,300 last week on dirt Grabbed a, he finished ninth after starting 26. Then he put up 52 DraftKings points. He's put up 46 50 and 52 points in his last three races. And by Speaker 3 00:31:20 The way he 80 at Phoenix and yeah Speaker 2 00:31:22 Like what are they doing with this price tag? Speaker 3 00:31:25 I don't know. I mean his, to be fair, to be fair to them, his history in Martinsville is not the greatest but it's also not terrible. Okay. So the last 10 races in Martinsville, granted its bands like three generations of cars. His average start is 9.4 is average finishes 11 two, he's got five top tens, he's got eight top fifteens. So like he's like, normally we say he's just a guy that just hangs around these tracks and just hangs out. But at 8,400 bucks I'm perfectly fine with a dude just hanging out. Yeah. Like are you starting seventh? What I have liked to have seen him start a little further back. Sure. But maybe starting seventh we'll get some leverage on the field cuz maybe some people look past him, um, to like, I don't know, Bowman at <laugh> 200 bucks less starting P 23. Yeah. Um, Speaker 2 00:32:27 Sorry, go ahead. Keep going. Speaker 3 00:32:29 I don't, I don't, I don't know. Briscoe's interesting to me. I think he's a sneaky pick to win. He's starting fourth. I would've liked to have seen him start a little lower, but like for betting I like to see him start fourth <laugh>. Cause I, I wrote him up at like 35 to one before practice and qualifying to win. Speaker 2 00:32:49 I mean he won the first Phoenix raced last year. He finished seventh third this year. He was top 12 at Richmond. You know, there's, I can't call him a complete long shot cuz he is in good equipment, but yeah, Speaker 3 00:33:00 I mean Alex's had him at 35 to one before practice and Speaker 2 00:33:04 Yeah he's starting in the second row so that's, that's certainly viable. Um, Speaker 3 00:33:09 I mean we'll see what they've adjusted his odds to now cuz they're not up yet. But Speaker 2 00:33:13 This has definitely been more of a long winded podcast. So I I don't think we should live too much away cuz you do have the playbook coming out. But, you know, are there any other drivers or strategies maybe contest selection that we haven't touched on that you wanna briefly uh, indulge in or, or would you be content with this podcast at where it's at? Speaker 3 00:33:33 Um, I would say again, if you're looking at g p, we're looking for maybe, maybe you're doing four guys starting inside the top 20 per G P P with a couple of lap led dominators. Um, if you're doing cash, probably doing one lap LED dominator and then a couple more guys starting, I don't know, 25th, like in the top 25. Oh I still don't wanna go that far back. Like Ryan Blaney shorts special cases, his equipment should be good enough to keep him from getting laughed all that fast. Um, but I, I wouldn't go for too many more dudes who are back that far in not great equipment. So just this is kind of, I know it's a cup series and everybody's supposed to be on a more level playing field, but they're not, um, back markers. They're still back markers and they really, really show up here. Speaker 3 00:34:34 Um, so, you know, I I would expect a decent amount of cautions too cuz one car spins on short tracks bring out cautions basically every time. Um, they do have wet tires. They're not for racing in the wet, they're just forgetting started in the damp so they don't have to try the track quite as much, but I don't think there's rain in the forecast so, um, that shouldn't really be a problem. But yeah, look for the playbook. Um, it'll be out late Saturday night. Um, you know, these kinda late practices are I, I wanna get a jump on writing guys up and then I'm like, well if I write like basically the whole playbook and then half the dudes don't do what I expect, then I have to rewrite half the playbook and then that's just the waste of people time <laugh>. Um, um, so it'll be out. I don't wanna talk about everybody cuz I do have some sneaky plays up my, up my sleeve. Speaker 2 00:35:32 Awesome. Well I think we gave people a good enough jumpstart to at least give them an idea of how to approach line of building. Speaker 3 00:35:39 Yeah. And then projections will be out probably Sunday morning. Speaker 2 00:35:42 I hope Ed doesn't listen to us talk about Brian Blaney Speaker 3 00:35:44 Though. I mean, I said nice things. I wrote em up in the piece. Speaker 2 00:35:48 I said, I said nice things, Speaker 3 00:35:51 But I also told you you might wanna be careful like, uh, yeah, it's, he's got it rough man being, being the sports fan. He is. He, he doesn't get a lot of nice things very often. These a Padres, chargers Clippers Blaney fan, so there's not a whole lot of nice things coming his way. Yeah, Speaker 2 00:36:11 He's the luxury of living in California. But, uh, Matt, as always, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this week and best of luck to the FA Speaker 3 00:36:19 Nation. Best of luck FA Nation.

Other Episodes