October 07, 2022


NASCAR DFS Podcast: Bank of America Roval 400

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Bank of America Roval 400
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
NASCAR DFS Podcast: Bank of America Roval 400

Oct 07 2022 | 00:52:49


Show Notes

With just FIVE races left in the 2022 NASCAR season, the playoff picture is heating up ahead of the final road course race of the year! Chase Elliott is locked into the Round of Eight with his win at Talladega. But as the field's best road course racer, what should we expect for Sunday's race? Matt Selz and Dan Malin preview the road course ringers and DFS strategies for Sunday afternoon's race from Charlotte!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? Foundation, Welcome, welcome. Uh, apologies for not making it last week for Talladega, but it's Talladega, uh, for cash games. You stack the back for gps. You mix it up, you throw some darts. Uh, I made one lineup. It was looking actually pretty good through the first two and a half stages. Uh, finished just outside the money, unfortunately, with some late race shuffling. Uh, overall the playoff field or the playoff schedule continues this week. We have the ral. Matt, how's it going? I haven't been able to catch much, um, cup racing the last couple of weeks just because when I was on vacation, uh, another day I was working in just NFL just seems to dominate every TV at the bar. Uh, but I am mostly excited for the role. I do love getting a lot of DFS exposure, uh, during road courses. Would you agree? Speaker 3 00:01:13 Uh, yeah. I, I really like this, this track. I'm glad that it has worked out. I remember when everybody was like questioning why Charlotte would, would, I don't know, do this to its track. And then it worked phenomenally the first year and then the second year, was it the second year we got the famous chase, uh, burnout, Speaker 2 00:01:35 I believe. So Speaker 3 00:01:36 2019 and after the hall at the start of stage three and then came back and won it and then did the gladiator burnout that I to call it. Um, yeah, I, I really, I really enjoy this race. It's actually on NBC this week, so don't have to go streaming it on USA or you know, go find it on an app somewhere. It's actually on, uh, basic cable this week. So that's a bonus. Imagine that. Yeah, I'm with you on Talladega. I mean obviously did the solo pod last week due to scheduling stuff. Um, and then it was basically, you know, dart throws cuz it's Talladega this weekend. I don't know, do you think it's gonna be another dart throw weekend? Given what we've seen on the Roal style tracks this year? Speaker 2 00:02:26 Um, I don't know, like just the nature of Talladega Daytona and now Atlanta. It's just, I go into those races, um, like every week not so much really caring about where drivers start. I mean if that does play an influence when I start like line construction. But honestly like I do want like leverage plays. I love playing Layman Castle at Super Speedways when he is in the cuff series. He's always under like 10% owned. I always feel like he pays off in some form or fashion. Like he's always starting outside the top 30. He's got top 20 upside, you know, like it and no one ever plays him just because, you know, like they don't really just understand like what happens at Talladega and he'll ride around the back most of the time just move up just by avoiding the wreck. Um, but again, you know, I don't, I haven't seen as many RAL races as probably you have. Granted there's only been like a handful, uh, but I didn't really get into like the DFS aspect of NASCAR until a few years ago. Um, so I don't really think that there's as much variance. Um, obviously with a road course like indie as we've seen the last two years, there's a ton of variance. So I, Speaker 3 00:03:34 Well it's kind of what I was thinking is like if you look back at like the actual road races this year, right there, there hasn't been that much chaos at the actual road races. Yeah. But if you look at the Roal style, um, road races. Speaker 2 00:03:53 Oh okay. So, and indie kind of plays into that, Speaker 3 00:03:55 Right? Because even though it's not like super high banked, it's still a road course built off of an oval. Right. Um, whereas like Sonoma was pretty standard, Coda was pretty standard. Speaker 2 00:04:07 Road America is a snooze fest. Speaker 3 00:04:10 Yes. Um, Walkins Glen do a degree was barely standard. So I don't know. You know, we, we do see, I will say that if there is weather in the forecast, which I haven't double checked for Charlotte yet, we will see rain tires on these cars. Speaker 2 00:04:26 What do Speaker 3 00:04:27 Do? And last year <laugh> it was nuts with the rain tires on these cars. Um, a year or two ago, um, it was, it was chaos. So I think I'm gonna build a, a, you know, one for a standard rotary and then you know, I'm gonna build some lineups for a standard rotary and then some boring case chaos kind of happens and there's a lot of shuffling um, that can happen. But did you know, speaking of that, did are you changing your strategy would chase this week? Cuz he's so good on road courses and he's one here twice, Boy, either you a Speaker 2 00:05:14 Road course this year. Speaker 3 00:05:16 No, I don't think so. Did he win Walkins Glen? Speaker 2 00:05:24 Oh my god, that wasn't even that long ago. Speaker 3 00:05:26 Yeah, I, I can't, I'm spacing now but I um, um, Speaker 2 00:05:33 Reddick when Walkins Glen Speaker 3 00:05:34 Radio, What was Speaker 2 00:05:36 That? I know Redick won two road courses. I know one of them was Rhode America, Speaker 3 00:05:43 Right? Speaker 2 00:05:45 Uh, Chase finished fourth at Watkins Glen Kyle Larson won Wains Speaker 3 00:05:49 Glen. There you go. So Jace is not one of this year, uh, cuz you've had Redick win two Chastain is one one right. As far as one. Um, so I don't know, but I was just saying like he got the win at Talladega last weekend, so now he is locked into the round of aid. Do we think that he's trying to make everybody else point in and increase his points lead? Or is he just starting to prep for what should be a fairly basic round in the round of eight? Speaker 2 00:06:37 Uh, I still think that there's some weight equity with him. I mean unless I checked on drafting sports book, he was I think a five to one favorite to win and Redick I think was right behind him at uh, seven or six to one. Um, I mean you bring up a really good point. I don't like operating under the mindset that, you know, these guys go into cruise control when they lock in their spot at their spot in the next round. Especially when he's gone out here in one, twice in the last three years. Um, I'll pay attention to his commentary and what he's saying and essentially how the car looks in practice and qualifying and, and see what the case is. I find it, I am going to operate as if I think that he's, you know, gonna be running out there for a top five and a win. Speaker 3 00:07:24 Yeah. I would say I don't think he's gonna be on cruise control. It's hard to turn it off when it's your specialty. Mm-hmm <affirmative> and making it so that everybody else has to point in is certainly an advantage. Um, but I do think that that the round of eight is a very interesting setup for these because it's basically the most normal round we have in the playoffs. Cuz you get vacants, you get Homestead and you get Martinsville. Speaker 2 00:07:50 Three great tracks though. Speaker 3 00:07:52 Yes. Phenomenal racing and we're gonna see a whole lot of uh, Bump and runs happen in Martinsville <laugh> when people absolutely need the last spot. But I will say that, you know, forcing people to have to point their way in on a track, they're probably not great at hit the Ral is probably Jay Elliott's best strategy at this point. Speaker 2 00:08:20 Uh, let's, uh, you wanna just dive into some news really quick? I mean we briefly alluded to the Kevin Hark uh, penalty. He's already out of the playoffs but it's a sizeable monetary uh, fine. What was the issue with the car last week that they found in post race tech? Speaker 3 00:08:34 Uh, the deck lid was, apparently the rear deck lid was apparently messed up. I'm not entirely sure how it was changed, but that is a part that NASCAR gives them that they're not allowed to change at all. So, uh, Kevin Har was a surprise, surprise, uh, that was his reaction on Twitter cuz you know, he is been all over the governing body the last two weeks for safety stuff. Um, but I also don't think they're gonna target like him specifically cuz he's already outta the playoffs. Um, so I don't know if they were gonna target anybody. I would think they would target Denny who basically said there needs to be completely total, totally new leadership from top to bottom in nascar. Um, but he didn't have a problem at Talladega so, um, you know, we'll, we'll see. I think the bigger news is that Rodney Childers's is suspended for four weeks. Um, so basically the rest of the season to Phoenix basically. Um, and it was pretty hefty. Fine. We'll we'll see. I have not heard any news about William Byron's appeal. Have you seen anything about Speaker 2 00:09:52 No, I, I occasionally see PS jump in and just confirm like when like, uh, he'll say something like, William Byron's appeal will not be heard this week. I haven't really heard anything official about that either. Um, I am curious to hear like what you have to think about the safety of the car. That's obviously been a hot topic as you were just kind of talking about before, but like here we are this late in the season and obviously like the impact and the Rex have taken a toll. Like we, you know, we had, we had two playoff drivers, you know Kurt Bush is is out with a concussion. Alex Bowman is out once again. Noah Resons gonna be in the 48 for him. Speaker 3 00:10:32 Cody is Speaker 2 00:10:32 That kind of just stealing the luster from, you know, the next gen cars first season and how this season is coming to an end when you have two full-time drivers, two notable and recognizable guys and they're just not racing? Speaker 3 00:10:43 Yeah, it definitely steals the luster. Don't wanna forget Cody, we who's also not in the car this week cuz it's his ankle is not, uh, in a place to deal with a road course. Um, but you know, specifically with, I know that Cody wears hit was massive and Kurt Bush's hit was massive. The Bowman one to me is way more interesting because he basically tapped the back of the car against the wall. Like it's, it's not what you would consider to be a major damage and then you watch his head inside the car and it just bobs all over the place. So yeah, something in that car is too stiff is what I think it comes down to. Like whether the floor is, is too stiff or the diffuser or something, they're, they are shifting all of the forces to the driver rather than dissipating the forces away from the car like the previous one did. Speaker 3 00:11:42 So I think there's gonna be a pretty big redo for next year, I would assume. Um, for the most part I think the tire issue has been basically solved. I think Good Year kept harping on the fact that it was the team setting the tires too low. Um, they were doing it because, you know, aside from Texas, um, we haven't really had that many tire issues in the second half of the season really. Um, so I, I don't know. I mean I'm, I'm on board with Harvey and Hamlin to a degree that safety was not listened to. The drivers brought this up, it tests in December and January for the next gen car and it seems like they were ignored. Not really anything you're gonna do about it with five races to go in the season. Um, but it is a shame that Kurt Bush is basically, I would assume is probably gonna end his career at this point. Um, and Alex Bowman, I mean I'm glad they're taking concussions seriously, but it, it's definitely not great that it's basically knock two drivers out of the playoffs for something that's not really their fault. Speaker 2 00:13:03 Uh, last bit of news from the past week. AJ Almond der is gonna be back in the Cup series full time. I'm actually curious like, cuz I know he event, he retired a few years ago, came back on a part-time schedule with colleague just doing a handful of races. I think that was in 2020, came back full time in 2021, obviously did another full time season at Xfinity in 2022. I am surprised, like d do you think that a full-time opportunity at the cup level was somewhat pushed on him by colleague? Cause for me it seemed like he liked the schedule with Xfinity because Xfinity doesn't run every weekend like Cup does. You know, there are sporadic weeks off, um, a veteran like him, it allows him more time to be with his family. Um, so I I I was a little surprised because it seemed like he was genuinely happy just running the Xfinity schedule. Speaker 3 00:13:53 Yeah, I was a little, I was a little surprised too for colleague. It makes a lot of sense because if you think about it, the 31 car was manned full time by Justin Haley this year. Right? That's not changing next year. Nor should it. Justin Haley's had a pretty solid season in that car. Um, the 16 car though, they had a pretty big, cuz keep in mind it was, it was three different drivers that were in the 16 car this year, right? It was Almond Dinger, it was Noah Grason and it was a little bit of Daniel Hemrick. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. Well Grayson's got a full time ride in the 42 next year. Hemrick, I don't think they want any parts of him in the Cup series again cuz didn't do, he hasn't done anything to prove that frankly he should stick in the Xfinity series either, but whatever. Um, so I think for them it is just easier to put dinner in the car and get an open ride to keep developing talent in the Xfinity series. Cause they only have the one, Do they have the one car in the Xfinity series or do they have two cars in the Xfinity Series? Speaker 2 00:15:04 I'm sorry, you kind of broke up right there. Speaker 3 00:15:06 Oh, I was saying do they have one car in the Xfinity series or two? They Speaker 2 00:15:10 Have three. Speaker 3 00:15:11 They have three, Okay. Yeah. Um, so yeah, I'm, I'm not sure what the status like are the other two full time next year. Speaker 2 00:15:21 Uh, I don't know the status of Castle or Hamrick. I, I'm imagining that they'll both be back in their cars. I know Chandler Smith is getting bumped up from trucks, switching from TRD and joining Chevy and Cig, which is a nice promotion for him. He deserves it. Speaker 3 00:15:37 It's definitely a nice promotion for him going to this full time. So I don't know, maybe they sweetened the deal a little bit for him, but I'm kind of with you like I was kind of surprised that he came back full time to the Cup series knowing that there's one off weekend next year for the Cups for the Cup Cars. One Father's Day weekend is the only off weekend again for a Cup series. So I'm with you. I was kind of surprised. Speaker 2 00:16:05 Uh, I will say I'm pretty excited. Uh, I mean granted for dfs I think that next year Xfinity is going to be as high variance is ever just with so much youth in the series. But you know, it's nice to get some fresh faces. Fresh faces and good equipment. You know, I've liked what we've seen from RCR with Sheldon Creed in Austin Hill. Um, I don't really know what Jgr is gonna do, but I would like to see John Hunter Neek at one of the Jgr cars. Um, either vacated by Brandon Jones, who's moving over to jrm or Ty Gibbs who's gonna probably make the jump to Cup. Um, Speaker 3 00:16:42 Yeah. Do we know that that's a fan comp play at this point? Speaker 2 00:16:46 Like that Ty Gibbs is going to cup? Speaker 3 00:16:48 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:16:49 Um, Speaker 3 00:16:51 Or do we, I would say it's Speaker 2 00:16:52 Probably 96% likely. Speaker 3 00:16:54 Do we think that is Pit Road chicanery against there? And um, Ty Gibbs bumping Eric Jones under caution twice is kind of making him rethink Speaker 2 00:17:06 Well, did they ever punish him for that? A they're talking to, Speaker 3 00:17:11 They punished him for pit road, sort of they find him, which obviously he's not going to pay. He's not. And then they gave it owner points because you can't give him driver points cause he doesn't qualify for driver points. So they took away owner points for a car that wasn't even in the playoffs to begin with on the owner's side. So not really a penalty to be, to be honest. Speaker 2 00:17:37 All right, let's dig in. Let's start talking about the rule. Uh, two races this weekend we get Xfinity and Cup Saturday and Sunday. The trucks are off this week. The trucks only have like two races left in the season. Speaker 3 00:17:48 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:17:49 Um, Xfinity runs Friday afternoon, I believe practice and qualifying is Saturday morning. So I will have a preliminary write up just highlighting the road course drivers. Uh, that'll be available Saturday morning. I'll write that up Friday night. Uh, and then there will be updates following practice and qualifying. Uh, Matt, I'm guessing cut playbook will be up Saturday night into Sunday morning. Speaker 3 00:18:11 Uh, cut playbook should be up like Saturday afternoon probably. Nice. Um, I will get a jump on it. I don't know, Thursday, Friday, <laugh> somewhere in there depending on how the football schedule and what else breaks on the site. Um, so oh, and NHL I think starts Friday, so I may have to do a little bit of stuff with the NHL tools. Um, but yeah, I will have the, the playbook and projections and everything up Saturday afternoon, um, into Saturday like dinnertime. And then the cup race is 2:00 PM Eastern on Sunday on nbc. So they're going straight up against, uh, the middle of NFL Sunday <laugh>. Um, so that should be, that should be interesting. We'll see what the ratings look like. Uh, F1 is also this weekend, um, for those of us that, that action, what, where Speaker 2 00:19:08 They at Speaker 3 00:19:09 This week? Uh, Japan. Oh. Which means the race happens at like one o'clock in the morning, East Coast time, Sunday morning. I don't know. It's very early. Um, everything is basically overnight for us. Um, so I will have a playbook out for that one. It probably will not be out as soon as practice and qualifying and, because let's face it, it's gonna end at like three o'clock in the morning. Uh, my time <laugh> on Saturday morning. So, uh, but it will be up, it will be up relatively early Saturday, so you should have a full day Saturday there to look at it if you are interested, uh, in playing that. So yeah, that's kind of the content schedule. Speaker 2 00:19:56 Cool. Uh, alright, talking the Ral, uh, Chevys I believe have won every single road course this year. As we highlighted earlier. Um, race winning manufacturer Chevrolet's minus one 50. Speaker 3 00:20:08 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:20:10 What's that? Speaker 3 00:20:11 <laugh>. I said, Gee, I wonder why Speaker 2 00:20:13 Uh, Ford is plus two 30 Toyota is plus 400. Is there any sense embedding a Ford or Toyota? Are we pretty confident that it'll once again be a Chevy in Victory Lane? Speaker 3 00:20:23 Um, I'm pretty confident it'll be a Chevy, but I could see, I mean, I could see scenarios in which a Toyota or a Ford would win. Obviously you have higher odds with Ford simply cuz there's more of them on the track. Um, but you know, I could see like Blaney or Cindrich certainly, um, you know, showing up. McDowell's a sneaky play for Ford. Cold Custer by the way, has been very good at road courses, uh, this year. If, if people haven't been paying attention, uh, he also was very good at the Rvo last year, before he had a late race incident. Would Speaker 2 00:21:15 You take Custer at plus three 50 for top 10? Speaker 3 00:21:19 Yeah, I probably would, probably would. Speaker 2 00:21:25 He's like the last driver you get at like three and a half to one because he's plus three 50. And this is Draft King sports book and then it jumps, uh, to plus 800 for Harrison Burton, Todd Gilland, Elmar Hailey, plus 1500 for Steadhouse. Ty Dylan. Uh, and then we're assuming you are gonna be the back markers. Speaker 3 00:21:46 Yeah, I mean, look, Coalers run here twice. He's got a ninth place finish and an 18th place finish. But the 18th place finish, he spun late but was running ninth at the time. So he's clearly capable of finishing top 10 here. He's been pretty good at road courses this year. Uh, if memory serves, uh, for as much as we wanna rag on cold Custer normally, um, he's, he's actually been pretty good at, at road races. Um, obviously the Brickyard was nuts, but he did move up from 24th to ninth at the Brickyard, um, Road America 15th place started 10th. Um, so, you know, he's, he's had some successes here on road courses this year. Speaker 2 00:22:38 All right. Uh, we talked about Chase Elliot at the beginning of the podcast. Chase Elliot, Tyler Redick, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, the four drivers over 10,000 on Draft Kings. Um, I'm gonna play a mixture of the first three. I don't know how much, uh, exposure I want to Denny Hamlin for this race, but I feel like I probably end up being heaviest on Tyler Retic. He's out of the playoffs, but obviously as we've seen, um, he has plenty to race for. He's still gonna be wanting to collect wins, uh, if he wins this weekend. I don't even think that this would be his last one in the season with Miami still on the schedule. Um, who do you like most at 10 K? Speaker 3 00:23:15 I'm, I'm right there with ya. It's those three Hamlin's been okay here. Um, but at that price I need better than, okay, I need a guy who can, who has a legit shot of winning. And I just don't think of Denny Hamlin as a guy with a shot of winning in a road course. Like I think of him as a guy who can finish solidly, but again, at ten one I need you, if you're gonna finish solidly, you better suck at qualifying and then you become chalk because everybody expects you to finish well and get them the pd. So I'm, I'm with you. I'm probably even between Chase and Redick there. And then I think Larson's kind of the sneaky guy over 10 K. Okay. Of those three, Speaker 2 00:24:03 Uh, in the nine K range, we do have six drivers. William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Joey Lagano, obviously we have a pair of Penske drivers. AJ Almond der Noted Road Course Ringer, um, hasn't won this year. Well he is actually won plenty of road courses in the Xfinity series. Yes. Um, did win. I think it was Indy last year for the Cup series and their inaugural race, which was a mess. Christopher Bell is a pretty good bro racer as first career win in the Cup series came at the Daytona work course. And then we have Ross Chestain at nine grand whose price has been falling drastically, but he's been okay. The last handful of races, he's been four 13th, sixth and seventh last week he did end up leaving 36 laps, but never count on that for a super speedway. Uh, is Ross Chas saying earning his way back into our good graces did win a road course earlier this year? Speaker 3 00:24:58 Yeah, I think, I think he may actually be playable at, at this point, at 9,000. Um, look, he's had three top seven finishes in the last four races. Um, obviously one of those was Talladega, but hey, he started six and finished four. So he held his own at Talladega. Um, he's Speaker 2 00:25:21 15 to one to win. I don't hate it. Speaker 3 00:25:25 I don't hate it either. The fact that he's won a road course this year, he finished fourth of Road America. Um, you know, he, he's, he's done well. I will say this track is not really comparable to any of the other road courses, but it, you can, like when I say that, obviously the, the driving style is similar but we can't, like I can't go, Well the Roal is similar to Coda cuz it's, it's not right. They're all, each road is is different. This one's not even technically a road course. It's like a hybrid, but you know, we're, we're still basing, um, Speaker 2 00:26:09 If, I guess the argument you could make for Ross Chestain is that he's won a road course this year and at the Coke 600 he led over 150 laps with 56 fastest laps. Speaker 3 00:26:19 Yes. Speaker 2 00:26:19 So if you, if you take that and then you mix in the road course success, it makes sense that he could do well here. Speaker 3 00:26:26 Yeah. Now analogy, Speaker 2 00:26:28 I Speaker 3 00:26:28 Know here's my question though is it's gonna turn into like a har chase situation from last year Speaker 2 00:26:35 Between him and Hamlin or I mean between Speaker 3 00:26:37 Him, everybody that Speaker 2 00:26:39 <laugh>, Speaker 3 00:26:40 Which is like half the field at this point. Like that's my only concern is this seems to be a place where guys try to target you cuz there's multiple ways to, um, take somebody out here. Although Harve peed himself and ran himself into the wall last year when trying to take out Chase Elliott. But, um, that's my only hesitation with Chestain is it's getting to the point in the playoffs where we may start, you know, writing those checks to <laugh> to pay him back. Speaker 2 00:27:18 Uh, what's the approach with AJ Alman digger this week? Uh, I know it might boil down to really where he qualifies. Uh, Speaker 3 00:27:24 Play of Speaker 2 00:27:26 Finish seventh at Bristol, second at Watkins Glen seventh at the, uh, at Indie. I mean, he is only run three races since the end of July. Um, that's a pretty good floor. Like I've, I've tried to afford Speaker 3 00:27:39 Up no practice at Gateway and finish top 10, the guys are racer now we're gonna put him on a track where he is run well previously in a car that actually runs Speaker 2 00:27:54 Well. I think that he's won every race in the Xfinity series at the Rowville. Speaker 3 00:27:58 I I think, I think you're right. That rings, that rings relatively true. Um, Speaker 2 00:28:06 Oh my God. <laugh>. Yeah. Uh, so since 2019 in 20 19, 20 20 and 2021, he won all three races in the Xfinity series at the Ral with a driver rating of at least one 30 in every single race. And he led at least 10 laps in each race. 20 he led at least 22 of the three. Speaker 3 00:28:28 Yeah. And he finished seventh in his first race in the Ral in the Cup series. Yeah, it's a j Alman der you play him on a road course. <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:28:37 All right, let's dip down to the AK Ranch. Was there anyone else you wanted to touch on? Byron Blaney? Lagano, I Meano, I don't really know. Speaker 3 00:28:46 I dunno. I mean Blaney obviously won here as we said maybe before, before recording. He accidentally won when Jimmy jump in took out Martin Tru X in the final corner in the inaugural roll war race. Um, Byron is a sneaky good road racer I will say. Um, and he's got that point penalty thing kind of still hanging over him, right? Like he could be in or he could be out. Nobody really knows cuz he's got the 25 point penalty kinda hanging over him. So, uh, you know, clearly my favorite is Almond Dinger in this range. Um, I Speaker 2 00:29:30 Think it's also worth noting for Byron that he's finished top 12 in all five playoff races. Speaker 3 00:29:34 There you go. Um, I think Chastain is a very good play. Um, Christopher Bell is an interesting guy. I I don't know what to make of him Right, right now. Speaker 2 00:29:52 See I was gonna touch on uh, him a little bit in the end of the podcast when we talk a little bit of strategy. Speaker 3 00:30:00 Okay, well we can save that till then. Speaker 2 00:30:02 Sure. Um, alright, we'll dip into the AK range. Not a lot. Well actually there's, okay, we can talk. There's five drivers in the a k range. Marro Junior is 8,800 Austin Cindrich 86, Daniel Sws, 85, Chase Brisco 83 and Kyle Bush 8,100. My goodness. I mean it's almost as if like, uh, Draft Kings is just mailing it, mailing it in with his pricing as he is this season because he has finished outside 20th or worst in five straight races. Now granted two of those were actually, uh, he was 10th at Daytona at the end of this season, but since the started he finished 30th, 26th, 34th. 36th and 20th. Cool. Speaker 3 00:30:51 That's not a great run Speaker 2 00:30:53 <laugh>. Totally. Speaker 3 00:30:54 This is easily the cheapest he's been. That includes the Bush Light clash at the Coliseum when he was um, I mean well he was free there cuz nobody, they didn't have any pricing but um, the Daytona duals is the next cheapest. He was at 9,200 bucks. Uh, so that's an exhibition race you had to go, you had to go to go find his cheapest price. Um, yeah man, I Jesus they knocked $1,800 off of him since last week. Um, I can't blame Speaker 2 00:31:29 He have two top fives here. Speaker 3 00:31:31 I can't blame him, but I also like can't not blame at that price. Yeah. Cause it's still Kyle Bush and it's still the 18 team and if he figures it out he can absolutely be a threat to win. Like, but maybe they know something that like, I don't know, just part of me is like, well it feels like a trap play so don't do it. And then part of me is like, it feels like a trap play so you gotta step into the trap to try to beat 'em at their own game. Speaker 2 00:32:00 Oh, I think I gave you, I think I gave you Kurt's numbers at the Rob. Speaker 3 00:32:05 Did we give Kurt's? What has Kyle's been looking? Let's see, what is Kyle Bush done? You Speaker 2 00:32:11 Average finished of 23.7 Speaker 3 00:32:13 At the Yeah you did. Yeah, Kurt's got too too tough. Uh, Speaker 2 00:32:18 Kyle finished top five here last year, but outside of that he finished outside the top 25 in the news races with Speaker 3 00:32:25 Outside the top 30. He had 32, 37, 30 and fourth. Yeah. Uh, that's dicey man. That's <laugh>. Um, but all, what are we doing with true X though? To, to stick with the Toyota theme here. Speaker 2 00:32:42 You know, I don't know man. Like, so there was the narrative earlier in the year that, you know, the Toyotas were qualifying really well on these road courses, but then they would go out and they would just on Sunday and they would just run a completely like, just an absolute dumpster fire race. Like remember Son Sonoma when everyone was Speaker 3 00:32:59 Oh yeah. I thought he was a free play at Sonoma and he just sucked. Speaker 2 00:33:05 Yeah, it's just very, he's another guy that it's hard to get excited about but I mean the price is great and he still has that pedigree of being a great road horse driver. Like prior to 2021, you know the class of the road, the road ringers in the Cup series was Chase Elliot and Martin Tru Jr. And Kyle Larson came in, won a handful of races last year. Tyler Redick won two road courses this year we've seen Track House get two wins. And so it's almost like Trek just hasn't been on anybody's radar and not in the playoff picture. Hasn't want a race this year. It's just, it's just been a heartbreaking season for him. Maybe you can turn it around here. I uh, I have a very difficult time getting excited about the Toyotas this week. Speaker 3 00:33:48 Yeah. You realize that Trix is finishes and the playoffs have been terrible too. Mm-hmm <affirmative> like 31 at 31st at Darlington, fifth at um, Hollywood Casino. So Kansas, uh, 36th at Bristol, 34th at Texas and 26th at Talladega. Speaker 2 00:34:17 Seventh. Seventh and 29th of the Speaker 3 00:34:20 Yeah. And Rob has not been kind of him Austin Crick though. I'm gonna play him simply cuz that guy can figure out any road course he's on. Speaker 2 00:34:35 How's he done this year on them? Speaker 3 00:34:38 Um, well he was the only dude who could pass anybody at Sonoma Speaker 2 00:34:42 Fair Speaker 3 00:34:43 Started 25th, finished fifth on. Speaker 2 00:34:45 Yeah, I do remember that. Yeah. Good call Speaker 3 00:34:47 He'd never raced on before in competition. Yeah. And somehow figured out a way to pass people. He finished second, he started second and finished second at Indy. Um, so can't really say that the craziness had an effect on that because he started, he finished where he started now he didn't lead any laps. Um, but I'll take a top two finish. He ran solidly at the Glen, not not great. Um, Coda Coda, he pulled off a top eight started 10th, finished eighth. So I don't really understand why a guy who got his entire start in racing in Open Wheel is this cheap. Speaker 2 00:35:37 Right Matt? I can hear your dog in the Speaker 3 00:35:40 Back. Yes, my dog is snoring Speaker 2 00:35:42 <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:35:44 Um, it is what it is. My dog just snores so we'll just keep rolling like nothing's going on <laugh>. Um, and yes, I'm aware that he has not raced on the Roble in the Cup series, but he had never raised at Sonoma and still figured out how to pass 20 people. Speaker 2 00:36:04 Yeah, I guess we can't really hold him, hold it against him that he didn't have any winds on the Ral Xfinity since AJ Alman Bs sleeping on wall, Speaker 3 00:36:11 I mean, yeah. Speaker 2 00:36:11 Um, you wanna dip into the seven K ring so there's some interesting price. Yeah. Kevin Hark, uh, first off the massive penalty, 7,900. This, uh, this, this would be a, I don't know, this track is probably haunting him from a, a year ago, but he's 7,900. Chris Busher is 7,800 no racks and in the 48 so good equipment and it's a Chevy and they've dominated road courses this year. Uh, he is 7,600 Eric Jones, 7,400 Michael McDowell with 13 top tens uh, career year for him. Really it's been phenomenal even though he did win Daytona last year. Uh, he is also a noted road course specialist, uh, credit to Matt for uh, really driving that narrative home for the last few years. Uh, Bubble Wallace had a top five at uh, Indie Road course earlier this year. He's openly said he doesn't really like road courses and Brad Klowski is seven K so obviously we have quite a few names to discuss in this range. Who sticks out? I'm guessing it's probably gonna be Michael McDowell's an obvious one. Bubble Wallace is probably an easy fade. Yeah, like Chris Busher could be sneaky. Speaker 3 00:37:17 Uh, Chris Bush's. Yeah, I mean do we all remember what happened at Sonoma? Cuz that guy was phenomenal there. Um, and then Brad Klowski called him the most underrated driver in the garage, uh, which Speaker 2 00:37:29 Won Bristol. Speaker 3 00:37:31 I mean, he did win Bristol and it's also not shocking that Klowski, the guy that pays his paycheck Speaker 2 00:37:39 Is his driver up. Speaker 3 00:37:40 Um, but you know, Bush's had 11 top tens this year, so that's pretty impressive. Um, yeah, Michael McDowell was probably the easy one in here given his history on open wheel tracks. He's also going close to winning a couple of road races, um, at the ral he's been hit or miss. So we've got, you know, couple of finishes like 12th and 16th and then one 32nd place finish. So not, not ideal. Busher on the other hand finish third here a year ago, by the way. And then everything else has been 20th or better. So that's, that's reasonably, he's hollered for a guy in this range. I don't know what to do with Kevin Harvick. I don't know if pissed off Harvick is, is gonna show up and just ruin everybody's day. Um, it's hard to peg him at this point. The last time that he got caught for cheating, he came back and dominated the next race and then pointed to the rear window like, hey man, it's, it's fixed now. And I still kicked your rear end. Um, that may happen this week. He's not usually thought of as a great road racer, but he does have three top 11 finishes here. So I don't know. Speaker 2 00:39:03 Uh, Joe Bra in the 48, uh, in the Xfinity Series, not the most elite numbers. There were obviously better drivers, uh, ranging from AJ Almond, d Austin Crick, even Ty gives scored warrants. Uh, but strangely enough this has been his best road course in the Xfinity series. He's finished sixth last year, second in 2020 and fifth in 2019. And he did lead 16 laps in the 2020 race. Um, so if you're looking to buy into a cheap driver in really good equipment, uh, no Gregson does work some consideration and we're just completely off Bubba, unless he's starting dead last, Speaker 3 00:39:45 Uh, hello man, I made of him, even if he's starting last, I he hates road courses like his commented numerous times that he is not a fan of road courses at all. Um, so I mean I know that you hit the hit that big ass bet on him in Indie, but let's face it, he needed 17 other cars to wreck out for that bet to hit. So Speaker 2 00:40:12 Yeah, I'm looking at his, aside from indie his road, his road results have been Speaker 3 00:40:19 Terrible Speaker 2 00:40:19 Of course this year. Yeah, they've been really bad. Speaker 3 00:40:21 Like really bad, Speaker 2 00:40:23 Right? Easy fade. If he's starting it's probably a really good fade in gps if he's, if you don't plan starting from the rear cuz see him getting like 20 to 25 month Speaker 3 00:40:32 Percent. I mean he started 23rd at Coda and still managed to finish 38th, finished 20, he started 27th at Sonoma and finished 36th. Like yes, he got a top five at Indy, but again, he needed all 16 cars in front of him to wreck out for that to happen. Finish started 23rd at Walkins Glen and finish 35th. So, you know, I know some of these things have been equipment related, uh, but not all of 'em. And at some point you've gotta wonder does the equipment just suck? So yeah, he's finished like in the thirties basically every road brace except for Indie Road. Speaker 2 00:41:24 Uh, let's dip into the six K range where we start to look first for our value plays. You already touched on coal Custer. If you want to elaborate, I will let you. Uh, but we have Austin di at 6,900. Probably not a nice play this week unless he's starting Speaker 3 00:41:39 Last. He's not, he's not usually a very good road racer. Speaker 2 00:41:42 Uh, Custer's 67, Ty Gibbs is 65, hasn't looked great the last few playoff races. Uh, 37th last week, uh, 20th, 35th, 34th, top 15 at Darlington. Uh, it's been an adjustment for him. Uh, I wonder, I do wonder if he's a little burnt out cuz he's never really had a schedule like this. You know, he's running full time in Xfinity Speaker 3 00:42:06 To turned 20 years old. Speaker 2 00:42:07 Yeah. And he's like now finishing the season for in Kurt Bo's car. So he is, he is racing twice every weekend. Um, Eric Aro is 64. Justin Haley, 62 Ricky Stent house is $6,000 is cold. Custer your clear cut favorite out of this range? Speaker 3 00:42:26 Yeah, probably. I mean if you want to go super cheap, um, there are kind of some interesting, um, guys like Connor Daily might be an interesting guy to just take a stab at in gpp. Speaker 2 00:42:47 He runs what? Indie car full time? Speaker 3 00:42:49 Yeah, so he, he might be, Now the equipment sucks, right? It's money team racing. Um, it's trash, Speaker 3 00:43:01 It's, it's not great, but as long as he doesn't have to pit, he may make up spots. Um, I dunno Joey hand is, I mean I know the results haven't necessarily been there for him, but I feel like he's run better than those results bear out it road courses. Um, but yeah, I mean other than that Justin Haley maybe his teammates Ajman der so maybe he helps with setup on on the car. Um, but yeah, I mean it cold Coster has been sneaky, sneaky good at road races, um, this year. And if the finishes haven't always born out, the running position has been reasonably good. He also, if you look at like true, true speed metrics, like green flag speeds and whatnot on road courses, he's top 12 in GreenLake speed this year on road courses. Um, so the speed has clearly been there. We just need to finishes to, to kind of cooperate with us here. Speaker 2 00:44:15 Now I know I alluded to, uh, some strategy talk when we're kind of touching on Christopher Bell. My whole point, and this can apply to almost any driver, is that when we're talking road courses, you know, we've mentioned numerous times that there's fewer laps. I don't know how many laps there are for this race. I'm guessing 80, 90, is it over a hundred? Speaker 3 00:44:39 Uh, let me check for you here. Speaker 2 00:44:42 Either way. Uh, Speaker 3 00:44:43 400 race, I can't remember how many miles the uh, the actual track, Speaker 2 00:44:49 I thought it was like three and a half or 3.6 miles. But my point is that, you know, if you're playing cash games or gpp, you know, you don't need to lean on the dominated points too much. It's perfectly fine if you do build with one dominator and it also helps if they get a top 10 finish so they're not killing you too much by going backwards if they aren't leading laps. Speaker 3 00:45:11 Yeah. Uh, there's 109 for 109 laps. It's 252 miles, the 400 and the number is kilometers. Speaker 2 00:45:21 Okay? So it's Speaker 3 00:45:23 109 lap, Speaker 2 00:45:25 75 do points or so. But my point is like take the PD where it's available to you. If we do get, you know, a popular guy or, or an elite driver in great equipment and they're starting towards the rear, whether with they just don't post a qualifying lab or if they just get loose and don't sustain any damage in cash games, I'm not afraid to necessarily eat that chalk and just take the PD where it's available because we do ultimately do need, you know, we do need drivers finishing very well and gaining pd, maybe collecting some PD points as well. But it also helps to get the winner in your lineup as well. So, you know, at a road course where it all mostly just a lot of the success for your lineup is gonna boil down to the PD and the finishing position of all five or six of your drivers depending on the set that you're playing. Don't shy away from taking the PD when it's available to you. You know, and, and don't go too heavy on stacking guys starting towards the front because in all likelihood that's gonna negatively correlate uh, your build and it's gonna give you a very narrow path to being optimal. Speaker 3 00:46:28 Yes. You're gonna need, um, unlike most other road courses you can actually pass and, you know, there's a lot of changing of positions at the ral typically, um, simply cuz it's half oval, half infield road course. Um, and there, there tends to be a lot of sneaky passing opportunities in this layout that people don't necessarily assume are there. So, um, I'm, I'm with you. This one is about a PD build. If you get the guy that dominates the most labs, great. But there are ways to um, to not have to have that guy in your lineup and still and still win. Like for example, let's say that Chase Elliot's on the pole and so you assume he's gonna lead more than half the lap, right? So if you want him in your lineup, you automatically go down to 78 80 as your average driver that you can play. So if we go, okay, who else did we like? We're definitely playing Almond DER at 9,400, right? Speaker 2 00:47:41 DA Custer, Speaker 3 00:47:42 We liked Austin Crick at 8,600, we liked Busher at 7,800 right? But now we're down to 6,800 for the last two spots, which gives us Custer at 67 and we can top out at Austin DI at 69. So like your options at that point aren't great. So yes, while you have Chase Elliot and you line up and you're expecting him to be the dominator, you're now sacrificing the last spot in your lineup to go get the dominator points that may not be necessary, right? Let's say for sake of argument that Chastain is the better PD play, even though he is not gonna dominate. Now your last spot can be a guy like S SW as at 8,500 or Kyle Bush at 8,100 or McDowell at 7,300, right? So even though we for we forgo theoretically, this is again theoretical. We don't know the qualifying spots at this point. This is Wednesday night. I would rather have a lineup that was like chest almond or Cindrich, Busher, Kuster McDowell, which are all like PD and solid finished position plays rather than four of those guys Chase Elliot and then some scrub like Joey hand or you know, something like that. Speaker 2 00:49:10 Uh, is there anything else you wanted to touch on for this weekend's race? Honestly, I'm actually really looking forward to this weekend cuz there's no mma, it's the MLB playoffs. Uh, NBA is not fully starting and NHL is kind of getting the wheels rolling. So it's really just, Speaker 3 00:49:24 Yeah, they start in like Russia. The NHL starts in like Europe somewhere. Oh, Speaker 2 00:49:30 Doing some, Okay. I guess that makes it, okay, so Speaker 3 00:49:33 There's, there's two, it's like, um, slate. I don't remember who's playing, but the same two teams are playing each other twice like Friday and Saturday over in Europe. Um, in an interesting way to kick off the NHL season. Um, but yeah, I'm looking forward to this too. I'm also looking forward to, um, F one. It's Suzuka. That's gonna be a great, great way for it. Hopefully. Um, it's gonna completely mess with my sleep schedule this weekend. 100%. It's gonna be like I'm playing in London in the nfl. Um, <laugh>, and by the way, I know this is a NASCAR podcast, but if you're playing fantasy football, get up early and double check your, your lineups for the London game. Don't sleep in and then complain your dude got taken out and you didn't know it. Be responsible. Speaker 2 00:50:28 I agree. Uh, I told grounded this story on the Two Minute Drill podcast and I'll be brief, but I was up at around 3:00 AM Eastern time in the na in the NFL Discord and I was helping one of our subs make the decision if he should start, uh, Alvin Erna. And I was under the mindset that he was gonna play. You know, I know that he was limited in practice all last week, but this subscriber of ours was also in Hawaii. And so when it was 3:00 AM for me, it was like nine or 10:00 PM at night for him and he was getting ready to go to bed and I didn't want to tell him how to live his life. You know, what I should have said is, well what I would do is I would just set an alarm, just make sure he's active and Speaker 3 00:51:05 Just Speaker 2 00:51:05 Go back to sleep. Yeah. But like he didn't do that. And I felt terrible when I got the news at 8:00 AM Sunday morning as, uh, as I was jumping into the Discord and Camaro was out and my initial thought just went to like that one subscriber. And I felt terrible because like I knew, I just knew there was no way I could wake him up and just get him to check his lineup. Uh, but I agree, uh, you are responsible for your own lineups. Just, I live by the model. Like I love to cover my ass as much as I possibly can. I know like not everything is under my control, but if I had, if I was in a spot where I could just set a quick alarm for 3:00 AM or 6:00 AM depending on what time zone I'm in, I'm gonna do it and just set my line, make sure that I have a lot of guys in because 85% of the people on CBS sports leagues missed that news on, on album Camaro and who was started in 17 outta 20 leagues. Speaker 3 00:51:55 Yep. Speaker 2 00:51:56 Insane. Speaker 3 00:51:57 And people wanted free switcheroos and no. Speaker 2 00:52:02 Uh, but anyway, Matt, uh, also, uh, pretty solid podcast. I like to think, uh, for, you know, since we've kind of been a little sluggish the last couple weeks, but obviously Speaker 3 00:52:11 Yep. By the way, you didn't see the Monday Night Rans with Mailin on it this past Monday. You can go back, it should be on demand, um, in the Better Sports Network app and go, go. Speaker 2 00:52:25 It was actually a lot of fun. Uh, I thought 15 minutes but then, uh, Speaker 3 00:52:29 With weird sandwiches. Speaker 2 00:52:32 We didn't talk about that actually. Speaker 3 00:52:33 Really? Cause I brought it up on my side when he's like, I went have on and asked him. I was like, he eats peanuts with the shells on. Yeah, that's true. He eats like Mayo Peanut butter, lettuce sandwiches, like also true Speaker 2 00:52:46 <laugh>. But anyway, uh, salt breakdown for the role of this week. Matt, best of luck to you, uh, in Charlotte. And best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:52:54 Best of Walk Cafe Foundation.

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