Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engines.
Speaker 1 00:00:05 Oh,
Speaker 2 00:00:21 What's going on? F Fa Nation, welcome back. The third to last NASCAR DFS podcast of the 2022 season. We are previewing the second race of the round of eight for the NASCAR Cup series playoffs. Joey Lagano got the win last week in Texas. Uh, I benefited greatly from that. I'm not sure how much DFS you played, Matt. I know it was, uh, your daughter's birthday. Uh, but I only played five lineups in the chrome horn, so I was 20 bucks, but turned it into 72 ish initially. But got a nice little stat correction that pushed me over 80 for a nice, like 400% roi. And I had Joey Lagano, uh, the race winner in three of my lineups. I was very fortunate that I avoided Kyle Larson, Bubble Wallace, the Christopher Bell debacle. I'm sure we'll talk about that. It's all anybody in the NASCAR community is talking about. But overall, Vegas was, was pretty good for me. I did play light, but Sunday was a pretty beneficial day between NFL and nascar. That's why I have no complaints. But, uh, what, I'm not sure how much you saw of Vegas. I'm sure you've seen the highlights, uh, but what'd you think?
Speaker 3 00:01:26 Um, yeah, I, I didn't see all that much of the race. I saw, you know, a little bit of it. Um, Saturday was my daughter's birthday party. And then Sunday, um, you know, some of my best friends moved to Omaha, which is about 40. You know, they're living about 30 minutes from me. So, uh, with the Chief's bills game happening, he grew up in Kansas City. Obviously I've been in the Midwest for like 17 years. So we got together to watch the Chiefs and Bill's game, which basically took me out of watching the, uh, the cup race. But I did see clips of Bubble Wallace and Larson and unfortunately Bell getting caught up in, in that. Um, and I have mixed thoughts about the, the suspension for Bubba. Um, I know Dale Jr. Said the precedent his points and that would matter more because they already swapped, um, you know, Bubba into the 45 to carry the, the points into the owner's championship and whatever. So the points would matter more to them than the actual race suspension. And Kyle Petty was completely on the other end of the spectrum with he shouldn't be racing again this year, uh, because the retaliation is one thing and then you shove a guy is another thing. And then the guy whose car you're in is now basically for all intents and purposes, retired because of the safety and you right rear to guy, um, into the wall and you took out
Speaker 2 00:03:01 And you're going about 180 miles an hour while
Speaker 3 00:03:03 Right. And you took out, uh,
Speaker 2 00:03:05 It's not like he did this at Morton's Bill,
Speaker 3 00:03:07 Who's also in the playoffs. Um, so I probably fall somewhere in between, um, a couple of race suspension probably would've been fitting, considering the fact that that's what they gave to, um, Kenzie because of the Kens magon Yeah. Situation several years ago. Which by the way happened at Martinsville, like you said. Um, so I don't know, probably about a two race suspension I think probably would've been correct. Um, but it's also just not a great look. Like you've gotta know that you're gonna get heat for it if you're Bubba, cuz everybody gives you heat even when you do things the right way. So
Speaker 2 00:03:55 Did Larson even make contact with him? I wasn't even sure. I wasn't sure if it was just one of those things where he just got close enough to him that it just threw Bubba off his line or something.
Speaker 3 00:04:04 I think it's the fact that he drove him up, you know, drove him out to the wall coming off the corner. Right. It's not the first time that Larson has done it. There's clips going around on Twitter of, you know, Larson doing that to people. But I don't know, it's kind of like the, um, the Lagano situation from earlier in the year with who was it, Byron or Bo? Who did, who did it? Uh, like Darlington, when Lagano just straight Dr.
Speaker 2 00:04:37 Oh Lagano drove Byron into the ball and into the wall and he could have easily just passed him. He clearly had the faster car
Speaker 3 00:04:43 Just
Speaker 2 00:04:44 Be just removed, wiring
Speaker 3 00:04:45 Outta the way high off of the turn. Yeah. Retaliated. And that's basically the same thing here except Bubba added, uh, the whole shoving deal. So, um, yeah, my daughter was, so one of my daughters, her favorite driver is Bubba Wallace. So she was not terribly happy. She didn't get to see him race on Sunday because she was like, Well he shouldn't show people. Isn't that very nice
Speaker 2 00:05:14 <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:05:15 Like very good sweetheart,
Speaker 2 00:05:17 <laugh>, uh, I don't know. I thought they could have come down really hard on him and, and for what it's worth, I guess you could call people could say that we're Bubba Apologi, um, been very excited and very supportive of his tenure at 23 x i with a pair of wins this year. He's been awesome. There have been great strides in just watching him as a driver, but he, he just took so many steps backwards just with this move cuz you know, it's, we've seen guys go into the right rear corner panel before and it's, it's just incredibly dangerous when you're going 180 miles an hour. And it, it just looked incredibly intentional. I don't really care that, you know, he said his car broke in his, uh, in his interview, but like no driver is just gonna openly admit that they purposely wrecked a guy, uh, the same.
Speaker 3 00:06:09 Yeah, that's not true. Actually. The, the last guy to wreck, uh, who the heck wrecked somebody intentionally a few weeks ago and then basically said, Yeah, I did it intentionally. Well, not, not really, but sort of like in the, in the interviews it was, was it Byron? It might have been Byron,
Speaker 2 00:06:32 I can't remember
Speaker 3 00:06:34 <laugh>, who basically admitted that they wrecked the guy but didn't.
Speaker 2 00:06:37 But like, so I didn't really have an issue with his interview, but it's like you, you can't just every, pretty much all the actions that happened, like the wreck, the pushing and the shoving on a live track in the, in the infield, uh, and then the Halfass apology where he, he apologized for the confrontation afterward, but not for actually like the actual wreck. Uh, I honestly thought that I didn't even consider points and I thought Dale's point was pretty spot on that would've really, uh, hit the team at, uh, for Bubba's actions. But I thought like a multiple race suspension or sitting in for their year and then penalizing the team with points, cuz that ultimately does cost them money. I thought if you to really set a president for that crap to not happen on a mile and a half again, or a larger track where they are going faster, I would've had no problem if they had come down much harder than just a one race suspension.
Speaker 3 00:07:30 Yeah. And the point I most agree with, with Kyle Petty was that he said, you know, Kyle Bush's crew was gonna get suspended for four races because they had a tire fall off on pit road when they're going pit road speed under caution mm-hmm. <affirmative>, right? The tire never left pit road. He wasn't on the racetrack when it fell off. And I get that you don't wanna parse this rule because of the safety of it, but if you're suspending a guy for races or his crew for races because of the potential danger of a wheel falling off, yet you have a guy who's intentionally using his car as a weapon at the most dangerous spot on the track when the car is the lightest and could go, Hey, Topher Bell not been there. Larson probably goes head long into the wall. That's good point. And the hell knows what happens because you already have safety concerns with this car. And then he gets out on a live track and shoves him and the angle from the stands, he shoved him pretty good.
Speaker 2 00:08:27 It was actually a lot worse than like what they showed on the live broadcast.
Speaker 3 00:08:30 Yeah. Now I know Larson's not the biggest dude in the world, but to shoe he is tiny. Like, he's like, I stood next to him at Daytona, he's tiny. Like he's, I'm I'm legit three,
Speaker 2 00:08:41 He's like five four, he's five six.
Speaker 3 00:08:43 Yeah, I'm, I'm like legit three inches taller than him and I'm not that big of a dude.
Speaker 2 00:08:48 It's
Speaker 3 00:08:49 Two. Um, but to Shov have a grown man like four, four or five feet backwards, <laugh> is a pretty good shove. Yeah. So that's the point I agree with Kyle Petty the most on is like the, just the, the weird look for NASCAR about, well you got a car going 40 miles an hour and a tire falls off and nothing, it didn't hit anything. Nobody got hurt or whatever. But then you have a guy intentionally using his car as a weapon at 180 miles an hour and he gets one race compared to four. So, but side note, that also means that, uh, Kyle Bush will not longer have Adam Stevens as a group chief for the rest of his career probably because he leaves for rcr, uh, at the end of the year. So, um, yeah, Vegas things got crazy. What else do we expect? It's Vegas, right? It's <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:09:40 It was a solid race.
Speaker 3 00:09:42 It <laugh> it was. Um, I'm really not happy. I can't bet in number like I could do Offshores, but I, I would prefer not to. Um, because I had a real good betting day at picks wise cuz I had Reddick mentioned as the poll sitter. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I had plus 700, I had Lianos the top board at plus 2 75 and then I had Lagano as the winner at plus 1500. So that's like a 24.7 unit day. Um, I couldn't take advantage of.
Speaker 2 00:10:14 Uh, but we will turn our attention to, uh, Homestead Miami, uh, one of the best races of the year. Uh, it's a shame that they can't put this track on the schedule twice because I, I don't like that. I like that it gets a playoff race. However, not enough eyes get on this because like so many people are just watching NFL and it's just the end of the NASCAR season. High time for NASCAR is really in the spring and the summer when it's really just down to baseball. Um, which is a snooze fest of a sport in my opinion. Uh, but with this just being, it's, it's just, it's an oval, it's a mile and a half, but like the, the multiple grooves and, and just how many ways you can run this track. You can run the highline. There's, there's also tire wear that comes into play.
Speaker 2 00:10:57 It just produces some of the best strategic racing. Um, I think it's a phenomenal week for dfs. This might be the first time all playoffs and probably the first time in a few months since maybe one of the road courses back in like July and August that I'm probably gonna go pretty heavy DFS wise for this race just because it's such a good strategy race. We get qualifying, we get practice, there's plenty of time to digest that information. We have all three series this weekend. I'm just, this is probably the most excited I've been for a NASCAR weekend and we're finishing it up with Homestead, Martinsville and Phoenix. Three of the best tracks for DFS and just for like quality racing. So I'm back in going heavy this weekend. I'm very excited to uh, see these guys I guess run what is now considered the highest tire track on the schedule
Speaker 3 00:11:46 Except for auto club.
Speaker 2 00:11:48 Oh
Speaker 3 00:11:48 Yeah, I forgot about that one, but how
Speaker 2 00:11:49 Did I forget
Speaker 3 00:11:50 About that? Um, but yeah, I, uh, I agree with you. It is my favorite track. The, this is the track that puts, um, the racing most in the driver's hand of any track on the schedule, right? If you don't have a car that's set up all that well, you can still make hay here cuz you can drive a different line. You can, you know, if you are good at tire management homesteads for you, if you are a former dirt racer and you can like hit the cushion and not go over it and control your car when the, when the tires are nonexistent, this is the track for you. If you are good at intermediates, this is the track for you. So it brings everybody into play. It is, uh, just a phenomenal track. I really wish they would actually bring the championship back to Miami, um, because it is the track that puts things the most in driver's hands and lets them sort it out.
Speaker 3 00:12:47 Unless of course you're Martin Drs with a pick crew that puts the tires on. Um, so yeah, I'm, I'm very excited about it. It's an, it's actually a morning practice and qualifying session on Saturday morning for Cup. Uh, interestingly enough, it's also an F one weekend at Coda and FP three and qualifying actually happen after, uh, Cup practice and qualifying at Homestead. So I, I found that to be interesting. Uh, those of you hoping to watch both races this weekend, you're gonna have to have multiple screens cuz they're on basically the exact same time on Sunday. They're, they start within a half hour of each other, uh, right in the middle of the one o'clock, uh, games for nfl. So I am very excited about this. You're right, we do get all three series here this weekend. Um, and yeah, I just, I just really like Homestead and the racing and look, we've seen the next Gen car go just produce excellent races at Intermediate Track so far. Like Harken back to Auto Club with the tire wear and how awesome that was. And Kansas has been phenomenal both races and Vegas had two very good races. So like, I think we're in for quite a show here this weekend with this car.
Speaker 2 00:14:13 Uh, the schedule for this weekend, uh, as I said, all three races, uh, series are running Homestead. This is the Penn Ultimate race for the Campy World Truck series. Uh, before it becomes the, oh man, what is it next year?
Speaker 3 00:14:29 Craft Craftsman.
Speaker 2 00:14:30 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:14:31 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:14:31 Uh, Friday.
Speaker 3 00:14:33 I'm excited that that sponsorship is back cuz it's always just felt right being the Craftsman Truck series.
Speaker 2 00:14:40 So practice and qualifying are on Friday for the trucks at 4:00 PM Eastern time. That's when practice gets underway. Um, not on tv, which is kind of a bummer cause I was either looking forward to trying to find a way to stream it while I was at work or uh, just recording it at the very least. It's, so we're just gonna have to go off what we hear on Twitter unfortunately. Uh, and then 6:00 PM
Speaker 3 00:15:03 Not on the
Speaker 2 00:15:04 App. It's not on anything. The NASCAR website says no tv it's not on anything. It's infuriating because I I I purely, I just sincerely don't get it. I don't get how like Fox Sports can't just stream this on the Fox Sports Go App in any capacity. There's nothing else on at 4:00 PM on a Friday.
Speaker 3 00:15:22 Well yeah cuz the, because you only have the Nlcs, you don't have the alcs so the Nlcs would be in Philly at that point. So it's gotta be on Friday night. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:15:39 So I don't, I don't really understand the theory behind it, but whatever no TV practice and qualifying starting at four for the trucks, uh, practice and qualifying at 6:00 PM for Xfinity. I'm gonna try and do example lineups for both series. Now granted, keep in mind I do have to write essentially two playbooks for both series Friday night into Saturday. Bear with me if I don't have playbooks. Um, not to mention it's a very early uh, UFC slate on Saturday, so I'm gonna be a bear. Uh, but the truck series kicks off 1:00 PM Eastern Time. The Xfinity series is at four 30. I'll be in the Discord for the truck race. I don't think I'm gonna be in there for the Xfinity race. I do apologize, but I'm gonna go see one of my favorite comedians on Saturday. Looking forward to that. And then, uh, the NASCAR Cup race, the Dixie Vodka 400 is two 30 Sunday afternoon high time during nfl. But do dedicate one of your TVs to this race. It's absolutely phenomenal.
Speaker 3 00:16:36 Yeah, it's gonna be, let me put it this way, the action on the track in Miami on Sunday afternoon will be far better than the action on the field in Miami on Sunday night. Um, tool
Speaker 2 00:16:48 Is back
Speaker 3 00:16:48 Though. What
Speaker 2 00:16:49 Got tool back.
Speaker 3 00:16:51 Okay, but it's against the Steelers
Speaker 2 00:16:53 Tool is back.
Speaker 3 00:16:55 The Steelers suck.
Speaker 2 00:16:57 Gave the bucks a game last week.
Speaker 3 00:16:59 <laugh>. Well, okay but that's a different, that's, that's against a 45 year old Tom Brady with no offensive line help.
Speaker 2 00:17:09 Let's not uh, go ahead. Did you have anything else?
Speaker 3 00:17:12 No, I was just saying like, you know, normal schedule for me, I'll have practice and qualifying, um, stuff, you know, noted and then playbook will come out Saturday afternoon probably. I'll try to sneak it in there between watching F1 cuz yes, I'm still gonna watch f1. I know the season is, you know, it's over basically over cause
Speaker 2 00:17:33 No it's not basically over. It is over versus doesn't even race anymore. He's already champion.
Speaker 3 00:17:38 Well okay, but he still believes he needs one more point cuz he, he still doesn't think the fastest lab should have counted in Japan. But that's a different <laugh>. That's a different kinda of worms. Um, I'm still gonna watch it. I enjoy it. It is also like one of my favorite road courses cuz it's Coda. Um, so yeah, I will have also F1 content for whoever wants to play. I doubt that it will actually, uh, get a whole lot of attention given that the season's over and it's against football and Cup series. Um, and then I'll have, you know, I'll probably pick stuff out Sunday morning example, lineups Sunday about 90 minutes before Green Flag. So you know, normal, normal content flow this week.
Speaker 2 00:18:26 All right, let's dig in. Uh, I guess it's no surprise that the two drivers that this track caters most to, uh, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, they are the most expensive options on Draft Kings. Reddick is ten nine, Larson is ten eight. Looking at the rest of the $10,000 drivers, we have four more. Uh, surprisingly Denny Hamlin, I guess that makes sense. I saw him going off of like seven or eight to one to win. Um, he's ten six. Chase Elliot is ten four. I don't think I'm gonna play him very much. Ryan Blaney is ten two and we're looking at a scenario <laugh> it would be hilarious, especially with Ed Rouse. Ed Rouse will be covering for me on the podcast next week cause I have to head out of town for work. Ryan Blaney is ten two doesn't wanna race all year every time it looks like Blaney's gonna be a good play. He absolutely sucks, but he's still very much alive to win the Cup Series championship without winning a race this year. Uh, I think Matt Crafton did that a few years ago in the truck series. Uh, Kyle Bush is an even 10 flat. Um, I don't think that we necessarily need to do anything special regarding breaking down Reddick or Larson. If you wanna elaborate, go crazy. I'm more interested in who you like in the 10 K range outside of those two. But if you have any thoughts on the top two drivers, by all means go crazy.
Speaker 3 00:19:41 I mean it's pretty clear that the two best drivers at the track are the two highest price guys. Uh, Tyler Reddick has been absolutely sensational at the track except for the time where he forgot that there was one more lap to go and then got past. So he finished fourth instead of third. Um, but Larson's been phenomenal here. Look, dirt trackers are gonna be good here. Um, it's just, it's just the way it goes. Denny Hamlin, I like a lot this week. I think Toyota's have been very good at Intermediate Tracks. This is a very good track for him. Um, he still needs some help to, you know, maybe winning a race is might be the best way for him to assure that he makes uh, you know, a title run. So those are probably my, I'm not touching Chase Elliot this week. I said if you caught my segment with Pete Stony on Nas on Sirius XM NASCAR radio on Sunday before Vegas.
Speaker 3 00:20:46 Look, Chase Elliot in Intermediate Tracks coming into Vegas had an average finish of 19.4 this year. He's not been good at mile and a half tracks. He just hasn't. In fact, Eric Jones has more top tens and more top 15 finishes on mile and a halfs and intermediates than Chase Elliot does this year. In case you're wondering why I'm again high on Eric accounts. Um, so I'm not paying that much for Chase Elliott at this dial of track. I will pay for him at Martinsville. I'm not at homesick. Um, I don't know man. He's fast every week and doesn't get anything for it. Just like Kyle Bush is fast every week and doesn't have anything to show for it. So it's kinda how the 10 k guys breakdown for me. Really.
Speaker 2 00:21:32 No, I kind of agree. I'm very high on Hamlin. Um, honestly, if Joey Lagano was in the 10 K range, he's just below at 9,800, I think that there'd be a fairly interesting leverage spot just because I think a lot of people would be off of him strictly because he won last week. There's this perception that drivers tend to just take their foot off the gas and just prepare for Phoenix. While that may be true, I do think that this is also a style, uh, track that Joey Lagano can perform very well at.
Speaker 3 00:21:58 Um, and he has, by the way, he won the championship on this track Yeah, a few years ago. Um, and we saw Martin Dros Jr by the way win like every race in the round of eight one year. Cuz he just didn't want anybody else to clench their way in. He wanted 'em to have to point their way in. So I don't see why Lagano would take his foot off the gas at a track he's been good at. And I and we saw
Speaker 2 00:22:22 Him win a higher tire wear track earlier in the year.
Speaker 3 00:22:24 Yeah, he was very good at auto club.
Speaker 2 00:22:27 Well, he won Darlington
Speaker 3 00:22:29 And Darlington. Yes.
Speaker 2 00:22:31 All right. Uh, uh, speaking of auto club, uh, he was a, did grab a top five with a couple of do points as well. Um, moving down the 90 K range, we have Ross Chesting at 9,600 Martin TRS Jr. At 94. William Byron is gonna probably be a popular play because he has one here before. And Christopher Bell is 9,000, um, in this range. I'm really digging Ross Chestain. He went through a bit of a cold streak to I guess kind of close out the season. Really kind of like found his groove. I I do think that track house is gonna be fast this weekend. He was second last week at Vegas, led 68 laps with 23 fastest laps. We're seeing him get back into that mode of, uh, finding speed again. Um, you know, he was great earlier in the year at uh, Vegas and sure enough he followed it up with a solid Vegas run last week. I think. I really want to say that he was looking great at auto club as well in the first race, but then I wanna say he got into a wreck and finished 29th.
Speaker 3 00:23:37 Yeah, I think his tire
Speaker 2 00:23:39 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:23:40 Came apart or got caught up by somebody's tire thing.
Speaker 2 00:23:42 You know, very similar to Tyler Reddick's. Reddick had a great run at Auto Club and then had a port finish where he dominated a bunch of laps finish, wasn't there. So ob I'm, there are so many drivers to like this weekend. I mean I do have some guys that I don't have any interest in playing, but among these guys over nine K, there's a handful that I want to get exposure to.
Speaker 3 00:24:01 Yeah. By the way, Chestain is second in the standings right now.
Speaker 2 00:24:05 <laugh>, that's awesome.
Speaker 3 00:24:07 The top four are Lagano, Chastain, Chase, and Hamlin is six points above the cutoff. Byron is six points out. Brisco is nine points out, Blaney is 11 out and Bell is 23 out. So nobody needs a win yet at this point. Those are all makeable, uh, pretty, pretty quickly. Um, yeah, I look your argument for Chestain is fantastic. Um, he's had speed, he's found his groove
Speaker 2 00:24:38 Butt coming,
Speaker 3 00:24:39 He's found his groove. Um, I don't really have anything else to say about that. Like I now, if he doesn't win this week and he's inside the cutoff, do not, do not play him at Martinsville because that's when payback is going to come out of the championship.
Speaker 2 00:25:06 That's a great point.
Speaker 3 00:25:08 That's if he doesn't win this week, but he has a good run. He should be above the cutoff like he is right now. And you can guarantee that the two dudes below him right now in the standings and Chase Elliot and Denny Hamlin will pull a tag team routine at Martinsville much like they did at Gateway and ruined Chastain's night. So, um, with that being said, yeah, uh, I'm fine with, Yeah, Byron was sneaky fast at this track last year, um, just kinda came outta nowhere and dominated that race. Well
Speaker 2 00:25:45 That was such a weird race, uh, because Chris Buscher led a lot of laps and then Byron took over and pretty much ran away with it from there. Yeah, it was, it was a very unconventional Miami race in that we just didn't see the guys we thought would dominated. But then we saw guys that have just proven on higher tire war tracks. Like they, they took over and it was, you know, Busher who I think can have a good day as well. And obviously we've already talked about Byron and he's, is he kind of in a win and he's in situation or is there a way that he could still point his his way
Speaker 3 00:26:18 In? Oh, he could point his way in. I mean he's only, he's only six out. So let's put it this way. If he finishes second in the first age and Hamlin finishes eighth in the first stage, they're basically tied. And then from there it just becomes, if he finishes one spot better than Hamlin, he's Ian and Hamlin's not gotcha. Like six is not, is not by like bail is out by 23 points. That's not even insurmountable. Let's say he gets, I don't know, 17 stage points and beats Hamlin by six points, six spots on the track. They're tied like <laugh>. It could be an absolutely bunks Martinsville race if it stays, if it stays this close.
Speaker 2 00:27:11 Uh, what's the read on Bell? How well do we project him to do? Um, we've commented on his playoff potential and his upside. Um, he has, he won the role. He has three other top fives in the playoff races. Uh, did get screwed unfortunately last week. Uh, do we think that this is a, an extreme bounce back effort and could we see him just below this race, outta the water? I'm not entirely sure how good he is on these high tire tracks.
Speaker 3 00:27:45 I'm iffy on Bell only because of the tire wear. Like he's been very good at intermediates. You can make the argument he's been the most consistently fast Toyota on the intermediates this year. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. But on the high tire wear side of things, I think he tends to struggle to get the most out of his tires. Um, that they can. Now I will say, and I have to go dig up this information, I saw it on Twitter. Um, I think Ryan Stevens had it out, uh, if I'm not mistaken, but he had, he had lap times out from the Goodyear test, um, that was held here last month. Yeah. Um, I believe Ryan Stevens has, has that good year test, uh, data tweeted out. Um, and Bell in the first testing day was, it looks like top, Yeah he was top five in speed and then I don't believe he got back in the car for day two cuz you had like, you had a four driver team, you got two cars and four drivers.
Speaker 3 00:28:56 So they took turns. Not everybody got a whole lot of um, lapse, but it is something to pay a little bit of attention to. By the way, Denny Hammond was top five in both uh, sessions there. Lagano was second in day one and first in day two. Um, so if we want <laugh>, if we wanna go based off of tire testing data, um, there is that. So I don't know, I think, I think Bell is a reasonable play. I'm not sure that many people are gonna be on him, uh, in this range. But, uh, what to see kind of how he looks and where he started
Speaker 2 00:29:38 The sub nine K range all the way, pretty much down to uh, I don't know, there's just, there's a lot of like question marks in the eight and seven K range that are just really jumping off the page as purely GPP plays. And the one guy that I am probably very curious to get your opinion on is Eric Jones because we've talked about the, the discussion coming into the 2022 NASCAR season especially for DFS was no one really knew what to expect with the new car. And a lot of people were pretty much throwing out track history because it just couldn't apply in this car. Eric Jones this year has done very well on high tire wear tracks, grabbed a top 10 at Vegas last week, which is kind of medium tire wear. Uh, he did win Darlington uh, back in September. Um, just scrolling back to, he was third at Auto Club back in February with 18 lap lead and 23 fastest laps. Um, so as I've said, you know, pretty good on high tire war tracks this week. That's what we're getting. Uh, but if we're looking at track history in five races here, he does have a third place finish from three years ago, but he is also finished outside the top 24 other times.
Speaker 3 00:30:56 Yep.
Speaker 2 00:30:57 Uh, so given what we saw last week from Jones on a high tire, on a relatively high tire war track and just what we've seen from Darlington and Auto Club, do we expect him to be kind of chalky in a spot that we could ultimately just be underweight? I don't necessarily want to fade him completely, uh, especially if I'm doing 20 laps. I at least want him in maybe two, uh, possibly three or four. But I think this is a spot that we should aim to be underweight.
Speaker 3 00:31:27 As much as it pains me to say I agree with you. Um, I think look, the, the MO with Jones the last few years has been to play him at tracks where he's steadily shown that regardless of equipment he can put up results. Right? That's what we've basically always said is he's bounced around, he's driven for three different teams, but in that same span, he's done X, Y, and Z at this track. So we can trust that it's his skill and not the equipment. Right. That is not true at Homestead. He has a 21st, 27th third, 21st 27th in the last five races that, that, that tells me he has not yet figured out this track. So while he did win at Darlington, Yeah, he's previously run very, very well at Darlington. He's also won there prior to that um, auto club. I don't really remember how well he ran there cuz I think he only ran there maybe once or twice before this year cuz they took that two year break from it. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Um, so look, if he shows a bunch of speed this week, then I'm gonna be, I'm gonna up percentages a little bit but I'm still gonna aim to be underweight on him just because he just hasn't seemed comfortable at this track.
Speaker 2 00:32:55 Uh, who else do you maybe like in this range? I don't know what to make at Chase Brisco. I'm not overly
Speaker 3 00:33:02 Agreed
Speaker 2 00:33:03 Excited about him. Uh, if he's offering PD maybe I'll take it.
Speaker 3 00:33:08 Um, I think Austin CD's gonna get some play this week.
Speaker 2 00:33:11 See I thought so as well and I don't know if I'll get there, but I mean I do like the price tag. Uh, I if I, I feel like if I like Lagano, if I like Blaney then I also have to like the setup for Syndra as well and he's the cheapest of the three Penske drivers obviously as nothing to race for nearly on the level of Blaney or Lagano. But still Team Penske I have to assume that they show up with the right setup.
Speaker 3 00:33:39 Yeah, I mean he had speed last week, right? They all qualified very well at Vegas. Um, but also at the Goodyear Tire test, like now that that's all over the place, everybody's talking about how they're basing bets off of it. Crick had among the fastest times. Yeah, well like <laugh> you, we can't forget that. He's also raced pretty well here in Xfinity, so, um, I think, I think he's gonna get some play this week. I don't really know what to make of I'm I'm with you on Brisco. I don't think I really wanna play him. Um, he just, he just hasn't looked very good very consistently this year. Um, Harvick, I don't know what what, what happened to him. I don't know where the hell the speed went that they had earlier in the year, but it seems to have disappeared. Um, although he did, he did get a, a decent run at times at Vegas. I don't think the finish necessarily matched where he was running.
Speaker 2 00:34:44 He he won Richmond right? Like the second Richmond race?
Speaker 3 00:34:50 Yes. He won like back to Yes.
Speaker 2 00:34:52 And that's, that's like a, that's relatively high tire right. And he used to dominate Atlanta when it was old Atlanta when Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:35:00 I mean drag history here is good right? But the problem is
Speaker 2 00:35:04 You're just worrying about like recent trends
Speaker 3 00:35:06 Like Darlington, he now I know he was very quick at Darlington in the entire blue while he was leading, so that's a little misleading but like 36 at Kansas again he had a tire thing. So the question is do we trust the equipment? Do they have it set up right or is he just getting snake bit by tire problems? Bristol, he was 10th. Um, Texas 19th Talladega had never been his cup of tea. He was 29 then Roly finished second and Vegas was 12th. That's okay. But like I just don't know if we can count on him to be the top 10 dude that we were counting on him to be earlier in the year is all I'm saying like they've kind of seemingly slowed down some of late. Um, I kinda like, cuz I ask you this week,
Speaker 2 00:36:05 See I like him. I'm probably gonna like butcher too. It's hard not to like butcher. Um, top 15 last week, sixth at the rule did win Bristol now mixed into that amongst the playoff races or some finishes outside of the top 20. Um, but what we saw from him a year ago, uh, I'm, I'm willing to take risk at 6,900 and Bruce, his last's only a hundred dollars more and I think I could jump on that as well.
Speaker 3 00:36:33 Now this is impressive over the last five homestead races. Yeah, here's Buscher has an average starting spot of 20.2. He has an average finishing spot of 20.2
Speaker 2 00:36:45 <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:36:46 Literally down to the decimal, the exact <laugh> the exact same. Um, he's got, you know, he is run, okay here he is got three top 20. So if he's starting outside the top 20, I like him more, um, for a little bit of PD there. Um, I do think he may be higher played than Klowski simply because he's got the six in front of his salary instead of the seven. Even though it's a hundred dollars difference, um, I I think it's a mental trick for people that they'd rather spend 6,900 instead of 7,000. Um,
Speaker 2 00:37:21 Nice.
Speaker 3 00:37:23 But yeah, I don't know the rest, like I don't know what to do with Grason. I don't know if I trust Suarez.
Speaker 2 00:37:31 Uh, I'm probably not gonna blame much of Suarez.
Speaker 3 00:37:34 I don't know what to do with Almond dinger at this point. Like the speed is there to be sure. But
Speaker 2 00:37:46 Can I ask you a question?
Speaker 3 00:37:47 Yes.
Speaker 2 00:37:48 How much stock are you willing to put into the practice sessions this week? Cause they're probably only gonna get at best what a 20 to 22 lap run at best.
Speaker 3 00:38:01 At best. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:38:02 And how much weight are we putting into that at a high tire wear track where you're not gonna get to really gauge how good teams are in the longer run where tires are falling off?
Speaker 3 00:38:17 Um, I mean if we get 20, if we get 15 or 20 lab runs, I'm gonna count it pretty, pretty decently. Um, cuz tires are starting to fall off at that point at Homestead. Um,
Speaker 2 00:38:29 I'd be more, I'd rather see like what the 30 lap run is. I mean, but not gonna get that
Speaker 3 00:38:35 In practice. You're not gonna get it because you're not running 30 laps on a 20 minute practice session. Yeah. Um, cuz you're not turning. I mean maybe, maybe you could, I don't know. Blaney didn't Blaney turn out. I thought Blaney turned out like 30 lap runs at Vegas last week. Let me see, see if I can find that data.
Speaker 2 00:39:07 Oh, it's gonna be in my playbook actually no I don't think so.
Speaker 3 00:39:16 Ran. Yeah, let me see. Anybody run? Yeah, Blaney ran at least a 25 lap run at practice. You also ran a 30 lap run at practice at Vegas. So you can do it, it's gonna mean you're not coming into the pits. You've just gotta go out there and you just got to sit there and turn laps and not come in for any adjustments or anything. But they could do it. I mean if you're turning 30 laps in a 20 minute practice session at Vegas, Vegas, there's no reason you can't do it at Homestead considering the fact of the same, the same length. So whether we're gonna get enough to judge anything from it, probably not cuz I don't think, I think Blaney was the only guy. Blaney's the only guy with a 30 Lapper. I think he was the only guy with a 25 lap run last week, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. Um, and only a couple of people put up 20 lap runs Blaney Crick. Okay. Two dudes ran 20 lap consecutive runs in Vegas last week. It was Blaney and Crick. So, and maybe that's because they weren't concerned about tire. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, maybe we get lucky here, but that would have to mean that everybody from every practice doesn't go into pits ever for any adjustment of any kind. <laugh>. I, I don't know that that happens.
Speaker 2 00:40:46 All right. Uh, moving on into the pure tier, uh, some interesting names. Uh, Eric Elmore. I don't know if I can get there. Stenhouse is interesting. Uh, Justin Haley is probably gonna be the most popular driver in this range. Five straight races finishing in the top 15, um, seventh, straight in the top 20. So I don't really care where he's,
Speaker 3 00:41:10 Yeah, he's been in the top 20 every playoff race.
Speaker 2 00:41:13 Yeah, I don't really care where he starts. If he's getting a top 15 then he's in immense value and the price tag is barely going up. He was 6,000 for Bristol, uh, 57 for Texas 62 for daca, 62 for the Roal 58 last week in Vegas and he's crushing value and only 63 this week. The price tag barely went up. So once again you can go to Justin Haley as a nice little value play. John Hunter Nema check at 6,100 in a car he has not driven this year on a high tire or track. That's gonna be a pass for me.
Speaker 3 00:41:46 Yeah, I'm not touching, I'm not, I'm not touching John Hunter Nema check. I didn't even want him when he was in the Cup series full time <laugh>. Uh, cuz there's a reason he's no longer in the Cup series full time. Um, yeah. Justin Haley, I'm with you. Um, look in 12 intermediate races this year. Justin Haley's average finish is 17.8.
Speaker 2 00:42:11 Holy crap. Matt,
Speaker 3 00:42:13 What
Speaker 2 00:42:14 One hears some NFL news?
Speaker 3 00:42:16 Sure.
Speaker 2 00:42:17 Christian McCaffery traded to the 49ers.
Speaker 3 00:42:21 Is that real?
Speaker 2 00:42:22 That's real.
Speaker 3 00:42:24 Are we sure
Speaker 2 00:42:25 Adam Scher just tweeted it. It's not like a, a fake account
Speaker 3 00:42:30 Chef to Jesus. So everybody, Ryan Ham's gonna be unreachable for a while.
Speaker 2 00:42:36 <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:42:38 Uh, cuz Ryan Ham is a massive 49ers fan. Um, so yeah, that's, that's some serious news right there. Um, sorry it's kinda got me, that's not where I, that's not where I thought he was gonna go. I thought he was going to Kansas City to be honest. Um,
Speaker 2 00:43:02 Apologies for cutting you off but I just couldn't.
Speaker 3 00:43:04 No, you're good. I'm gonna go see where, um, so had 17.8 average finish for Justin Haley this year. You want to, you wanna hear where it puts him basically in the realm of if he's basically even with Kyle Bush? Jesus, uh, cuz Kyle Bush and 12 Intermediate Races has a 17.5 average finish this year. The only difference is Justin Haley's starting 20, basically 25th every race and Kyle Bush is starting 14. So I will take the PD from Justin Haley <laugh> and Dodge The bad luck, Bad luck from um, and Justin Haley's average finish is two spots better than Chase Elliott's average finish on intermediates this year. Um, it's basically two spots. It's one whole spot better than Chase Brisco's. Um, yeah so I'm with you. I think the um, the lid is off on Justin Haley. You could basically put 'em in a cash game build at this point cuz he's one of only I think three drivers to finish in the top 20 in every single playoff race uh, this year.
Speaker 2 00:44:09 Uh, what other value plays are you looking at this week? I mean, I could maybe get behind Tie Gibbs. Um, the problem with gives is that he always just qualifies so well and then, you know, when you play him in a gpp you're like well if he can just gain three or four spots, get a top 15, maybe sneak in a top 12, the problem is he is not doing that because he is so well and so it's like you really just need him to qualify outside the top 20 to feel better about the play. Not very interested in Col, Kuster, um, Harrison Burton, it's hard to get excited about. Um, really for me in the value range is that if you need to go cheaper than Haley or pair another value plate with Haley, it's probably gonna be this week for me. It's gonna be Stenhouse, it's gonna be Gilland or it's gonna be Lejo and that's about all that I'm interested in this range.
Speaker 3 00:45:00 What about Ty Dylan? I'm not saying for gpp, I'm saying for No, I get it.
Speaker 2 00:45:08 Yeah, no, cause
Speaker 3 00:45:09 He's never gonna give you the massive upside that you need for a a GP P Granted he did not have a very good Vegas race. I'll grant you. It's, it's been but he did run pretty well at Texas. He moved up 16 spots at Texas. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, which is as we know, attire issue track. Um, he did move up at the Southern 500 of Darlington. So he, he had a pretty good race at Richmond. So look it's not sexy but he is a guy that will keep the car clean, he can move up pretty decently. Um, and I'm just trying to see what he did. He had a solid, he had a top 17 run at Auto Club earlier this year. He had a top 20 at Vegas earlier in the year. Um, so you know in good Year 400 the first Darlington race or was that Atlanta?
Speaker 2 00:46:16 No, I think the good year 400 was Darlington.
Speaker 3 00:46:18 Yeah. So he finished 12th at that one too. Um, plus he just got signed for fulltime for 2023 uh, in the Cup Series. So that's Aspire. Yeah. So he is gonna be little enjoys teammate. That's pretty interesting pairing there. So look it again, Knots actually it's not for a gpp I would say the other guys you mentioned I like as well, perhaps a couple of 'em more for gpp, but Ty Dylan's a guy that it, you know, 5,700 you don't need much from a top 25 finish.
Speaker 2 00:46:54 Well not even that. Like it depends on really on like
Speaker 3 00:46:57 Right. If you starting death last and even finish is like 30th you give. Cause
Speaker 2 00:47:00 I mean if he's, if he's, if I'm gonna play him in cash games, I will at least give him the pass. It's like at 5,700, I don't need 28 and a half points from you. I'll be happy with like 24, which is less than five x value. But like if I have the right do Airplay or the other PD plays, if Justin Haley keeps finishing the top 15, then I'm probably gonna be happy with Ty Dylan just getting at least 20.
Speaker 3 00:47:25 Yeah, exactly. That's, that's all we really need from 'em to be perfectly honest.
Speaker 2 00:47:31 Uh, any other strategies, advice you wanted to offer? Uh, apologies for throwing everyone off their, I
Speaker 3 00:47:38 Guess, Well I mean it's a huge, it's a huge trade. I have to see how this can affect my fantasy teams too cuz I have CMC in a couple of league. Um, but for strategy here, I'm gonna build a a few lineups that are one dominator and I'm gonna build a few lineups that are um, a couple of dominators. The reason for that is if the trend for intermediates holds this year, we should see probably two dominators, right? That's usually what we've seen at intermediates. However, the last few times we've raised at Homestead, we've seen one guy basically run away with it. Mm. Um, now that being said, most of those last handful of races were for the championship. So you would expect one guy to be able to run away with it. Um, but it is a track where if you can hold your line, you can hold your line pad elite, right? Um, so that's kind of my strategy. The rest of it's all gonna be, you know, guys moving up, uh, you know, for pd kinda your standard intermediate builds. Um, I believe it's what, 267 laps this week? If I'm not mistaken. It's
Speaker 2 00:48:51 400 miles. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:48:52 Yeah. Um, so there's a decent, there's a decent hall here for, for lap lead. I don't think we're gonna see it be like the first Vegas race where nobody cracked like the 90 lap slide mark mm-hmm <affirmative>. Um, so that's kind of how I'm approaching this week.
Speaker 2 00:49:14 All right Matt, well thank you so much for your time. Uh, remember, uh, next week is Martinsville. Uh, so if you're kind of creeping up on those laps LED crowns on dk, good opportunity to cash in there.
Speaker 3 00:49:26 Yeah, there's a lot of them in Martinsville,
Speaker 2 00:49:28 <laugh>, <laugh>. The uh, the last three races are gonna be great. These are great tracks. The racing is gonna be very exciting. The drama is only gonna intensify from here. Uh, apologies for not being on next week. Ed Ross will be joining Matt, but I will be back for the championship race in Phoenix. Uh, but Matt with that said,
Speaker 3 00:49:45 Best, and by the way, Ed Rouse is a Padres fan, so there is a decent chance that if Blaney wins at Homestead and the Padres happen to knock off the, uh, the Phillies, we can have a very excitable edra next week. <laugh>.
