August 12, 2022


NASCAR DFS Podcast: Federated Auto Parts 400

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Federated Auto Parts 400
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Federated Auto Parts 400

Aug 12 2022 | 00:52:42


Show Notes

Following Kevin Harvick's win at Michigan and the Kurt Busch news, Dan Malin and Matt Selz give you all the latest NASCAR DFS news, strategy, and driver breakdowns you need to get set for Richmond. There's only three races left until the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and the Federated Auto Parts 400 will play a pivotal role in setting the field.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on. FA nation. Welcome back. Another episode of the fantasy alarm NASCAR D Fs podcast. I'm Dan Mailin joined by the Fs a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt sells Matt. We're coming off a very interesting, uh, Michigan race where, uh, I guess the biggest dominator chalk in Kyle Bush busted early. Uh, I didn't have a bad day. I didn't have a great day. I had one lineup that was in it in the Chrome horn, uh, in the last 20 laps that kept me from really losing a ton of money. Uh, kind of just a me kind of week for me, but I was, I did Michigan treat you? Speaker 3 00:00:57 Uh, it was, it was okay. Uh, I'm not sure. I expected there to be like a restrictor plate type big one, uh, that took out quite a lot of people. Um, so that, that wasn't great. Um, late race restarts were kind of interesting, uh, especially Bubba's comment about how Joey Lagano should get a big fat check from Ford, um, you know, for kind of holding him up. Not that, not that he said, Joey did anything wrong, just, Speaker 2 00:01:27 No, he didn't say that. Speaker 3 00:01:30 Just, uh, that basically Joey did what he had to do for the manufacturer kind of held up another guy from having a shot. Um, but yeah, I thought it was, I thought it was an interesting race har late look like he had a rocket ship under him. That car came alive. Um, not necessarily shocking. He'd won there three times in a row previously. So now it was four times in a row at Michigan for Harvick. It did break a streak though that like the last nine races in Michigan had not seen a new winner on the season. And so that broke the, you know, har winning broke the streak. Now there's 15 winners. So we've got a legit shot here at having too many winners to win your way into the playoffs. Speaker 2 00:02:20 It's crazy because like this week is definitely a week where Martin Tru Jr. Could go out win. Speaker 3 00:02:25 Yes. Or Blaney Speaker 2 00:02:27 We saw Blaney perform very well here. Um, there's still Daytona on the horizon and anybody could win that. That could be race. That bubble wins. It's uh, Speaker 3 00:02:37 The horses have been, have been a little unpredictable too this year. Yeah. Like Larson has not look good. The Hendrick cars generally haven't looked all that great at road courses aside from chase Elliot, Rhode America. Um, could we see Tyler Reddit go out and win a third straight road course at Watkins line? I don't know. Um, yeah, kind of, kind of nuts. Speaker 2 00:03:02 Uh, we do have a little bit of news to get to, uh, NASCAR silly season, still rolling. Uh, we're getting a clearer picture of the, uh, 2023 lineup. Noah Grason is officially getting the promotion from the number nine car and the Xfinity series with JRM and he is taking over Ty DI's seat in the 42 car for petty GMs. Uh, given that petty GMs is a two car team and they're gonna be going forward with Eric Jones and Noah Gregson. Do you think that this is a good, is this, this is probably an upgrade over Ty Dylan, correct? Speaker 3 00:03:35 I would presume. So I'd say so, um, Grayson's a more talented driver than Ty Dylan, for sure. Dylan is a guy who tends to probably take better care of his equipment than Noah Gregson. Um, definitely does not. Jack's Speaker 2 00:03:51 A wreckers baby. Speaker 3 00:03:52 Yeah, definitely doesn't have the personality that Gregson does, uh, for better or worse, whichever way you want to look at it. Um, so yeah, I would say that this is an upgrade for them. Um, it was kind of, Greg's only real, I mean that, or the eight, right. But the aid's not actually open until 20, 24 at this point. Right. Pending they buy Tyler Redick out in force force 2311 to make a move sooner. Um, but yeah, I mean, this was really the only known Chevy car to be open at this point, as far as I'm aware. So, you know, I, yeah, I think it's an upgrade. I thought it was very interesting that they announced it Sam's sponsorship, um, that they felt comfortable enough with him in the car to do it without a full time or at least mostly sold sponsorship package. Um, but yeah, so, but on that front, let's place some stuff out for a little, by the way, drew dollar put out a, a tweet with nine smiley faces on it. If you want to get cryptic and believe that he knows that he's going to the nine for JRM, I think that's a bad decision. Speaker 2 00:05:06 It would be a bad decision from a driver's standpoint, but he does have funding. Speaker 3 00:05:10 He does have funding, which is good, cuz he's gonna wreck a whole lot of money <laugh> and so that funding is gonna go for paying back the, uh, labor time for JRM staff. Um, so there's a couple of interesting possibilities that could be arising here. Uh, Kurt Bush is out this week again in case you hadn't heard, uh, he called this week the most frustrating because he felt very good mentally until he tried to get physically ready to go race and then it backtracked on him. Um, let's play this out and say that Kirk Bush decides that this is his last year that the concussion is just too much. He doesn't wanna risk it. Um, you know, he's got some other stuff he could wind up doing so Speaker 2 00:05:57 Pretty good in the booth. Speaker 3 00:05:59 He is pretty good in Speaker 2 00:06:00 The booth. I enjoy him in the booth. Speaker 3 00:06:01 So let's say for sake of argument that Kirk Bush steps aside, he had signed a multi-year deal with 2311, right? That leaves a Toyota open. Do we think one of two things happens either. Denny talks his boss and Ty Gibbs' grandfather into abandoning the development plan for Ty Gibbs and sticking Ty Gibbs in the 45 car, which he's already grown accustomed to at this point having basically a month in the cup series or option two tide, Gibb stays down in Xfinity. Kyle goes to drive for Denny and takes over his brother's pride or option three RCR goes is gonna be way too awkward for another year. We're gonna buy out Tyler Redick and Tyler Reddick moves into the 45 for 2023 of Speaker 2 00:07:00 All right. Uh, it's a lot of moving pieces. Speaker 3 00:07:04 Only one of those is gonna happen cuz we're not putting three drivers <laugh> in the 45. Obviously Speaker 2 00:07:10 I would say if, if the first option happens where they talk Gibbs or, or Denny talks, Joe Gibbs into letting tie GIBS say over the 45, I imagine it has to be some kind of a handshake deal where, you know, it's, it's just kind of like a starter ride for Gibbs. That's not gonna be his final landing spot. Like there's no way in hell Joe Gibbs does not want, he wants his grandson eventually taking over the 18 Speaker 3 00:07:38 That's how well is it the 18 or would it be the 11? Because sentimentally, the 11 is more sentimental number wise to Gibbs Speaker 2 00:07:48 Fair one of those two, Speaker 3 00:07:50 But it be a handshake deal that, that basically once Denny retires Gibbs Speaker 2 00:07:55 Gibbs, either Denny or once, once one of those like seats is freed up because I'm growing more and more optimistic by the day that Kyle Bush is just, is probably gonna end up back at JGR Speaker 3 00:08:07 Interesting. Speaker 2 00:08:08 Uh, cause there's I would, I would like see for the sake of drama, I would like to see a really big like bombshell drop where Kyle Bush somehow ends up at HR. And that's a huge boost to that team because really outside of, uh, Kevin har you can make an argument for chase Brisco. Like Eric Almar might come back on a part-time schedule, cold Custer has to go. They need to get good drivers in those cars. Speaker 3 00:08:37 Yes. Speaker 2 00:08:38 Um, so I mostly think that gives, I think the most likely scenario still like gives, stays in Xfinity for 2023. I still think he's probably too young for the cup series. And I'm saying this after he finished top 10 last week and scored his first opt in, in the cup series. Um, but I, I would be very, very surprised if he had a full-time cup ride next year. And he in, if that was the case, he'd already be a top 20, arguably a top 15 driver in the cup series. Yeah. I mean, we've knit in just a small sample size, like he does belong there, but I think I would be surprised if they deviated from this, this plan that they have to keep him in Xfinity for 2023. Speaker 3 00:09:25 I would be too. So I think if Kurt retires, I think the most likely option is that Tyler Reddit goes, okay, why don't you just buy me out and then go, you know, R here can call up somebody, um, another or can sell the can, can sell the, um, charter, maybe that's what happens the junior to buy charters from RCR and the money that they sell the charters for essentially pays for the buyout for redic to move to the 45 a year early. And then they can go to a three car team if they need to, but then there's no extra outlay for 2311 because they're not, they don't have to get a third car on the tractor. Speaker 2 00:10:16 Okay. Now my next question is how likely is it that RCR just willingly buys Tyler Redick out? He's got two wins this year and he's, he's arguably that best, that team's best chance to get a championship either this year or next year, because whoever steps in for Tyler Redick in the eight car, they're not gonna be nearly on his level in terms of just talent, Speaker 3 00:10:37 Right? Speaker 2 00:10:38 So Speaker 3 00:10:38 This is RCR pretty slim. Speaker 2 00:10:40 This is RCRs best chance to get a championship either this year or next year. And, and so even in this situation where we think that they could buy Tyler at out, I'm like, I, I understand he's gone for 20, 24, but if you're championship hunting, he's your best chance. Speaker 3 00:10:56 Yeah. I mean, is there anybody besides Noah capable of coming up from the Xfinity series right now? Speaker 2 00:11:05 Uh, Speaker 3 00:11:06 Aside from Ty, Speaker 2 00:11:08 Maybe Algar is. Speaker 3 00:11:10 Yeah, but dad's not, that's a drop in Speaker 2 00:11:13 That's I, it's not, you're Speaker 3 00:11:14 Getting older and you're losing talent. Speaker 2 00:11:17 Um, uh, no, like gifts is the biggest name right now. Speaker 3 00:11:26 Right? So if 2311 can't convince Joe Gibbs to allow Ty to come race for Michael Jordan and they don't convince RCR to buy out Reddick and Kurt says I've had enough, then there's an opening. We didn't foresee coming. Speaker 2 00:11:52 <laugh> I love how this all dependent on Kurt's decision. Cause I think he still wants to race. I think he just, I mean, it Speaker 3 00:11:57 Is, he's got a multi-year deal. So he's got a seat for next year. If he wants to come back, he's already got a deal. It's just a matter of does he at whatever he is 42 years old, want to give it a go knowing that another hard hit forces, a bigger concussion? Speaker 2 00:12:19 I think once he can get his health. Right. I think it's, it's a better time for him to answer that question. Um, I mean, he's had a good year. He's gotta win. He's qualified for the playoffs. Like, yeah. Speaker 3 00:12:31 So on that note though, let's, let's turn our attention to Richmond this week. Um, you know, it, it's kind of known as the action track though. It's been lacking in action for most of the last decade. Well, Speaker 2 00:12:43 The spring race was pretty good. Speaker 3 00:12:44 The spring race was, but that's like one in 10 races. Are we getting get for that? Speaker 2 00:12:49 I mean, I think the big concern about this car on short flat tracks, uh, coming into Richmond was like Richmond was for the most part, a pretty boring track, uh, kind of tough to pass. Uh, you get multiple drivers following many laps down, uh, but in the spring race we saw, you know, four different drivers lead at least 60 laps. We saw plenty of drivers lead, uh, log double digit, fastest laps. And, and I'll let you spill the beans on the one. That's probably the most surprising, Speaker 3 00:13:21 Oh, we overall Speaker 2 00:13:22 Go ahead. <laugh> Speaker 3 00:13:24 We wanna do that now or we want to go until we're talking about budget plays. Speaker 2 00:13:27 I don't see why we would wait until budget plays because I'm not gonna get a lot of exposure to 'em this week. Speaker 3 00:13:34 Yeah. Okay. So Michael McDowell in the spring race put together one of the more ridiculous outlines you're gonna see. Um, he started 24th. That's not the ridiculous part. He finished 30th. Okay. A lot of people start in the mid twenties and finished 30th five. He only got as high as 20. He also finished five laps down. Yeah. But in that time he managed to put up 31 fastest laps tied in with William Byron and only three behind true act for the race Speaker 2 00:14:05 Lead. It's one of life's greatest mysteries. Speaker 3 00:14:08 How in the world did Mike did, did Michael McDowell put up 31 fastest laps while running basically between 24th and 30th, the entire, his average running position was 30th. So like he was 20th for a blip of a second. And then he started falling backwards despite having a rocket ship to put up 31 fastest lap. Speaker 2 00:14:31 I wonder if he was just way off the cycle and pitch strategy of everybody else that at some point in the race, Speaker 3 00:14:38 He had way when tires Speaker 2 00:14:40 And when he just had way fresher tires over, over the field. And he was just clicking off the fastest laps, multiple laps down Speaker 3 00:14:46 It's entirely possible. That's really the only thing that makes any sense. Um, in, in my opinion, to give you an idea in the other races combined this year, Michael McDowell has 36 total fastest laps. He hasn't had more than nine in any other race <laugh>. So that would be my assumption is that he was so far back, they were just doing home run pit calls and he had very fresh tires when everybody else didn't. That would be my only, my only thought, Speaker 2 00:15:19 All right, uh, this weekend's schedule is it's nice. It's compact. Uh, I actually really like it. I'm not gonna be hustling to get the playbook out early on Saturday, even though it'll probably still be up Saturday morning with updates following after practice and qualifying. But, uh, the camping world truck series has practice in qualifying, starting at 3:00 PM. Eastern time. The cup series will follow at 5 0 5 with their practice in qualifying truck series. Uh, the worldwide express two 50, uh, scheduled for a green flag shortly after 8:00 PM. Um, hard to believe there's only six races left for the trucks this year and it's August. Speaker 3 00:15:59 Um, yeah, that's pretty nuts cuz they end their championships the same weekend as everybody else's, which is yeah, they have the first weekend in November. So they Speaker 2 00:16:07 Have one race in August, which is this race. They have two in September, two in October and then the championship race in November. Speaker 3 00:16:14 That's a whole lot of off time. Speaker 2 00:16:16 I got a lot of off time coming up. Um, but then the cup series races 3:00 PM Sunday, uh, yeah, pretty basic week. I do like these letter weeks. Uh, I, I, I cherish the weekends where I like to worry about one playbook. Speaker 3 00:16:31 Yeah. I do kind of miss the Saturday night cup race at, at Richmond, like Saturday under the lights for the cup race at Richmond is kind of nice, um, a little bummed. They got rid of it. Um, I kind of felt like the passing or the track was kind of better at nighttime. Um, but you know, TV and money and whatever dictates it's a Sunday afternoon race. So, um, you know, it is what it is. It'll be a 400 lap race for the cup series 300 miles around that 0.75 mile, uh, flat kind of D shaped BLE, um, you know, short track that we've all come to, come to love as, as it were. Speaker 2 00:17:17 Well, I guess we, uh, can just dive it in and start talking about Joe Gibb's racing and the Toyotas. Uh, this is a track that they historically dominate at. We saw Denny win here back in the spring. Uh, Kyle Bush only led one lap at and had 24 fastest lap smart choice. Junior led 80 laps with 34 fastest laps. Uh, Christopher Bell led 63 laps with 19 fastest laps. And these are all Joe Gibbs, raising drivers. They got the win, they got plenty of laps led plenty of fastest laps. Like they show up with the right setups for these short flag tracks. And I don't think we should expect any different this weekend and especially in a win. And it's a, what pretty much a must wind scenario for our insurer junior. Speaker 3 00:18:01 Yes. At this point. Yeah. Cuz I don't, I mean, yes, he's got the road course coming up, which obviously he's been historically pretty good at road courses though. Not so much this year cuz JGR has absolutely bombed the setup for every other road course that we've seen so far. Um, so yeah, I would look my out of those guys. I'm still not sold on Denny. Yes, he wanted, I understand. But he led like five laps and it was basically cuz he caught somebody on a restart. Um, like I, I just have a hard time putting my finger on, on Hamlin as to when he's going to have speed and when he's not gonna have speed. Um, so if I'm going with anybody from JGR working on with true X, um, and then probably bell would be my number two. Speaker 2 00:18:58 Is that just based on pricing or Speaker 3 00:19:02 Um, yeah, I mean he's certainly cheap, cheaper, um, at 9,600, he's almost two grand less list and Kyle Bush, um, he's like 1500 less than Denny and a thousand less than true X, but it also has to do with the fact that he had speed here earlier the year he won New Hampshire, which is a comparable track. Um, I don't remember exactly what he did at Phoenix. I can go back and, and check. He started well, but didn't finish very well there. So, you know, there is that, but the, the Toyotas have kind of been building in speed of late, but there's also the fact that Christopher Bell has been on kind of a heater in the second half of the season. Like they have figured something out with that team they've consistently had good speed. Double Speaker 2 00:20:02 As a laps led in four straight races. Speaker 3 00:20:05 Yeah. He put up, I mean, even though he finished 26 last weekend, he had 31 laps led in 31 fastest laps. Yeah. Completely different track setup again, new Hampshire's comparable Speaker 2 00:20:15 Didn't he gets into some just kinda like bad luck wreck last week with chest when chest was a lap down, but trying to get around him. Speaker 3 00:20:22 Yeah. Yeah. That sucks. So, and New Hampshire, um, Nashville's a little comparable, not totally, but a little bit. He had okay. Speed there. Um, so yeah, I would, I would say, look, Kyle has been kind of all over the place. The weeks you bet on him. He's trying out the weeks you don't is when he shows up and, and runs well. Um, Denny, I can't put my finger on it and Tru X a it's desperation B he's been very, very good and has led a bunch of laps in these flatter tracks. Like New Hampshire led 172 laps at New Hampshire led 82 laps at, um, Nashville. He led, uh, 80 at Richmond earlier in the year. So, you know, I'm kind of on those two guys from JGI. Speaker 2 00:21:16 All right. Uh, I guess we'll scroll on down. Uh, I don't know. Does chase Elliot excite you very much at 10,800? Speaker 3 00:21:22 No, Speaker 2 00:21:23 Really? Is it just how Hendrick has looked on this style of track this year? Speaker 3 00:21:30 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:21:30 Cause Byron got a bunch of dominator points here earlier in the year and then he went in won Martinsville and then he kind of fell off the face of the earth. Speaker 3 00:21:39 Yeah. I mean there is, there is that wanted chase dude. Chase only had a Soso race here. Like he was ten five last time they were here, he put up 34 points, started 15 finished 14th, had eight fastest laps. Mm-hmm <affirmative> you need a whole heck of a lot more from chase Elliot at that price tag. Um, Kyle Larson, like the whole Hendrick gang, just, I don't know. I feel like they all know they're gonna make the playoffs and they're kind of content to just, they're Speaker 2 00:22:12 Just coasting. Speaker 3 00:22:13 They're just kind of coasting and then we'll see like them kind of turn it on. Um, a little bit now Larson was able to pass here in the, in the spring race started 21st, fifth, um, at ten two and he's ten three this week. So there's that? I don't know. What is your feeling Hend? Like how are you ranking Hendrick this week? Speaker 2 00:22:38 Uh, my thoughts on Hendrick are obviously I'm not as confident in them as I with JGR because I have more faith in JG R like just showing up with the right setup, right. For Hendrick and a lot of the other teams it's going to be, what did they look like in practice and, and how well they qualify. And even then, I don't know how committed I'm gonna be. Um, you know, we, we finally got a good week out of Alex Bowman last week, but so what he started 30th and he was just the ultimate chalk, um, Speaker 3 00:23:10 Right. He was a free square. Speaker 2 00:23:11 Yeah. Um, Byron had a pretty good race, but it's like, you know, he started 20th, finished 12th, didn't have a single lap led or fastest lap. Um, so I really just want to see what they can offer. Um, I guess I'm kind of on board where it's just like, I'm, I'm not crazy about this team. I'd rather take a look at, you know, the playoff picture and see who needs a win, which is true X Blaney and a handful of other drivers. And then I'm trying to see, like, you know, who's just gonna be racing for track position and points, um, because you are a little accurate where it just seems like all these Hendrick guys could just be waiting for the playoffs to start. Um, I'm not sure if you have any other thoughts on that, but otherwise I was just gonna pivot right. To where I'm Blay. Speaker 3 00:24:00 Yeah. I mean, I don't really know what to do with, with Byron at this point. I mean, we saw him flat out dominate this race and then Martinsville and that speed has just not been there. Speaker 2 00:24:14 He only has one top 10 since Martinsville. Speaker 3 00:24:17 Yeah. And he's not top, like he's had 41 labs led and that was in Atlanta. Other than that, nothing better than like 25 laps led in any given race. So I don't know I'm with you. It's gonna come down to what we have to, you know, what they're showing on the track when they're on the track. Um, man, he's like a habit I can't kick. Speaker 2 00:24:49 Yeah. But he's been good on the style of track this year. Speaker 3 00:24:51 He has been, he has been, and it's not like he was bad at Michigan. He finished fifth. Um, uh, you know, certainly got back on the right side of the, uh, scoring column there. Speaker 2 00:25:04 He wasn't great at New Hampshire, but, uh, Phoenix, he led over a hundred laps. Yeah. Uh, Richmond in the spring led over a hundred laps, grabbed a top five with 31 fastest laps at Martinsville. Um, you know, finished fourth at gateway with 38 fastest laps in 12 laps led. So I mean 9,900, like I imagine there will be decent amount of ownership on blaming, um, needs. The win has had solid runs on the style of track. I'd be surprised if that team just put up a dud and just farted their way outta this race. Speaker 3 00:25:43 I, I tend to agree with that. Um, as first teammates I'm treating Joey Lano, like Denny Hamman, I can't figure that guy out. Speaker 2 00:25:53 <laugh> yeah. That's kind of fair. I, he did win gateway didn't we didn't he? Speaker 3 00:25:59 Yeah, but he didn't really like, did he really dominate gateway? Not really 20 fast. His laps 22 laps led Speaker 2 00:26:07 Basically had track position at the end. Speaker 3 00:26:09 Yeah. Yeah. Track position. He held it well, um, he did win Darlington, but that's not really comparable. Um, I don't know, like Lagano, didn't exactly run very well here early in the season. He ran okay. At Phoenix. Like, and I have no idea what to do with Austin Crick right Speaker 2 00:26:35 Now. Um, Speaker 3 00:26:39 Like I know, I know you can't really count Michigan against him. Right. Cuz like basically had the field wrecked outta that race. Speaker 2 00:26:46 The weird what's so hard to gauge with Crick though, is that he won the Daytona 500 and then he went on a very prolonged, like Daytona hangover Speaker 3 00:26:57 Right. Speaker 2 00:26:57 Where he was having just a ton of bad results. Speaker 3 00:27:01 He got worse. He got worse finishes in each of the next four races. Speaker 2 00:27:06 Yeah. He really Speaker 3 00:27:06 Didn't turn it around 24 32 until like Koda. Speaker 2 00:27:12 Yeah. I mean he really, he had a pretty solid month of June. Um, last week. I'm kind of with you. That was, I don't know that big one just kind of Speaker 3 00:27:23 Sucked also. It's Michigan. You can't really like Michigan and Richmond are completely, you're not com NASCAR. So yeah. I don't know. I mean, I'm with you. He had a very good June into early July. Yeah. But now he's had, since like since New Hampshire he's had one top 10 and it was at the crazy Brickyard, which we basically expected him to do well at anyway. Uh, I don't know if I'm going Penske, it's gonna be Blay. And then the other two, I'm gonna have to see what they look like. Speaker 2 00:28:03 I think the other tough thing about Crick two is that he could go out and just qualify. Well, I think, uh, I mean dating back to the Coke, 600 even Kansas before the all star race, he got a handful of starting positions inside the top six. Yeah. And that right there, um, you know, he doesn't scream as the kind of guy that can at this stage in his career still just doesn't let or jump off the page as the kind of guy that can, uh, like dominate race necessarily. Right. Um, however, I'll say that if he somehow lands on the pole, then I'm very interested. Or even if he's on the front row, because you know, we've seen the front row at Richmond have DFS success and we've seen the pole sitter make it into the optimal lineup. Almost seven straight races. Speaker 3 00:28:55 Yeah. I was actually just gonna go there. Yeah. I think it's been six or seven straight races this year, regardless of layout like legit six or seven of the last six or seven races in which the poll sitter has been in the optimal lineup. So, so there is that. And like we've said before on short tracks, if you have track position, it can be very tough to pass on short tracks. Um, we gotta, I don't know what, what are we doing with chestain and forests? Speaker 2 00:29:31 Uh, I'm still playing. Chestain just cuz I know that the car is, is pretty much showing up fast, wherever they go. Um, I understand he hasn't really paid off for DFS purposes the last few weeks. Um, if he, especially with Pocono, very chaotic road course race at Indy. Um, and then last week's debacle. Um, it was ugly, but that car had speed last week and it was fast and it was running up front until he and Suz pitted. And then there was almost an immediate caution and they were trying to make the lap up, but then he got into bell, uh, all in all. I'm still gonna play Chasta Squires. It's probably gonna depend on where he starts, but I'll, I'll be mixing in some shares of him too, just cause I know that car will likely have speed as well. Um, Speaker 3 00:30:15 Yeah. As long as the tire doesn't go down, Speaker 2 00:30:18 I do think that Chasta is putting himself in a spot, given the most recent results where we could start seeing a little bit of leverage with him, not a ton because if he keeps qualifying outside the top 15, which he's done in four straight races, there are just gonna be plenty of people that still flock to him. But I, I, they show up with speed on it. Doesn't matter. The style of track like those, those cars are fast. Speaker 3 00:30:41 Yeah. I mean where I started 19 finished ninth at New Hampshire, um, he had a pretty good run at let's keep going here. We got grow all the way back to the Toyota owners, 400 and a solid run at Richmond earlier in the year. He was a lot cheaper than, than he is now. Um, like Martinsville has never been his track, so I'm not really gonna hold that against him. Really. Um, Phoenix, good run started 23rd finished ninth. So yeah, I'm with you. It's gonna depend on where he score. Um, qualifies for me, I'm starting to get a little tired of the, uh, Ross. Chestain one trick pony. I've got speed. And as long as I, as long as I don't hit anything, which turns out to be really hard for him to do, then I'll have a good day. But if something gets in my way, I'm gonna run over it and then I'm gonna wreck your day and get another set. Speaker 3 00:31:52 Like there's no way he makes it through the playoffs. Literally no way. There's like 17 drivers that want to take pot shots at him when the playoffs start, um, you know, Denny and chase are at the top of that list, but now you've got Christopher Bell is on the list. Pretty sure Kyle's Kyle Bush is gonna do it just because it's just because he likes playing that role. Um, <laugh>, you've got like a bunch of other dudes you're lining up to take shots at him. So I'm getting a little tired of his Shick is, is kind of what I'm saying. Speaker 2 00:32:29 Uh, any love for Kevin hark, Tyler Reddick, the last two winners in the cup series, uh, Harvey gets a prize bump to 9,100, uh, Tyler Reddick, uh, price dip, actually he was 10,000 for the brick year or the road course race of Indy. He was 9,700 last week and he is down to 8,800. Speaker 3 00:32:50 Yeah, still 600 bucks. More than the last time they were at Richmond, which is, he was 8,200. He started 16 finished 12th with 11 fastest laps in that race. So almost five X there with 40 points. Um, I don't know, uh, this isn't necessarily his favorite style of track. Nope. He did run well at Phoenix. Um, the problem is the Highline at Richmond doesn't necessarily come in all that well, which is what he really wants to have happen. Um, so I mean I'm okay with it. I think it's interesting to see where they'll come out in, in ownership, given the price points. Um, I mean Kevin hark was fast at Richmond last time. He's shown really good speed in like six straight races now. Um, so I think he's gonna be a little bit more in Vogue than Tyler Reddick will, even though REDX cheaper. Um, just because like Harvard just keeps, just keeps locking in these top tens for you. Doesn't really matter where he starts. He's gonna get you fast laps. He's gonna get you maybe some top, uh, you know, some lap lead, but he had speed at, at Richmond earlier in the year. He had speed at Phoenix earlier in the year. Clearly had speed at New Hampshire. Um, arguably could have won that race. Um, so yeah, I, I think I'm probably leaning a little more Kevin hark than Tyler Redick, but the leverage is probably higher on Redick side. Speaker 2 00:34:33 Uh, bubble Wallace was not good on these flatter tracks earlier in the year. However, he's on one of the hottest streaks of his career, four straight top 10 finishes, three of those in the top five, including a runner up last week at Michigan, uh, he's priced up to $8,000 right now though. And this is not a super Speedway. This is a track that he just historically does not perform all that well at. But again, he's in a Toyota, there's only six of them in the field. And you know, if this is like a satellite or affiliate of Joe Gibb's racing, we have to imagine that the Toyotas will show up with the right setup and we'll get to the other Toyota after Bubba. But do you feel okay with Bubba going into this race? Cause I'm I understand he's on a hell of a run, but I'm still a little nervous about playing him at this track because if you lose track position here, if you lose a lap or two, it's really difficult to make it up. Speaker 3 00:35:25 Agreed, agreed. He hasn't been hurt by his pick crew since they swapped. Speaker 2 00:35:30 Yeah, Speaker 3 00:35:32 But Speaker 2 00:35:33 I don't think bell can complain about it either. Speaker 3 00:35:35 No, but also the tracks that they've raced on since they swapped, there was not very much penalty for a pit issue. Right. It was it tough to go a lap down with everything except for, I guess, New Hampshire, um, I'm kind of with you, right? Like I want to get some exposure to him cuz he's on a hot streak and until he doesn't have the, also not to mention that if he wins he's in the playoffs too, right? Like he's kind of fighting for a playoff spot at this point as well. Um, but is not a track that's been historically good for him. I get that this is the best equipment he's been in. But even earlier in the year in the same equipment, it was not a great run at Richmond. Um, you wanna turn your attention to the last Toyota in the field? A guy we kind of touched on with some, some scenarios earlier, Speaker 2 00:36:34 Um, go for it. Ty Gibbs, Speaker 3 00:36:36 Ty Gibbs, man, I look, he's gonna be popular again this week cuz people just wanna play tide Gibbs. They just want to get exposure to him. He's coming off a top 10. He's done well at this track and Xfinity like it's Kurt did well in his, you know, did well earlier this year in this car. Um, so I mean I get it. People are gonna want to get exposure to 'em but I, I don't know, man, I don't know what the, Speaker 2 00:37:14 I expressed my opinion before the podcast. And I understand it's before practice and qualifying, but I do have my concerns this week just in terms of how I think the, the race narrative could play out because this is a track short, flat tracks where drivers can lose multiple laps. It wouldn't surprise me if he got a little bullied by non Toyota drivers, Fords, Chevys. Wouldn't be surprised if he somehow, if he maybe put the car on the wall, fell a couple laps down. Um, and, and my opinion could change if he's fast and qualifies. Well, because if he qualifies, well, I have more faith in him holding the position. Whereas if he qualifies poorly, a lot of people are gonna jump on the PD, but I'm, I still might not be entirely sold because while the PD is there and like the opportunity, Speaker 3 00:38:05 Yeah. He's gotta fight his way through the field. He's Speaker 2 00:38:07 Gotta fight his way through a field that Speaker 3 00:38:09 Attracted it's gonna be a fight, Speaker 2 00:38:10 The pass. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:38:12 Um, yeah. And that remind yeah. You and I were talking about this before the pod that reminds me, we brought up Justin Hailey at the clash who had speed. And obviously that's a far shorter track than this one. That's a quarter of a mile track. Right. But Justin Haley cup rookie had speed was up with the big boys for the first time and got flat bullied in that, in that just got shoved around like a tag team, um, match like chase and Denny did to Chastain at gateway. Like I could see that I could see that happening if he starts up in the front of the field where he is, or he's got at least one teammate that he can pair up with to try to make it through the field, he becomes a lot more attractive. But if it's just him on an island trying to work his way up, I'm not sure. Speaker 2 00:39:07 Yeah. And I don't really wanna like take away anything that he's done so far. He's been, he's been very impressive. Yeah. Like I understand like he was scored from 10th at Pono, which was stupid because he started at the rear as for the driver change, but finished top 20 in every single race, got his first career, top 10 he's he's so talented. And we were talking about him at the beginning of the podcast about where he could end up next year. He's, he's very, very good. He's gonna be in the cup series full-time in two years. And I guess I shouldn't be that surprised that you know, 40 to one winner this week. And he is like, uh, currently on DK sports book he's plus six 50 for a top five. I mean not terrible odds and he's most certainly could do it, but at the same time, I just, I want to hit that right week when he does bust in a race because 7,600 is still a price tag that people will pay for Thai gives because this is a value play for all intents and purposes. But this is one that's gaining traction. Speaker 2 00:40:15 And the popularity I feel last week was the week you wanted to be heavy on Gibbs. And I think this week, if I'm just going, looking at it from an ownership perspective, I think I may be a little bit underweight in the field and we'll see what happens. I'm only playing the Chrome horn nowadays, just cuz I've I stopped playing the 50, $24 single entry contest just cuz the variance is here has been a little bit of a pain in the ass, but if I'm only doing 20 lineups, I, as it stands right now, I'm not that committed to Gibbs, uh, for the moment. Speaker 3 00:40:48 Yeah. Speaking of variance there's been 50 Speaker 2 00:40:51 Did to death right there. <laugh> Speaker 3 00:40:53 Um, no it was, it was a great, it was a great, uh, breakdown. I was just saying, speaking of variance, I read a stat this week that said there was 50, there's been 55% more DNFs in the cup series this year than last year. So that's a huge jump. We almost never see jumps anywhere close to that high. Um, so yeah, I mean, you know, protecting your bankroll at this point is crucial as we go further down, I look, there's not a whole lot of dudes between like, let's say 7,200 and like the rest that I'm all that excited about. <laugh> um, maybe Austin, Dylan, cuz he kind of has a knack for showing up on tracks that you don't necessarily expect him to show up on mm-hmm <affirmative> um, and he was decent at New Hampshire. He was solid at, um, Nashville. If you want to go back to, um, the spring race here, he got a, he got a top 10 here at Richmond in the spring. Um, for Phoenix, it was an okay race. Not great. So I'm okay. Going with Austin, Dylan, 7,200 bucks, um, didn't Klowski have a ridiculously eventful Richmond race in the spring. Speaker 2 00:42:26 I'm sure he did. I'm sure I was overweight on him. I'm sure he did terrible Speaker 3 00:42:31 Actually 13th, but like I Speaker 2 00:42:32 Third, 19th and finish. Speaker 3 00:42:34 I seem to remember him kind of yo-yoing for some reason and I don't know. Yeah, he got all the way back to 27th at one point finished 13th. His average run position was 13th. So it was a pretty, it was a pretty decent, pretty decent run there. Um, and look, you can't deny the speed that's been showing from these RFK cars over the last several races. Klowski has five straight top twenties if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. Five straight top twenties. Um, only one of those is the top 10, but that was at New Hampshire. So I don't know, man. It's pretty hard to get excited about like Amarillo Busher Stanhouse um, McDowell's got the weirdest stat line in quite a while at the spring race here. <laugh> um, I don't know, Speaker 2 00:43:34 Surpris. He didn't mention your, your boy tie Dylan. Speaker 3 00:43:37 I mean he's quality. Right. But it's nothing to get excited about. He Speaker 2 00:43:41 He's gonna qualify poorly. Speaker 3 00:43:43 I mean he is gonna qualify poorly and he is gonna finish like 24th and then you're good. But like, is that sexy? No, not really. Like it's dependable. It's <laugh> it's like a Ford. F-150 not like, like the Ford Mustang GT year, the Ford GT, right? Like <laugh>, he's good. Speaker 2 00:44:10 It is a little tough this week and, and I don't think we need to necessarily preview all these value plays cuz they will present themselves to us after practice and qualifying. Right. But it is unfortunate when you know that you have to go down there and hit the right ones because this is a race where you really do need multiple dominators. Given what we've seen from the next gen car on a variety of tracks. Um, even these short flats, you know, we're gonna see multiple dominators. That's that's just how it's gonna be. Um, and I mean even if you just plug in bell and true X right away, you're left with 29,800 on draft Kings for four remaining drivers sticking in the Brad Klowski Thai GIS, chase Brisco Cindrich Austin, Dylan, arguably Chris Busher. Ooh, Eric Amoro you're you're basically rounding out your lineup in that range. Or if you're trying to get up for maybe a more expensive PD play, let's assume Alex Bowman starts toward the rear. Once again, you know, you, you really do need to find the right value plays and it's hard to make an argument for many of them right now. Speaker 3 00:45:17 Right. Speaker 2 00:45:18 Cause I know we talked about MC McDowell and, but at the same time, I'm not thrilled with his results in this car, on this type of track. Speaker 3 00:45:29 Yeah. Uh, I would agree. I mean they'll present themselves, right? Somebody's gonna screw up qualifying almost guaranteed. Yeah. People do it every single week. Um, Speaker 2 00:45:41 And for those wondering what I mean by McDonald's results, he started 22nd finished 27th at Phoenix. Uh, previously Richmond, he finished 30th, which we alluded to with 31 fastest labs finished 25th at Martinsville. Uh, at gateway started 17th, finished 18th with 34 laps led. So it's like, that's probably the only good performance he's had. And it was saved because of 34 laps led uh, finished 28th at New Hampshire. So it's like, I just haven't liked what I've seen on this style of track. Speaker 3 00:46:13 Agreed, agreed on that one. Um, I don't know. Maybe Grason comes and balls out cuz he got himself a full-time ride. Good. He could Speaker 2 00:46:25 Don't think he will, but Speaker 3 00:46:27 He, he did not race this one in the spring. So he's kind of gonna be a NBE on, um, on this track in a cup car. So we'll see what happens, but maybe that scares some people off. Maybe it doesn't we'll see. Um, you know, we, we've talked about quite a few guys continuously this, this year between Harrison Burton, Todd Gill and you know, whatnot. But somebody down there is gonna, is gonna be in the optimal cuz they're gonna have to be. Um, and who knows, maybe it's Ricky Tenhouse I don't know. Didn't run all that well here in the spring. But prior to that, he'd actually been, he'd actually been pretty solid at Richmond. Speaker 2 00:47:21 I'm pretty intrigued by Elmar because we know this is a style at track that he can do well at. And we've talked about it numerous times, but it's mostly the price tag that I really like at 6,800 because he was 8,000 for Phoenix. He was 77, 5 for Martinsville. I mean he went backwards and, and most of these races just because he was starting so high, but I mean he kind of top five at gateway. And so I think, I think draft games is mostly sleeping on this guy's price tag because the results, he has three finishes outside the top 30 in his last four races. So the results have been bad, but this is a style of track he can thrive at and he's way too damn cheap. Speaker 3 00:48:05 I would look, I'll take shots on him in GPP Speaker 2 00:48:09 Because you have to assume he is also gonna qualify. Well, Speaker 3 00:48:12 I mean he qualified 10th there in the spring, Speaker 2 00:48:14 You know, PD from wherever he starts. Speaker 3 00:48:17 Yeah. Yeah. I mean he qualified 10th there in the spring. He did finish 21st. So that's, that's not great, but he does have a decent history here. Um, the St house prior to the last two Richmond races finished 17th, 18th, 16th, 16th, and 13th at Richmond. So that's, you know, and he, and he moved up in all, but one of those to finish there, so that's intriguing not saying it's great, but again, anybody that's down here, we're basically gonna go with like a staple of two dudes for cash down in this range. It's basically gonna be Ty. Dylan is one of them <laugh> um, and then you could just take a guess on the other guy, but for GVS, you're gonna need somebody like a ENT house or an Elmar or Klowski to, um, you know, finish off a lineup or get you a hit somewhere that you weren't expecting. Cause yeah, I har Blay true X. It gives me 6,800 bucks for the last three spots on average I go be, Speaker 2 00:49:41 I mean, if you take Elmar, you still have like 6,800 for the last two drivers. Speaker 3 00:49:46 Yeah. So that's kind where we're looking at this week. Folks is you gonna get, you gotta get interesting with your builds. Like Austin, Dylan put him in there St. House and 6,800. Hey look, guess who I line up with Eric Merla <laugh> Harvard Blaney track Austin, Dylan St. House and Elmar Speaker 2 00:50:12 Free line. Enter it, win big. Speaker 3 00:50:16 We'll Speaker 2 00:50:16 See. Uh, anything else you wanted to touch on? I, I know we're both kind of fading. It's kind of late, uh, long day for you. I'm assuming long game for me. Is there anything else you Speaker 3 00:50:26 Want battling some cold of some sort? I tested negative for COVID, but like, um, born down by like six o'clock, which is weird. Um, no, I would, I would say, you know, strategy wise, it's gonna be two dominators and then just kind of try to peg the guys that can finish the highest. Speaker 2 00:50:46 If you can make a three dominator lineup and you're comfortable with it, go with Speaker 3 00:50:50 It, go with it. I mean, we did see four guys lead more than 60 laps here in the spring. I'm kind of expecting a similar result. Uh, this weekend. I don't think anybody at this point in the season is simply going to run away and hide, uh, for a race here. Um, but yeah, I mean, other than that, you know, normal content schedule playbook will be out Saturday projections, Saturday sample line up Sunday, I'm on playbook, this cup series. Um, and if anybody has Sirius XM radio, you can catch me not only on with benty on alarm after hours on Friday night, but you can also catch me on NASCAR radio at one 30 Eastern on Sunday. Uh, I will be talking DF has a fantasy for the race about an hour and a half before green flag drops. Nice. Um, so yeah, so that should be, that should be a fun time. Um, but yeah, other than that, it's Richmond, we got three races left until the playoffs and then Ross Chastain will no longer exist in the cup series cuz he's gonna get run over in every playoff race. <laugh> it's gonna be amazing. He's gonna be smashed like a watermelon. Um, so yeah, well who knows if we get a 16th winner this weekend, all hell is gonna break loose in the next two races. Speaker 2 00:52:27 All right. Well man, thank you for your time. Best of luck to you this week and best of luck to the FA nation, Speaker 3 00:52:32 Best of luck, FA nation.

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