August 05, 2022


NASCAR DFS Podcast: FireKeepers Casino 400

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
NASCAR DFS Podcast: FireKeepers Casino 400
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
NASCAR DFS Podcast: FireKeepers Casino 400

Aug 05 2022 | 00:49:53


Show Notes

The NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series are in Michigan this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. Dan Malin, and FSWA Award-Winner Matt Selz get you set for NASCAR DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel for the FireKeepers Casino 400 with strategy and driver breakdowns for the race. Get your DFS research jumpstarted with this week's NASCAR DFS Podcast.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your Speaker 2 00:00:22 Engines. What's going on nation. Welcome back fantasy alarms, NASCAR DFS podcast. I'm Dan Malan joined by the Fs w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt, how are you? What did you think of another chaotic, possibly even more chaotic indie road course race? Speaker 3 00:00:38 Uh, it was definitely chaotic. That's a very good name for it. I, again, only saw bits and pieces. I took my kids to the Omaha zoo with some friends of ours on Sunday. Um, kind of checked out a little bit, had to, you know, clear my head a little bit after the, uh, run we've had this summer. So, uh, yeah, it was, it was pretty, pretty nuts to say the least, um, tempers flared. Again, there were penalties given out, although I would contend that some drivers got away with stuff that other drivers didn't. Um, and then we saw Hendrick throw their own driver under the bus at the end of the race too. Cuz Kyle Larson missed the turn and went full send and said he had a brake failure. And then like the day after the race Henrick came out and said, yeah, we didn't see any signs of failed brakes. I think our guy just got in there too hot <laugh> so that's, that's not cool, but um, I don't know what, where are you on the discussion of, should it go back to like oval or should we give the RAL another try, Speaker 2 00:01:43 Um, Speaker 3 00:01:43 Or moving to I R P Speaker 2 00:01:45 Well, here's my thought is that I've always spoken highly of how much I love this road course. And I think it's because I mostly do most of my DFS research for, uh, the Xfinity series and the Xfinity series seems like they tend to put on a good show at this track for the three years that they've been running the first year was phenomenal. Uh, even this year's great was still good, even though for DFS, it seems like all my chord guys that I was overweight on, it seems like they were either like penalized in stage three or they had a Flaco down or they got wrecked or something. So I was having a great day DFS wise for community and then ultimately took like a slight hit. But for the cup series, I think road course racing in general has been, I guess, slightly underwhelming. And as much as I love the road course, I, I wouldn't hate giving the next gen car a shot on the oval. Now I will say that there are still significant concerns about how narrow pit road is. Speaker 3 00:02:41 Yes. Um, well the last time they raced the oval, we saw a 14 car wreck on pit road. Exactly. I was it Bush or McDowell that spun at the start of pit R it was one of 'em that spun at the start of pit road and backed like everybody else up. Speaker 2 00:02:55 Yeah. And then somebody, one of the was one crew drug, uh, crew guy got his like leg broken or something. Yes. Uh, cause he was hit by a car on pit road. Speaker 3 00:03:04 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:03:05 Uh, so ultimately I think if you wanna improve the quality of racing and I think the complaint now is that there are probably too many road courses on the schedule. So if, if they wanted to do an Indianapolis weekend where you have, you know, the trucks at IRP, cuz the I P race was great. It was very entertaining. It was just solid racing. Keep the Xfinity series on the road course and then keep, or just move the, the cup series back to the oval. I'm fine with that. I have a very hard time imagining NASCAR would take the cup series out of Indianapolis motor Speedway and move it to I R P Speaker 3 00:03:38 Yeah, I would, I would tend to agree with that sentiment. Now, the only thing to keep in mind is that Indy also like Indy car was also there this weekend and embraced the road course. So the question I get is can Indy flip the, the road, like flip it from the oval to the road course and back fast enough because I know that's the thing with Charlotte, right? Is it takes a while to be able to flip it back to using the oval cuz you have to set up barricades so that they go, like they don't just keep shooting down the straightaway and at indie road, I know that they didn't really put up barricades, AKA that's how you get the <laugh> the full send and turn one that got Ross Chasteen penalized. Um, so I, yeah, I don't know. We'll see, I don't, I don't really get the drivers going. Speaker 3 00:04:27 Well, it was a crown jewel race to be on the oval. Okay. But it, to me, it's not a crown jewel. If you start racing it in 1996, like that's fair. Darlington started racing in the, in the like sixties, right. The Coke 600 is a crown jewel cuz it's the longest race. And it's been on the schedule since the sixties. Yeah. I don't see how the Brickyard 400 that just got on the schedule in my lifetime in both of our lifetimes should count as a crown jewel. And, and like, I get, you want to raise the oval cuz indie races it, whatever. But indie also races the road course. So that argument doesn't necessarily hold to me. Um, so we'll see what they do. The 2023 schedule is supposed to be out in like a month. I think I heard clearly Chicago is on there. Uh, that's gonna suck <laugh> um, road. America's almost as assuredly off. I think it's basically guaranteed that it's off the schedule, which also sucks. Um, Speaker 2 00:05:36 Is that really the only change? Like have they recommit, have they said, because I figured we would've heard an announcement or a rumor that the NASCAR was considering moving the cup series back to the oval. I'm almost I'm operating under the assumption that they're just back on the road course in 2023. Speaker 3 00:05:51 I'm pretty sure they said that they would run it in 2023. Yeah. I'm pretty sure GSI who owns it. Um, or so does no pen, sorry. Penske owns it. Sorry. Got the, uh, the captain and <laugh> gonna, as he screwed up, uh, Penske, I'm pretty sure came out and said that they would be on the road course in 2023 because that's what the deal Speaker 2 00:06:11 Okay. Speaker 3 00:06:11 Was. And then after that they would discuss it. Um, so Speaker 2 00:06:16 Tell you what that's gonna be the case then next year's indie road course is just a phenomenal race to really chase long shot beds. Speaker 3 00:06:24 That's true. Speaker 2 00:06:25 Cause I mean so many, uh, Harrison Burton top 10, I think was 34. Top three. Speaker 3 00:06:30 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:06:31 Uh, yeah. And he finished third, uh, Bubba top Toyota, which, which I luckily had exposure to was Speaker 3 00:06:37 A hundred, by the way, you didn't get the best line on that. Speaker 2 00:06:41 I didn't, I saw somebody get one 50 to one on Speaker 3 00:06:43 That. I saw somebody get 5,000 to one on, on, or like, uh, 500, sorry, 500 to one on that. This is seen, I don't know what book they used, but it had to been a Tuesday bet when the lines first came out. And so yeah, congrats on the two grand, but sorry to make you feel bad that <laugh> you get five times more money I Speaker 2 00:07:03 Expect Speaker 3 00:07:04 On your bet. Speaker 2 00:07:07 Uh, anyway, so I guess the other thing I wanted to talk about is like, what is the DFS approach that we take the rest of the season? Cuz it's obviously been a very frustrating yeah. Uh, season DFS wise with more variance than normal. And I have no shame in saying that I've really been scaling back what I've been playing on the cup series. Uh, this past week I used some crowns to enter the $3 three entry max contest, but I only played the Chrome horn. I mean, and usually I'm into playing in the $50 single entry, the 12, the 24, the $20, three injury. Like I love throwing a lot of money at GPP, but this year, um, you know, I'm not bleeding my entire bank roll, but at the same time, it's like it. I just haven't had the hits and I could blame the new car and, and tires falling off and all that crap. But it's just been a very frustrating year and the contests on DK and the payouts, they only get worse from here on out with NA with NFL coming back. Speaker 3 00:08:01 Right. That's also true because we're recording this on Friday morning. Um, so the hall of fame game has already happened. So there you go. We got one NFL game in the books for the preseason. Um, so I don't know. I feel like my research and my process has been good. I feel like for the most part I have felt pretty good about the plays for most of the race and then something happened. And I don't know there, there's not really a way to factor that in. I don't feel like, I mean maybe, you know, there's some algorithm we could come up with that takes us into account pit times and variance of tires falling off or flats or it's just not this guy's weak or, you know, I don't know, but it was look, it is, it's been not gonna not gonna cover it up. It's been disappointing. Uh, especially since we were very, uh, good last year, very hot to start the year, last year, I think we had what, 10 straight races where somebody won at least a thousand bucks. Um, and this year that hasn't happened. So I don't really know exactly where it's going wrong, cuz like, I feel like no matter which one of us does the playbook or does the lead on the research, we're both pretty well on good place. Like, Speaker 2 00:09:33 Yeah. And then I just think that, I mean, it also just sucks in general because we're coming off a week where there was a ton of variance at a road course, which normally isn't the case, right? Like the optimal lineup, uh, left like 70 what left $7,100 on the table. And it was about, there was a 40 point difference between the optimal lineup and what actually took down draft King's big GPP like that. Speaker 3 00:09:58 Was it 40? Or was it higher? Speaker 2 00:10:00 It could have been like 40 to 50 or something. I thought it was at least 40. It could have been more. Speaker 3 00:10:04 Yeah. I thought like what took down GP, Speaker 2 00:10:06 There, there a sizable gap between the optimal and what took it down? Speaker 3 00:10:09 Yeah, the optimal, I think was 3 26 or something and somebody took down the $15 GPP with a 2 41 or two 50. Yeah. Which is a huge, I mean, you're talking if it's an 80 point difference. That's a third of the points like that. Somebody took it down with added on. So you're only at 75% of the optimal, which is a very large difference. Um, yeah. I, I don't know. It feels like every week you've gotta basically try to play a plate track strategy. Speaker 2 00:10:45 I've almost started just making two lineups every week for the Chrome horn that make absolutely no sense. Yeah. And it's only $4 per lineup, but it's like, you know, I gotta try something different and I'm trying to limit, I'm really trying to focus on my exposures cuz a lot of times early in the season I was getting way too careless and being way too overweight on uh, chalky drivers. And I really am trying to the past few weeks just be much more disciplined with, you know, setting my exposure limits to maybe 35% tops, but we push forward. Speaker 3 00:11:20 Yeah. I mean, look, there's four races left in the regular season for the cup series, then the playoffs begin. Um, and obviously every driver's still playable in the playoffs that doesn't really change for DFS. There's a little bit more strategy involved in the playoff guys in terms of how they're going for things and whatnot. But um, yeah, I look, I don't know cuz if you bank on guys showing up in practice and then being good in the race that hasn't always worked out, if you go based off of track history, comparable tracks for that season that hasn't always worked out. So it's kind of like, you know, you just gotta throw the narrative out the window sometimes. Cuz I like to build lineups based off of trying to envision what happens during the race. Like here's, here's a storyline throughout the race, this guy's gonna lead early and then there's gonna be some pit stops and then maybe some things get shuffled back and he takes the guy a little bit to get back up to the front or um, or whatnot. But it seems like the lineups that hit most of the time are the ones that don't necessarily have a narrative or their narrative is pure chaos and they're hitting all the time. Speaker 2 00:12:34 Mm-hmm <affirmative>, Speaker 3 00:12:35 <laugh> like we gotta go with the joker line up instead of the dark night. Speaker 2 00:12:40 Well, let's start discussing Michigan cuz admittedly uh, not my favorite race on the schedule. Although this was the, the, the track a few years ago where I had my first big hit on NASCAR DSS. Yes. But since then Speaker 3 00:12:54 Left it in the first of the two Michigan races, like three years ago. Speaker 2 00:12:59 Uh, but since then not my favorite race. It's not that I necessarily have gone back to sucking at this track. Uh, I just haven't really cared for the quality of racing, although who knows the next gen, I really showed up at auto club and it looked pretty good on like the non drafting mile and a half this Speaker 3 00:13:17 Year. Yeah. Agreed. Um, it's made intermediate it's way more entertaining. Um, and also the last couple years in Michigan they've had back to back, they've had double header races here, much like they had at Pocono. Um, so that kind of took a little bit of the luster off of the, the racing cuz the back half of that race was just about positioning yourself for the next day. Um, that's obviously not the case this year, there's only one Michigan race. This is the only time they're gonna go to Brooklyn, Michigan in the middle of the Irish Hills. Um, but yeah, I would say that the comparable tracks clearly auto club is comparable as two miles. The, the tire wear here is not anywhere close to what it is at auto club. Um, but it is a two mile D shaped Al the banking is also steeper here than it is at auto club, which means there's a lot more speed in this track, uh, than there typically is at auto club. We could compare Kansas to it a little bit. You could compare Vegas to it. Charlotte compares pretty well to it. Those are generally the ones that, uh, compare based on the next gen car. So I don't know this, I feel like this week is gonna be a very true test of speed for the teams. Speaker 2 00:14:33 All right. Uh, Speaker 3 00:14:34 Oh and there's new tires. Speaker 2 00:14:36 Yeah. This is a brand new tire combination. Right? They have not run this set. Speaker 3 00:14:39 They have not run it at any point this year except an a tire test wonderful here, which, uh, I think had three drivers at it. I think, I think Lagano was one Austin. Dylan was one and there's, there was another, there was another guy at that tire test. Let me go to J ski real quick and check it. Cuz they, they had mentioned that on the Goodyear tire notes there. Um, Bubba. Yeah. Bubba was at the tire test, Austin, Dylan and Joey Lagano were at the tire test here in the end of may into the beginning of June. So yeah. Speaker 2 00:15:23 All right. Uh, just two races this weekend F one is in its summer break. The trucks are off, which has, seems like the trucks have been racing almost every weekend for two and a half months. Um, but uh, we get Xfinity on Saturday cup on Sunday. It's a loaded Saturday for the NASCAR schedule. They have Xfinity practice and qualifying early in the morning. And then I think they have ACA after that then cup practice and qualifying is after that. And then the Xfinity race and then the arc race. I don't know why the arc race is after the Xfinity race. That should never be the case in my opinion. Uh, but we March forward, my Xfinity playbook will be up Saturday morning before practice and qualifying. And then I will try to have updates during and after qualifying. So hopefully a finalized, uh, playbook and probably just core plays. Uh, that'll be up by noon on Saturday if I, if I'm feeling special or if I'm feeling good about the lineups in a building, I'll throw an example lineup, but uh, I'm also on the cup playbook this week. Speaker 3 00:16:27 You are, I have family in town, um, this weekend. So you have graciously, uh, taken over the cup playbook, uh, for that I will still do the projections probably Saturday evening, I would imagine. Um, and, uh, you know, and then Dan will have the, uh, the core blazer example, lineups, whichever he feels best about for the cup race on Sunday as well. Um, one thing to note though, with ACA coming, be with the ACA practice coming between Xfinity and cup is that ACA runs a different tire. So the rubber on those tires are different. So the first group or cup practice is gonna put out some very interesting times cuz they're gonna be running on ACA rubber. The second group in practice for cup is probably gonna run faster. Um, so just be, just be conscious of that. Don't say, oh, everybody in the second practice was definitely faster than everybody in the first practice, cuz it's gonna depend on tire rubber. That's on the track, uh, weather for this. Weekend's supposed to be in the mid eighties, basically all weekend there. And I saw last time I checked, there was less than a 40% chance of rain on both days. So hopefully, hopefully that's, uh, that's avoided this week. Speaker 2 00:17:57 All right. Let's dig in. Uh, chase Elliott prior to last week was on one hell of a run with, you could make the argument that he had three ish wins <laugh> in his last five races, uh, finished 16th on road course. Very weird. Uh, but it was just one of those races, but he's the most expensive driver on the slate followed by his teammate, Kyle Larson. Uh, we get five drivers priced, uh, 10 K or above three of them are Chevys. Uh, the other two being Kyle Bush and Denny Hamlin, uh, who is the top spend up option in this range? I can't imagine why it would be Denny Hamlin. Speaker 3 00:18:32 Yeah. I don't know, man, that guy just doesn't have speed. Like I, I don't, I don't get it. Yes. He won at Pocono. Okay. But he started on the pole and won. It had 16 fastest laps and 21 lap led in a 200 lap race or 160 lap race. Sorry. So he's he only led 12% of the lamps from the pole on a track where the pole usually does. Well. Um, I, I, I don't know. It's, it's pretty interesting to me. Um, that Denny is this high again. Yes. He wanted Charlotte. We said that's a comparative track. He did do so well that, uh, he was only okay at Kansas. So I, I'm not sure. Um, why he is that high, but to me, I gotta say Ross chestain is probably the pay up Speaker 2 00:19:31 Probably if we're just going off, what we saw at, are you putting a lot of emphasis? Yeah. Cuz I mean he's been fast everywhere. Good point. Um <laugh> but I mean he was, he looked good at auto club earlier this year, a lot of the mile and a half. So like that car's just always shown up a speed, I guess. I don't know. He's just becoming like an easy play every week for either PD, if he qualifies poorly or you know, he's a contender for dominator points. Speaker 3 00:19:57 Yeah, exactly. Like I, I don't know, like I'm fine paying the 10 K for, um, for chest pain. I'm not fine paying ten three for Denny unless he absolutely blows the socks off the place. Um, so you know, the last time we saw Denny be really quick, they were disqualified for cheating. So <laugh>, it's kinda hard to imagine. They can find that speed again and make it legal. Um, Kyle Larson, I mean he does have, he, he does have a very good history here. He did win here quite a lot early in his career. In fact, chase Elliott finished second to him, three times in a row here. Um, Speaker 2 00:20:41 Didn't he win this race earlier or he won auto club earlier in there. Right? Yeah. Ran it. He didn't have the best car. Speaker 3 00:20:47 Yeah. He won auto club. It was kind of, I mean he still led 28 laps out of a 200 lap race. That's okay. But I mean, yeah, he did well there. He did well at, at Vegas. Um, my only complaint about Larson is he seems to be doing well, but not dominating races. Speaker 2 00:21:10 Yeah. That's a good assessment. Speaker 3 00:21:12 I mean he dominated. Can you say he dominated the cook 600 when he led 51 laps? Speaker 2 00:21:17 Well, I think we we've talked about this before. Speaker 3 00:21:20 I mean he led 51 of basically 200 laps. Cause you have to start his race Speaker 2 00:21:24 Law. First half of the race, his Speaker 3 00:21:25 Car literally caught fire <laugh> and then by the way, speaking of catching fire, Chris Bush caught fire. Speaker 2 00:21:32 He was two laps down and two, Speaker 3 00:21:33 Two lefts down with like what, 20 to go or something and somehow finished 10 <laugh>. Yeah. Like that Speaker 2 00:21:39 Your car catches fire. That's actually a good thing. Speaker 3 00:21:42 Yeah. Used to, used to knock Kyle Larson out of the Texas race and now it helps him dominate races. Um, so I don't know. I look, if I was ranking the guys over 10 K it'd probably be chesting one chase two, then it's a toss up between the Kyles and Denny. I'm just not enthused about it. 10, three. Speaker 2 00:22:03 I think I can get pretty excited about Kyle Bush. I'm not even enthused or interested in Hamlin. Probably not gonna be very excited about true X either. Uh, but Kyle Bush like got speed. I mean, there's still the storylines regarding his contract and you know, will he be back with JGR? Does he end up at HR? Uh, but Kyle Bush has shown up with speed. I mean only has the win on Bristol dirt, but you know, if he can get the solid finish, which we haven't seen lately, like that's been a big issue for him, you know, he right finished second. Um, the, Speaker 3 00:22:41 Yeah, Speaker 2 00:22:42 Poking Speaker 3 00:22:42 Man. And technically Speaker 2 00:22:43 I tell you cannot remember the tracks anymore. Speaker 3 00:22:46 Technically he finished second cuz he was also DEQ at punk. <laugh> take second. But aside Speaker 2 00:22:52 From that, Speaker 3 00:22:53 Yeah, you had to go back from that gateway to find his last top 10 finish. Speaker 2 00:22:58 Um, so kind of all over the place, but I still feel best about among the Toyotas and everyone in this range, aside from chase and Ross, uh, I feel best about Kyle Bush, not too interested in X, the price tag on Redick is really jumping Speaker 3 00:23:14 Well. I mean he's won two of the last, Speaker 2 00:23:17 Right? Yeah. There were road courses and granted, Speaker 3 00:23:19 But he finished fourth at Pocono. Speaker 2 00:23:23 Well, I was mostly gonna go off of the fact that this car was dominant at auto club earlier in the year. And I understand like I don't want to put too much, uh, weight into auto club because the tire wear is yes it's night and day between club Michigan <laugh>. Um, but I also just think like it's a two mile track. I think that this is the kind of track where he could have success. Is this the kind, kind of track that he can run the Highline or does it not really matter? Speaker 3 00:23:48 I mean, there are kind of multiple grooves, but it doesn't necessarily, um, matter. I mean he'll make one of the grooves work for him for sure. Um, yeah. I mean look, Redick has been really fast, a lot of places, but I also feel like he's either gonna be really fast and get a good finish or he's gonna wreck out pretty quickly. Like he's kind of, if you look, if you look at his, so he's got 10 top tens this year two wins and his average finish the 16.3, that kind of tells you all, you need to all you need to know about that. Now one of those, I guess it's okay. So one of the top tens isn't the tool. So that doesn't really count. So nine top tens is what we're going with here. Um, so look, nine top tens, two wins and an average finish to 16.3 kind of tells you he's either gonna <laugh> do really well or he is gonna crash out pretty quickly. Um, but yeah, I, I mean, I'm fine with the 9,700 based on his speed, that's 300 less than it was at as we, Speaker 2 00:25:04 Uh, do we go back to the well with Ryan Blaney this week? Speaker 3 00:25:10 God, I don't know. Speaker 2 00:25:11 Hoping he finally gets a Speaker 3 00:25:12 Win. I was one year before. Right. But so here's, here's the interesting issue with Michigan for the playoff bubble. And this, I believe was a tweet from Bob PS. If I'm not mistaken in the last nine Michigan races afford to winner the winner of that, of those nine races have already had wins earlier in the year. No driver has gotten their first win of the season at Michigan in the last nine trips to Michigan. So Speaker 2 00:25:41 I guess that makes sense because it's so deep in the schedule Speaker 3 00:25:43 That doesn't bode well for Blaney, but he's done well here before. Um, I don't know, man, there's something tantalizing about that speed and the fact that, you know, it used to be owned by Penske and Ford is right down the road. Usually the Ford drivers make it a very big weekend, um, here that they don't wanna lose out. Um, so there is that going in his favor, but man, I don't know. Speaker 2 00:26:19 I saw in DK sports book yesterday that the Fords were getting, uh, like basically plus 4 25 to win Speaker 3 00:26:27 Like any Ford. Speaker 2 00:26:29 Yeah. And like Chevy was at, I think plus one 10 and I think Toyota was at plus one 50. Don't quote me on that. But I remember the Fords were the longest and uh, I thought it was pretty tempting. Speaker 3 00:26:41 Yeah. 17 to I'm looking right right now. And it's 17 to four for Ford to win. So 17 divided by four is Speaker 2 00:26:51 Four and a quarter Speaker 3 00:26:52 Four and a quarter plus what? 25. Yeah. And they are the longest, I mean Chevy is even, and Toyota's plus one 50. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:27:00 Of, Speaker 3 00:27:03 I would. I mean, I understand why. Right. Cause Fords in general have shown the least amount of speed mm-hmm <affirmative> of the three, but you'd have to assume that this is gonna be a race weekend that they wanna show up for. And typically this year when we least expect the Fords to show up is when they show up. Speaker 2 00:27:23 Uh, I guess we can just round out the rest of Penske, uh, Joey Laos, 8,800. I don't know. I think I'm okay with the price tag, but it really depends on where he starts because I don't know how that guy has two wins on the air. Um, I mean he finished six last week, but then it was four straight finishes outside the top 20. Yeah. Haven't really loved the speed. I really am much more interested in Austin C who finished second, last week, um, has just been running better overall. Uh, and I like what I'm seeing outta that car and he's still, you know, just under eight K when, you know, from June to July, we were seeing top 10 speed outta that car. Speaker 3 00:28:06 Yeah, I would, I would agree. Um, my only thing with look Ono is he did do the tire test here earlier. So he does have a little bit of familiarity with this car on those tires at this track. Um, but again, good, year's gonna share that data with everybody. So only he knows how it feels compared to the data that show that for whatever everybody else use. But I'm kind of with you, if they're starting in similar spots, I'd rather save the money and go with Crick, Speaker 2 00:28:41 All, uh, sticking in the midrange, uh, Kevin hark 8,400, which is a pretty nice price tag for a guy that can just easily go out there and get a top 10, uh, Alex Bowman, 8,200, he has only $100 more than Eric Jones, which is kind of crazy. Uh, but Bowman's had a very, very rough stretch. Uh, hasn't a top 10 since the Coke, 600 in Charlotte. Um, and four of his last six finishes have been outside the top 30. Now he's had some bad luck with some pretty unfortunate Rex. Uh, but it's been a rough stretch since he got his, since he backed into his win, uh, a few months ago. Yeah, Speaker 3 00:29:23 Actually Speaker 2 00:29:24 Like five months ago. Speaker 3 00:29:25 Yeah. Back in March. <laugh> um, yeah, I look, I, you know that I like Eric Jones, but at this price tag, there's no justifying playing Alex Bowman over Eric Jones right now. Speaker 2 00:29:40 It's his home track though. Speaker 3 00:29:44 Yeah. It's Eric Jones's home track. Yes. Yeah. Um, that's what I'm saying. I'd rather play Eric Jones. Speaker 2 00:29:52 Oh, okay. Okay. I got you. I was Speaker 3 00:29:54 It basically the same price tag? There's no justifying playing Alex Bowman over Eric Jones. Okay. Based on Speaker 2 00:29:59 The, and plus wasn't it was it announced last week or the week before that Jones is coming back to petty. Uh, next season Speaker 3 00:30:06 It was one of the, it was pretty recently, um, that I think it was before Pocono, maybe mm-hmm <affirmative> um, that he was that it was announced that he's coming back. So he's got that behind him and he is racing like it cuz in the last four races he's finished 19th or better with three of 'em being 15th or better. Um, and he's gotten all sorts of PD in most of those races. Yeah. Like at Pocono started 34th finished 11th at Quaker state, which was at Atlanta started 25th. Got fourth. Yes. It's a plate track, but still that's pretty impressive. Um, indie road, he knows chaos, but he avoided it moved up 20 spots. Um, so you know, I look, I like Eric Jones. I think the price tag. Yes. It's going up. I think there's good reason for it. He did finish third at auto club earlier this year. Um, and ran respected. Like he started second finished third had 23 fastest laps in lead 18. So it wasn't like a shock that he finished top three. Mm. Um, so yeah, that price tag. I don't, I don't see why you wouldn't take the shot on, um, Jones over Bowman given their recent luck. Speaker 2 00:31:25 Uh, we've already touched on Austin, chase Brisco. I think he's just kind of turning back into chase. Brisco has top end upside, but always kind of tough to gauge, but bubble Wallace has been fantastic recently. Yeah. Last week at Indy road course is best career finish on a road course. And he was ecstatic about it. Speaker 3 00:31:46 Uh, I mean he should be like Speaker 2 00:31:48 Two top five finishes in his last three races and three straight top tens. Like he's been very consistent. Speaker 3 00:31:54 Yeah. And he ran he's run. Now I will say some of these bad finishes aren't entirely his fault. Right. A lot was made of the pit crew mm-hmm <affirmative>, which now seems to be settled because they swapped bels and his, and that seems to have done the trick cuz it won Bel a race and then it's gotten above us three straight top tens. Um, but I will say at Kansas, if that's a comparable track, which we consider it to be, he was very, very fast at that race. He passed everybody and their mother like four times, um, and finished top 10, he ran pretty well at auto club. I know that's only the second race of the year, but it is comparable in terms of distance. So he ran pretty well there. I have really no problem paying this for he's shown the consistency. The Toyotas are finding speed. And if we believe in the other Toyotas, why wouldn't we believe in, in this one? Um, so yeah, that's kind of I'm, I'm fine with it again. Would I be, look, I think the ideal starting spot for him is somewhere in the mid teens. Cause I, so you Speaker 2 00:33:05 You're still getting some leverage. Speaker 3 00:33:06 Yeah. You're still getting leverage because people aren't gonna think that, oh, it's Bubba. He can't do it again. Right. And so they're gonna just look for the guy starting behind him or like that are in the same price bracket. Um, so ideally that would be a good starting spot for him. If you want leverage over the field. Speaker 2 00:33:27 Uh, I can't imagine we're gonna be super excited about Austin, Dylan, unless he's offering some PD, but the rash Fenway Klasky drivers are up next. Chris Busher 7,100 Brad Klowski 6,900. Nice on his home track. I'm coming around. Uh, I know Klowski is still a bit of a wild card and more of a GPP play, but we've seen on multiple occasions that he can hit 40 plus points. And at this price tag I'm on board with that for GPP, can't really trust him enough for cash games, but Bush's been getting a lot of hype. Um, cuz last he's been giving him a lot of credit and talking to him up in the media and saying that he's one of the more underrated drivers in the series Speaker 3 00:34:09 He's in the middle of a career year. Speaker 2 00:34:11 Yeah. Like it's been a very great year for Busher. Um, I mean, I know we've debated these two before and I think we settle on Busher as probably the safer play, but I'm, I'm liking how they're both trending and cuz Lasky. I remember when he was getting crapped on earlier in the year about his poor start, you know, he was clapping back on social media and saying that, you know, in his first year at Penske, I think it took, you know, a while until they got a top 10 took even longer until they got a top five. And I think it took, I didn't don't even think he got a win in his first season with Penske. So, you know, like Rome isn't built in the day, but I like the progress that I've just been seeing out of RFK, as long as the cars are running clean and we're not getting a ton of variance. Speaker 3 00:34:55 Right. If they can keep 'em clean, they've had speed in these cars. Right. Yeah. That seems to be Kansas. He ran very well finished at 14. Uh Klowski. That is at, um, Vegas. It was okay. I think he got trapped back late, um, auto club. I think there was an issue late in that one again, tire wear was, although it was very beginning of the year. We all know how bad Rosh was at the start of the year. So for ke we're going mostly on what we've seen lately, which is more consistent speed. And again, I will probably lean towards having more Busher than ke but the home track and, and yes, it is a home track for Klowski. He does wanna win at his home track cuz no Michigander has ever won at Michigan mm-hmm Speaker 2 00:35:48 <affirmative> um, is that what they're called Michiganders? Speaker 3 00:35:50 Yes. Um, unless you're from the upper peninsula and then you're um, that was geography facts with Matt sales <laugh> um, but my concern with that is if it gets late, he might push to try to make a move to win and it may not go in his favors. My only concern with, with cats cuz we've seen late race pushes not work so well for him elsewhere. <laugh> like Daytona last year, <laugh> Speaker 2 00:36:22 Uh, dipping below Kaz. We're entering this very interesting tier of drivers under seven K and you could make an argument for a lot of them. I'm actually, and I'll, I'll just list him off. Eric Amoro is 6,800 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 6,700 who has six top tens on the year. And ha I wanna say this is a track that can play to his strengths. Ty Gibbs is 6,600 and we know he's in the 45 again. Um, you know, still getting his feet wet. Uh, but he does have a pair of top twenties in the first two races that he's subbed in for Kurt, Kurt Bush, Michael McDowell, 10 top tens on the season, which is Speaker 3 00:37:01 Career best for him too. Speaker 2 00:37:03 Uh, yeah, I mean that's more than, uh, Eric Jones, Kurt Bush, but Kurt's missed a few races. Crick Dylan Bush or Hamlin Byron. Um, yeah, incredible year for Michael McDowell. I mean this range, this six K range. I mean we're getting a cup series debut from Austin Hill coal Custer probably on the outs is 6,200. I I think people are, um, entertaining the idea of playing coal Custer. Yeah. Uh, but just a loaded range of pretty good value plays here. Speaker 3 00:37:31 Yeah. Harrison Burton, by the way, Ty Dylan in the comparable tracks this year has finished between 13th and 20th and all of them. Speaker 2 00:37:38 Okay. Speaker 3 00:37:39 Interesting. So there's that we get Gregson back again. Um, we get, you know, Austin Hill. I don't look, I don't know how well he's run in lower series. It is a third RCR card. Let Speaker 2 00:37:55 Me check. Speaker 3 00:37:56 Um, I don't know if we like, are we trusting the equipment or are we trusting the drivers more with RCR? Cause it feels like we're making a pretty distinct thing that we're trusting the drivers more cuz we like Redick, but we don't like Dylan in there ostensibly in the same equipment. Right. Speaker 2 00:38:13 So I don't know. I feel like Red's probably the only RCR driver that I would want any interests or exposure to. Speaker 3 00:38:19 Right. I mean, Boston hill is gonna just try to keep the car clean in his cup series debut. Speaker 2 00:38:24 He did win the truck series race here back in 2019, finished 12th here in 2020 and 19 and 2018 obviously has not raced the Xfinity series at Michigan Speaker 3 00:38:34 Yet. Right. So it's a pretty steep learning curve going from the trucks to the cup series cuz they drive completely differently. Arrow on the vehicles are totally different driving style, totally different. Um, now you're talking about the next gen cup car. So breaking points are different throttles, totally different. So I'm not, not that high on Austin Hill simply cuz I just don't usually like playing guys in their debuts unless it's tight Gibbs. Um, but speaking of tight Gibbs, I think he's gonna be pretty popular at 6,600 on DK. Yeah. Van's a little more interesting cuz he's priced right near Kirk Bush on Vandal. Um, right at like I think 7,800 and Kurt was like 82. Um, so that's a little interesting to me. The DK went the cheap route and we've seen two top twenties from tide GIS. Speaker 2 00:39:30 I will say it seems like the strategy forgives, uh, so far in two cup races is like they just, they just wanna minimize mistakes with him. Like they haven't, I don't feel like they've been incredibly aggressive in what they're letting him do. And so I'm hoping that, you know, if he is gonna, if Kurt's gonna keep missing some races, I would like to see the training wheels come off Gibbs a little bit. I understand he's still very young. I don't even think he's 20. Um, Speaker 3 00:40:00 I think you're, I think you're right. I think he's 19. Speaker 2 00:40:02 Yeah. And so I underst understand that there's some hesitancy, but I would, I would like to see them maybe let him drive the car a little more. These two races in he's as much as we can complain about him being a bit of a brat and you know, basically just being gifted, uh, his seat, like he is a very good driver. Uh, yes. And I, and I, he strikes me as a, as a kid that can learn very fast and I would like to see just more flexibility in the team in the organization, just letting him like, just see what he can do. And maybe I'm not saying he's gonna like get a win like he did in, in his Xfinity series debut. But I would love to see just a top 10, but it's not gonna come at low ownership. Speaker 3 00:40:46 No. And this price tag doesn't indicate that he'll be low owned. I think he'll be one of the more popular guys. I think Eric Ole is a sneaky, good play here this week. I really do. And you go back to early in the year when they raised an auto club and Vegas, which are two comparable tracks. Also he ran well at Kansas. Um, I think he's a sneaky play this week. Also. He's done well at Michigan in the past too. Um, I'm pretty sure that Eric Amar was the key to you taking down one of your big pays a few, uh, a few Michigan races to Speaker 2 00:41:27 Go. I think it was him and Suarez Speaker 3 00:41:29 Like yeah, cuz he finished back to back six place finishes. Um, like yeah, he he's run. He's run pretty well at Michigan. So I think, I think a lot of people just have him pegged as a and for the most part I've been feeding this narrative too that he's a short, flat track type guy, but yeah, I think being in a Ford, being in a track that he's comfortable at, this could be a sneaky spot for, for Elmar. Speaker 2 00:42:03 Uh, let's see. August, 2020. Yeah, finish sixth. Um, it's not his only top 10 back in 2018. He finished seven. So I think there's some appeal there. Um, cool. Custer. Not interested. No. Um, I don't know. Just, I have a hard time just getting off Justin Haley. I understand like he's not breaking the slate, but if you look at his draftings profile, he's rarely killing you. I mean yep. In his last three races and granted at 5,900, he's not uh, hitting immense value, but 23 points, 26, 28, 57, 28. You know, he, he does have some 30 and 40 point performances on the year. Um, and it's a big track. I feel like this is a track that if the collar cars can find the same speed that they had earlier in the year, I mean, we've, we've said it a couple times. Like Haley just shows up with an absolute rocket at practice and I could see it happening this weekend. Speaker 3 00:42:57 Agreed. Um, I'm still on the Todd father train with Todd Gilland. Speaker 2 00:43:01 Yeah, I get that. That price tag is too cheap. Speaker 3 00:43:04 He dropped, Speaker 2 00:43:05 Yeah, that's stupid. He Speaker 3 00:43:07 Went down $200 on DK from a top four finish at, at indie road last week. Like he's cheaper than he was when he finished 27 to Pocono. He's like way cheaper than he was when he pulled off a top 17 at Atlanta. It's just insane. Like if you go back to, he's almost a thousand dollars cheaper than he was at auto club when he started 26 and finished 20th. Yeah. Um, and Vegas started 30th to finished. 2030 was 5,400. He's cheaper this week than he was then. Uh, you know, it's just, I don't know what they're doing with the Todd, with the Todd father pricing. Um, Speaker 2 00:43:45 Well it's just like, because you have to consider like what Michael McDowell's doing. Cause that's, it's the same equipment and McDowell obviously has far more experience and is more likely to rip off the better results. But if we're gonna give attention to McDowell at 65 with his top tens and we have to give some love to Todd Gill and he only has two top tens on the ear and he granted one of them was last week where he finished fourth. Uh, Speaker 3 00:44:10 Yeah. But he also started nights. So it's not like, it's not like he wasn't up there. Like the whole, it's not like he started 30th and 27 guys wrecked out and he just benefited like, yeah. I, I don't know. I feel like the below seven K is gonna be where the slates are won and lost. Speaker 2 00:44:35 Yeah. And it all depends on where everyone practices and qualifies as well. Speaker 3 00:44:40 Right. Obviously there's gonna be, there could wind up being some chalk plays down here. If there's somebody spits the bit and qualifying and gives you all sorts of PD, then you know, we're, you know, looking to chalk down here, especially to go get, I don't even think you need like two high priced guys. I think it's a pretty interesting slate. Speaker 2 00:45:03 Well, how many laps are there for this race? Speaker 3 00:45:05 There are 200 laps. Speaker 2 00:45:07 So that's a max of 140 dominators. I mean I'm, most of my bills are probably gonna be spending up for a couple dominators. Speaker 3 00:45:18 Yeah. I wouldn't expect go ahead too many cautions. I mean, I know it's a new tire, but I think we're far enough into the year that people know not to put the PSI too far down and blow tires and tire wear. Isn't a massive concern here. Right. Um, and we haven't really seen a tire fall off in the last few races. Um, so I think they're getting better about that too. So I, I don't know. Normally Michigan is a relatively clean race it's usually about who has the most pure speed for the long run. Um, so I think this is a pretty interesting pricing slate for, because there's, there's multiple places to go at each thousand dollars increment. And that makes it pretty interesting to build from, Speaker 2 00:46:06 Yeah. I have to familiarize myself with the sandal pricing this week cuz uh, I did the examples last week and uh, it was my first time even logging on pal I'd wanna say in probably three months. Speaker 3 00:46:19 Yeah. I still get emails every time I log onto PIL cuz their security is nuts, but Speaker 2 00:46:23 <laugh> Speaker 3 00:46:24 Um, yeah, I mean Vandal pricing is kind of a free for all. Cuz you can generally fit like four dudes over 10,000 without an issue because there, I mean you can fit basically every, if you average 10,000 a dude, you can fit the lineup. So there's, Speaker 2 00:46:41 It's always, so like you can last week when I was building lineups for the examples, like it just seemed, it was just easy and granted the race went to crap and like neither none of the lineups like cashed, but I almost felt better leaving money on the table then trying to spend every dollar that pal allows you. Speaker 3 00:46:59 Right. Because you're like, well I really like like, um, I don't know. Let's just say Harrison Burton or, or Ty Dylan, for example, Ty Dylan's always in like the $4,000 range on pal. Yeah. Your average driver salary on fan is 10,000. So if you play Ty Dillon, you can get two dudes that are like 13,000 without any issue. I mean, hell if you play a $7,000, probably Eric Jones, you can get two $13,000 dudes. Like the pricing on pal is a little ridiculous in my opinion, but it has been since I came out with the sport. And so yeah, I'm with you, it's all about more. So what can you leave on the table and feel good about on pal than trying to spend every last, every last dime and pack it full of the bigger name dudes, Speaker 2 00:47:57 Uh, any drivers or strategies that we missed. I feel like that was kind of a good summary of everything. I mean, granted, everything's gonna change tomorrow when we find out where everyone's starting. Speaker 3 00:48:06 Yeah. I would say, so you're gonna want, you're gonna wanna lapse lead dominator usually at Michigan, it's one guy that leads a good chunk of the lap and then everybody else kind of follows in behind him. Um, if you're looking back at data, I would not look back at the last couple of Michigan trips because they were double headers and they did the inversion. So it's gonna throw off average finishes and who got to lead lap and who didn't and all that good stuff. Um, but typically speaking, it's usually a clean race, not a ton of cautions at Michigan. Um, so yeah, it's kind of your standard intermediate strategy where we're gonna kind of go with one dominator and then we're gonna go with guys that can finish relatively well as for the passing. I don't really know how well the passing is gonna work here. Speaker 3 00:48:59 Like we've seen passing be great at most of the intermediates, but Michigan can be a different animal when that, you know, compared to other intermediates, usually speaking. So we'll see, it might be, it might be a race in which you get like three or four or five cars just run away from everybody else. Um, but that happens sometimes. Sometimes students show up with the best papers and they, they just dominate everybody else. Right. Like we, we see it in every other form of sports. Um, so yeah, that's kind of the strategy I would, I would. Speaker 2 00:49:38 All right. Well, good stuff is always meant. Thank you for your time. Best luck to you and best of luck to the foundation at Michigan.

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