Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine.
Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on F nation. Welcome back. This is the NASCAR DFS podcast, but with a heavier touch of bedding this week for a super Speedway, if you've listen, listened to this before, you know that <inaudible> for Speedway like Daytona Talladega, they are generally shorter. We don't know the starting order. Uh, we know some drivers that we like for this style of racing. Matt and I were talking before the podcast and we both agreed. This is probably a better race to just straight up bet rather than for DFS, correct?
Speaker 3 00:00:53 Yeah. I mean, we've got a lot of things at play here, right? It's a plate track. So that's one thing that's always crazy. It's Daytona. That's two things. That's always crazy. It's the last race before the playoffs and there's still a spot up for grabs, which means everybody's gonna be going for it because as long as you're finishing in the top 30 in points right now, you've got a shot at the playoff. Still you win this one and your top 30 in points you get in the playoffs. It doesn't matter what the hell has happened to you. The rest of the season, you made the playoffs, uh, will you be starting pretty low on the totem pole? Yeah, but you're still in the playoffs. So, you know, that's good for you. Um, so all of that is gonna make a nuts for DFS this weekend. Um, also it's a Saturday night race. Let's get that cleared up right off the right off the bat. It's a Saturday night race for cup. Um, so don't come Sunday looking for, for plays. You will have missed the action. Um, Sunday's F1, I'll have a playbook for that, but that's in the morning. Um,
Speaker 2 00:02:01 I'm actually very excited because for the first time in a while, just because of the playoff implications for the cup series, I, I'm not super invested in DFS this weekend. Um, I've said numerous times on these podcasts, I only do three Xfinity, one line up for cup. Uh, and then if I can, I want to get exposure to the betting market for this race. Now, uh, the books have already opened and some lines have already adjusted, but we'll still get to ones that we still kind of like, but I'm more invested just in how this playoff picture for the cup series can shake up. Cuz there's only like for Ryan Blaney, he can win his way in, or he could still point his way in. But if on the wild chance that somebody comes outta nowhere and steals the playoff spot from, and there is a lot of drama, if you're unfamiliar with NASCAR, it's, it's the final race of the regular season, the playoffs over labor day, weekend, uh, in Darlington.
Speaker 2 00:03:01 And they run through November. So if you're, if you're jumping on for NASCAR DFS at this point in the season, I don't know what the hell you're doing, but welcome aboard. Um, but I I'm really not thrilled about DFS this weekend. There's too much variance. You really have to like max enter GPP and hope you somehow hit a lineup with six drivers in the top 10, which can be done because salary and prices, they don't really matter for super speedways, but I've made it clear in the past. I don't like these races. I'm, I'm gonna play one lineup for each race because I want the iron man credit, uh, on draft Kings. But overall I just wanna, I just wanna watch some plate racing.
Speaker 3 00:03:40 Yeah. I'm kind of with you, um, on that, I'm gonna play a lot less than I normally do. These are typically light weekends for me. Um, simply because there's no reason to expose your bank role, uh, to a race where literally anybody can win. I mean, it was this time. Yeah, exactly. That's the other thing is we've got <laugh>, you know, NFL starting no, uh, September 8th, right? Um, so contests are gonna be a little smaller buckle up for that across the board. I know we've been talking about it in cups and or trucks and Xfinity for a while now, but it's gonna happen a cup here
Speaker 2 00:04:21 Too. It's gonna hit cups.
Speaker 3 00:04:22 Um, also F1 is starting back up, so that's gonna take some money away from NASCAR cuz it's the new hip thing. Right. Um, so we've got that. We've also got a massive boatload of variance. Um, and so I'm kind of with you, it's a lighter DFS week. That doesn't mean we're gonna go drop all of our bank world into betting. Like let's be smart about the betting, but these are races where you can make very nice returns because long shots do tend to hit. I mean last year, day 2,500 bet, Michael McDowell's win it. Plus it's 66 to one now thanks to Brad Hela and Joey Lagado wrecking each other out that hit, however he was in position for a top five. Um, even without that wreck, so long shots can hit here. Um, we've seen guys like Justin Hailey going off at like 75 to one pull off a win cuz Kurt Bush and his pit crew were pretty stupid with pit strategy. So there is that there are interesting bets to be made. We will touch on those. Um, I guess we could just dive right in.
Speaker 2 00:05:36 Uh, I guess I'll just touch on Xfinity real quick. I'll still a, uh, late Thursday night, really Friday morning, the playbook's gonna be up prior to practicing or actually there are, there is no practice this week. The playbook will be up prior to qualifying. Um, you know, if you've been in the, the discord, you know, the one bet that I placed, uh, for the Xfinity race, I'm only doing one line up for Xfinity. I will have a player pool in place. Just, just guys that I know have had success on super speedways, but even they're not safe. No one's, uh, exempt from the big one, but the Xfinity will have updates. Uh, I, I guess following qualifying the problem is that I'm not gonna be home before the, the race starts. So from like six 30 to seven 30, I'm probably not gonna be in the discord.
Speaker 2 00:06:30 Um, but yeah, I mean just, just be smart. You guys are smart, you know, the strategies, if there's a guy in the playbook that I list, but he's, and I say he's, he's, he's worth a shown a GPB, but then he is starting too high and he's historically a driver we don't trust. Then you obviously you fade him, uh, and goes into this. And if you don't, I'll include some thoughts on that process in the playbook, but that's just my stance on the Xfinity race. If you missed out on Justin Haley 20 to one on DK sports book, I feel bad for you.
Speaker 3 00:07:03 Yeah. That line moved. Go ahead. That line moved in a hurry. Yeah. Uh, cuz everybody hammered it. Like I was on, he went from
Speaker 2 00:07:12 20 to one to the race favorite at eight to one.
Speaker 3 00:07:15 Yeah. Um, I mean the dudes want a ton of a ton of plate races at that level. Um, so yeah, if you missed out on that one, that's a shame for you for sure. Cuz he's uh, you're not gonna find him at that level anymore. Um, on the cup side, we'll talk mostly lineup construction thoughts in this podcast. I mean basically anybody's in play this week. Yes. There'll be a playbook. That'll highlight the guys that typically do well at these, um, kind of tracks and the guys that have an outside shot at the playoffs, if they can, you know, string a good finish together. Um, but basically anybody is in play this week. We're going to touch on how much money you should probably be leaving on the table. Hint it's a lot. Um, and kind of how builds generally come together for these races is mostly what's gonna be the podcast plus some, some nice bets.
Speaker 3 00:08:19 So I guess I'll touch on, um, looking at the optimal lineups from the last four plate races this year. Uh, and this is thanks to race sheets on Twitter. Uh, put this together a couple of days ago and looked at, uh, Daytona 501st Talladega race and the two Atlanta races, which now count as plate races. Um, and basically showed that out of the 24 drivers in those optimal lineups cuz it's for trafficking. So there's six guys in the optimal lineup per race for races, 24 guys. Um, six out of 24 of those started in the top 10 starting spots, seven out of 24 started between 11th and 19th and 11 out of 24 started between 20th and 40th. So if you wanna just act the back, which is usually what people like to do here, you'll have an okay cash day, but that's not how you're winning money in GPP.
Speaker 3 00:09:23 You still have to be sly about how you put your lineups together. We're not chasing lap lead dominators, cuz it's just not gonna happen here. Doesn't make a lot of sense at plate tracks to do that. You just need six guys to finish as high as they possibly can. Um, and you know, if they all happen to start in the thirties, okay. But that's generally not how it's played out in the last several races of this style. Um, usually you want like one guy from the top 10, one or two from 11 through 20 and then the rest you basically want from 20th to like 30th, um, is, is generally the way we're approaching builds this week.
Speaker 2 00:10:12 Yeah. You kinda just hit on, did discuss track breakdown a little bit or any of that.
Speaker 3 00:10:20 Um, I mean, you know, it's Daytona, so it's a two and a half mile track. It's very, very steeply banked. The banking is over 30 degrees. Um, we will see it basically a plate package. Now there, the plate isn't physically on the engine anymore, but it is a reduced, you know, everybody's basically got the same horsepower. Um, everybody's got gigantic spoilers to provide the correct amount of drag. And so you will see cars basically going the same speed, um, and riding together in a pack. And so if somebody sneezes, you can take out like 20 dudes. Um, now will we see single file racing for a good chunk? Probably I would say that most of stage two will probably be single file if I had to put my finger on it, I think it'll be pack racing in stage one. I think it'll be single file in stage two. Uh, the beginning of stage three, probably shuffles out to, um, single file with some key guys making some moves to try to get a little bit of better track position, but like the last 25 laps of this race are gonna be pure chaos. So that's kind of my read on the race this week.
Speaker 2 00:11:40 Perfect. I loved it. It was spot on. You're gonna crush it this week. Um, <laugh> I don't know. I guess we can just, I don't want to dive into the player pool like we normally do because we normally stop at the, the top and then work our way down is relevant. You can leave thousands of dollars on the table on both draft Kings and fan Dalil. Um, do we just want to touch on the noted plate racers? Like, you know, I guess like a quick preview is that, you know, team Penske, Ryan Blaney Joe lag, Austin Crick, historically a very good plate racing team, especially Ryan Blaney Austin Cindrich won the Daytona 500 this year. Yep. Um, CD's also priced down to 8,500, which is more than reasonable. But again,
Speaker 3 00:12:24 I will say that Lagano tends to be better at Talladega than Daytona for whatever reason. Um, well, yeah, Ryan Blaney needs a win to join his other two teammates in the playoffs. It's also coming off of a contract extension, which also by the way, Joey Lagano got today for those that did not see the news, uh, he got a multiyear extension with team Penske.
Speaker 2 00:12:46 They are very hush hush about the length of their extensions though.
Speaker 3 00:12:49 They didn't, they didn't say it for Blaney and they didn't say it for Lagano. So it's no, they just said multi years and they'll be there for a while. So I,
Speaker 2 00:12:57 And you have to imagine that Crick is gonna be there for a while too. So it's like, this is team Penske for a long ass time.
Speaker 3 00:13:02 Well, like it's a rookie deal for him, right? Like I think it's probably starting with a couple of years also Austin Crick's dad.
Speaker 2 00:13:10 The thing about where his dad is with that team,
Speaker 3 00:13:12 The head of like competition for all of Penske. So he's not gonna be like, he'll be there for, it's not going anywhere. Yeah. Um, so yes, those guys are usually pretty good. Uh, former Penske guy, Brad Klowski is usually very good at plate racing. He was very good at Daytona earlier this year, even though we all thought the, uh, number six car was gonna suck, he still drove it up there and was competing
Speaker 2 00:13:42 Very he's nine to one for top four.
Speaker 3 00:13:46 If I take it cuz you know what, the dude needs a win to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 00:13:49 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:13:50 And this is his kind of race to do that. Um, he's been known to make very crazy moves if I recall correctly. Did he, or did he not win a dual at Daytona earlier this year?
Speaker 2 00:14:03 He and Chris Busher won a dual they're the teammates. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:14:06 Yeah. The teammates won the yes. So Bush is also yes. He's sticking with it. Um, he's still
Speaker 2 00:14:13 Going
Speaker 3 00:14:13 With yeah, mainly cuz he's having fun and also cuz his mom likes it. So it's always a good reason to do something cuz your mom likes it. Um, so thanks for Dale junior, uh, for, for making that happen by calling him Christopher on the, on the broadcast there a couple of weeks ago. Um, yeah, that guy's really good. He's been coming on really strong of late and again, like he basically in one of more recent, um, ones he finished second before getting deed, if I'm not mistaken, didn't he finish? He crossed the line second and then he got deed for like the double yellow line rule. That was a bogus ruling. I think it might have been
Speaker 2 00:15:02 Sounds familiar.
Speaker 3 00:15:03 Yeah. Like chase Elliott and he did the same thing in the game. Chase Elliott his spot and then took Chris Busher spot away cuz they, I don't know. It's very weird. Um, but yeah, I mean transition, I guess, to Chevy and Hendrick's gonna lead the way William Byron has won two of the last 10 plate races if you toss Atlanta in there. Um, so he's kind of a sneaky guy, um, focus on, he won this race last year. He needed to, to punch his ticket to the playoff. Um, and chase Elliot is the only guy with, uh, an, an average finished position this year in the four plate races in the single digits
Speaker 2 00:15:51 Who
Speaker 3 00:15:52 He's the only driver in all of the field to have an average finished position in four plate races this year in the single digits.
Speaker 2 00:16:02 And he did win Atlanta. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:16:04 Yeah. Um, so that's, that's pretty impressive. He's also kind of trying to get a win back, I guess. <laugh> however you wanna talk about it with,
Speaker 2 00:16:14 I don't get why he is trying to have a win. He's trying to get a win back when he got a free one given to him at Pocono.
Speaker 3 00:16:19 Yeah. I mean, there's that also, by the way, if he had picked the inside on that restart last week, he wouldn't have had the problem he had by picking the outside and giving his teammate the chance to pull that move in the first place. Um, nor do I understand why Hendrick is so pissed that chase lost his fifth win of the season. On the same day, he locked up the regular season championship, um, when Larson got his second win and thus gives Hendrick overall more playoff points spread across their whole four team, uh, for our team so that they get stronger going into the playoffs rather than having one dude carry all of the, the weight. I don't don't fully understand that. Um, but I digress a little bit. So I,
Speaker 2 00:17:11 Um, I don't
Speaker 3 00:17:12 Know, those are kind of the guys that always pop off the page to me that play tracks Ricky Stanhouse Jr is always kind of a factor. Bubba Wallace is very good at plate racing.
Speaker 2 00:17:22 Very good. I was gonna ask you like is like, are there any Toyotas that we should consider now? Bubba, there are two that stand out and it's like Bubba, because he is a very good plate racer. Uh, historically he almost won the Daytona 500 this past spring, uh, March. Well, we don't think of him necessarily as a plate racer. You have to imagine he's gonna go on to be a driver that's probably gonna, and Toyota traditionally does this at plate races. They will drop to the rear and just do laps just to make sure that they're all there in the final stage. I can easily see Tru dropping to the rear because this guy absolutely needs a win or he needs Ryan Blaney to have the worst day ever.
Speaker 3 00:18:01 Yeah. He's got an out point Blaney by like 26 points.
Speaker 2 00:18:04 Yeah. So trucks really need to win. So he's not gonna be a guy that's gonna, I, I would be stunned if Tru was trying to run up front, which could work out his favor because if he's running up front, then he can't wreck in the middle of the field. But at the same time, I just feel like he'd want to play it safe, drop to the ear and then gain track position in stage three, whether it's through pitch strategy, what have you. Um, but I feel like betting top Toyota this week on DK sports book, at least it's, it's not all that appealing. Um, there are six drivers in the field in Toyotas they're all six and a half to one or better. The outlier is tie Gibbs who is 11 to one. And
Speaker 3 00:18:45 I don't, don't like,
Speaker 2 00:18:46 Yeah. Super
Speaker 3 00:18:48 Speedways
Speaker 2 00:18:49 Key driver. There's no, there's no point betting Thai Gibbs, 11 to one as top Toyota. Um, there's really nobody in this, in this six driver pool that screams immense value as top driver of the, this brand.
Speaker 3 00:19:02 No, I mean, if I had a lead,
Speaker 2 00:19:07 You have to consider Denny Hamlin.
Speaker 3 00:19:09 Yeah. I mean he won three Daytona, five hundreds. Yeah. He drops back all the time and is always a factor late in races. Um, and by the way, he's close
Speaker 2 00:19:19 To 75, 6 drivers.
Speaker 3 00:19:24 Yeah. I mean he is, he's the favorite Toyota to finish is the top Toyota, um, ahead of the guy he pays to drive, which is Bubba at plus three 50. Um, yeah, I'm kind of with you. There's not a lot of, I'm just not liking the value there for the top a it's only six of them. Right. So it shouldn't be all that only.
Speaker 2 00:19:57 So here's what I think would happen with E K sports book. I think DK realized that they were, they had a massive error with indie road course because with indie road course, there were only seven Toyotas and two of them went off at 101 or better to just finish top Toyota. And when Bubba hit, they realized, okay, we can't have a 100 to one bet in good equipment to just beat six other guys. So I don't think we will ever see super long odds to finish this top Toyota ever again.
Speaker 3 00:20:35 I would agree, but I do think the Chevy ones is kind
Speaker 2 00:20:38 Of, oh, the Chevy in Ford bets. There are some interesting ones.
Speaker 3 00:20:41 Well, right. But like if you look at landing castle, not saying we should bet this, but landing Castle's going off at two 50 to one right now for top Chevy.
Speaker 2 00:20:50 I would bet that
Speaker 3 00:20:52 The next closest guy is Grason at 80 to one. So like what really? Like Landon Castle's finished like top 15 in the last several, uh, plate tracks
Speaker 2 00:21:03 And not chaos and it can happen.
Speaker 3 00:21:06 Yeah. Like, I mean, anything can happen at these races. Like literally we have seen everything happen.
Speaker 2 00:21:15 Ty Dylan was 65 to one for top Chevy. Uh, that got bet down to 40 to one. I still like Cory LA joy, Noah Grason as top Chevy. I'll I might throw a couple bucks at landing castle. If he's going off at two 50 to one,
Speaker 3 00:21:31 He's going off 50 to one.
Speaker 2 00:21:33 Yeah. And just, just, and this is a kind of race where a big rack can easily change that and it could put it in play.
Speaker 3 00:21:42 Is he in the 77 this week?
Speaker 2 00:21:45 Uh, he might be, I haven't looked at the entry list
Speaker 3 00:21:48 Or is he in the, I don't think he's in the 78 BJ McLeod usually loves these races. Um, yeah. Landing Castle's in the 77 first fire, but like landing castle on plate tracks has been pretty solid. Um, for the last, for the last few, I mean he was the guy he
Speaker 2 00:22:13 Overwhelmed significantly, uh, for Daytona earlier this year. And he was a good value player.
Speaker 3 00:22:20 Yeah. He Devi, he very, he ran very well at Daytona earlier this year. Um, now are we gonna unload like a thousand dollars on landing castle to go finish with? No, no,
Speaker 2 00:22:33 That's probably like a couple bucks units.
Speaker 3 00:22:37 Yeah. Like a couple, if you bet, like two bucks and it happens, you turn two bucks into 500.
Speaker 2 00:22:42 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:22:43 Right. Not a bad day. Um, Justin ha going off at 20, if
Speaker 2 00:22:48 You bet be 10,
Speaker 3 00:22:50 I mean short, but if you bet a thousand it's $250,000, but we just hope like, you know, um, Justin Haley going off a 25 to one for top Chevy is very interesting.
Speaker 2 00:23:03 Um,
Speaker 3 00:23:07 Would you rather have Haley at 25 to one is top Chevy or Eric Jones at 18 to one is top Chevy.
Speaker 2 00:23:13 I would probably add Haley. Like if, if I'm endorsing Haley as 20 to one winner endorses 25 on top Chevy for the cup series, because that's, there's an easier path to victory for that.
Speaker 3 00:23:27 True.
Speaker 2 00:23:28 But really the ones that stand out to me in this range are probably Haley Lejo Gregson castle, just as pure values.
Speaker 3 00:23:38 Yeah. Lejo award. The guy almost won at Atlanta mm-hmm <affirmative> yeah. He almost Atlanta until what chase blocked him. Um, which he should have. I mean, that's fine. Not saying it was a bad move, um, but anything can happen. And he personally, like he says on stacking on, on stacking D uh, pennies all the time that they circle the plate tracks is that team shot to get wins between an even playing field.
Speaker 2 00:24:11 Here are LA Joy's results at the last handful of races, uh, finished 14th at the Daytona 500 oh sh Nope. That was Daytona 500, uh, 16th last year in this race. Now granted he did. Um, but he finished ninth at the 2021 day 2,500, uh, two years ago in this race, 21st. Uh, but he's also finished eighth at the 2020 Daytona 500, uh, sixth at the race that Justin Haley won that was shortened in 2019, uh, another top 20 at the 2019. So it's like a little bit of win equity as, as is the case with the super Speedway. But he does has have these standout performances where he can get a top 10, a top 15 and it, this could hit at 51.
Speaker 3 00:25:07 It could, it could very well hit cuz you keep in mind like what tends to happen here, right? Is that manufacturers pit together. So they get caught up in chaos. They tend to wreck out together too, if it happens early enough in the pit cycle. So you could see guys just get, you know, the, the Chevy field or the Ford field get completely obliterated. And then your long shot bet, which you didn't think would hit hits. I mean, hell Michael McDowell at 14 to one is top Ford is attractive. The guy just finishes races at these plate tracks. I mean, it's not, I
Speaker 2 00:25:53 Don't know if I'd like it as much as, uh, I almost, I, I prefer some of the longer ones. Like I think I might go cold Custer at 28 to one, which I know sounds wild or I'd rather go McDowell's teammate Todd Gilland at 61 or here's in Vernon at 61.
Speaker 3 00:26:14 I mean, okay, so now we're talking about, do you want to balance payoff versus actual chance of hitting, right. Obviously the guys with the, with the shorter odds have the better chance of hitting, which is why they're there. But I think Michael, McDonald's a pretty intriguing guy for a DFS and for betting because he just has a very good history at these tracks and he completes a lot of labs. And what does that mean here? It means he's on the track late in races and that's how you get in position to win. And you get in position for top fives and you get in position for top tens and you get in position for top manufacturer. Um, you know, look everybody else in front of him, aside from Chris, I can say has a pretty shaky history at, at these tracks. I mean, Lagano at Daytona specifically, not great. Ryan Blaney has won a plate race. Okay, sure. But he hasn't had the luck on his side in a while. Yes. Austin Crick won the Daytona five, but like, I don't know, is it beginner's luck? Is it that he,
Speaker 2 00:27:33 Well, it's his super Speedway. So there's, there's naturally a little bit of luck into
Speaker 3 00:27:37 It. Well, right. But like he also pinched off Ryan Blaney to win that race cuz Blaney was coming hard. Um, so I don't know you're is like, I feel like, like several of these guys have been as likely to wreck out as they have been to finish up front and that's not the case for McDowell. So that's why McDowell intrigues me cuz I think it actually has a pretty good shot to hit and it still has a pretty nice payoff.
Speaker 2 00:28:09 I think that's gonna be the one that we might disagree on. Um, as far as top tens, not a ton of long odds. However, uh, Corey LA joy is four one, Ty Dylan is four one, um, Harrison Burton's five to one. Todd Gillon is six to one. Is there even want to, into top 10 betting for this race? Or would you just rather bet manufacturers and winners?
Speaker 3 00:28:34 I'd rather bet manufacturers and I don't know. Do they have any like interesting weekly specials? There's not usually very good odds.
Speaker 2 00:28:44 I typically don't look at the weekly specials. I peaked at drivers to win pole position. Um, man, I feel like if I was just gonna give out suggestions for this, I would tell you to follow Ryan Stevens on Twitter.
Speaker 3 00:28:57 I would go with Byron or Bowman to land on pole.
Speaker 2 00:29:03 Yeah. I could see that.
Speaker 3 00:29:05 I mean just front row in like five straight Daytona, 500 and at 10 0 1 for Bowman. That's that's pretty impressive. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:29:19 Just, just to go out and run the fastest lap on the track by himself. Yeah. I could see it.
Speaker 3 00:29:26 I mean like average starting spot over the last 10 plate races, including the two Atlanta races this year, Bowman is, has the fourth best average starting spot at 9.2. And the best one is Larson at 7.6. So he's not exactly far off, right? There's not a whole lot of um,
Speaker 2 00:29:51 So in 2021
Speaker 3 00:29:53 Li Byron
Speaker 2 00:29:54 Started
Speaker 3 00:29:55 Six
Speaker 2 00:29:55 Byron started on the front row in for both Daytona races in 2020, around 2021.
Speaker 3 00:30:03 Yeah. He's also started second, fourth, second. Like he like,
Speaker 2 00:30:10 That's
Speaker 3 00:30:11 A good guy hundred guys show up quick at plate races. Like they, they for single lap speed, they can light the world on fire in these races. Um, yeah, I don't, I don't know why they're 10 to one and 12 to one respectively between Bowman and Byron, but that's very, Bubba's eight to one. That's very interesting.
Speaker 2 00:30:35 I'm not taking Bubba eight
Speaker 3 00:30:36 To one. I'm not, I'm not taking him eight to one. I'm just saying it's interesting. He's that high he's raise tied with Larson Elliot like Larson, Elliot and bub are all eight to one win poll. Oh, where do you go out and say Denny Hamlin 11 to one. I'm not sure those are long enough for me.
Speaker 2 00:31:04 I think my favorite might be William Byron at 12 to one.
Speaker 3 00:31:09 Yeah. I'm not seeing anybody else like, like lights. The, I dunno. I, I mean, I'm not going a long shot,
Speaker 2 00:31:23 Chris. Bush's kind of interesting at 35 to one.
Speaker 3 00:31:26 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:31:27 I don't, I don't hate him or McDowell. Bush's 35 to one. McDowell's 40 to one to win the poll.
Speaker 3 00:31:36 Yeah. I don't necessarily
Speaker 2 00:31:37 Just given what we saw from the duals at Daytona back in February. Um,
Speaker 3 00:31:43 Yeah. Which put him four
Speaker 2 00:31:44 Brad cuz last year is, is always hyping Chris Busher up and yes, like Busher is a good driver. The, this year gotten better. I mean, he is gonna go out, he's gonna run a, a, a lap by himself. All these drivers are. And you know, I could see that car showing up fast for Saturday's race and, and click clenching the bull. So I like probably Byron Busher McDowell.
Speaker 3 00:32:10 Yeah. I'm always here on those I'm with here on those, um, who was on the pole for Daytona earlier this year? The chase,
Speaker 2 00:32:27 Uh Leski no, that they won the duals. I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 00:32:32 Right. So they started third and fourth. Um, Larson looks like it was worsen. I mean Larson and what is
Speaker 2 00:32:44 It? Yeah. Larson on the pole
Speaker 3 00:32:48 Out of the last eight plate races that Larson had. Oh,
Speaker 2 00:32:51 Larson and bone on the front row.
Speaker 3 00:32:53 Larson has started in the last six plate races. Larson started first, fifth, first, 21st, fifth and third. So I dunno, I would still say that Bowman is about as likely and he's got better return as is Bowman or, uh, Byron. So I would take,
Speaker 2 00:33:18 I would Byron the best return
Speaker 3 00:33:21 I would go, Byron Cher, 35 to one is very interesting. That's that's very intriguing. Um, and in terms good, uh, in terms of winter bets, like you're not gonna find like the favorite this week is chase Elliot at 10 to one that's, it's pretty typical at a plate race. Um, then you find a bunch of drivers all about the, um, odds, like there's four or five guys at 13 to one, um, there's like three dudes at 12 to one. Pretty interesting though, to me that, that like they divvy it between 12 to one and 13 to one. What is it really making that percentage difference chance of winning? I don't know. It's Byron actually has longer odds to win than he does to land on the pole.
Speaker 2 00:34:21 Given what we know about the playoff picture, does that impact how likely you are to bet on winners straight up for the cup race? Because for me it was easy to bet winner for the Xfinity race because the Xfinity regular season still has like three or four races to go. So this isn't, this isn't like the final drivers to qualify for the playoff in that race. This is really the last shot. So it's like, we are expecting chaos for guys fighting for, for the win. At the very end, we're gonna see multiple wrecks. We're gonna see a lot of bets blow up in our face. Does that impact how you approach betting this race? And do you maybe just chase the longer odds? Like maybe you go for Chris Busher McDowell, Brad Klowski as a hail married as this, this, this is their one chance to qualify for the championship. 16, do we lay off for Martin tricks? Junior and Ryan bla
Speaker 3 00:35:22 Yeah. Here. I definitely tend to favor the longer odds and kind of bet like a, like more of them than I normally would. Right? Like if I'm normally betting I'm going three or four guys to win, right. And a couple of 'em are gonna be favorites, co favorites kind of short odds, right? One of 'em is gonna be a middling odd kind of guy. And one of 'em will be a long shot that I just think is a missed, just a missed shot there by the sport book. But this weekend I'm probably gonna spread the money around a little bit more and put smaller amounts on more longer shot guys, simply because there's chaos at this race simply because it's the last race before the playoffs. And also I think there's there, there's just missed lines out there. Like I don't understand why Eric Jones, Chris Busher and Michael McDowell are all worse odds than Eric Amar and chase Brisco. Like I don't understand that. I don't understand why Justin Hailey is longer odds than like significantly longer odds than Elmar or Brisco
Speaker 2 00:36:45 Or, well, I can probably explain that. I mean, Hailey has a super speed doing win in the cup series and he's a historically a great plate racer in the Xfinity level, but his one win at the cup series came because he had the right strategy when they suspended the race and then they just didn't restart it.
Speaker 3 00:37:04 Well, I mean, okay, fair enough. But Justin Haley has run eight of the last 10 plate races in the cup series. You wanna take a guess as to what his average finishes in those eight races that does not include his win by the way,
Speaker 2 00:37:24 Does, uh, 14th
Speaker 3 00:37:29 Pretty close 15.1.
Speaker 2 00:37:33 Oh, terrible.
Speaker 3 00:37:34 That's pretty good with a couple of top 10,
Speaker 2 00:37:36 Given what we know about these races, that's pretty good.
Speaker 3 00:37:38 He's got a couple of top tens, two other three other finishes that are 11th, 11th and 12th. So he is got five top 12 finishes in the last eight plate races. And keep in mind that does not include his w at the 2019 Daytona, um, July race.
Speaker 2 00:37:58 All right. So the wind probably what bumps him up to 13th, roughly.
Speaker 3 00:38:03 Maybe I'm not sure what else he did in between. Like, I don't remember what else he did in between those, but this is basically like the last two years of Talladega and Daytona and then Atlanta this year. So again, if we're gonna compare that to like chase Brisco, Justin Haley has in the same amount of races, Justin Haley's finishing position is better with more top tens and more top 12 finishes in the same amount of races. So like,
Speaker 2 00:38:44 Uh, is there anything else you wanted to discuss? I know this is the super Speedway podcast are generally shorter and we're at about 38 39 minutes right now. And this was more of a betting podcast than anything else. Uh, is there anything else you wanted to touch on? Uh, for this weekend we only have two races. The trucks are off for God knows how much longer. Uh <laugh>. They only have five races left in the air and they don't race for another two or three weeks. But is there anything else you wanted to touch on, uh, for this weekend at Daytona? It's gonna be awesome. Like just from a pure racing versus it's still great DFS wise. I'm I'm really just mailing it in just to get the Ironman credit.
Speaker 3 00:39:23 Yeah. I'm kind of with you, right. This is gonna be a weekend to kind of just put in a couple of,
Speaker 2 00:39:28 And I hate saying that, like I don't, I, I know we provide DFS coverage and, and it's like, I don't know, like, I feel bad saying like, Hey, don't play at all. Like I'm, I'm not playing at all. I'm only playing so I can get a buttload of crowns in November, but at the same time, it's like, we try to warn everybody. Like, this is just a exciting, the playoff ramifications for the cup are exciting. If you can bet this race, do it, it's better than, um, I know even some of our subscribers, like they're just playing the 50 cent contest just to get to the, the $1, $2 minimum. And then they're just kind of like going late, like they're smart, you know, they know, they know like the randomness of this track. It's, it's just, it sucks for DFS in my opinion.
Speaker 3 00:40:16 Yeah. Uh, I mean, it's very fun to watch, but yes, it does suck for, um, DFS, I would say, you know, Ooh, Hey you boys in the cup series this week there, Dan, Mr. Hamrick is racing in the 16 car. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:40:31 I saw him. I I've minimal interest.
Speaker 3 00:40:34 There you go. <laugh> why only got you off the, uh, Daniel Henry train? Um, I will say this, I will say in addition to some of the strategy stuff we talked about earlier in the podcast, you know, read through the playbook, I'll have more strategy stuff there. I'll kind of break it down with the graphs and whatnot, the practice to qualifying tables, not gonna show up cuz there's no practice this week. And even if there was it's useless, cuz the only way to judge speed is if you're in the middle of the pack and then that's a pretty terrible way to judge speed. Um, but what I will say is don't go more than 30% on any single driver in your builds. Even if it looks like it's a lock cuz like Denny Hamlin is starting in the back or um, Bubba is starting in the back or why not?
Speaker 3 00:41:27 Even if it looks like a lock, don't go more than 30% on a guy this week. Cuz anything can happen in these races. Right? Anything like Denny in the middle of winning three outta four Daytona, five hundreds got wrecked out doing the exact same strategy that won him the other three races because you get caught up in the wrong place in the wrong time, all the time at this track. And that's what happened. So if you want your lines to have a shot at lasting, don't go more than 30% on a guy. And by the way, don't freak out if like one of your dudes wrecks.
Speaker 2 00:42:09 Yeah, you can still cash. You can still cash.
Speaker 3 00:42:12 Also don't check the standings before the end of the race. <laugh> literally, I will bring this up every single time we talk about these, these tracks, but in the 2021 Daytona 500, I was winning Jack squad on fando going into turn for on the last lap that basically should tell you, yeah, you, you don't have a shot at winning what happened in term four Bradlow and Joey Lagano wrecked each other out and Michael McDowell wound up winning, you know what that did that turned my $0 day into a $2,500 day on fando in literally a half a mile of super Speedway. So yeah, it's gonna take until the checkered flag for you to, it's not like a normal intermediate where Hey, as long as this guy just finishes the race, this is basically what I'm getting, right? This is even when your guys finish, there's still gonna be shifting cuz they could be wrecking across the line to be perfectly honest.
Speaker 2 00:43:26 <laugh> all right. Well pretty thorough. More so betting breakdown then DFS. But as always, we will provide DFS coverage for this race. It's just, we don't know the starting order. There's no practice. It's a high variance race. So be on the lookout for DFS coverage and we'll be in the NASCAR DFS discord this weekend. But Matt as always best of luck to you this weekend and best of luck to the FA nation,
Speaker 3 00:43:54 Best of luck, a nation.
