October 13, 2022


NASCAR DFS Podcast: South Point 400

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
NASCAR DFS Podcast: South Point 400
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
NASCAR DFS Podcast: South Point 400

Oct 13 2022 | 00:58:05


Show Notes

The Round of 8 for the NASCAR playoffs kicks off in Vegas on Sunday. The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway serves as the first chance for a driver to lock in the Championship race. Get strategy and early breakdowns on drivers in this week's Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your, Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on F Nation, Welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast. We have four races to go in the 2022 season. It's felt like an absolute marathon and that's because it kind of has been because we've really only had one week off from cup racing. I don't know why AJ Almond der is returning to this next year, but we are into the round of eight with four races to go. We are previewing Vegas this week coming off of the ral. Matt, how are you? What news do we have to break down from the NASCAR world following the ral? I know there were some penalties, there was some controversy, uh, but we're also getting some clarification on how teams are shaping up for 2023. Speaker 3 00:01:01 Yeah, there is, there is quite a lot coming outta the ral. I didn't catch all that much of it. Um, I had my daughter's last soccer game of the season was basically at the same time as the race. Um, so obviously gonna go uh, watch that. Um, but what I surmised from it was that it was a terrible race. Uh, it was basically impossible to pass for the lead unless it was a restart or pit. Uh, you know, pit cycle, uh, a cardboard sign reeked havoc on the race and apparently cold custer cheated or at least that's what NASCAR says. Uh, and then they absolutely hammered him, uh, like a hundred thousand dollars fine. The points, well it's like whose line is it anyway where the points don't really matter? Um, cuz he was eliminated anyway, um, but then they suspended his crew chief indefinitely, which is a pretty serious, uh, suspension. Speaker 3 00:02:06 So if you're unfamiliar, uh, Coal Custer slowed down in the closing laps of the RAL race, just went like half throttle basically. And he was in front of Kyle Larson who was trying to make a last ditch effort to make the round of eight. And thus coal Custer slowing down helped Chase Brisco theoretically make the round of eight because it allowed him to continue passing guys without Larson, you know, passing people back. And the crux of the situation is that they NASCAR heard coal custer's crew chiefs say on the radio. I think you've got a flat might want to back it down and be gentle with it, not unsurprising. Right? We've seen flat tires all season long, they've hit all raised long. The only problem is NASCAR determined based on all of the data that they have on these cars and GPS positioning and all that good stuff that Mike ship lit. Nor the spotter could tell if the tire was down at the time that the crew chief said that his tire was flat, couldn't see the car. Pretty hard to tell your driver that you have a flat tire if you can't see the car. So that's pretty much what the penalty is for basically manipulating the end of the race. Speaker 2 00:03:28 I think they did Speaker 3 00:03:31 Look, it's fine if you wanna penalize these guys, right? But I think but Speaker 2 00:03:39 You're saying to penalize Custer is heavy. Speaker 3 00:03:43 Well look, if clearly Custer was following team order so he should be fined for that, right? The points, I don't care about the points, they're not gonna matter. Um, he was already learning driver Speaker 2 00:03:58 That doesn't want like two years. Speaker 3 00:03:59 Yeah, exactly. <laugh>. Um, so the points aren't a thing. The crew chief is a thing. $200,000 fine across both the driver and the crew Chief is a heck of a lot of money obviously. But here's the thing, why didn't they find or suspend or whatnot? Denny Hamlin a couple years ago when he told, well more than a couple, but a few years ago when he told Eric Jones not to pass late in a race, um, because of the points that it would cost whoever he was gonna pass when they were teammates at Jgr, right? Why not find, um, Denny Hamlin when he clearly pulled out of line at Atlanta a few weeks ago to get Mtj stage points to get Mtj possibly into the playoffs? Cuz Hamlin was already secure, right? Why not go after some other guys that have slowed up? Right? Chase Elliott famously last year at Bristol slowed up and held up Kevin Hark, NASCAR says, Well that was retaliation, it was the driver taking it into his own hands. But do you really wanna draw that line? Like that's the question here. Where does NASCAR want to draw this line? Because Rodney Gils already tweeted out, Guess what guys, You can hold up teammates, you can help out teammates at Phoenix for the championship. As long as you don't say anything on the radio. Speaker 2 00:05:27 I would say that first of all, two wrongs, don't make it right. Right. The the arguments against Hamlin are, are fair. Uh, but I think when even when they, when Custer's team tries to mask it like they did by saying it was a flat and he was blatantly off the throttle and just really doing a bad job of to hide the effort to fix the race, uh, that may have been a bad term, but whatever, I don't care. I think that NASCAR can step in, in, in a situation like this, you can easily look back and say, why wasn't this done before in this situation or this situation? And it's just like, just because it's been done wrong in the past doesn't mean that NASCAR in the present and the future should not do anything about it. Obviously because of the issues and the arguments that you have about that have happened previously. Speaker 3 00:06:26 Famously Spin Gate where they told Clint Boyer, Why don't you spun himself and Speaker 2 00:06:32 Then like Nas in a position now to harshly punish teams and drivers for doing so. And I think this sets a good tone and a good precedent going forward because now, because briefly what you're arguing is that teams could essentially get away with it and now NASCAR is basically saying, No, we're not gonna run with that BS anymore. And so I personally don't have a problem with them making an example out of the 41. And I, and I don't know, I don't think Coal Custer and, and the team are necessarily hurting for it cuz they haven't won since Kentucky in 2020. Uh, haven't been much of a contender since then. And so yeah, if you're gonna try and help your team, you better be able to pay the price for it. And if they can consistently prove this going forward, regardless of what the communication was over the radio, if NASCAR feels confident in what they're proving and I get like in a court of law, this probably doesn't like hold up at all. But if this is NASCAR's belief and I'm sitting here saying like, I believe that Cold Custer was trying to fix the race for Chase Brisco and so I fully support the decision, right. While letting Chase Brisco racing the right of eight. Speaker 3 00:07:43 My only, my only problem is that NASCAR also came out and said they don't believe that lar that that this is the reason that Brisco made like Advance Right. AKA that Larson was Oh, Speaker 2 00:07:56 I i Speaker 3 00:07:56 Behind, Speaker 2 00:07:57 Which is kind of weird with my argument, Speaker 3 00:08:00 Right? But my my point is like if NASCAR is hammering him for fixing the race and saving the spot for a teammate, but then also coming out and saying, well he didn't have to do that to save the spot then I mean, I I get why you have to hammer him so that it doesn't happen again in a situation that may actually help a teammate. Yeah. But you're kind of setting yourself up to not be able to defend the appeal that our, that you know, they've already said that SHR has already said is coming. Um, Speaker 2 00:08:31 Do you think that this is kind of a warning for the rest of the playoffs though with four races to go in how teams can Speaker 3 00:08:38 Especially Speaker 2 00:08:40 Teammates win at Phoenix or Martinsville or Homestead, which they're all coming up. Yeah. Um, the playoff races for the most part have been one or dominated by non playoff drivers. Now granted, I know Redick has been great, but when he's won or been great, he hasn't been an active playoff driver. Christopher Bell won last week. But the way that we're seeing it is this just a harsh warning to teams that maybe like, hey, eight drivers left, Chase, Brisco, Denny, Hamlin, William Byron, Blaney, Bell Chasta, and Lano and Elliot let these drivers decide the race, not the teammates Speaker 3 00:09:20 Probably, I would assume that that's what they're going for. Um, but it is interesting that they put the caveat out there that they got hammered because it was on the radio. Mm-hmm <affirmative> not saying they couldn't prove it if it wasn't, but like that's just kind of, again, why are you leaking your own evidence? Because as Rodney Childers's picked up, don't say it on the radio <laugh> like I, I don't know, but it was, and Jeff Lux poll, one of the worst races ever poll the history of the poll. Um, which is unfortunate Speaker 2 00:09:59 It's not got like a 19.2% approval rate. Speaker 3 00:10:02 Yes. Yeah. Uh, which is unfortunate because the Rob's usually a very good track, very good race. But yeah, Speaker 2 00:10:08 I'm not Speaker 3 00:10:09 Gonna lie or has not been good on Rob, Speaker 2 00:10:11 This car on root course sucks Speaker 3 00:10:14 And on short tracks too. It's like, it's maybe Speaker 2 00:10:17 Still in Martinsville, it's been bad, Speaker 3 00:10:20 But Speaker 2 00:10:21 Like isn't Martinsville the final race of the run? Eight. Speaker 3 00:10:24 Yes. Speaker 2 00:10:25 That sucks. <laugh>, that's, Speaker 3 00:10:28 Yeah, it's not gonna be a great, it's not gonna be a great Martinsville race I don't believe. Um, so yeah. Other news coming out of there. Um, oh gee we got a, we got a whole bunch right? Um, Alex Bowman announced today that he's out for at least the next three races, which only leaves Phoenix left. Um, I don't believe he would come back for just the final race, but it is in front of theoretically his hometown fans cuz he is from Arizona. Um, I Speaker 2 00:11:00 Just don't see the point in him Speaker 3 00:11:01 Coming back, but I don't see the point in coming back unless, well there's one other possibility because the guy who slated to drive the 48 is theoretically competing for a championship that weekend too in Noah Rson. Um, um, so maybe that weighs into it, but I don't know. Um, Tyler Reddick has been bought out <laugh> from rcr, so he will not be at RCR next year and he intends to go to 2311 a year early. Um, good Speaker 2 00:11:39 For him. Speaker 3 00:11:39 So, you know, that'll, that'll jumpstart the, the deal at at 2311. It makes a lot of sense. I never really understood why RCR was gonna try to wait it out because in the end, if you think about it from RCRs perspective now, like they may have had the third charter, right? Let's assume that they have the third charter to do it and they don't have to go out and buy one, they have a third charter, but you still need to sponsor that car. Yeah. Who in their right, what sponsor in their right mind is gonna go. Okay, it's only a one year thing. Like after this you're just gonna go back to two cars and the driver we're sponsoring isn't gonna be with you anymore. Like what's my incentive for giving you money for a one year, maybe one race thing with no driver tie in beyond that. So financially it was never gonna make sense for rcr. Um, and then going along with that it's like okay, well is 2311 gonna go to a three car team? I don't think so. No. Kurt Bush has a press conference schedule for 8:00 AM local time this weekend on Saturday morning. Uh, local time being Vegas time. I presume he is announcing his retirement. Speaker 2 00:12:49 Are people in Vegas even awake at 8:00 AM local time? Speaker 3 00:12:52 Probably not. But it is his home track. Yeah. Uh, he's missed basically half a season with a concussion. He's 45 years old and now Speaker 2 00:13:04 I will say I will miss Kurt Bush being good for about one or two wins consistently every year. Just coming outta nowhere and just dominating race and winning Speaker 3 00:13:16 It. Yeah. Like the year I told everybody to fake Kurt Bush at Vegas and they wound up dominating and winning the race. Speaker 2 00:13:21 <laugh>. Exactly. <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:13:23 So look like this year has not been, not been easy for Kurt. It's been a new team, new manufacturer. He did make 2311 fast. They were like, he has a win. Yeah. Um, but personal life obviously not doing, not doing well. We all know he, he's in the process of getting divorced. Um, he's 45, he's dealing with a concussion. There's not really a whole lot left for him to do in this sport at this point. So it was probably a decision by I would assume Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin saying, Hey man, I don't know if we wanna shell out the money it's gonna take to get a third charter for maybe one year of a three car team. Cause you can't imagine he Speaker 2 00:14:09 Goes to the booth. Speaker 3 00:14:10 What Speaker 2 00:14:11 You think he goes to the booth? Speaker 3 00:14:13 God, I hope so. Speaker 2 00:14:15 He was actually pretty good. Like he's not, he's not the colorful personality that Clint Boyer is. Speaker 3 00:14:21 Nope, nope. Pair him with Clint really well. Speaker 2 00:14:25 But he is very good at just the a the analytics of a race and breaking that down like Kurt. Yeah. Like Clint is funny but Kurt is just, he just, he just knows him more. He can offer you more. He can teach the viewer more. Speaker 3 00:14:39 Yeah. He's also driven for like all three major manufacturers in the Yeah, that's true. So Speaker 2 00:14:44 He gets around. Um, Speaker 3 00:14:45 So yeah, I would, I would love to see him, the Fox booth. Um, I don't think NBC needs him. I think Fox would do great with him being added to the booth, whether it be for Xfinity or um, Cup for Cup. But yeah, so that's kind of the news and notes that took a while to go through. But there was, it was a busy is busy weekend nascar. Speaker 2 00:15:10 All right. We got Vegas on the schedule. Uh, just Xfinity and Cup this weekend. Same trail for me as it's been lately. Uh, it seems, I think the truck's only have like two races left on one of the, think it's next week at Miami or Martinsville. Uh, but I'll be on both playbooks this week. Four Cup and Xfinity. Xfinity will be out early Saturday morning ahead of qualifying practice with updates and then, uh, Cup Playbook will be out Saturday night into Sunday or Sunday's. Race, I don't know how many of you all are still playing NASCAR dfs, Matt and I were marveling at the NASCAR contest on Draft Kings before we started recording and they are complete dog poop. Speaker 3 00:15:57 Yeah. They're not great and Speaker 2 00:15:59 It sucks. They're, they're awful. Speaker 3 00:16:00 That's been expected as NFL continues to get further and further into the season and NASCAR starts to Speaker 2 00:16:07 Win. I've seen some NASCAR tos and I'm not, I'm not saying that their cowards for this or anything, I actually tend to agree with them, but like they've straight up like said on Twitter that they're not playing NASCAR DFS anymore. They're strictly gonna bet it. And if I was in a state that could, where I could legally bet and wager I would probably take the same approach. I would've no interest in playing DFS because the contests are crap. Yeah. Then I would much rather bet this sport at this point in the season. Speaker 3 00:16:33 I, I tend to agree with that. Um, you know, we're still gonna cover it doesn't mean we're not covering it. Like we have money in the, in the, you know, skin in the game cuz we do still in the game. Um, just saying that for the payoff at this point, it's not necessarily um, you know, the juices isn't necessarily worth the squeeze at this point. Um, so yes, Dan is covering both playbooks. Uh, my daughter's birthday party is on Saturday right. During, uh, practice and qualifying. So I don't really wanna write it blind and I also don't wanna like be at the party with the practice and qualifying going on my phone. I don't wanna be one of those dads. Um, so Dan has graciously, uh, offered to cover both this week. Doesn't mean I won't know what's going on. I'll still be around on Sunday, um, to help answer any questions anybody may have. Um, keep in mind no F one this weekend, they're going from Japan to Austin, Texas that takes a little while. Need some time to adjust to the time sounds. Um, and you wanna talk about a debacle of a race. The F1 race was an absolute debacle. It's unbelievable. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:17:46 Luckily who, most people slept through it. Speaker 3 00:17:48 I did not. I actually stayed up. I stayed up and watched it up. Yes. I wanted to see the craziness cause I wanted to see the craziness. It was nuts. It was nuts. And Max's first happened, still not sure that he won the world title cuz he thinks he's one point. That's Speaker 2 00:18:09 That, that's my other thing. How can people still watch F1 at this point in the year when you know who's already won the championship? This is always my biggest knock on EPL every year. Like how can a team win a championship with four games to go and then the rest of the season without a playoff means nothing. Speaker 3 00:18:23 Right. And this by the way, is what brought playoffs to nascar, is it Jimmy Johnson was smoking people with a point system and their concern was like one year JJ locked up the title I think with four races to go if I'm not mistaken. And then they watched the ratings absolutely tank because there's nothing left. Yeah. Like people watch, like JJs not even trying to win the guy who wins, yay. We can celebrate but it doesn't mean anything. Right. And so they brought in the playoffs because they wanted to artificially create drama as the rest of the season unfolds and not have a guy lock up a title until the very last race of the year. Does it have its wants Speaker 2 00:19:08 English Premier League? Speaker 3 00:19:10 Does it have its flaws? Sure it does. Like f1, it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens with the ratings now for the last four races of the year at Coda, Mexico City, Brazil, and Abu Dhabi because none of it, I mean sure it matters for constructive points and where they finishing money and whatever. Speaker 2 00:19:32 Well also consider this because like they're intro, they're in, they're, they're introducing a Vegas race in 1 20 23. Speaker 3 00:19:39 Yes. Next year. What Speaker 2 00:19:40 If this happens next year and like your Vegas race that's starting at like 10 11, it's Speaker 3 00:19:45 Starting at 10, it's starting at 10:00 PM Pacific, which is 1:00 AM Eastern on Sunday morning in the United States. Speaker 2 00:19:52 Like what happens if that race is meaningless and you're having this middle of the night race in Vegas that's supposed to illuminate the Vegas strip and be a visual spectacle, But what if it just means nothing and nobody wants to stay up and watch it in America? Granted you may still get some eyes overseas, but what, what happens if it's a meaningless race again? Speaker 3 00:20:12 I mean they're not gonna change, right? They haven't changed the point system in F1 since like its inception. So yeah, Speaker 2 00:20:18 At the rate ver Dabin continues to win and at the rate that Ferrari continues to screw LeClair, you have to, you gotta think of something. Speaker 3 00:20:28 I mean Speaker 2 00:20:29 As great as, as great as drive to survive was to bring eyes to the sport. If anyone has just recently jumped on and started watching F1 four this season and Verta and just sweeping everything, it's been very boring. Speaker 3 00:20:43 Yeah. I mean for the same dude, but he's done it from eight different pole. He's done it from eight different spots in the grid this season. To put that in perspective, Fernando Alonzo holds the record in F1 for most wins from different starting grid spots with nine over his career. Yeah. First happens one in from eight different spots this season. Speaker 2 00:21:08 So part of me, every time I go into an F1 race and I'm like, there's really only six drivers that I think can win. And realistically I think Speaker 3 00:21:16 There's like three Speaker 2 00:21:17 <laugh>. Well I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes. And even then I'm really just boiling it down to for staffing, Speaker 3 00:21:28 LeClair, Speaker 2 00:21:29 LeClair Perez, Hamilton and maybe Science Russell will eventually get a win. But he's not someone that like I'm uber excited about playing and I stopped playing F one DFS just because it's a crap shoot every week. Speaker 3 00:21:45 Yeah. By the way, do you see the guy who had to get a, uh, tattoo a a Lati tattoo because Lati finished in the points this week. Somebody made a bet that if Lati ever finished in the points this season, he would get a lat tattoo. And Speaker 2 00:22:02 That happens. LA should retire if he, Well he's out finish in points. Speaker 3 00:22:07 He's out of a seat next year. But all right, let's turn our attention Speaker 2 00:22:11 To banks. Yeah, let's talk nascar. Let's talk Vegas <laugh>. Uh, we have, Speaker 3 00:22:16 Sorry, I had to bring up the second Deb Bo all of Oliver Race this weekend. Speaker 2 00:22:19 No, that's all right. Uh, we have five drivers priced over 10 K on draft Kings. One of them is over 11 K, It's Denny Hamlin. Now I kind of get it because I'm looking at his last handful of races on mile and a halfs and intermediates and they've been great. Uh, Kansas won top five Texas, uh oh, that was the all star race, wasn't it? Yeah. Uh, he won Charlotte but only led 15 of 400 laps. Uh, top six at Nashville. Uh, scrolling down third at Michigan, uh, second at Kansas, two top 10 at Texas. What has has Hamel just had just very consistent and strong runs on these intermediates this year? Cuz I, I'm not opposed to him being the most expensive driver in the field, but at 11 one I'm a little hesitant. Speaker 3 00:23:10 I'm with you. I'm not necessarily opposed to him being the most expensive. We've seen this happen at intermediates 11. One is steep though. Like that's, you gotta be sure he is gonna be on the pole and he's gonna leave like a hundred something laps. That's, that's a steep price to pay. Um, look, I I don't know what we do with, I mean yeah, Texas is Texas. We're gonna disregard that cuz that whole race was terrible. Um, he was 11 one at Kansas. He started 25th and finish second, put up 70 points. But again, you need the place differential to get there or lap sl. So look, he was 11 one at Darlington. This is a pretty good one. The cookout, the, the Southern 500, he started 11 finish second had 22 fastest laps, six laps led 62 points and was 11 one. That's not, I mean that hits value, but are we so sure he is gonna pop out 20 plus fastest laps? Again, Speaker 2 00:24:23 One of my biggest complaints is that we always preview these races before practicing qualifying. So it's like, it, it really does depend. I I mean I, I'm willing to put more stock in these drivers that are playoff drivers, but at the same time it's like I'm looking at a playoff driver like Chase Psco who's 8,100 and I'm sure we'll talk to him short, uh, talk about him shortly. But it's like in this race and a gpp when it means more, it's like I do want to put more emphasis and exposure on the playoff drivers. And so I don't know if I'd necessarily want to pay up to Hamlin because I also think that there are some non playoff drivers that kind of wanna stick it to NASCAR like Kyle Larson, Kyle Tyler Reddick, even Kyle Bush home track for him it's like, I just don't feel like, and it'll all this could all change when we know the starting order and how everyone looks on speed in practice. They just don't know if we necessarily need to pay up to Hamlin at 11 one because you could take a more balanced approach or just pay down for dominators. Speaker 3 00:25:28 Yeah, I, I agree. If you're paying up for Hamlin, it's gonna hamstring the rest of your build pretty, pretty severely in Vegas one he started AIDS finished 32nd, had 21 fastest laps, 31 laps led. Um, so he did get two points, but which is a miracle considering the fact he went backwards by 24 spots. Um, but I mean he was caught up in like, he had a tire issue there if I'm not mistaken. So they've had speed on the intermediate. That's where Jgr has shown good speed. But we're gonna have to be absolutely sure he can hit value at that price tag in order to play him. Speaker 2 00:26:11 So of the other four uh drivers over 10 k, we have Chase Elliott at Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Tyler Redick. Who are you most likely to target or are you maybe looking at someone just beneath that 10 K threshold like Ross Chest Dana at 9,900, William Byron at 97 or Brian Blaney, uh, all playoff drivers and Blaney is 95. Speaker 3 00:26:33 Um, of the guys that are in the 10 K range, I'm really liking Larson and Redick right now. Sn ran very, very strong here earlier this year. He's been pretty good at our immediates. I think he also wants to stick it to nascar like you said, like, hey, why? Speaker 2 00:26:54 Oh, that's the reason I'm all over Redick this week Speaker 3 00:26:57 To stick it to nascar. Speaker 2 00:26:59 Uh, to, well more so to rcr. Speaker 3 00:27:02 Oh yeah, yeah. That's a good, we got some areas Speaker 2 00:27:06 Going. I think <laugh>, it's just ever since this news kind of dropped that he was, he was gonna leave RCR for 23 Xi I think it was what it was coming off his his first win Yes. About America when the news kind of broke. But he's just been on this tear where it's like, and we all knew it. We all knew like once he got his first win like the rest were just gonna come with ease. And that has been the case. Uh, he won the Brickyard leading 38 laps. Uh, he won Texas leading, leading 70 laps in Texas is not a great right race by any means, but hey, it's a mile and a half. He's a great driver. Uh, we talked about either earlier in the podcast or or before the podcast podcast, how three of the four remaining races really cater to Redick and Larson. And so I I'm not opposing you in that Reddit could be the guy to win this race, but at this, or I think you said Larson, I may have just fudged my names, but for me it's gonna be redic just to really make Richard Childress miss what he's losing. Speaker 3 00:28:11 Yeah, we also saw Redick flat out dominated Kansas, um, back in the, uh, well really both races. Um, he, he just fast. Um, and it didn't, it didn't really work out at either race because I think he just had car trouble but he was wicked fast at those tracks. He was pretty quick, uh, at Vegas. One started seventh, finished seventh and that's before we were really paying attention to Tyler Redick. So I'm between those two guys. I think Chase and c Beller are a little tough to peg on intermediates right now. I also think that there's better tracks for um, Chase later on in this. Like he's obviously done well at Homestead and he's done very, very well at Martinsville and he's right now 31 points to the good on the cut line. So he just has to keep having solid races and he makes it cuz to give you an idea, Lagano is second right now and he's only 11 points above the cut line. So Chase has a little bit of, he's got like a 20 point margin there that I think can have him coasting a little bit more. Speaker 2 00:29:37 Uh, what's your read on Joey Lagano this week? I'm kind of on board. Uh, he only, he had a top 15 run at Vegas earlier in the year. I do like what I saw, uh, on the intermediates overall. He won Darlington won, uh, started 34th and finished second at Kansas, or the first Kansas race was top five at the All Star race. Speaker 3 00:30:02 One gateway at uh, Texas too. Speaker 2 00:30:05 He finished second at Texas, started second finish second with 15 laps Led um, was top five at Michigan as well. I'm, I'm, I do like what I've seen from him on intermediates. Uh, honestly I think he's kind of this unheralded driver that may have a better read on this car than what we're giving him credit for. Um, and over the last handful of races as well, he's now granted and for the last five he's finished outside the top 15. But if we go back to indie road course in July 6th to Indie Road fourth of Michigan, sixth Richmond third Walkins Glen 12th, Daytona fourth at Darlington two after he was great at Darlington one and then he went on a bit of a rough stretch with some of the playoff races, but he's still in the top eight. He's currently in the top four. I think this is one of those races where we could see Lagano very well content because look, I mean even if you just look at the Laps lead, he's collecting, you know, dominator points with every race that he's run. So he's, he is contending and I do think that Vegas, which we've seen him went at before, uh, is a race that he could do well at with this card based on what we've seen at like, you know, Kansas, Texas, Darlington and Michigan. Speaker 3 00:31:25 I would agree. There's also one other strategy note to, to put in context here. Guy that wins at Vegas is locked into the championship for, right? I mean well assuming that they're in the playoffs. So if you win at Vegas, what does that what I mean you can spend the next two weeks getting everything dialed in for Phoenix. You don't have to care about the car for Miami, you don't have to care about the car for Martinsville. Obviously you're gonna go there and race and you wanna do your best but it gives you three weeks to get your car ready for Phoenix. Were the last race you're gonna need it for. It's like a team clenching the playoffs in baseball early and then spending the last two weeks of the season getting their pitching rotation set up for, to have their best stuff leading off of the playoffs. So I'm right there with you. I think Lagano might be a guy who is lower played this week because if you look at the price tag, like I think people will pay a little bit more for Blaney given the speed or buying given the speed or even go down a touch and go with Har for what they assumed to be basically the same upside. And I, I think Lagano is is a nice pull by you. Speaker 2 00:32:52 Uh, is there anybody over the nine k range? I know I kind of skipped down the Lagano. Is there anybody above him albeit Byron Blaney, Kbu Martin Church Jr on mile and a half or intermediates this year that kind of interests you? Speaker 3 00:33:08 I will say the true X of late has looked better and faster on mile and a half. I know he's had bad luck on his side when he is been fast. Um, but he was quick at Kansas and pulled off a top five finish so perhaps luck is trending on his side. Um, look now that the road courses are behind Toyota that can focus on their strength, which has been intermediates. Um, so I would say that the true X might be a guy who's not exactly focused on but has been surprisingly quick intermediates and tends to have a fair bit of dominator points at those. Um, I Speaker 2 00:33:53 Think there's also the <inaudible> for that, you know, didn't make the playoffs, hasn't had a win this year. It's a situation where the pressure is completely off of him and we've seen plenty of non playoff drivers do very well in the playoffs and win. And so if the speed is there, you know, I think people just gradually gloss over true X in terms of ownership for exposure because he is not in the playoffs and they don't think he has anything to race for. But this is still a guy that prides himself on getting a win almost every year and he hasn't done that this year and this is a track that he certainly could do it at. Now granted Martinsville is also attracted he could do it at, but we just haven't, Speaker 3 00:34:39 I mean his named for him, right? Speaker 2 00:34:40 Correct. It is <laugh>. Uh, but we just haven't seen, you know, this car perform well on short flag tracks, but this is, this is still a very good chance for him to get his first win. Speaker 3 00:34:52 Yeah, I mean in the early Vegas race he started 12, finished 8 34 fast and slaps one lap led good for 56 points. He was 8,900 bucks. He's 9,100 this week. I, I think he flies under the radar and he could wind up hitting value for you at a pretty low jack percentage. Speaker 2 00:35:15 Um, any interest in Bubble Wallace? It's kind of priced up this week. 8701 1 Kansas was great at both Kansas races. Uh, kind of hard for me to to stomach this and and think that he can pay on granted, it'll depend on how he looks in practice and qualifying and everything, but uh, for the most part I'm probably off Bubba at this price tag. Speaker 3 00:35:38 Yeah, I probably am too. Again, this is assuming we don't know how the car looks on track. If he shows up and lights the world up with single lap and five lap and 10 lap averages, heck maybe 20 lap averages then sure, but I mean he didn't run all that well here earlier in the year. Granted this is his teammate's car, but you know, I'm not sure he is worth at the uptick in price aside from the fact that he dominated at Kansas. Speaker 2 00:36:20 Let's keep on moving down. Uh, Kevin Hark 8,300 Chase Brisco, the cheapest playoff driver remaining, uh, Daniel Sws, Austin Crick, Austin Di I'm actually very surprised that Noah Gson is priced up to 7,300 uh, especially because just hasn't done a ton in the 48 when he was priced lower. Now he is is he just getting the home track narrative narrative baked into his price tag? Speaker 3 00:36:55 Probably this is technically a price drop from last week when he was 7,600. Speaker 2 00:36:59 I know, but even last week when he was 70 didn't Speaker 3 00:37:02 I mean too Speaker 2 00:37:03 High? Speaker 3 00:37:03 Yeah, he started 29, finished 23rd. That's not, that's not great. Um, trying to remember exactly how Bowman ran here earlier this year in the 48 car. Oh yeah, he won. Um, now I will say this was the famous backing into wins win for Bowman when uh, Kyle Bush was pissed about pit strategy late in the race and Bowman kind of snuck in there. Um, that being said, Bowman did put up the 48 car, did put up 21 fastest laps in 16 laps led in this race is no accident. Alex Bowman? No, not yet. I mean not in the Cup series and I'm still not a hundred percent convinced that Noah Grason is going to go all out in the 48 car. I'm still not convinced that he's not just out there doing laps and saving the a hundred percent for the Xfinity where he has a shot, a pretty good shot at the title. Um, cuz he doesn't want a risk injury. Keep in mind the reason he's filling in for Alex Bowman is cuz Bowman kissed the wall and got a concussion. So I still take grants at his word that he's only gonna go about 80% and that has me concerned that at this price tag you need more than 80% from a guy to hit value. Speaker 2 00:38:27 Right. Uh, anyone else that I briefly alluded to? Kevin Harvick, who I always have a difficult time fading when he is cheap. Uh, Chase Bsco does gimme some interest because we know we he's chasing uh, wins and a good finish. Juez Crick Austin Dylan kind of interested but no one really jumps off the page. I feel like the pricing is pretty restrictive this week. Speaker 3 00:38:52 Yeah, you're gonna have to get a little weird I think in the mid tier here with, with who you're playing cuz I think there's, there's, you know, five or so guys that pop off the page as you scroll down and look at the pricing and say this guy's usually pretty good here. Um, Austin Dylan is a guy where their intermediate uh, you know, program has gotten a lot better over the last couple of years. So I think Austin Dylan could be a sneaky guy for a top 10 finish and have a pretty solid shot hitting value. Um, I don't know how to read Austin Crick from week to week to be perfectly honest. Um, it seems like there's a decent amount of speed in the two car and then he goes out and doesn't do anything with it. Um, so I'm probably a little bit off of Cindrich this week. Speaker 2 00:39:43 I'm really interested in Almond Digger. I'm not gonna lie, I know we're not, he's probably below the price range of what we're currently talking about, but I'm very interested in Speaker 3 00:39:52 Almond Digger and 64 hundred's pretty cheap for Speaker 2 00:39:54 It's, he's pretty cheap and in 2021 he kind of, he really dominated and did very well on these intermediate tracks. Uh, he won the first Vegas race leading 44 laps in Xfinity. Uh, he was seventh and the second one, I'm just trying to go through them very quick. Uh, I know he was great at Michigan. Uh, and this was all just 2021. Mind you, um, really good intermediate. It's this year it's been a bit of a regression. It just seems like colleague was investing a little bit more of their time and research into the Cup Series team to get that going a little bit more. Um, but Daniel's also coming off back to back win and I'm pregnant. Most of his success has come on road courses this year. Uh, but still he was seventh at Michigan, sixth at Kansas fourth at Texas two. He was top 10 in the first Vegas race with 32 laps led. I mean if the team is investing more in the intermediates, I'm not saying he's a dominator in this race, but I do think that it's 6,400. I don't care where he starts if it's top 15, top 10, he is a guy that I think I might gamble on, not just in GPP but even if I was to play cash games on Sunday, he's that cheap where all he really needs to do if he starts in the top 10 is just hold his position and he can probably be optimal. Speaker 3 00:41:15 Yeah. Uh, he is run two intermediate tracks in the Cup series this year. His average starting position is 24 and a half, that's one 35th place clerk one 14 place start his average finished position 14 and a half including a top 10 and a 19 place finish. So on average he's getting you a top 15 finish and he is moving up several spots. I don't know why he's priced down probably cuz it's not a road course, but the guy has moved up very nicely in almost every cup race he's been in this year. Um, so yeah, I would, and keep in mind he's in this car next year so he may as well take it for spins now and get used to it and see what needs to change and whatever for next year. So I'm with you on Almond Dinger. Um, in terms of a couple other guy, I don't know what to do about Chase Brisco with everything swirling around him and him like sneaking in and needing the help of a teammate, his nascar. Put it like, I, I don't know, what's your read on on Brisco this week? Speaker 2 00:42:27 Uh, probably gonna be just one of those guys. I wanna see how he doesn't practice, but by default if I'm making 20 lineups, um, I'm kind of locked into getting exposure to the cheapest playoff driver that's available. He is coming in with three straight top 10 finishes. So, so there's certainly a, and he is, he's putting up DFS points like he has 43, 30 and 64 DFS points in his last three races at 8,100, even 30 points I can stomach in cash games cuz he started fifth at ADE and finished 10th. Um, five straight races in the top 15. And I know that Brisco is not, he's not a lock by any means. Um, really we haven't seen him. We, we all thought that Phoenix was, was a breakout race for him early in the year when he started six, LED a hundred laps, had 40 fastest laps, had 93 DFS points at just a seven K salary. Speaker 2 00:43:29 And we all thought that this was like a breakout race for him, but we really didn't see it much after that. But he still alive in the playoffs and so I'm inclined to just get exposure exposure based off that. However, I do think that fading him is an interesting leverage point because I think that there might be an emphasis, and if I'm just saying this from the perspective that of I'm trying to project how other TFS are going to hype up the playoff drivers for this race. And while I also want to get exposure to the cheapest playoff driver, I also know he's, he's probably the worst playoff driver remaining, which is why he is the cheapest, you know, we've seen a horrifically low floor from him. I mean, you know, from Wains Glen to Darlington too, you know, you got nine points at Darlington or nine points at Watkins Glen, five at Daytona and seven at Darlington. Speaker 2 00:44:28 So he go out there and bust. And so if ownership is gonna be elevated on him simply because he is a playoff driver, then I do think that this is a decent leverage spot and it's one that I'm not gonna feel bad about considering we just talked about guys like, uh, AJ Alman, dinger, I'm pretty sure I have more faith in Brad Klowski if he keeps starting outside the top 30. Uh, Michael McDowell's been a top 10 machine this year and so I don't necessarily think we need to fit Brisco in, but I would fade him hoping that he's gonna be popular. Speaker 3 00:45:05 I would agree with basically everything you just said. All Speaker 2 00:45:08 Right, cool. Moving on. Oh, are we moving on? Speaker 3 00:45:14 Uh, I was just counting up, I was counting up how many times he's gone over his, uh, draft King's average salary and it's less than half the race or uh, average points for race. Speaker 2 00:45:28 Yeah, like he's 8,100 and he's not even averaging 25 draft kings points per Speaker 3 00:45:32 Race. Right. He's also only top 25 draftings points less than half the races. So that tells you that he's had some absolute doozies that negate the fact that he put up negative 25, uh, in the first Vegas race. And I think I saw a negative 31 somewhere, negative 13. Um, at the ver Talladega race they get two coda. Um, so yeah man, he, he can go all the way from 93 to negative 25. That's, it's like Nebraska temperature cages. That's not what I want Speaker 2 00:46:09 <laugh>, Speaker 3 00:46:09 That's not what I want from a DFS driver. Speaker 2 00:46:12 All right, let's keep on um, keep on keeping on uh, Chris Busher, Eric Jones. I always feel like we give them mentions cuz they've had really strong years. Both have won a race this year. Jones has been, I don't know, pretty damn good. 14 top tens. He's been less three races. He was six at Texas, six at Talladega when, you know, almost kind of could have won 11th last week when he was a really good GPP play. He did win at Darlington kind of on a role Speaker 3 00:46:48 Kind of. Yeah, but anytime I mention him people go nuts cuz they think I'm playing favorites when I'm like, I just like to hang with the guy when he is hot then I leave him when he is not and right now he is he he's going pretty well give you an idea he's averaging 10 more DFS points on DK per race than <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:47:09 I know you were gonna say that. Speaker 3 00:47:11 Just saying just saying he's cheaper too. Yeah, by like a thousand dollars. Speaker 2 00:47:20 Uh, what's your read on? I don't know really no interest with Eric Alma roll this week. Really? Like not until Martinsville Phoenix? Speaker 3 00:47:29 Yeah I would, I would presume so. I mean I unless you're, unless we're going with an HR pissed off stack, right? Yeah. <laugh> are so pissed that they are just gonna come and go 1, 2, 3, 4 at Vegas. Just to, just to shove it to nascar cuz remember when Kevin Hart got dinged for having the um, the rear window would bend in or whatever and then he got suspended or his crew got suspended and they came back and then he dominated and he got out and pointed right to his rear window like see it's fixed and I can still win <laugh>. Are we in for that kind of a weekend for hr? No. Cause Tony Stewart basically said if I didn't have prior scheduled like sponsor show up appointments, I wouldn't be going to a race the rest of the season on that past. Like okay but so I tend to be with you but I'm just saying there might be a narrative there to, to just go, I mean I'm sure it's not gonna be Eric Aaro that voices the frustration though Speaker 2 00:48:44 <laugh>. No, uh, that's, that's just not in his nature. Um, what is the approach with Michael McDowell this week? Trying to pull up his uh, numbers on intermediates. He was 11th at Texas two sixth at Darlington too. Uh, I'm trying to find other noteworthy finishes Speaker 3 00:49:03 Back to Amarillo though real quick. He did finish sixth at Vegas earlier the year. Speaker 2 00:49:08 Yeah, but that was also when he started the season really hot. Yeah, Speaker 3 00:49:12 He started, he finished fifth of Daytona, US finished sixth at auto club and finished sixth at Vegas and then fell off a fricking cliff. Speaker 2 00:49:20 Yeah, Speaker 3 00:49:23 I look I'm with you. I'm just saying I, I'm pointing it out that <laugh> people should know he did finish six but uh, McDowell, I Speaker 2 00:49:33 Know McDowell didn't finish well at Vegas the first one. Uh, but following that, you know he was seventh at Darlington one top 15 at Texas, one top 10 at Charlotte. Uh, he was also scrolling down sixth at Darlington, two 16th at Kansas, two 11th at Texas two. Speaker 3 00:49:57 Yeah that Kansas two by the way, he put up 34 DK points at 6,700 bucks. Speaker 2 00:50:02 Yeah Speaker 3 00:50:03 That's pretty close to five x Speaker 2 00:50:06 Pretty much is cuz I think five x would be 33 and a half and Speaker 3 00:50:10 Yeah so and now he's 6,200 so he is 500 cheaper than he wast. Speaker 2 00:50:15 I think what always makes McDonald's such a gr such a difficult place that he always qualifies. Well like I had him boldly in my cash line up last week at the role even though he started 11th but he ran top 10 for most of that race despite the really bad finish at the end. And so I think we just need to come to terms with ourselves like he's a top 15 driver this year, just not in the top 15 car. Yep. And there is top 10 upside once again this week. Speaker 3 00:50:45 I would agree. Speaker 2 00:50:46 Okay, great. Uh, scrolling outside of McDo does get kind of crappy. I think I'll play Tenhouse a little bit if he continues to qualify poorly. Uh, I mean here we are in the dumpster bin. We're looking at Justin Haley, Todd Di Harrison, Burton, Todd Gillon. Really four drivers that we can probably go to if we need the salary relief. Mildly interested in land and Castle Speaker 3 00:51:12 You're just gonna say so am I Speaker 2 00:51:15 Because he hasn't really been awful. Speaker 3 00:51:18 Yep. Speaker 2 00:51:19 Like he's gonna start outside the top 30 and if he finishes 25th or better he could be optimal. Speaker 3 00:51:28 I mean he is every 31.3 TK point to raise now Speaker 2 00:51:33 He's finished 25th or better in sixth straight races dating back to Daytona two, which isn't, which doesn't sound great to the casual listener of the podcast or anyone in general, but when you're looking at where he's starting, it's phenomenal. Very good. Speaker 3 00:51:56 Four, I'm just counting up his total top 25, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. He's got 10 finishes of 25th or better and he is raised 15 times. Speaker 2 00:52:12 It's pretty good. Speaker 3 00:52:14 Well Ashley, he's raised 14 outta the ones I'm counting cause one of 'em was the Allstar Open, which we're not counting. Um, yeah that's, I mean you're finishing top 25 in 10 to 14 races. That's 70% of the time. Like yeah that's pretty good. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:52:37 Uh, Corey Laro, BJ McCloud, Cody wear jj e uh, hard at find it hard to join. Much excitement there. Speaker 3 00:52:45 Yeah, I would agree. Um, I took a shot on LA Joy at the, at the ral. It, it worked out. Um, but that's a, you know, it was a one off thing mainly cuz he had run better than he qualified and the track history didn't bear out that you should play him. Yeah. It's just one of those times where take a shot and it works. Um, yeah, I will say that he tends to finish a little better than where he qualifies. So if you're in a pinch he has run decently well at intermediates this year. Not, we're not talking about a guy that we need to top 10 from. Right. We're just talking about a guy who if you put up 20 points, we're happy. Speaker 2 00:53:29 I mean we were talking the joy right? Speaker 3 00:53:33 Yeah. I mean he finished. Speaker 2 00:53:34 Yeah. I mean he Speaker 3 00:53:35 Finished 15th of Vegas earlier this year. Speaker 2 00:53:37 He can finish in the top 20. Speaker 3 00:53:39 Yes. He's capable of it. I'm just saying we don't need him to usually Speaker 2 00:53:47 Yeah, I wish DK had like a, a top 20 column cuz Lejo only has two top tens but he's got a handful of top twenties and that's routinely a guy. And for a guy who's under 5k, if you can sneak outta the top 20 from him and a dpp you'll take it cause it's like um, DFS strategies. Uh, you taking any two Dominator approach? Maybe three here Speaker 3 00:54:11 Hold on one second. Seven. Speaker 2 00:54:13 I feel like when we get to the short tracks we might legitimately be talking about one dominator build. Speaker 3 00:54:19 Yes. Speaker 2 00:54:19 Which seems insane because so many drivers are gonna fall off the lead lab. Speaker 3 00:54:23 Uh, yeah I would, I would agree that short tracks are one, this one's probably a two. I dunno he's had a lot of top twenties. He's 10. Speaker 2 00:54:37 Yeah I'd say he's probably close to like 15, 16, 17. Speaker 3 00:54:43 13. 13 I think is the 13 or 14 is the count I got for <inaudible> top twenties. So that's not bad. Speaker 2 00:54:51 We're excited about top tens for MacDowell. You have to be excited about top twenties for Lejo. Speaker 3 00:54:55 Agreed. Agreed. And the other nice thing about Lejo is that if you put Lejo and McDowell a lineup that's gonna get ugly in a hurry. But you can get any hand one and you can get Tyler Redick and we still got 8,800 bucks left for the other two. So let's go with LA who you also liked and then that gives us 8,700, which is anybody from Bob down Speaker 2 00:55:22 Go Larson. You could go Lejo, McDowell, Lagon Larson, Reddick Blaney. Speaker 3 00:55:30 That's why you play Corey Lejo. Speaker 2 00:55:33 Yeahs pretty get that top 20. Uh, yes. Any other strategies, advice for this weekend or just advice people will be in the discord all week. Speaker 3 00:55:41 Um, I mean we saw a nice amount of passing in Vegas earlier this year. Remember the intermediates have been a little bit of a free for all, um, in this car. I don't mean chaotic, I just mean like guys have been able to pass. There's been multiple crews so we should expect more of the same. There was several lead changes under green at Vegas earlier this year. So if you wanna do like two dominators, that's kind of what I would do. Let me double check exactly what like, I don't remember exactly the breakdown of um, lapse led for Vegas earlier this year, but let me go ahead and pull that up here in just one second. Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Good old friends racing reference Racing reference. There we go. Let's see, we had how many lead? Nobody cracked a hundred lap lead in the springs. Speaker 3 00:56:45 Most we had was Chas aim leading 83 and then Kyle Bush was 49. Larson at 27, Bowman at 16. We did have Denny Hamlin with 31 until his car went to put. Um, so I would, I would look. Do I think that was a one off? Maybe. So if we're, if we're considering a one off, I'm building with two dominators. If we're not, if we think that the spring race is indicative of what we're gonna see here, I would go for finished position of a guy leads lap, Congrats. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, which is different than just about any other intermediate we've built for. Speaker 2 00:57:33 All right, well pretty solid preview of Vegas for this weekend. Reminder, I am on both playbooks. Please be patient with me. Uh, very rare that I've had to really dig deep for Cup Series knowledge and analysis. But uh, Matt, thank you so much for your time. Enjoy your daughter's birthday this weekend. Best of luck to you and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:57:55 Best of luck.

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