Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine.
Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's going on. FA nation. Welcome back. Another edition of the fantasy alarm, NASCAR DFS podcast. I'm Dan Malan joined by the Fs a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt sells Matt. We're down to two races left in the regular season. We have 15 winners. We are back on a road course. I'm a big road course enthusiast for DFS, but I'm gonna admit even I'm a little worn out from these tracks this year. Uh, how are you feeling getting into Walkins Glen?
Speaker 3 00:00:48 I guess I'm with you not, not feeling terribly enthused about another road course. I actually kind of missed the number of mile and a half that are on the schedule now. I mean, I like Walkins Glen, don't get me wrong. I like wains Glen as a racetrack, but like sixth or what? This is the sixth word course of the year. I thought fifth, the fifth.
Speaker 2 00:01:15 Yeah. And I think the role was the sixth.
Speaker 3 00:01:20 Yeah, that sounds about right. Oh, cause we didn't have DRC this year, so down to six. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:01:27 Uh, but anyway, we, uh, Kevin hark gets his second straight win after not winning for almost two years, uh, comfortably locking himself into the playoffs. Um,
Speaker 3 00:01:38 Really just there's by the way, there's now only one driver not locked into the playoffs. It was one.
Speaker 2 00:01:45 Wait, who has one?
Speaker 3 00:01:47 Yes. Kurt Bush is not yet locked into the playoffs.
Speaker 2 00:01:51 Well, I thought he had the waiver.
Speaker 3 00:01:54 He, if there are not two more winners and he's below them in points, he makes the playoffs. However, every driver that has one, one race this year is now locked into the playoffs plan to Bob PS.
Speaker 2 00:02:12 Well, do you think that we get another new winner this weekend? I don't. I think if anything, we'll find that chaos.
Speaker 3 00:02:18 Yeah, I think it's
Speaker 2 00:02:19 And I think Kurt's fine.
Speaker 3 00:02:22 I think, I think Kurt makes the playoffs. Um, I think we get one new winner cuz I think Daytona is gonna give us a new winner. Right. Um, but I think, I think the road course, we can basically pair it down to about five guys that we think are gonna wind up winning. And I don't think any of 'em are, can be reckoned <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:02:43 They're probably gonna come from a Chevy, but more on that shortly. Um, any big news, uh, other than Kurt Bush missing, uh, the last two races, which will be this weekend at Watkins Glen next week at Daytona,
Speaker 3 00:02:55 Uh, Brian Blaney walked into team Penske for a long time. According to the press release,
Speaker 2 00:03:02 I was kinda surprised that they didn't mention the number of years. They just said it's it's like an ex it's a big extension form, which is fine.
Speaker 3 00:03:08 You just said, you're just gonna see him here for a while. Yeah. Like that's kinda weird cuz like Hendrick announced how many years each of their guys got and, and whatnot. Um, Kyle Bush has not signed yet. I'm sure co offers him ownership. Then he signs with them. Um, but I, I don't know Cole, Custer's supposed to be back in the 41 car, which is a little surprising. So weird. Maybe they just assume that there's nothing
Speaker 2 00:03:38 Is Kentucky coming back on the schedule.
Speaker 3 00:03:40 No <laugh> <laugh> um, maybe they assume that nobody that would be able to be picked up is an improvement over a Custer.
Speaker 2 00:03:54 That's a thought <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:03:57 I mean, you know, maybe it's like the Rocky thought process on not trading Troy to Lewinsky that they weren't gonna get anything back that they couldn't just go draft later or try to resign him. Mm-hmm <affirmative> so I don't know. Maybe they're giving him some slack cuz the last couple years have been kind wonky with no qualifying and no practice and then a brand new car. And I don't know, but I was a little surprised to see and apparently they're still trying to sort out the 10 cars. So maybe Eric aro is not leaving.
Speaker 2 00:04:33 See, I've heard rumblings that he might be interested in doing a part-time schedule.
Speaker 3 00:04:39 Yeah. Well there's release on Kuster said that they're still sorting out the 10. So that to me lends credence to he's at least doing a part-time schedule.
Speaker 2 00:04:50 I also heard like there were some, some rumors flow around that, uh, Stuart hos wanted to announce that they would have an Xfinity team next year, but they already have an Xfinity team. And so I thought maybe they were going to a two car team in Xfinity.
Speaker 3 00:05:05 Yeah. It's it's possible.
Speaker 2 00:05:09 I don't know. Cause I understand if, if Elmar were to go to a part-time schedule, you know, you could maybe run Elmo and Riley Hert part-time in the 10, but Hert is not ready to be a cup series driver.
Speaker 3 00:05:23 Yeah. No, not, not, uh, really anywhere close. There was some interesting moves in Xfinity this week, right? Like, um,
Speaker 2 00:05:34 Chris Wrights running the 68 for Brandon Brown.
Speaker 3 00:05:37 Yeah. And I dunno, we'll see him. Oh
Speaker 2 00:05:42 No. Grantson did we talk about that or was that last week?
Speaker 3 00:05:45 I think we talked about that last week. That
Speaker 2 00:05:47 Was last week. Yeah. I think you're right. Gregson. We still don't know who's going to the nine first 90
Speaker 3 00:05:50 Though. No, we thought that it might be what drew dollar and then that hasn't really been announced. Um, so we'll see, we'll see where things, you know, shake you out here. But there, there is still some silly season stuff left and whether Tyler Reddick actually makes it into 2023 with RCR, that's still kind of up in the air from what I'm hearing. Um, why you want to kick that guy? The curb early? I have no idea.
Speaker 2 00:06:21 All right. Let's just dive into walk-ins Glen. Not a big news week. Uh, no trucks this week, the trucks are actually off for like, uh,
Speaker 3 00:06:28 Three weeks, three
Speaker 2 00:06:29 Weeks or something. They don't come back until Kansas. They only have surprisingly over the next three, two and a half to three months. They only have five races left.
Speaker 3 00:06:36 Oh, by the way, big news for Kansas, those of you who may or may not be going to the Kansas race will actually be able to live bet in the sports book that's attached to turn two at the track you go, Kansas goes live sports betting September 1st Hollywood casino, which is attached to Kansas Speedway has a license. So you should be able to enjoy some NASCAR betting while watching them drive right past you
Speaker 2 00:07:02 Go Jayhawks. Um, alright. Walkins Glen. Really? What are you a wild cats fan.
Speaker 3 00:07:11 I went to K state.
Speaker 2 00:07:13 My dad is anyway, uh, fifth road course on the schedule. Walkins Glen. Um, usually fundraise. Like we actually see them pick up like faster speeds here. Um, there aren't as many like tight technical terms as I think like the, the terms, if anything there's are a couple, S's just very broad. This
Speaker 3 00:07:37 Is more, this is more like road America in my opinion than Sonoma or Coda. Cuz Rhode America has long straights. You get some speed. There are some tighter corners at Rhode America, but it's not like all technical. Yeah. That's kind of like Walkins Glen. There are like the YESS can be technical. The bus stop depending on how you want to take it. You can either overshoot. It <laugh> like the like kids last and Lagano and Kyle Bush had been known to do or you can make it a technical corner. Um, but for the most part, it is the fastest, um, actual road course on the schedule. Um, 90 laps for the race on Sunday. Yes.
Speaker 2 00:08:20 I thought they would've more cause like Xfinity has 82, which I thought cup would have like 100 to one 10. Hey, whatever.
Speaker 3 00:08:28 Go on. Yeah, no it's 90. It's a 90 lab races for the go bowling at the Glen. Um, so stage breaks are gonna be interesting here. I think the final stage is like 45 laps if I'm not mistaken. Um, but yeah. So in that regard, you can't like, I'm not sure we can take a whole lot from what we saw at Sonoma and a whole lot from what we saw at Coda. I think if we're gonna take anything, anything we gotta see more like I dunno, indie road was such a disaster <laugh> again, <laugh> um, so more like more like road America. Um, in my opinion, in terms of how much speed you can carry through the, the lap.
Speaker 2 00:09:13 All right. Uh, let's just not waste any time. We, uh, we did talk about how this is gonna be a pretty fun field to break down. Uh, so Chevys make up the four most expensive drivers in the field. They are all $10,000 or more chase. Elliot is ten seven. Kyle Larson is 10, five. I don't know why Tyler Reddick is 10, three coming out. And he's one of the last two road curses on the season. And Ross chesting is an even 10 flat. He won at Coda earlier in the year. Uh, do you feel pretty good about Chevy once again, winning another road course their fifth this year.
Speaker 3 00:09:46 I mean they seem to be the ones with all the speed on the road courses. Um, Kyle Larson had so much speed. He tried to blame failing brakes for running over Ty Dylan at indie road. When it actually wasn't failing breaks, it's just him failing to break. Um, I'm with you. I don't get the Kyle Larson at ten five. He just hasn't been Kyle Larson this year. Um, I mean, yeah, he clearly had speed at indie road before he went <laugh> right into the wall. Um, but I, I, I can't, unless he has an incredibly dominating practice and is on the pole. I can't make myself reasonably pay ten five for Kyle right now,
Speaker 2 00:10:36 Uh, for the record just for what it's worth, uh, Chevrolet is minus one 40 as of Thursday night to win the race. Uh, and that's according to DK sports book Ford is plus 200 and Toyota and they're seven drivers and they're awful setups on road courses this year. Uh, they're going off at five to one,
Speaker 3 00:10:53 Hey man, go ahead and top five
Speaker 2 00:10:56 What's that?
Speaker 3 00:10:57 I said, Hey man, Papa had a top five on a rope course.
Speaker 2 00:11:00 That that is true. But if we're going to be honest with ourselves and I was
Speaker 3 00:11:04 Everybody else wrecked out of the race,
Speaker 2 00:11:06 I was a, I was a big fan of that cause I had 'em at a hundred to one to finish at the top Toyota. And I was very happy that day, but the Toyotas and I guess this is a good segue, but they've just been absolute trash. Yes. Do we think that they figure it out this week or are we just, is Martin TRUS Jr. Who is a good road course driver, but are we expecting him to probably maybe put all his eggs into Daytona instead?
Speaker 3 00:11:33 I don't know, man, cuz Daytona's never really been
Speaker 2 00:11:36 His track,
Speaker 3 00:11:37 His track, like, I mean, I understand putting all your bags, all your eggs into a chaotic race, but I'd rather do it at a skill set that you're better at, which is clearly road course racing as opposed to plate racing. Um, yeah. I don't know what to do with the Toyotas this week. I mean, you've got obviously track still needs to win to have a shot at the playoffs at this point. Um, Kyle Bush is, is fine. He's locked in. He just needs a contract. Denny Hamlin. I literally cannot peg from week to week. Like I feel like I had a decent read on him last week at Richmond that he was gonna lead some lapse and finish solidly, but not like be overwhelming. But at road courses this year JGR has just been terrible. Um, and Christopher Bell, I was gonna say like, I don't mind Christopher Bell, but then I flashed back to Sonoma. He didn't move anywhere. <laugh> like he started 31st and finished 27th somehow put up nine past his laps and couldn't figure out how to pass anybody while Austin Crick made it to the top 10 starting 25th. So I don't know. I can't say it's a pure fade on all Toyotas, but it is pretty close to that this week.
Speaker 2 00:13:00 I will say that, um, I'm not thrilled about playing any, any of the Toyotas, but you know, I'm DK sports book, you know, Martin sch X Jr is 20 to one. Kyle Bush's 25 to one. So is Denny Hamlin. Um, Christopher Bell, I might have gone right past him. Oh, he's 18 to one. Um, but I mean, if you're looking at DK sports book and pricing relative to the odds, right? Uh, chase Elliot and Tyler Redick are the favorites on the sports book. Elliot is five to one. Redick is six to one. Uh, Austin Cindrich is 10 to one and he's the fifth most expensive driver. The one that kind of stands out to me is AJ Alman der, who is the sixth, most expensive driver on the board. But at the same time, he's getting 15 to one odds. He was 25 to one when they opened up very interested because the line is moving in his favor. Obviously he's a noted road course ringer. He won, uh, Indianapolis last year. He almost won coded this year. Aside from those two races,
Speaker 3 00:14:02 I'm pretty sure he won at Watkins Glen early in his career.
Speaker 2 00:14:05 He, I think you're right. Uh, and then in his three Xfinity races, I think since 2018, he's been the runner up one of the years he was disqualified. So this says a course that he's very familiar with. Um, are we okay paying the $9,600 price tag because his results overall this year, uh, he doesn't have a single top five now granted he was close to winning Coda before he was spun by Chastain. Um, is this a price where we can pay up for almond binger with confidence? I mean, I'd rather bet him than play in DFS.
Speaker 3 00:14:39 I'm probably there with you. Like if I'm in that range, why wouldn't I just go down 200 bucks and play Daniels fors. Who's been just as fast as his teammate on road courses and one on one of them. Um, you know, I don't know. It's, it sounds weird to say Alman der, isn't really all that playable, but at 9,600 bucks, that's I mean, to give you an idea, he was 8,800 Sonoma when he started 16th and finished 19th and everybody thought him starting 16th at 8,800 was a steel turned out not to be. Um, so yeah, I mean the, the, the coder result obviously finishing 33rd, not great considering the fact he was running third, like in the last corner and they got spot and just could not get back on the track. Um, but I'm, I'm there with you. I mean, it took kind of chaos for him to finish seventh at, uh, indie road. So I'd rather dip down a couple hundred bucks and go play Daniel Forez in a car. I trust a little bit more right now.
Speaker 2 00:15:48 Um, was there anything else you wanted to add regarding Larson Redick Chasta? I know after you finished on Elliot, we kind of just jumped right to the dumpster fire that has been the Toyotas
Speaker 3 00:15:58 <laugh> um, I mean it's hard to ignore Tyler Redick. He's one of the last two road races and done it in pretty dominating fashion. Um, as well. I mean he ran down, she said Elliot wrote America and then just drove away from him. Um,
Speaker 2 00:16:16 I was not expecting him to, you know, start on the poll and win. And he honestly thought that that was a race where that team and him specifically, I thought that they were just gonna go, uh, race for points just to kind of secure their spot on the playoffs. And they went out and won. So they really secured their spot. Um, but yeah, uh, what he's done this year on road courses, it very impressive. And he still has the track like Miami on the schedule and the playoffs where he could go out and, and run very well at that track and high tire. Well where, and he can run along the wall, very interested to see how deep he can go in the playoffs this year. And he's on a hell of a run.
Speaker 3 00:16:55 Yeah. Um, by
Speaker 2 00:16:57 The way, the two races have not been great for him,
Speaker 3 00:16:59 By the way, just to clarify that chase Elliot is almost locked up the regular season title. He's 116 points ahead of Bryan Lane. Um, who's in second. So that's a, that would be a huge playoff boost for chase Elliott, cuz you do get a chunk of points for winning the regular season title that carries into the playoffs. Um, but I don't know. Do we really think that Tyler Reddick can show up a third time and have a sure phenomenal and, and, and win three straight road races like out of nowhere? I mean he is run well here before he finished 10th year, last year. Right. That's reasonably impressive for a first time.
Speaker 2 00:17:47 Are you pitching of him as a, a fade option simply because he could be so popular coming off back to back road course wins.
Speaker 3 00:17:54 I mean, he is gonna be popular. I think you kind of gotta pay him, play him in cash. Um, just because he's gonna be popular. Right. So if he screws you he's screwing everybody and you still have a shot at cashing. And if he doesn't, you're not gonna make up ground. If you don't have him in your lineup in cash GPS. I don't know. It's I think he and Chasteen are gonna be the two most played in this group. I don't think it's gonna be chase and I definitely don't think it's gonna be
Speaker 2 00:18:31 Larson. It definitely won't be Larson. Are we, do you think that uh, people could be, I guess souring on chestain a little bit because it's four straight races that he's been, uh, $10,000 or more on draft Kings and he's finished outside the top 15 and all of them now, granted he did lead 80 laps last week, but he finished 18th after starting second. So that impacted the PD and he ended up finishing, which is 37 points on draft Kings.
Speaker 3 00:18:59 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:19:00 We haven't really seen him go crazy since Charlotte.
Speaker 3 00:19:03 Yeah, I think so. So you know, F1 is in summer break right now. It comes back next weekend. Dana and I were talking about that before we recorded. I think Ross chests a little bit like Ferrari right now where he's got the speed to compete and should be doing better, but some sort of strategy or screw up either on his part or his team's part, uh, keeps him from getting the results he should be getting
Speaker 2 00:19:30 Mm-hmm
Speaker 3 00:19:30 <affirmative> um, so I think people are starting to sour on him for sure. Um, and we're getting to the time of year where he's gonna have to start cashing checks that we know he's not gonna be able to <laugh> to handle. Um, so yeah, I would imagine that red would be pretty popular. I would probably say that Elliott's probably number two in that grouping then Chasta and then Larson may be one of the, the least blade guys at that PR like, not just at that price point. I'm just saying like, you have to compare him with the dudes that are less than six K to find his percentage. I would, I would imagine.
Speaker 2 00:20:11 Uh, is there anybody under Daniel Squires that we haven't really talked about that, you know, you got basically I'm asking if there's anybody in this eight K to like 9,200 range, like,
Speaker 3 00:20:21 I mean, Blay needs a win.
Speaker 2 00:20:23 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:20:23 Right. The only way he's getting in is if he either win Daytona, which he's won a plate race before,
Speaker 2 00:20:29 Or if there's just repeat winners,
Speaker 3 00:20:32 Uh,
Speaker 2 00:20:34 Well he wins if like one of the 15 drivers that's already win won.
Speaker 3 00:20:38 Yes. He's the end. If there's, if there's repeat winners. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:20:41 No new winners and Blaney's win Blaney's in
Speaker 3 00:20:45 Assuming that he doesn't screw up and, and, and true X passes them in points, but cuz true X see that's the interesting part. True. X is only 26 points behind Blaney so let's put it this way. If there's no new winners, Kurt Bush counts as being in right. He'll qualify like 15th basically. So the cutoff then becomes let's see here. We've got yeah. Tru X is like the first one out right now. He's 26 points out now roll is the next one added two 14. So that guy definitely needs a win.
Speaker 2 00:21:31 He could win Daytona.
Speaker 3 00:21:33 So if true X can simply outpoint Blaney in two weekends, then true X can get in without a win. It is possible assuming that no new winners happen, but yeah, that's kind of these two dudes are hanging in the, in the balance. Can Ryan bla you do well at a road course. Maybe. I don't know. We haven't seen him be all that convincing at Watkins Glen previously, uh, is best finishing the last five races here is top five. Other than that, it's eight. Then there's three that are outside the top 10. So maybe cuz desperation is kicking in. But again, I I'd probably rather play Brisco or bell.
Speaker 2 00:22:21 I was gonna ask you about Brisco because he's 15 to one on draft king sports book right now it's like tied for the eighth best odds with AJ almond der currently, uh, to win he's plus 180 for a top five and for a top 10, he is minus 200. I don't really get that because in his he's basically since his very impressive win at Phoenix over five months ago, he has 1, 2, 2 top tens,
Speaker 3 00:22:52 Right.
Speaker 2 00:22:53 Uh, one came at Charlotte, the other came, I think that was Dover. Uh, but I just haven't really seen great success on road courses for him even when he is been on the pole, like a gateway. And we all thought like, oh the, the 14 is fast. Brisco can get a, a boatload of dominator points and he only led 27 laps and he finished outside the top 20. So I don't really get the love for Brisco this week.
Speaker 3 00:23:25 Yeah. I mean, I will say that in his last 10 cup series road course races, he's got three top tens and none of them have, he did that in his first floor and then he's not finished better than 13th than the next six. Um, so there is that, but I'm just saying like if we're going to play a guy that we kind of deem as a little riskier on road courses, I mean I'll take the savings and play Brisco cuz he did decently well at this discipline in Xfinity as well. And this is a less technical road course, which should help 'em a little bit, although in it's home track in Indiana, didn't do very well. Um, so look, you're gonna basically need people to differentiate yourself, right? Cause road course races. We basically know there's like six dudes who are real good at road racing. And then after that, you've just gotta hope your guy can make a right turn without wrecking. So
Speaker 2 00:24:31 Well let's talk about his teammate. Um, this fantastic young rookie driver, Kevin hark, he's coming off, uh, back to back wins. He hasn't been all that bad on road course. Uh, at Coda, he started 18th, finished 11th. Uh, then at Sonoma, that was a, he started P 23 finished fourth and he was only 8,100 for that. Uh, then you go to the 4th of July weekend at Rhode America. He started 28th, finished 10th and he was only 8,100 for that. He's coming off back to back winds. So we added some momentum. I don't consider him a great road ringer by any means. And, and I, for all like the, the good results that he's had this year, he did finish 33rd at indie, but I don't really care because that race has been very hard to predict and just came with a ton variance the last two years. So he has momentum. It's coming off back to back winds. Uh, that car has been very solid this year when the setup is right. And I don't understand why he's priced down to 8,400. I don't expect him to win, but I thought he would at least be nine K.
Speaker 3 00:25:39 Yeah. That's pretty weird pricing. Um, for a back to back race winner and a guy who did it in relatively dominating fashion. Um, and not to mention that if we're going off of track history, he's got three straight top tens at Watkins, Glen 10th, seventh, and eighth. And in two of those, he started 15th. Yeah. So he started 15th, 15th and fish and, and sorry, 15th, 15th and fifth and finished 10th, seventh and eighth.
Speaker 2 00:26:11 He's a cash came for you, man.
Speaker 3 00:26:12 Yeah. Guy is Mr. Top 10. That's what he is been doing all year. He hasn't stopped. Um, he, you know, he basically said that they're not, they're not laying off heading into the playoffs. They just want to keep this, you know, keep doing everything right that they've been doing. Um, so yeah, I look, he's probably gonna be, do you think he's got a shot at being the most popular play?
Speaker 2 00:26:42 Yes.
Speaker 3 00:26:43 At 8,400 bucks with three straight top tens at Watkins Glen and coming off of back to back wins. I think there's a reasonable shot that Kevin hark might be the most popular play.
Speaker 2 00:26:53 Especially if you consider that he just, he hasn't qualified well at road courses. He qualified 18th at Indy, uh, 23rd. Uh, what was that? Sonoma? Uh, Rhode America. He was 28, 20 eighth and then Coda. I think he was 18th as well. So I mean he's qualifying outside the top 15 he's right around the average price for a driver on draft Kings three straight top tens of walk-ins Glen. So if we're assuming that he's just going to finish or qualify outside the top 15 and still have a really good shot at finishing in the top 10 then yeah. He's gonna be among the most popular play could be the
Speaker 3 00:27:32 He's finished. He finished 11th, fourth and 10th in the first three road races of the year.
Speaker 2 00:27:40 He's minus one 10th
Speaker 3 00:27:42 Or worse in all of those. I, I don't get the, I don't get the praising
Speaker 2 00:27:53 Other way. Uh, good play all around. Probably gonna be a very safe play. Just put him right now. Um,
Speaker 3 00:28:01 Alex Bowman.
Speaker 2 00:28:02 What's that?
Speaker 3 00:28:02 Yeah, I was gonna say, do we wanna talk about Alex Bowman and his uh, in his pick crew?
Speaker 2 00:28:08 Well, okay. So what news broke about that today? Cause I heard like he was on Cory LA Joy's podcast or Corey LA joy mentioned something about his pick crew on stacking pennies.
Speaker 3 00:28:16 So basically Corey Lejo had been using Alex Bowman's pick crew and now Alex Bowman gets them back this week.
Speaker 2 00:28:24 Huh? Interesting. Could that explain his
Speaker 3 00:28:29 Like, except for like the Jack man? I think there's like one guy that's staying with Lejo and I think it's the Jack man and everybody else is going to Bowman, which might explain why he's been an abject disaster for like seven straight weeks. I, I don't know why they switched in the first place. It was a very under the, uh, radar switch cuz I don't think anybody realized that they had switched pit crews. Um, but yeah, Corey Lejo mentioned that he has his pit crew is going back to cuz his pit crew was supplied by Hendrick. And so I think they're going back to Bowman and maybe one of the guys is going to Larson I think. But yeah, basically that Bowman gets his, his guys back. So maybe that's it, but I find it hard to believe that that would make that big of a difference.
Speaker 2 00:29:22 Well, I would say on a track position is important almost anywhere you go, uh, at a road course, it's incredibly important. Uh, just because as the green flag runs go, like the field just gets stretched out. It does become a little more difficult to pass. So if you can have a fast pit crew to help you get, uh, on and off pit road as fast as possible, especially under any cautions, that's only beneficial to you. Uh, but at the same time, Alex Bowman is only $8,000. I know the results have been a little rough this year. He did finish 12th at Rhode America, uh, 16th at Sonoma. Okay. Um, he finished second at co he was in contention with, uh, Chastain and Alman nigger at the end. Uh, came up a little bit short
Speaker 3 00:30:13 And I mean, Wakin Glen, hasn't always been Bowman's cup of tea in the three races. He's um, three of the last five races he's run here have been 14, 14th and 20. So not,
Speaker 2 00:30:30 Not great,
Speaker 3 00:30:31 Not great.
Speaker 2 00:30:33 Uh, Chris Busher is probably gonna be a very popular play. 7,800
Speaker 3 00:30:37 Christopher Busher
Speaker 2 00:30:38 Christopher Busher. Yes. Uh, sorry, Dale. Uh, he's been very solid on the road courses this year. He was 10 to indie high variance, but I mean, if you extrapolated across the other road, courses sixth at Rhode America, he was runner up at Sonoma. I don't think he had the greatest day at Coda. He finished 21st overall though. Uh, he's had one of the fastest cars on road courses this year. He's only 7,800.
Speaker 3 00:31:04 He almost, he almost ran har down for the win last week at
Speaker 2 00:31:07 Richmond. Yeah. 26 fastest laps last week. Granted there were a ton of laps, so plenty of drivers getting at least 20, but he finished third last week. Um,
Speaker 3 00:31:18 Yeah, I'm just
Speaker 2 00:31:20 Play. He's probably gonna be up there in ownership with what's that
Speaker 3 00:31:24 I said I'm perfectly fine with Chris. Busher locking him into cash games and making the mid tier core be har and Busher. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:31:32 Uh, I am a little surprised at William Byron's price tag though
Speaker 3 00:31:37 Too low, too high,
Speaker 2 00:31:38 Too low. I understand. He's not like we don't think of him as a good road course driver. Um, finished 12th Dakota, uh, ninth at Sonoma, not bad, uh, 16th at Rhode America. And then <laugh> 31st at Indianapolis, but again at 7,700, you don't really need him to do a ton at this
Speaker 3 00:32:05 Point. He's basically a thousand dollars less than he was last weekend at Richmond.
Speaker 2 00:32:09 He's probably a thousand he's I would say he should be priced.
Speaker 3 00:32:13 He is exactly a thousand dollars less than he was for indie and 1300 less than he was for Rhode America.
Speaker 2 00:32:22 I mean he's only a hundred dollars more than ricking in.
Speaker 3 00:32:26 See, but that's a missed price on, on ricking in. I'm sorry. I know everybody's very excited about the ice man coming to NASCAR and it's cool. It is don't get me wrong project. 91 is great. I as an F1 fan and very excited to see, can we reckon and take on a road course in a cup car, but can we seriously cool. The damn jets on Reon like Dan, you got him at 50 to one
Speaker 2 00:32:51 And I don't like that,
Speaker 3 00:32:53 Right? Yeah. He started at one 50 to one.
Speaker 2 00:32:56 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:32:57 And almost immediately fell the 50. Like I was on a, a, on a Twitter thread with, I think Dr. RO like, uh, Nick Griffin. And
Speaker 2 00:33:09 I think Ryan Stevens was on
Speaker 3 00:33:10 That too. Ryan Stevens was in there too. And they were like over the course of a few hours, it went from like one 50 down to 50 to one <laugh> like, why is everybody betting money on ranking into win? And then he's sitting in plus one 70 for a top 10 on DK. What, what,
Speaker 2 00:33:30 Well, I think if you're just, you know, like this isn't an oval, it's a road course. And so he's, it's, it's probably the most comfortable format for him to be racing on.
Speaker 3 00:33:38 Okay. But they drive completely different. Like in the NASCAR cup car is twice as heavy as an F1 car
Speaker 2 00:33:44 Fair. And I don't think he's gonna win. And I, I don't really regret the bet too much cuz it was, it, it wasn't a lot of units in terms of what I play for units. It was maybe 0.4 units. But anyway, um, it's still a track house car and they've won two road courses this year.
Speaker 3 00:34:04 I mean,
Speaker 2 00:34:05 And should I wish I got him at longer on it's like 50 to one. I don't love the, I wish I could have gone him at a little longer, but uh, 7,600. I'm kinda with you that he shouldn't be priced up this high. I think he should probably be thousand dollars cheaper, but didn't Juan Pablo Montoya win his first career cup on or cup race.
Speaker 3 00:34:28 Yeah, but that's, I mean, that's going back aways. Marcus arose had success early in his career in a cup cuz it was a road course, but like, I mean I don't. So an F1 car weighs, we're gonna do some math here weighs 798 kilos and there's 2.2 pounds per kilo. So that's 1,755 pounds an NASCAR cup car weighs 3,300 pounds. So it weighs almost exactly twice what a, an F1 car weighs. It's got less horsepower by about half. Um, it just handles that. I know he did laps. He got laps in on Virginia international Raceway, which is a very cool track and Southern Virginia that like IA runs and whatnot. Um, but he's never race Wakin Glen cuz F1 doesn't race it. Um, I look I'm rooting for him. Don't get me wrong. It would be really cool to see a good result from him. But am I banking on him for DFS at 7,600 bucks? No, I'd much rather have Byron at 77 or Klowski at 73 or McDowell at 71. Don't like her Bush. She's not racing this weekend, but Ty gives it 6,900 bucks. Nice. Are you serious? Like why would you pay $700 more for a guy in his first cup series race ever compared to Ty Gibbs? Who's now been in this car for what five weeks.
Speaker 2 00:36:05 This will be his fifth race. He finished. He started 26th at Indian finished 17th and he won the Xfinity road course RA uh, the walk-ins Glen Xfinity race a year ago. And I actually think if he can pull off an impressive run and win this week's Xfinity race, I think he has a legitimate shot at contending for top 10. Now you still have to deal with the fact that to the Toyotas have had a terrible setup, but gives his running the Saturday race. And you have to keep in mind that race still has almond dinger. It's got the usual suspects in Xfinity. It's also gonna have Kyle Larson, William Byron, I think col Custer and Ross Chastain in it. So it's, it's a loaded field and he has all the ability to compete with those guys. And if he can compete, put up with solid run and maybe even win that race, then I'm even more on board with him for Saturdays, for Sundays race. Although I am still worried about Toyota's nailing the setup.
Speaker 3 00:37:01 Yeah. I would contend that 2311 is have better setups than JGR for road courses.
Speaker 2 00:37:06 You're you're probably right.
Speaker 3 00:37:08 I mean it's not a high bar to clear
Speaker 2 00:37:10 <laugh> <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:37:12 Let's clear that up right now, but I would say that Bubba's runs and Kurts runs it. Road courses have had have shown lower speed. Maybe not always the results they should have gotten, but more pure speed out of those two Toyotas than we've seen out of the four car camp of JGR. So, and Ty Gibbs is really good on road races. Like yeah, he wanted didn't he win Theona road course in his, so he won
Speaker 2 00:37:42 Theona road course in his Xfinity debut when he was priced magically under 5k on draftings. It was so awesome.
Speaker 3 00:37:50 Yeah. Um, he did well at the Portland disaster of a race in Xfinity.
Speaker 2 00:37:55 No. So that was almond dinger, but Gibbs did win road America, which you were saying was probably closer to Watkins Clinton.
Speaker 3 00:38:01 Right? So like why would you jump for Kimmy racking and just to feed into the, to the, to the frenzy and if you wanna get some international flavor, I think, uh, Mike Rockfeller, uh, can give you that at 5,200.
Speaker 2 00:38:18 Okay. He's not American.
Speaker 3 00:38:20 No he's German
Speaker 2 00:38:22 Rock and feller sounds.
Speaker 3 00:38:24 I mean, um, super married by the way, this, this race is setting NASCAR history for the most, um, nationalities in a grid to start a NASCAR race ever. There's seven different nationalities in this race.
Speaker 2 00:38:38 Look at that.
Speaker 3 00:38:39 So Daniel SWES is Mexican. He's a full-time driver obviously. Uh, we've got, yeah. KA is Russian Heimans I think is Swiss. If I'm not mistaken, Kyle Tilley is British. Rockfeller is German. Uh, and uh, Iceman is, uh, Swedish if I'm not mistaken. Um, so yeah, so you've got, you've got quite the, uh, quite the group here, but I'm just saying like, if we're going with rope course ringers and you work F1 flavor, I mean, K was terrible at F one, but he's still cheap as
Speaker 2 00:39:22 I would not play Kette that car's car.
Speaker 3 00:39:24 It is. But I'm just saying like, why is, why is Reen in priced 2,500 bucks more than
Speaker 2 00:39:32 Because he's in a track house car?
Speaker 3 00:39:35 Is it worth that much?
Speaker 2 00:39:37 It might be <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:39:39 He's been in a track house car all season in the last five races. He's been garbage.
Speaker 2 00:39:43 Sure. But there are also people that are gunning for Chasta. And then there's also Chas Dan and the fact that he's a super aggressive driver and he's just me, he's wrecking himself more than he. Well, he is actually taking other people out with him.
Speaker 3 00:39:55 I mean the hashtag facts on that one <laugh> but like, yeah. So I don't know. I don't wanna poop all over. I can maybe he goes out there and sits like a real good practice time and qualifies. Well, and then I look like an idiot, but I, I'm not sure he finishes top 10.
Speaker 2 00:40:15 Um, I'm trying to see if there's anybody in this lower tier that might interest me cold Custer maybe, but at the same time,
Speaker 3 00:40:24 I mean, probably not
Speaker 2 00:40:25 Like there's the ninth at Indy, which we've touched on, uh, he was 15 at Rhode America, but like,
Speaker 3 00:40:36 Oh, whats, dunno what to do with
Speaker 2 00:40:38 You never feel well. Alright. So we talked about Dylan on the last, uh, road course podcast. It was
Speaker 3 00:40:43 Right because he had the two top 11 finishes to start the year. And then since then
Speaker 2 00:40:46 It's three, top 11 finishes. And then he, he was caught in the disaster fist. That was Indy.
Speaker 3 00:40:55 Okay.
Speaker 2 00:40:55 This value,
Speaker 3 00:40:57 But like road America. Wasn't great either.
Speaker 2 00:41:00 Yeah, that's fine. And that's fair. I think what it's gonna boil down to, with this value tier is that, uh, it's gonna come down to like, who's fast in this range and who's offering PD. Right? Um, I don't know. I didn't like really
Speaker 3 00:41:14 Trust Bubba for a second road race.
Speaker 2 00:41:18 I I'm not
Speaker 3 00:41:20 <laugh> that's that's about the answer I expected
Speaker 2 00:41:25 Only 68.
Speaker 3 00:41:28 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:41:29 He's only 68. Like he, he was probably not worthy of the $8,000 price tag last week, but I could stomach ping 6,800 for him. Maybe hoping he can get a top 15 some PD. Cause I mean, he's still finished in the top 15 in six straight races with three top fives in that span. One of them being a road course.
Speaker 3 00:41:48 Yeah. I mean they have certainly found,
Speaker 2 00:41:50 But other than that, he's been terrible. And he's even said like the joy on Bubba's face after road after Indianapolis of getting a top five, just kind of should let you know how historically bad he is on road courses. If he got that excited for a top five finish at Indy,
Speaker 3 00:42:08 He was still like braid it. Like you won a cup championship and it was a top, right. It was a, he was celebrating that he avoided the wrecks. Right. Cause his that's what happened. Um, by the way, Ty Dylan's missed price. There's no reason for him to be below Lejo or hand or Rockefeller. Um, Ty Dylan is a very sneaky good road racer. I know indie didn't work out for himm but
Speaker 2 00:42:34 Well, I mean that was Kyle Larson. That was
Speaker 3 00:42:37 Kind of exactly. He was, if he hadn't gotten run over by Kyle Larson, he finishes a
Speaker 2 00:42:42 Lot better. See, Ty Dylan is just gonna be that guy. That's probably gonna qualify outside the top 30. And then if he finishes like 22nd, you, you just take it and run.
Speaker 3 00:42:50 I mean he finish, he qualified 33rd, finished 20th in Coda. Right. And then we get to, um, Sonoma qualified, 34th finish 23rd. And then we get to Rhode America qualified 30th, finished 20th. And then he got run over by Kyle Larson and his fake ass break problem at indie. But he was running inside the top 20 at that point and qualified 30th. So you're getting like 10 spots of PD from Ty Dylan on road courses. And he's $5,100.
Speaker 2 00:43:31 Yeah. All in all. It's just, it's not a range you can feel great about, I guess if
Speaker 3 00:43:37 No, but we're at a road course. They don't have to pay value. You just need them to move up and finish better than where they start. That's
Speaker 2 00:43:43 That's fine. Yeah. We haven't actually, we usually mention that almost every road course podcast and I'm sorry I have the hiccups,
Speaker 3 00:43:50 Like, you know, normally we're hunting value. Right. But it's very hard to find five X value so to speak at road courses, unless you're talking about the guy that leads half the lap, which is entirely possible to have happen a few years ago, chase Elliott led like 80 of 90 laps in this race. Yeah. It was
Speaker 2 00:44:10 Awesome.
Speaker 3 00:44:11 It was. Yeah. For those of us that played him, it was fantastic. Um, cuz for some reason, a lot of people laid off chase that weekend. I don't remember exactly why <laugh> but I was like, uh, the guy's in the middle of winning five street road races go win a play. Um, so you don't necessarily, and with us theoretically avoiding the $10,000 guys, it might be a decent time to go save some money and go dip a little deeper than people prep. Like cuz if you're avoiding the $10,000 guys, right. And let's say you start building your lineup with, I don't know, Daniels Forez in 9,400 and then you go, oh I'll take a shot on Kevin hark and I'll take a shot on Chris. Busher like those. Yeah. And then you go, okay, Ty Gibbs is 6,900 let's we got two spots left. You got an average remaining of 87, 5.
Speaker 2 00:45:10 Oh you know what? I just did.
Speaker 3 00:45:12 What?
Speaker 2 00:45:14 Um, I don't know. I hope DK doesn't send me an angry email about this, but you can do, and we don't know where anyone's starting, but you can do har Bush or GIBS far as McDowell who he didn't talk about and Redick
Speaker 3 00:45:27 That's true. I mean we've given out lineups on this pod before anyway, so it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 2 00:45:33 They've been really cracking down on that crap. I saw, I like it's kind of stupid. Like they do nothing to really shut down lineup trains. All right. Oh my God. McDonald's been great on road courses
Speaker 3 00:45:42 This year. Yes. He's been very good. He finished like third at Sonoma. If I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 2 00:45:46 Uh, eighth at Indy eighth at Rhode America. Third at Sonoma and Coda was 13th, but he started 27th. Yeah. He's only 71.
Speaker 3 00:45:58 Yeah. And then so I, okay. We're saving this lineup <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:46:02 You? Okay. Screenshot it.
Speaker 3 00:46:04 Yeah, exactly. Um, cause that leaves you a hundred bucks. So I figured as much.
Speaker 3 00:46:10 <laugh> sorry. My apple horse picked up on something. I don't know. Sorry. Um, but see that's what I'm saying though, is that if you're not playing two of the elite dudes, you don't have to go that far down. So it might be a great way to get a differentiator in the cheap reigns that nobody's really because like he's buried between dudes that you're never gonna look at. Right? Like you get to Joey hand, you're like, I'm not playing that guy. Can't be anybody good down there. Cuz there's Joey hand Corola, joy, Rockfeller, KA Cody wear Heimans and Tilley all surrounded by Ty Dylan. So as a differentiator, the guy who's picked up almost 10 spots of, of road race this year could do worse.
Speaker 2 00:46:59 Nice. Uh, any other final thoughts on this race? Uh, I guess it it's worth saying like enjoy the NASCAR contests while they're still decent. Cause yeah.
Speaker 3 00:47:10 Cause I all
Speaker 2 00:47:11 Starts starts it's it just goes downhill. Like the
Speaker 3 00:47:15 One suck.
Speaker 2 00:47:16 Yeah. Like the Chrome horns for Xfinity and truck right now. Like top first place pays like 1500. Um, I know like once we get to like NFL season, then we get to like late September, October, November for Phoenix, like the, the Chrome horn for the cup series is it will be lucky if it stays at 10,000 the first.
Speaker 3 00:47:37 Yeah. Also there's splitting pots between F1 now too. Keep that in mind. So, um, F1 does return from their summer break next weekend. Um, there's a Saturday night cup Daytona race and then a Sunday morning F1 race for the Belgian grand Prix. Yeah. Um, so we do have that and then we got, then it's like a sprint to the finish for F1 cuz they go pack like another nine races in by the middle of um, so yeah, so we'll be back with that. Um, next week as well, we'll have playbooks out like normal for this weekend. Uh, projections out. Uh, probably I would assume Saturday after practice and qualifying is done for, uh, both series.
Speaker 2 00:48:30 Xfinity will play will be up Saturday morning. It's a tight window between yes. Practicing qualifying and the actual race. So I'll offer updates after practicing qualifying. I'll probably just do core plays instead of lineups. Uh, but that's pretty much it for me
Speaker 3 00:48:45 Also keep in mind, there is some rain last time I checked the forecast, there was some rain in the forecast for Sunday. Um, that's not a problem on road courses. They have rain tires that they can put on the cars. Um, so if it starts to rain, they just put those suckers on and keep, keep racing. Um, so that's good in terms of, you know, postponements or delays or, or whatnot. They also now have to wait for the tracks to dry, which is also a bonus. Um, so yeah, that's kinda the lay in for Watkins Glen and um, I don't know. Don't really have anything else. I mean we'll have price picks, plays out.
Speaker 2 00:49:31 Yeah. I'll try to do so for Xfinity. I kind of, I like prize picks. I like the concept. I, I don't like it for NASCAR because what's so nice about prize picks for like NBA or NFL, MMA hockey, pretty much any sport is like you're base, you know what the overline is. And even when you hit it in those sports, you hit it, but you could be hitting it in NASCAR and then a wreck or something kind of takes you outta that. So yeah. That's why I kind of like started shying away from prize pick for motor sports because the, the variance, like you could easily be winning and then with one lap to go, you could lose it all. And yeah, I just, I, I wasn't really a fan of it. I still like the product overall, but for NASCAR, I, I just don't really care for it.
Speaker 3 00:50:16 Yeah. I mean, I, you know, I could see that I do like that the scoring is very similar to, well basically identical to draftings. So if you have a theory of how people are gonna do do on draftings, you can basically go play it on, um, price picks. Um, so yeah, I mean, I get that where you have a, you know, in other sports you have a stat, you hit it. You're good. Or, you know, if you're playing the under, obviously you gotta Dodge that, but um, maybe the strategy for you should be play all the unders on the cars pass and then just root for Rex <laugh> <laugh> cause then you're guaranteed to, to hit the unders. Um, but yeah, that basically wraps up the walk-ins Glen one, we will have a podcast next week for, um, still have normal coverage, but again, just giving you heads up, you can basically play anybody at Daytona. Like there'll be a playbook out, it'll be a short podcast next week. But if, if we do one book, we, we probably will. But I mean, I'm assuming we will. Um, but yeah, Daytona's basically throw things at a dart board and I hope it hope one of them hits.
Speaker 3 00:51:32 All right, Matt. Well, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this week at Watkins Glen and best of luck to the best of.
