September 08, 2022


NASCAR DFS Podcast: Hollywood Casino 400

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Hollywood Casino 400
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Hollywood Casino 400

Sep 08 2022 | 00:45:24


Show Notes

The 2022 NASCAR playoffs head for their second race with a trip to the heartland. Kansas Speedway is the host for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday. Matt Selz and Dan Malin preview the race and break down the drivers for this pivotal playoff race in the Round of 16 to help you win money in DFS NASCAR.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on F nation. Welcome back, apologies for missing last week. But I have all the faith in the world that Matt and ed filled in admirably for Darlington, but this is thei alarm NASCAR, DFS podcast talking Kansas this week. Second to last regular season race for Xfinity. Uh, second playoff race for the cup series and coming out of Darlington, uh, a non playoff driver, getting the win in what was a absolutely wild race, pretty rough day for Hendrick motor sports. Uh, Kyle Larson ran both Xfinity and couple last week somehow came back from multiple laps down in both races, um, was looking like a promising day for Toyota and JGR and then, uh, engine failure for MTG and Kyle Bush, wild race. Very odd, very strange. But Eric Jones, uh, gets his second crew Darlington win. So it, it was awesome to see that 17th different winner. I don't know, like there, there, we could do a whole podcast just talking about Darlington and all the storylines that came away from it. Speaker 3 00:01:24 Yeah. It was nuts. Um, in Jeff Glock's poll, it was the number one rated race of the season. I'm not necessarily sure. I agree with that, but like in wildness it was certainly way up there. Yeah. Um, like Kyle Bush had an absolutely dominating car. Right. And then it just went put, like, it just started smoking. Um, and MTJ had the same, had the same thing. And I just feel like you could hear in that interview, like he was trying to hold back tears man. Cause like, Speaker 2 00:01:54 Yeah, it's just been such a rough season for him. And he had that race in his hands to win with like less than 40 to go. And it was just engine failure that took it from him. Speaker 3 00:02:04 Right. And he's like, and he brought up a good point. Like he's like when we run like crap, nothing happens. But when we run well, everything in the world grows wrong. <laugh> so, um, and then Kevin Hart caught fire, like literally on fire. Um, in one of the crazier fires we've seen cuz it was apparently caused like sucking in rubber into the engine, which usually not a great idea. So they're changing, um, some of the design of the cars this week for Kansas to try to prevent that from happening. Uh, they're turning part of it. Uh, part of like the rocker panel into steel there's extra vents to help blow stuff out as well. So it was nuts. Um, case Elliot went in with a big old lead and now is like seventh in the standings. I think something like that, like it was not, it was not a great day there. Um, so we'll see Kansas is supposed to be team, but usually chaos rains when they show up at Kansas, cuz you can put the car anywhere you want to. It's one of the driver's favorite tracks. There's a little bit of, um, you know, tire wear involved is, is just a great, it's just a great track. So we will see what happens. <laugh> for the, for Kansas now that uh, Darlington is behind the drivers and the teams, Speaker 2 00:03:32 Uh, still pretty awesome to see. I mean it, it sucks that, you know, Eric Jones gets the win and, and that's hardly like the most exciting thing that we can talk about, but obviously awesome to see him win. He was a very friendly Speaker 3 00:03:42 High Speaker 2 00:03:44 I'm guessing Richard Petty gave him one. Speaker 3 00:03:46 Yeah. He, he, Richard Petty gets his hats from a certain place and he took Eric Jones there to go get a hack. Very nice. Uh, Eric Jones posted it on Twitter. Dave moody is pushing where Eric Jones to wear it for driver intros. <laugh> the rest of the playoffs. So we'll see what happens. Speaker 2 00:04:03 Um, alright, so we turn our attention to Kansas. Um, pretty basic, well, I won't say basic cuz you actually can describe this track BA better than I can, but it's a mile and a half. They'll call it cookie cutter. We do get, was it 400 laps for this race? Speaker 3 00:04:18 Uh, well 400 miles. So 260 west Speaker 2 00:04:21 2 67. Um, Speaker 2 00:04:24 All three series in play this weekend. Yes. Uh, trucks racing Friday night, Xfinity Saturday afternoon and cup Sunday afternoon. Uh, we are getting the NFL effect finally. Um, the truck series is it's it's it's it's ugly for contest. The $4 20 max Chrome horn is rewarding $600 to first. So you can max enter for $80 and go against 1700 other people. And if you take it down, you're only winning 600 bucks, not my cup of tea. Um, this is gonna be probably a time of year where I'm fading just back to three lineups tops for the truck and Xfinity series. I honestly might even just do one lineup for Xfinity series. If anyone was in the discord last week, you heard my frustration with those drivers. I'm fed up losing money on those guys. Sure. It may have been my fault because I was three for three in terms of exposures with Anthony Alfredo. Speaker 2 00:05:21 But if he doesn't, if he's not sick and he's not dry heaving, then my li all three of my line was finishing the green. I said, I probably wasn't gonna take anything down, but I was confident that my lines would have at least made me money, um, and know for my rent. But, uh, you know, the coverage will still be there this week, at least next week. Uh, I'm on vacation, but Matt's gonna cover at least one of the races for me. But, uh, I guess most of my NASCAR DFS bankroll is going to the cup series because they're the only series with meaningful contests still. Speaker 3 00:05:55 They're also the, well, I mean, trucks has been relatively predictable, but the cup series is also, um, now that the tire issue is out of the way, um, they've also been relatively predictable. Um, I feel like we've had pretty good reads on like, I feel like my read on Darlington was pretty good until cars caught fire mm-hmm <affirmative> right. Like I was in for Kevin hark for a top 10 finish, like all over the place and he was ninth and then his car caught fire, like just one of those days. Um, so yeah, the contest size will continue to shrink as we get further into NFL season, cuz NFL just eats everything. Just everything fantasy related turns to NFL for the last four months of the year. Um, and for good reason, it's the most popular fantasy sport in the world. So the money maker, um, you know, content will still be here, still protecting each of the races every week until the championship at Phoenix in early November. Speaker 3 00:07:00 Uh, and then F1 ends a couple of weeks after that, which we'll still have coverage for that as well. So, um, Kansas look is not necessarily a cookie cookie cutter mile and a half track. It's got multiple groups of racing. Uh, it's got progressive banking in the corners, which allows for the multiple groups of racing. Um, they have set up this track so well each of the last four or five races here that it's produced great races, regardless of the, um, you know, old car, the next gen car or tires or whatever, it's produced some great races. There's passing all over the place. Um, they are running slightly different tires here this week than they did in may. They're running tires that I think were run at Pocono earlier this year, not the Kansas, um, tires that were run here earlier this year. I'm not sure exactly why. Speaker 3 00:07:56 Um, I don't know if they were concerned about tire wear from a previous race and didn't want to do it, but I feel like that was mostly caused cuz the teams were setting the tires too low on PSI. Yeah. Oh yeah. They were setting them too low. And then by the time they came up to, um, you know, temp and pressure, the damage had been done and then they blow. So we'll see. I'm not sure if it's gonna change all that much in the cars, but it is something to, uh, make note of for Sunday's race. Speaker 2 00:08:32 All right. Just want to dive into the player pool or was there anything else? Oh, what's going on with north Wilkesboro? Is it hosting the all star race next year? Speaker 3 00:08:41 I don't know. All I've seen today confirmed is that they are not, uh, putting the, so the plan was in October, they were gonna host a whole bunch of dirt races. Yeah. Right. Cause they were gonna rip up the old surface and then while it was because it was ripped up, there's only dirt under it. So they may as well run dirt races on dirt. That's already there before they repave. Right. But they made an announcement today that they're not <laugh> hosting the dirt series races and they're not ripping up the old asphalt. So I don't, I don't know if they confirmed the all star race was gonna be there. That would be awesome. Speaker 2 00:09:21 Saw a rumors weren't going around. And I think they have like a big announcement tomorrow and you know, Dale, Jr's gonna be there. A lot of other, you know, big names are gonna be there as well. So I figured Speaker 3 00:09:33 Wouldn't shock me. It Speaker 2 00:09:34 Would be some kind of announcement with some race coming back. Speaker 3 00:09:37 Yeah. So slap shoes might get his, uh, his wish if you don't follow slap shoes on YouTube, he's a great racing, uh, guy to follow. But he came up with a coup I think it was about a year ago. He came up with his ultimate 20, 22 cup schedule and it was crazy. But part of it was you host a midweek, um, basically all star race at north Wilkesboro Speedway in between like the Coke 600 and something else because everybody's based in Charlotte, north Wilkesboro is only like 90 minutes up the road. So it's not that bad. So we'll see. Um, it's not gonna be the clash. I can tell you that much, cuz they've already announced that the clash is gonna be back at the LA Coliseum to start next year, which is gonna be awesome. So that would be sweet if the all star race was at north Wilkesboro, considering the fact that Texas has hosted the all star race two years in a row and Texas stole north Wilkesboro spot on the schedule. So that'd be a little bit of redemption. Speaker 2 00:10:37 Just one more reason to hate Texas. Speaker 3 00:10:40 <laugh> there's a lot of reasons to hate Texas Speaker 2 00:10:43 <laugh>. Uh, anyway, uh, so we'll dive into Kansas. Uh, if we look back at the spring race, Toyota's had a hell of a day, uh, Kurt Bush, one Kyle Bush finished, uh, third led 18 laps with 37 fastest laps. Uh, he was followed by Denny Hamlin, fourth, Christopher Bell, fifth, March X and six, like, and even bubble wa was this, one of those raises where Bubba worked his way into the top 10, like three different times and his pit crew was screwing him. Speaker 3 00:11:11 Yes. This was the race in which he passed. He had 60 quality passes, uh, in this race, a finished 10th. Now, if you don't remember what a quality passe is, it means he passed a top 15 car under green, 60 times in a 200 something lap race. <laugh> that's insane. Um, that also tells you he had a really fast car and his pit crew, he screwed him. So Toyota put, I believe all six cars on the top 10, right? Speaker 2 00:11:45 They did. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:11:46 First, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and 10th. Mm-hmm <affirmative> yeah. So it was a good day for Toyota, which is also by the way, why they are the, uh, prohibitive favorites to win poll. According to draft Kings, like the top four guys to win poll right now are the JGR, uh, grouping all at six to one. Uh, Toyota is going off at plus one 20 for the manufacturer to win the race on Sunday. Um, and most of the Toyotas are leading the, you know, odds to win top three top like betting Denny Hamlin for a top 10 finish <laugh> you're gonna need to put in a whole bunch of money to win, basically nothing back. So not a great, not a great bet there. Speaker 2 00:12:34 Well, if we turn to DFS, uh, JGR does make up. I mean, they're all in the top eight, uh, price drivers, um, bubble Wallace, eight grand. I think that's reasonable, especially at, we've seen out of him this year and then Ty Gibbs who is probably gonna finish out the season, uh, with, uh, 23 Xi, uh, filling in for Kurt Bush. Uh he's 72 and he's depending on where he starts, like the kid has top 15 upside. We've seen it the last two races, but for the most part, like it's easy to understand why JGR are the favorites here are, could this be a week though? Cuz we thought this going into Sonoma completely different track type. I get it. But it always seems like with the next gen car, uh, it seems like the guys that we think, you know, go out, crush it and win. Uh, they either, you know, show up and look like crap or they show up. And in the case of last week, the Toyota's and Kyle Bush and Martin Georges junior, they dominate. But then the engine blows. It just seems like it's whoever we think should go out and dominate with this next gen card at a particular track. It just doesn't seem to go that way. Speaker 3 00:13:39 I mean, that's a, that's a fair point, but I don't really, we Speaker 2 00:13:43 Can't predict it Speaker 3 00:13:44 It's I don't really wanna put this Juju into the universe, but what are the odds that they all fail again? <laugh> like, I mean, although in fairness to John and Pemba who asked me, uh, last week about me picking Kyle Larson, uh, do I feel like his engine would survive the race again? Cuz it blew up there in, it blew up at Darlington in may and sure enough early in the race, his engine started to have trouble. So I was like, oh, making me eat my words there. So I, you know, DK is pretty well locked in on JGR right now. Um, based on pricing, I mean Denny Hamlin at 11 one that's pretty steep price. It's a pretty steep price. I mean he, he did look good at Darlington, um, but he's also looked good at Darlington. Previously Hamlin has only finished. I mean, yeah, he finished top five earlier this year, but that was his first top five and a little bit at Kansas. So, um, I don't know. I mean, if you're asking me about a Toyota, I want it's Bubba Wallace at that price 8,000 bucks he's in look, no, either 23, 11 car finished top 10 at Kansas. And the one that he's in won that race, uh, pretty handily by the way, the thing dominated that race. He also turned around and had a very good run at Darlington last weekend, which has not been a great track for bubble Wallace. He had a pretty fast car and just kept it there all night. Um, so that's an intriguing Toyota for me. Speaker 2 00:15:21 I feel like for me, it's gotta be Kyle Bush. What like I'm ki I'm kind of with you that the price tag and ham is a little too high, but I'd be okay. Paying ten nine for Kyle Bush. Just knowing that if, if, if the center cause the car was awesome last week. Yes. For both him and Tru X, you know, and, and I'm going to just continue to put my faith back in them and, and Kyle Bush has, you know, very strong history here. He finished third year in the spring and collected some dominator points with a 1 24 driver reading. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:15:50 Yeah. 37 fastest laps on 18 laps lit. So Speaker 2 00:15:53 He, as of Wednesday night when we're recording this, he's the one that I want to pay up for. Speaker 3 00:15:58 Yeah, I would, I would agree. I think the, I think look, the run of bad luck that Kyle Bush has had this year is just not sustainable. Like at some point it's gotta turn in his, in his favor and we can sit there and say, well, he is only in the playoffs because, um, Briscoe wrecked out Redick at Bristol dirt and Kyle Bush got there cuz he wouldn't have been within the points without the win. Okay. But he's been really close to a win like four separate times this year. Mm-hmm <affirmative> right. Like he won the dirt race. Okay. But he had to be in position to, to capitalize on that. Um, he probably should have won Nashville until he made a stupid decision on pitting. He Speaker 2 00:16:41 Was great at gateway and the Coke 600. Speaker 3 00:16:43 Right. So like this whole summer swing it's similar tracks. He was very, very good. Probably should have won Pocono. So look and if the tires are the same as Pocono. Oh well, okay. He ran very, very well there too. So mm-hmm <affirmative> yeah. Kyle boys and Bob Wallace are probably the two Toyotas that I want the most right now. Um, just based on, I can't make myself pay over 11 grand for Denny Hamlin. Speaker 2 00:17:09 Um, after a disastrous week, uh, at Darlington for the Chevys <laugh> what's the approach this week. Um, Kyle Larson, you know, had to come back from multiple laps down, still finished 12, Speaker 3 00:17:27 Hey it's like it's Coke 600 or yeah. It's like the Coke 600. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:17:31 I mean like I respect that. That's just unreal because I mean, if you played him in DFS and I had a lot of Kyle Larson, um, he was in the example items that I posted in the discord channel. I was pretty pissed off and disappointed as soon as I saw that he was multiple apps down, but then a Thum, something in my head collected, I'm like, well, you know, he was multiple apps down in the Xfinity race and he still came back onto the legal app and sure enough, it happened. And you know, I, I knew at that point, like there weren't enough lap led for him to like truly dominate it. And I was like, maybe he can finish top five. Didn't happen. But still when you can claw back and still finish 12th after being multiple apps down, um, at a track like Darlington, it's just incredibly impressive. But you know, obviously we need to focus on, they need to focus on the playoffs and we're just here trying to predict the best DFS plays. Speaker 3 00:18:22 Do we think, think I'm like who a big fan of Larson this week. Speaker 2 00:18:26 Okay. Go on. Speaker 3 00:18:28 So if we look back at the last four Kansas races, right, he finished, uh, he finished second in the spring race here. So he broke up the Toyota chain and he won this race last year. Okay. So he is finished. He won P two in the last two trips to Kansas. Then if you look at his average driver rating in that time, his average driver rating in the last four races here is 1 28, 7. Kevin hark is next at 1 0 7, 4 Speaker 2 00:19:00 <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:19:01 Okay. In terms of DK points, the average amount of DK points, Kyle Larson puts up in a, in a Kansas race in the last four. Races is 84.2. Kevin hark is next 27 points behind him at 57 2 Jesus. So Larson was fast in the spring here. He was fast last week, despite the hangups, um, he's over those last stretch, I would say he's kind of been consistently fast, just not like in a position to dominate cuz still the most laps he's led in a race all season is the 51. He led to the Coke 600 in the second half of that race. But I will say that he ran very, very well here in the spring. Um, I'm not sure a lot of people are gonna be on him because of the price tag and they'll just look, oh, Toyota's awesome here. So let's just get shares of Toyotas and whatnot, but I'm not so sure he had, he had a pretty good race here at 11 one in the spring. He started third finish second, 19 fastest laps, 29 labs led for 59 points at 11 one. So he still hit almost six X value even at 11 one. Speaker 2 00:20:29 Uh, what's you read on William Byron actually you nailed the read on William Byron last week. Um, yeah, I it's, it's almost as if they're no longer experimenting with his car and they're just giving him the right setup. Um, yep. Yeah. So still employee this week, I'm assuming the price tag did not really move at all from where it was a week ago. Um, and he got a, a healthy amount of dominator points for 54 points at an $8,900 salary. He had six X value easily on draftings uh, still got a top 10. Do we, do we think Byron can replicate that again? Speaker 3 00:21:04 I do. Um, he's been pretty quick here in the past. I mean, if we're looking at DK points again in the last four Kansas races, he's fourth in the field, uh, in terms of average, um, DK points put up, he's got three top tens in that span, which only a handful of drivers can say, um, his average finishes in the top five here. Um, so, or sorry, top seven drivers here, um, in that span. So yeah, I'm perfectly fine with William Byron. They BA he basically said I'm no longer the test car. Right. So what happened with William Byron for those that may have missed that little note in the playbook, he got the two wins early this year, right? He, he had his second win by Martinsville, which was April 9th. So they said you're guaranteed to be in the playoffs at this point. Right. Speaker 3 00:21:56 Cuz nobody's winning. You're not gonna not make it with two wins. Right. Right. So then they started saying, okay, you're the test car. So let's test the crazy ups and see what happens. And that's why since Martinsville everybody's like, oh, we only had one top 10 and that was at Sonoma. Um, yeah. Then they took the, the training, you know, test sticker his car and he went out and let a whole bunch of laps last week. So I'm perfectly fine playing William Byron. I don't, I'm not sure anybody picks up on that again this week. Um, and for those who are wondering he's $800 cheaper this week than he was back here in may. So Speaker 2 00:22:38 What about Bowman coming off a top 10? Uh, he is got three straight finishes in the top 15, although he does tend to still qualify relatively well. Um, except for Michigan, but it's not really lighting it up and there's not, not a great ceiling for him. It looks like right now. Speaker 3 00:22:59 Yeah. I would agree with that. Speaker 2 00:23:00 His crew chief is on the way out. Speaker 3 00:23:02 Correct? Uh, his crew chief had announced like before Darlington that, Hey folks, I'm, I'm decent and I'm piecing that after this seems like a weird time to announce that, but whatever. Speaker 2 00:23:15 Is there a rumor going around that Alex Bowman might leave Hendrick? Speaker 3 00:23:20 I think there's a lot of rumors going around. Okay. <laugh> I think there's a lot of rumors going on. Somebody tried to blame Bob PS for something he never even wrote the other day on Twitter. Speaker 2 00:23:29 <laugh> it sounds like Twitter. Speaker 3 00:23:31 Like they, they found some text somewhere that said Kyle Bush would rather go to RCR than colleague because RCR is closer to winning a championship than colleague, which is factually correct. And somebody was like way to go Bob to throw colleague under the bus and say they suck. And Bob's like, I didn't write this. <laugh> also, it just says our CR is closer to a title, which is true. They have their two drivers in the playoffs and REDX one, two or three times this year. Um, so I, I don't know. I think there's a whole lot of rumors going around. I'm not sure that Bowman is up for a contract. Like I think he's under contract for at least another year. So we'll see it's possible, but I don't know who Hendrick would replace him with right off the bat if he left. Speaker 2 00:24:25 Um, alright. We can turn our attention to Penske though, because Joey Lagano does have five, top six finishes in his last six races, um, egg on my face. Uh, I had him in some GPP builds last week. I did not have him as a cash game play, but he did lead out a, a good amount of early lap sled. And if he didn't have a slope pit probably could have collected more dominator points as well, but still at 9,800, he went out and put up 64 points on draft Kings and draft Kings rewarded him by dropping his price tag $500. Speaker 3 00:25:00 Yeah. It's kind of weird with the, like you go out and have a good day, you get a price decrease and then you go out and have an okay day. Your price jumps through the roof. Speaker 2 00:25:09 <laugh> Speaker 3 00:25:10 It's, it's kind of odd. Um, Lao's been solid here. I can't really say otherwise. He's kind of on, on every other race run here right now. Um, if we look back at the last four races here, he's finished, he won four races ago. Then he finished 17th. Then he won or then, then he finished ninth, two races ago. So this race last year, and then he finished 17th year in may. So if you like trends, maybe he finishes in the top 10 this week. Cuz that's what the trend says. Uh, otherwise he's finishing exactly 17th cuz that's what he seems to do. He's either gonna finish in the top 10 or finish exactly 17th. Um, I don't know. It's been two years now since I've been able to get a good read on Joey Lagano and I, I don't know why. Um, but I mean he had an okay drive here earlier this year, the car wasn't wasn't great. Didn't really do a whole lot. Um, I mean it did move up well, but then he stalled out, right? Cause he started 34th and finished 17th. But like is that Speaker 2 00:26:22 Kind of what we should just expect from Penske in general? Like Blaney's been tough to watch at time. It's very tough to roster. His price is down to 8,900 when it was just, you know, it was over, it was 10 grand for Daytona, but salaries don't really matter for Daytona, but you know, it it's almost like Lagano is the only driver at Penske I trust right now unless bla or Crick are offering significant position differential. Speaker 3 00:26:49 Yeah. I would agree with that. Um, Crick is just, he's just a guy like on the Daytona of 500 congrats, but like the list of freakish winners of the Daytona 500 is pretty long. Um, since then he hasn't really done a whole lot. I mean he got hot some point in the summer. Um, but like outside of that, he hasn't really done a whole heck of a lot. He ran okay. Here in the spring, went back about seven spots, not great. Um, I mean Blaney look, Blaney's run well here. Right. But you can say that about basically every track for Ryan Blaney except for Darlington. Um, he just doesn't have the results. So what, like, I don't know what to do with Blaney at this point. And I know Ross is like gonna have a seizure, but Speaker 2 00:27:46 Russel play until he dies. Speaker 3 00:27:48 I mean, yeah. I mean he was 9,100 here in, in may and put up 31 points. So I, you know, Speaker 2 00:28:00 You need win. Well, you don't need win equity, but I don't know like anything less than like even 35 points at a $9,100 price tag. Like that's probably okay for cash, but there's, that's not taking anything down. Any GPP by any means. Like, no, Speaker 3 00:28:18 He's Speaker 2 00:28:19 A tough guy to read right now. Um, alright. I wanna go back up to the top because Ross chest is still priced at $10,000. Yeah, Speaker 3 00:28:27 No Speaker 2 00:28:27 He's, he's had a very rough go of it since basically basically the last almost two months. Speaker 3 00:28:35 Yes. Speaker 2 00:28:36 Um, he only has, he has two top 20 finishes, one coming last week. Um, he did have 49 fastest laps last week. Speaker 3 00:28:46 What? Speaker 2 00:28:46 That's according to draft case. Speaker 3 00:28:49 Oh my God. Speaker 2 00:28:50 He led one lap. Speaker 3 00:28:51 Hold on. How do you go backwards? Eight spots and put up almost 50 fastest laps. Speaker 2 00:28:58 That's I'm guessing it's because maybe pit cycle. He was still back in the field, but still clicking off that laps on fresh tires. Speaker 3 00:29:06 Okay. But he put up 49 fastest left and still only put up 37 points. Speaker 2 00:29:10 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:29:12 Like, I don't know. Uh, I don't really want any parts of Ross Chaston right Speaker 2 00:29:18 Now. I see, I have at least had 20% exposure to him each of the last six races or so. And it has those lineups have not done very well, but it's like the ownership is just gradually ticking down with each race. Speaker 3 00:29:34 Well, right. So Speaker 2 00:29:35 For good reason, I get it. He's he just hasn't been great. Speaker 3 00:29:39 Like you always want leverage on the field, which I do. I can understand. But at 10,000 I need more than just leverage man. Like I need, I need points in leverage and he's not giving me the thing that helps me win money right now. So like, you know, we're coming up on NFL. Right. And everybody's gonna play the mill maker the first, the first week. And it's like, oh, if I roster this $3,000, dude, I get leverage. Okay. But he probably isn't gonna score. So like what does leverage matter if they don't put up points and Chastain? Isn't isn't doing that right now. He's just, he's just not in Kansas. I know this is the best equipment he's been in, uh, in his entire career. And Kansas has been an okay track for him. But in the last three races here, he's finished 14th, 13th and seventh. And he started 24, 20 fourth and 11. So like it's not like massive PD upside and he is not leading laps. It started far back. So I, I don't know. I mean he put up 43 points at nine seven in may. Speaker 2 00:31:02 Again, that doesn't really do much though. Speaker 3 00:31:04 Still doesn't even hit five X. Yeah. And he started 11th, finished seventh, three fastest laps, four laps led Speaker 2 00:31:13 Did tracks maybe peak too soon. I mean even Suarez has, he's got one top five, which was at Watkins Glen, but in his last six races, he's got a 28th of 25th and 19th, the 24th and 18th. And then the fifth at Watkins Glen. Speaker 3 00:31:30 Yeah. I think, I think they've fallen behind the, uh, the curve here. I think JGR and Stuart ho to a degree have figured himself out that they, that, that track house hasn't Speaker 2 00:31:45 Uh, speaking of Stuart Haas, uh, Kevin hark is only 8,700. Speaker 3 00:31:51 We, you have to play at that price. Speaker 2 00:31:53 Yeah. I mean the last three races, he's been 8,500, 8,000, 8,400. Doesn't have a top 10 in that span, but you know, he, he had the two wins prior to that stretch. Um Speaker 3 00:32:04 Okay. But he was running ninth when his car caught. Yes. Speaker 2 00:32:07 Nope. You're right. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:32:08 So <laugh> like, are we gonna hold that against him? Or <laugh> like, I mean, yes, I'll grant you the Coke, the Coke zero sugar, 400, not great, but again, it's Daytona, Speaker 2 00:32:22 Wasn't everybody kind of like didn't, it just, it did feel like it, he was just doomed for a jinx at some point because there were a lot of touts on Twitter that were pumping up his top 10 odds and, and I get it like they Speaker 3 00:32:34 For it's been a decade since the dude missed the top 10 at darling, Speaker 2 00:32:38 The guy who just routinely finishes in the top 10 at Darlington, he was getting, I think minus one 15, which is really good for a guy. Speaker 3 00:32:46 Yeah. He's also, he was also like plus 200 for a top five and like 80% of his top tens here have been top sixes. So like it made sense. Like I stand behind the back cuz it took it. No Speaker 2 00:32:59 I do to forget it. But at that point I was just like, you know, what if this is the one time like something happens to him and sure enough, the car blew well. Speaker 3 00:33:06 Yep. Literally caught like crazy fire. Um, but look, he ran pretty well here in the, in the spring he started 23rd finished 15th, but that was really before HR had really found their speed. Um, so look, his track history here is, is very good. I mentioned earlier that Larson was 27 points ahead of the next closest guy in average DK points over the last four races. That guy is Kevin Harvick. He's the only other dude over 50 points are race. Um, in that span hark. Also, if we're sorting by average finish his average finish in the last four races here is five and a half. It's a spot and a half better than the next closest guy, which happens to be true X. So, um, and I said that Larson was at 1 28, 7 for driver rating and the next closest dude was 1 0 7, 4 that's Kevin hark. Nice. So you're getting a guy who's second in a lot of key metrics here for mid-tier pricing. That's basically what it comes down to at Kevin har. Speaker 2 00:34:18 All right. Uh, what about last week's winter? Eric Jones still under AK. Speaker 3 00:34:26 Yeah. I'm concerned about the hangover, like the actual physical hangover. Like I saw tweets from his crew that it came out at like nine, nine o'clock in the morning, in the following morning. And they were like, yeah, we're still drunk and still drinking. Speaker 2 00:34:41 <laugh> Speaker 3 00:34:42 Like, I mean, congrats good Speaker 2 00:34:44 For them. Speaker 3 00:34:45 Like good for you. But like now I'm concerned. <laugh> like, um, I don't know. What, what, what are you doing with Eric Jones this week? Speaker 2 00:35:01 Probably the same thing that I'm always doing with Eric Jones. Like if he starts in the top 10, I have my concerns cuz I feel because it's, he's more likely likely to go backward. Um, but if he like last week I loved him because he, he was in that range where it's like, well he's starting 15th, which is good because there's PD, but it's also, you know, there are other drivers that people will chase for for more PD. And so I thought Jones was, you know, a good GPP player and I had a fair amount of him in some of my builds. Speaker 2 00:35:35 Um, and then if he starts outside the top 20, I'm still intrigued because there's PD. It's like, it's almost like for him to be chalk, he has to start outside the top 25 or top 30. Um, but if he keeps starting in this 15 to 20 range, I'll probably still blame him his GPP just because he has the upside to go out there and win. Um, nice to see the 43 in victory lane, but you know, probably don't see it <laugh> again this year, but you know, he has a few finishes in the top 5, 6, 7. Um, so I mean, if he's offering a little bit of PD and he still has that upside as a guy, who's gonna be under 15% out. I'm always gonna play him. Speaker 3 00:36:12 Yeah. Uh, a couple of notes, one that was the first time in 55 years at the 43 car, he'd been in victory lane in uh, Darlington 55 the day. Um, and then it was the first time in, I saw this tweet. I don't remember how long, but it's been a while since the three and the 43 1 and back to back weeks cuz Austin Dylan one Daytona. Yeah. And then Eric Jones won Darlington. So, um, so that was pretty cool. I will say that Kansas is not a great track for Eric Jones. Uh, in the last four races he's finished no better than 20th and he's gotten worse each time. But you know, I, I think, I think he's still viable as a GPP depending on where he's starting. I'm with you. If he's starting in the teens, I think you can bring him in a GPP. If he hangs down to his spot, he gets value. Right. If he's starting anywhere behind 25th, he's gonna be chalky. Cuz people are just gonna expect him to finish with the top 20 finish, which probably won't happen. But we'll see. Speaker 2 00:37:20 Uh, did you wanna touch on Austin, Dylan? I know you were pitching a, a very fun little prop on him before we started recording this podcast. Speaker 3 00:37:28 Yeah. So, um, the starting grid video will be out on Thursday this week. So if you're listening to this, the odds are that it's the, like the podcast will come out Thursday morning. The starting grade will be out some point Thursday. There was some technical stuff with recording it on Wednesday. Um, but this week I'm kind of taking a little bit different tact and I'm gonna try to point out how you can use early, um, week odds to go find some values or some overvalue, um, in DFS and Austin. Dylan is one of those, uh, guys. So a couple of notes on, on Austin Dylan here is that, you know, he's 7,700 on DK right now on DK sports book. He's got a top 10 line of plus 1 25. So that's, that's pretty nice considering the fact that he's finished in the top 15, four straight races here, one of only four drivers to do that. Speaker 3 00:38:26 Um, and a couple of those were 11th and 10th, um, place finishes, but here's where the value comes in. Right? So he's 17th in salary. If you count from the most expensive guy in Denny Hamlin down to him, he's 17th in salary. So basically mid pack, right? His top 10 odds put him 18th in top 10 odds. However, his average finish over the last four races here is 10th best and he's 17th best in driver. So he's based on driver rating. He's right where he should be based on average finish there's value here in his salary and that on. So that's a little taste of what the video's gonna be talking about and how you can kind of use odds to go find, um, some, some values or how to avoid some guys. Cuz like we're gonna talk a little bit about Daniel SWES in this video too, cuz I think he's overvalued based on the top 10 odds. Speaker 2 00:39:26 All right. Uh, as we dip into this low seven K range also, that was very well said. Uh, we have some interesting values, uh, chase Brisco is getting priced down rightfully so because he boy, his results lately have been terrible. Yes. Uh, hasn't had a top 10 since the Coke's 600. Um, and before that it was, Speaker 3 00:39:49 It was a while like, Speaker 2 00:39:51 Uh, well he won Phoenix, but then he had uh, another top 10. It was early April. I can't remember the race. Maybe Richmond. Yep. Possibly. Uh, but you know, like 7,300, uh, we were talking about howr has started to figure everything out. It's just, we haven't really seen it with Brisco he's oh my God. He's had, he's posted 15 or fewer points on draft Kings in four great four, four straight races. And he's posted under 10 points on draft Kings in three straight races. Speaker 3 00:40:21 Yeah. It's not great. Speaker 2 00:40:22 That's the nightmare. Uh, yeah but he's 7,300. I like the discount. Ty Gibbs is gonna be, it depends on where he starts, but he's proving to be a really good GPP play. He's got three top 15 finishes in his last five races coming into Kansas. Um, I wanna say he has a win here in Xfinity, but don't quote me on that. Uh, Brad, cuz last week's coming off a phenomenal run last week at Darlington, um, teammate, Chris Busher. I was very, very heavy on and I hated the result. Uh, but who are some of your, uh, favorite plays in this range? Speaker 3 00:41:00 Well, you just talked about one in Brad Klowski Speaker 2 00:41:03 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:41:04 Um, look, I it's no secret. I started off of him to start this year and I've been slowly being talked more into him each week. Um, and now other results are just showing like he's been consistently a top 15 car, so it's pretty hard to avoid playing a guy. Who's got a shot for a top 15 each week when they're that, when they're this far down the salary list, um, I will say keep your eyes peeled cuz he's also in that video, that's coming up on Thursday. Um, so I'm not gonna give everything away. You have to go watch the video for that, but there are some pretty interesting stats for him and why this might be a little bit of a misprice on Decay's side. Um, Chris Busher I thought it was a perfectly fine read last week to play him the results just, just didn't bear out, but it, the, you know, the signs were there for it to be a good day for him. Um, below this, I don't know, man. Uh, look, I don't know. We can go with our old tried and true dudes like Lindon Burton, but like that's look, everybody knows that those are the cheap plays so Speaker 2 00:42:22 Well what about cold Custer? Speaker 3 00:42:25 I mean he Speaker 2 00:42:26 14th, 16th, 11th and his last three race and that grand one of those. Speaker 3 00:42:29 Yeah. Well good. Speaker 2 00:42:30 One was Daytona. One was a road course and then there was last at Darlington that saw a lot of really good drivers just bust. Speaker 3 00:42:39 Right. But Custer though, I will, he was, he, Speaker 2 00:42:44 He was running top 10 frequently for most of the race. Speaker 3 00:42:47 Right. His was more based on speed rather than, oh these 17 dudes had issues. I'm gonna go take their spots, right? Yeah. Like fair. His is more based on speed. Um, I will say that Kusters run respectively at Kansas. Um, not great. Not terrible. Obviously it's Speaker 2 00:43:07 Better. That's Kusters run at most tracks. Speaker 3 00:43:09 Yeah. I mean <laugh>, it's gonna be better if he starts further back, uh, for sure. But you know, he look, he did. Okay. Here in the spring, you know, finished like 22nd I think. Um, so, you know, look in GPS. He's perfectly fine. Mm-hmm <affirmative> it's about all I can say there for, uh, but again, he's another guy who ran well at Pocono and these are kind of the same tires. So who knows Speaker 2 00:43:41 Any interest on Ricky St. House? He did finish eighth here in the spring. Speaker 3 00:43:46 He did. Um, he then disappointed me so bad last week. Like I thought we were in for a great St house night and then somehow like three laps in, he is already six laps down. Like I like, I, I don't know. Um, he did run well here in the spring. You are correct about that. Uh, he had a pretty good run at Charlotte as well, which you know, make a decent comparison, um, to those tracks. So he is in play. You never know what you're gonna get with with Ricky. Stenhouse Jr. He's like the box of chocolates in fors cup. Speaker 2 00:44:26 All right. Is there anything else, any anybody else you wanted to, to touch on or do you just wanna wrap it up and save it all for the playbook? Speaker 3 00:44:34 Yeah, not, not a whole lot. You know, anybody else that comes to mind probably has the Speaker 2 00:44:39 Good plays will present themselves to us essentially. Speaker 3 00:44:42 Yeah, exactly. I mean, I can tell you, you know, everybody's a good or a bad play based on track history, but not everybody's gonna show up terribly at every track. You expect them to show up terribly. At like the time I told everybody to fade Kurt Bush at Vegas and Kurt Bush then wound up winning the race, leading like a hundred something laps. Um, you know, we'll see what the cars look like on track on Saturday and uh, we'll get ready to play 'em on Sunday. Speaker 2 00:45:09 All right. Well Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this week and best of luck to the FA nation, Speaker 3 00:45:14 Best of luck, FA nation.

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