Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine
Speaker 2 00:00:21 Going on. FA nation. Welcome back. This is the NASCAR DFS podcast. I'm Dan mail. I'm back after vacation. So many thanks to ed Rouse for filling in joined as always by Matt sells the three time FSW Wade, NASCAR writer of the year. Matt, how are you? I feel like, I feel like I haven't been on as much in the last few, uh, races for the podcast in particular, and we've had three non playoff drivers get their first wins of the season. And it's just been pure ki chaos as I've been playing lighter. Uh, but you know, how, how are you obviously coming off another pretty crazy Bristol race?
Speaker 3 00:01:00 Yeah. Uh, Bristol was chaos to say the least. I mean, it's always an element of chaos, but like this was, this was nuts. Um, the racing also wasn't great at Bristol either. It was <laugh> as Jeff Clark's poll pointed out. It was basically the worst regular season race, uh, for Bristol since he did the poll. So that, that wasn't great. Um,
Speaker 2 00:01:27 Was there really that bad? I didn't see any of the cup race or the Xfinity race, cuz I wasn't,
Speaker 3 00:01:32 Well, let's put it this way. I don't remember off the top of my head, a PA a green flag pass for the lead. Oh, in the cup race. The only lead changes that happened were either on pit road or due to like chaos. Um, somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't seem to remember the, uh, green flag pass for the lead. If it was, it was pretty early on as the track cooled in, um, the nighttime, it was basically the leader could hold the, the lead, like congrats to Chris. Busher obviously I'm not taking anything away from him. Um, and winning the sword, which is a sweet trophy, but mean Kyle Bush's engine blew up. Denny Hamlin had trouble. Uh, there was tire problems all night. Um, Ryan Blaney's suspension got screwed up and then they put him back out on track.
Speaker 3 00:02:29 And um, I also don't know what the hell Toyota was doing by the way, by putting Christopher Bell and Bubba Wallace back on the track. Um, like, uh, I know or sorry, not Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs. I don't know what they were doing. Like Ty Gibbs should not have gone back on the track. There was no reason for him to do that. And Bubba, I get it. That car is in for the owner Playhouse, but it won last week. So like, it didn't need to go back out there. And by those two guys going back on the track, they cost Kyle Bush a shot to make the, the next round because they finished less laps down than Kyle Bush did. And so therefore two spots ahead of them. So yeah, it was just chaos. It wasn't, it wasn't a whole lot of great chances for passing much. Like we're gonna see this week in Texas, unfortunately.
Speaker 2 00:03:28 Yeah, we, uh, we're um,
Speaker 3 00:03:32 Neither one of us like this track.
Speaker 2 00:03:34 <laugh> I'm trying to think how I wanna word this. And
Speaker 3 00:03:36 I've actually had the displeasure of watching a race here in person.
Speaker 2 00:03:40 I'm trying to think of some redeeming qualities of Texas motor
Speaker 3 00:03:45 Speedway. Uh, I saw Kyle Larson's car catch fire in the, okay.
Speaker 2 00:03:49 That
Speaker 3 00:03:50 Probably leading his park off fire in turn too.
Speaker 2 00:03:52 <laugh> um, I'm sure the concessions are cheap.
Speaker 3 00:03:56 Concessions are reasonably cheap. The parking's free. Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:04:00 That's
Speaker 3 00:04:00 Nice. Um, but I will say getting out of the track is a disaster cuz the cops have the absolute worst flow of traffic getting out of that Speedway. Um, you know, it, it look it's Texas. Um, NASCAR clearly knows it's not people's favorite track cuz they're systematically taking it off of these series schedules. Um, if we notice for 2023, they've done a pretty good job of reducing uh, trips to Texas. Um, well, yeah, I mean
Speaker 2 00:04:37 It's still gonna have a playoff race, right?
Speaker 3 00:04:39 Yes. Each series has a playoff race at Texas motor Speedway.
Speaker 2 00:04:45 Ugh,
Speaker 3 00:04:46 Unfortunate. Although I do feel that it's a little redeeming that the cup series all star race goes back to north Wilkesboro because north Wilkesboro lost its date to Texas motor Speedway originally
Speaker 2 00:04:57 On I'm pretty sure the trucks are off this weekend.
Speaker 3 00:05:01 They, yes, but I know about next year.
Speaker 2 00:05:05 Oh, okay. Yeah. Then you're probably right anyway. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:05:10 As you can see, look, it's, it's a fast, it's a fast track. It is a high speed intermediate. Um, they're gonna run the same tires here that they ran at Kansas two weeks ago. So maybe that helps some people who were good at Kansas a couple of weeks ago. Um, but was it Kevin hark or Kyle Bo that once said about Texas motor Speedway, the only, or Denny Hamlin, maybe the only way to improve it starts with a bulldozer
Speaker 2 00:05:38 That, that does sound like one of them I would provide, I
Speaker 3 00:05:42 Think it was ham said it, but I might be misattributing the, the quote, but yeah, they, they basically said just, just start over with,
Speaker 2 00:05:49 Why do they just keep coming back here? Do they really draw that much of a crowd?
Speaker 3 00:05:53 No,
Speaker 2 00:05:54 <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:05:57 Not, not really. Um, they do because the company that owns it wants the TV money from Texas motor Speedway. It's that simple. They get a lot of TV money for cup races that go there. So,
Speaker 2 00:06:16 So I guess, so how should you know, or listeners or subs, how should they start DFS research this week? Um, if any at all, are you looking more at track history because obviously Texas underwent a pretty significant repave that a lot of people, uh, say ruined the track and produced some of the worst racing schedule each year, or are you looking at mile and a halfs, uh, from this year in particular with the new car,
Speaker 3 00:06:44 I'm basically kinda looking at a combination of both, right? I'm gonna weight the intermediates from this year, a little higher than track history. Um, because yeah, Texas motor Speedway has changed quite a bit in the last 5, 6, 7 years. Um, and you know, they, they keep putting down resin or PJ one or whatever compound they want to put on there to artificially make another racing group. Um, but I'm gonna look more this year at the intermediates. Um, from this year I'm gonna disregard the all star race there because obviously it was a partial field. It wasn't a real race. Um, so,
Speaker 2 00:07:25 And that race was a bit of a mess,
Speaker 3 00:07:26 Right? That race was a mess and they're also not running the same tires this weekend that they ran at the all star race. So no notes, they're going no notes for this one as the kids say. Um, so yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna probably wait a little bit more. Um, this year's intermediate stats, you know, places like Charlotte and Kansas cuz of the tires, um, you know, you could go Darlington, you, you go Vegas. Um, you could even go Michigan. It's kind of a high speed, intermediate track as well. So, um, or kind of in that, that lane of track this week.
Speaker 2 00:08:08 Cool. Uh, what's the schedule looking like this week? I know for me it's pretty basic, uh, practice and qualifying for the Xfinity series. Start at 10:35 AM. I will do what I've normally been doing for these playbooks. I will have a pre-practice and qualifying right up out Saturday morning. Uh, and then I will have updates and core plays posted in the discord. The updates will be in red in the Xfinity series playbook. Um, again, I, I think I'm only doing 10 lineups, a dollar each in the happy hour contest for both series. Um, it, and this is one of those races where it's like, whether this is NFL season or not. It's just really hard to get excited about watching this race and then playing it from a DFS perspective.
Speaker 3 00:08:56 I agree. Um, in terms of cup schedule, they have practice at 12:35 PM Eastern on Saturday afternoon, and then they go right into qualifying, both of which are on USA. And I'm not sure that there's a time delay on this one, which is nice. Thanks NBC for time stuff. So you could show talking heads talking about EPL matches that nobody states I really cares about. Um, and then the race for the cup series is 3:30 PM Eastern on Sunday. Um, scheduling note, I will be in and out a little bit on Sunday. Um, my daughters have a fairly packed schedule that day. One of them is doing a fundraising, uh, run for her school. Uh that's before the race. And then my other daughter has a, uh, soccer game that starts basically at the same time. Well, an hour after the race starts. So, um, I might be being on discord from my phone. Um, I will have the, I will try my daughter just to get the examples out early if I don't, uh, you might be getting examples from Dan here.
Speaker 2 00:10:03 That's me.
Speaker 3 00:10:06 So we'll, we'll see. It's look, if the tone for this week's podcast sounds a little down a it's late in the week. It's Thursday night on a NFL week. Um, so we're a little tired to begin with, but B it's look, it's hard to get excited about Texas. I don't wanna tell you not to play it, but it's pretty hard to get excited about Texas. Um, not to mention that every time we've had a long intermediate race this year, chaos has absolutely rained. Oh, we've had tire issues. We've had engine failures, we've had terrible pit strategies. Um, so yeah, that makes it a little tough to, um, kind of, you know, feel confident in, uh, the, the DFS picks.
Speaker 2 00:10:51 All right, well, let's just take a look at what we have. Um, obviously the usual suspects are top to board. Denny Hamlin is the most expensive driver at 10,800 Kyle Larson, 10,705 drivers overall are over, uh, $10,000. And honestly, um, <laugh> Ross chestain is not in this group. Um, he's had some decent finishes, uh, at Bristol and Kansas, but down to 9,200 at this point, uh, a much more palatable price tag for Ross chest, but among the drivers that are 10 K and over, uh, it's Hamlin Larson, Elliot bell, Kyle Bush, uh, three JDR drivers to HMS drivers. Uh, who is your favorite of this group before practice and qualifying? Probably Hamlin for me.
Speaker 3 00:11:43 Really?
Speaker 2 00:11:44 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:11:48 So
Speaker 2 00:11:48 I like the recent form so far in the playoffs with, uh, two runner up finishes. I understand like variety of tracks, but I mean, uh, he was second at Darlington in Kansas.
Speaker 3 00:12:01 Yeah. I mean, that's true. My only downside to, to, to Hamlin is he's not dominating races. Like I would like to see if her guy in this price range, is he bringing back value at this price? Yes, he has been right. He finished, he put up 62 at Darlington in 70 at Kansas, but 23 of those 70 came from place differential mm-hmm <affirmative>. So if he let's say he starts top five and finishes runner up, you're talking about 50 points, an $11,000 salary. That's a different scenario. Right? Um, so that's my only downside to Hamlin is that he has yet to really dominate a race. He did at Nashville at 114 lamps there, um, and had a pretty good race of Dover. But outside of that, he hasn't re he hasn't topped 40 laps li side.
Speaker 2 00:13:06 What about the fact that, um, between Kansas and Darlington, without, with only leading six laps, he did have 34 fascist laps and again was still runner up.
Speaker 3 00:13:19 Yeah. I mean, look, he's been consistent, right. There was a stat going into last week's race that if you take out the major incidents that over like the last two months, then the Hamlet had an average finish at 3.2. It's pretty impressive. Um, he's deserving in the highest one. He's also had a pretty decent run at Texas previously, but my favorite, I would have to say in this group is split between I would've to say Kyle Bush and probably Bel
Speaker 2 00:13:56 Okay. Um, Bush has three street finishes, four of his last five outside the top 25.
Speaker 3 00:14:07 Yeah. Two of those were engine failures.
Speaker 2 00:14:09 Exactly. <laugh> like used to say that can't happen again.
Speaker 3 00:14:15 I
Speaker 2 00:14:15 Mean, and he is also out of the playoffs now he's on his way out of JGR. What does, how does he even care about the rest of the season?
Speaker 3 00:14:25 I think he does a and B not a single playoff driver has won a playoff race yet. Not a single playoff, not, not any of the three playoff races were won by playoff drivers. So like,
Speaker 2 00:14:45 So now that he is not a playoff driver, you think that increases his chances. <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:14:51 I mean, it's a small sample size, but you know,
Speaker 2 00:14:54 Ugh.
Speaker 3 00:14:55 It's, it's held up look before his engine is blown. Kyle Bush has had very good speed.
Speaker 2 00:15:02 Oh, he's always had speed. Like I always feel good about that car shown up to a track, but I don't even feel good about Kyle Bush in cash games anymore because you just look at where he's finishing in some races and like he's got, he does have a win this year. He had, uh, between Charlotte and, uh, gateway. He had back to back runner up finishes, you know, plenty of top fives, but at the same time, you know, he is finished 34th last week, 26th at Kansas 30th at Darlington 32nd at Watkins, Glen 36th at Michigan. Like he's all over the place.
Speaker 3 00:15:38 Yeah. I'm not saying he's a cash game play. I'm just saying if the engine holds up at a track, he's done well at previously at a distance that he has had speed at this year, I will take the $800 savings on his teammate and I will go with Kyle. Cause at this point you're gonna get him as a free square cuz basically nobody wants to play him for fear that his engine blows up.
Speaker 2 00:16:09 I don't think he's that much of, for of a free square unless he's offering PD.
Speaker 3 00:16:16 No, I mean, in terms of leverage.
Speaker 2 00:16:20 Yeah. I don't know. I don't know if we apply the free square term to leverage plays
Speaker 3 00:16:28 If you want a shot in a GPP. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:16:31 Especially when he is $10,000. Like I just don't know if he's a free square at this price tag,
Speaker 3 00:16:37 If he goes off and you're the only one playing him, then it's worked in your favor.
Speaker 2 00:16:46 I get it. Uh, yeah, I just, I, I mean, I'm gonna play him if I'm playing 10 miles, I'm probably gonna have him at at least two of them. I just can't say with complete certainty that I'm ecstatic about this.
Speaker 3 00:17:00 Okay. I mean,
Speaker 2 00:17:02 I mean, it's fine. We disagree. It rarely happens that we disagree.
Speaker 3 00:17:05 I mean, my other argument is if you don't like Kyle Bush, cuz his engines had problems and you don't like M MTJ because he's also had crap luck with engines and whatnot. What's stopping Denny's from having a problem in the same garage. Hey manufacturer, same parts.
Speaker 2 00:17:33 I know like just based on what I've seen, like is Denny managing his better?
Speaker 3 00:17:38 I don't know, man. A complete engine blow up at ol is a freak thing.
Speaker 2 00:17:44 Um, aside
Speaker 3 00:17:46 From if they've sabotaged it's that they sabotaged it last week because of the RCR announcement.
Speaker 2 00:17:55 I'm sorry, I missed what you said
Speaker 3 00:17:57 As it, part of me wonders if JGR sabotaged Kyle Bush's last week because of the RCR announcement.
Speaker 2 00:18:02 I don't think they would do that. That's that's quite the conspiracy
Speaker 3 00:18:06 Theory. Oh man. NASCAR's pretty petty, man.
Speaker 2 00:18:10 I will say that Kyle, some of Kyle Bush's comments, especially regarding racing an indie car were directed directly at Joe Gibbs and how Richard Childress will let him do it and his old boss wouldn't
Speaker 3 00:18:21 Yep. Uh, look, I think there's more bad blood between JGR and Kyle Bush than people wanna let on. And I just find it odd that it, his best racetrack in the middle of a great run. His engine magically blows up when you never see it at Bristol.
Speaker 2 00:18:46 I dunno who car man. <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:18:49 I like the nasper as our buddies at garage at uh, garage guys, like to say,
Speaker 2 00:18:55 Um, alright, we've talked Lon we've talked. Kyle Bush. What about Christopher Bell? Uh, three straight finishes in the top five, $10,300.
Speaker 3 00:19:04 Um, he was right up there with, with Kyle Bush for me look Larson is either gonna catch fire or win. I mean that's, that's what happens with him at Texas chase Elliotts had a bad run of playoff races. Um, and while it's hard to ignore that he was the leader in point in the regular season. He's not exactly dominated, uh, for a little while. So, so I look, I don't know, the, the Hendrick guys are kind of hit and miss I'd rather if I'm gonna go with Hendrick, I'd rather go with Byron or Bowman. Um, but I'll go see back. Well,
Speaker 2 00:19:49 I can get behind that. I have no problem. Um, especially ever since you kind of pulled back the curtain on how HMS was treating Byron's car as kind of like a, a practice vehicle, they were experimenting with it since the playoffs already he's finished eighth, sixth and third. Uh, he's got 38 fastest laps over those three races. He led 50 laps at Darlington. So I mean they're no longer, no longer experimenting. They're nailing the setup for wards.
Speaker 3 00:20:13 Oh, for sure. They seem to be experimenting with Elliot though, cuz that guy's been all over the place in the last few races. Um, but I like, I like seatbelt quite a bit. In fact he might be my favorite, the $10,000 range. Um, look, he's been, he's been very, very quick. He's had very good runs at intermediates this year. Um, and you're getting a little bit of a discount off of his teammate. Um, so yeah, I would say seatbelt's probably my favorite in the top tier.
Speaker 2 00:20:47 All right. What do we make of Tyler Reddick? Um, I actually think that the guy that's coming to take his car and Reddick are kind of in similar situations, you know, they're both out of the playoff picture now. Uh, Reddick is being moved to a third chartered car. Clearly there's, it's gonna be an awkward year for Tyler Reddick next year. Uh, how much motivation does he have as kind of, yeah,
Speaker 3 00:21:09 He doesn't even get his crew chief.
Speaker 2 00:21:11 Yeah like he's, he's moving to like a tertiary team for RCR.
Speaker 3 00:21:16 I would guess it'd be the 29. If I had to take a, if I had to take a yes, I think it's the 29.
Speaker 2 00:21:20 Like what are we doing with Tyler red? He's 9,400. I, I still think there's some win equity because I don't believe he's the kind of guy that just will go out there and really mail it in. But 9,400, I don't know what to do here unless he's, I don't even know how contrarian he could be.
Speaker 3 00:21:39 I'm not sure he is gonna be that contrarian. I mean, he was pretty good at Charlotte, which is usually a good comp uh, for Texas. He led some laps at Kansas before having, you know, before going backwards, uh, in both of those races, um, he was wicked fast at Kansas two, two weeks ago and then he just got squarely loose and it ended his day. Um, so yeah, I'm I'm with you. I'm not sure he is that contrarian. Um, I don't know if people are gonna look past him because you got Ryan Blaney at 9,600 who wanted Texas in the all star race. Granted it's the all star race doesn't really hold any weight. I'm just saying that a bunch of people are gonna go well, Blaney's fast, everywhere and play him, um, or drop down and play Byron. So he might get lost a little bit in the shovel, but I don't think he's contrary.
Speaker 2 00:22:40 Okay. Uh, what about Kevin hark? Pretty decent history from what I can gather at Texas.
Speaker 3 00:22:46 Yeah. He's
Speaker 2 00:22:47 Very good history, actually. Very, very good history.
Speaker 3 00:22:50 Yes. He's got a very good history. He's won here a couple of times. Um, in fact if I'm not, did he win here last year? He win this race last year?
Speaker 2 00:22:58 Uh, I don't think he won this race. I thought he went winless last year.
Speaker 3 00:23:05 Maybe two years ago. Maybe I
Speaker 2 00:23:09 That's, uh, he won here in 20, 19, 20 18, 20 17.
Speaker 3 00:23:14 Oh, okay.
Speaker 2 00:23:15 Uh, all in the fall.
Speaker 3 00:23:17 Okay. So he does like the fall raise here. He just doesn't
Speaker 2 00:23:21 Even last year he finished fifth.
Speaker 3 00:23:23 Heck wasn't last year.
Speaker 2 00:23:26 Uh,
Speaker 3 00:23:27 It wasn't,
Speaker 2 00:23:29 It was Kyle Larson. I heard he had a pretty good year last year.
Speaker 3 00:23:33 <laugh> um, yeah, it was Kyle Larson and
Speaker 2 00:23:39 Then he 150 driver rating in that race.
Speaker 3 00:23:42 Yeah. That was pretty, that's pretty good. In fact, the best you can get. So, you know, pretty good. He won. Yeah. Lawyers had won three the last four races last year. So that was uh, four of the last five races last year actually. Um, yeah, AIC has a very good history here. I mean he is outta the playoff now obviously. Um, is, so does the argument for Kyle Bush stand with Kevin hark? He had a terrible first three races of the playoffs.
Speaker 2 00:24:16 Well, I can at least lean on the fact that Kevin hark is, is a much easier price tag to swallow. He's only 8,700.
Speaker 3 00:24:25 I
Speaker 2 00:24:25 Mean he's barely above the average price tag. Um, there's a little win equity here in the same kind of boat. Yes. He's had a rough start to the playoffs, but overall, uh, I'll, I'll take the discount on har cause at least I feel like he still has plenty to go for. Is he still in the playoff picture?
Speaker 3 00:24:46 No,
Speaker 2 00:24:46 No.
Speaker 3 00:24:47 Har was eliminated last week.
Speaker 2 00:24:49 I take one vacation and I'm
Speaker 3 00:24:52 He needed, he needed to win last week and
Speaker 2 00:24:54 Right. So Bush Redick hark. And who else got eliminated?
Speaker 3 00:24:59 Um, both RCR cars.
Speaker 2 00:25:02 That's
Speaker 3 00:25:03 Bo Boston, Austin, Dylan and Reddick Bo got eliminated Bush, Kyle Bush and Kevin H
Speaker 2 00:25:07 I suck at this job.
Speaker 3 00:25:10 I mean, it was a wild race. It was like Kyle Bush was in there for a little bit and then tag Gibbs and bubble Wallace went back on the track and then knocked out.
Speaker 2 00:25:19 All right. Regardless, same exact boats for Kyle Bush and Kevin river. I will still take Kevin Harwick
Speaker 3 00:25:24 <laugh> I mean, that that's fair. I, I can, I can understand that. I'm still saying that there's enough interest in Kyle Bush to make him palatable in GPP. Um, um,
Speaker 2 00:25:39 Where are you going in this mid-range below Harvard cause I'm seeing bubble Wallace, Eric Jones, the last three drivers to win a race, the three non playoff drivers that have won the races in the playoffs. They're all seemingly priced up by by 8,600 Jones at 8,000 Chris Busher at 79. If we're talking the same tire combination as Texas, don't you think that has to benefit bubble Wallace or is this historically attracted? He sucks at
Speaker 3 00:26:05 Um, so if we're just going based off of tires then sure. Running the same tires is what he whooped people on at Kansas two weeks ago is sure to help. Um, if we're going straight off of track history, you are correct that this has not been a terribly great track for Mr. Bubble Wallace. Um, he's been okay here, um, but not like anything to really write home about. Um, but again, he's also in the best equipment that he's been in. Right. Um, he's got one top 15 in the last five races here, so that's, that's not great. He does tend to have speed and qualifying, so if he can qualify well, and now that he's in better equipment, hold onto that then sure. I like PBA, but there's, there's not really gonna be a way to tell until the race happens. And we see, we see what shakes out, um, as for Eric Jones and Chris Busher, Eric Jones is the best of the, the three here at this track. Um, in terms of average finish, in terms of, you know, notable finishes, um, over the last five races here, granted it's in a be of equipment for Eric Jones is average finishes, 10.6.
Speaker 2 00:27:47 Oh,
Speaker 3 00:27:48 So pretty good. So that that's pretty good. Busher is basically in between the two, his average finish is 22 6 last five races here. Um, that is MAED by a 34th place finish when he crashed out. Um, other than that, he is got 20 19, 19 and 21. So he's reasonably consistent aside from the crash.
Speaker 2 00:28:16 Uh, anyone else you like in this range? I know Austin, Dylan won here. I wanna say what two or three years ago, but uh, I'm not
Speaker 3 00:28:23 Putting yeah, barely, barely beat out, uh, his teammate if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 2 00:28:28 Um, I know this is one of Daniel suss better tracks historically, but at the same time,
Speaker 3 00:28:35 I don't know that I trust track house right now.
Speaker 2 00:28:38 Uh, well I was mostly just gonna go off the fact that I didn't really like how he is looked on intermediates this year in general.
Speaker 3 00:28:46 Yeah. I mean there is that there is that too. If we look back at the intermediates last eight high speed intermediate tracks this year, um, whereas let's see, he's got an average finish at 20.3.
Speaker 2 00:29:03 Great Bob
Speaker 3 00:29:04 Not great Bob. No. Uh, we wanna compare that we were off chestain he's at 16 nine, so it's not like there's a huge <laugh> advantage here. Um, and by the way, if we're talking about Bob Wallace still it's 15 one for him on intermediates. So, um, yeah, I don't know. I look, I haven't been that much on Daniel far as of late. I just think track house has kind of been leveled up a little bit. Like they had speed early in the year and I think kind of caught on to it. Okay. And track house did not make the next adjustment. Um, that being said, he's still in the playoffs. So, you know, and Texas has been traditionally a better track for, whereas he's got three top tens in the last five races, including back to back top three finishes. Not those are the first of the five, not right the last of the five, but, um, I, I don't know. I guess it'll come down to what he looks like, but right now I'm not as high on him as say Bubba or Bowman or Eric Jones or even Busher.
Speaker 2 00:30:23 Uh, can you possibly rally around Ty Gibbs at just 7,000 on draft Kings? Uh, we were talking about comparable tracks. They use 15th at Darlington, uh, at Michigan. He grabbed his first top 10 of his career. Really? It's been his only top 10 so far, but he's still kind of getting used to the next gen car, but overall, you know, I think this is a perfectly reasonable price tag for a guy who could go out and finish his top Toyota maybe, or maybe get another top 10.
Speaker 3 00:30:53 Yeah. I've seen some folks betting the top Toyota line on him. I mean, I, I may do it cuz it was the last time I checked. It was actually decently long.
Speaker 2 00:31:06 Last time I checked on drafting sports book, it was 25 to one.
Speaker 3 00:31:11 Let's see what it's at right now in a live check it here. Um, yeah, it's 25 to one, but look out of a stable of six cars. That's decently long, right? It's not as great as it was. Road
Speaker 2 00:31:26 Is next at nine to one.
Speaker 3 00:31:28 Yeah, I did see it at like 45 to one when it opened, which seemed insane to me. Um, but like for example, the 25 to one for Ty Gibbs' top Toyota would put him in line with Eric Amar and chase Brisco and Brad Klowski for top Ford and it would put him in line with, well nobody's 25 to one in the Chevy camp. It goes from SW as at 15 to one to Eric Jones to at 50 to one.
Speaker 3 00:32:05 So I guess the question is, if you believe in Ty, Ty gives his talent, then you're betting him at a pretty reasonable rate. And if you think JGR is gonna continue to have problems and then he is only really gotta beat a couple other guys. So I would say he's probably worth it at 7,000. Look, I'm not really terribly excited about the guys that are around him either. Like not all that excited about Amar. I don't know what to do with Klowski this week. Stonehouse tried to screw us over two weeks ago, even before the flipping race started. Um, you can get
Speaker 2 00:32:50 By McDowell
Speaker 3 00:32:51 What
Speaker 2 00:32:51 You can probably get by McDowell
Speaker 3 00:32:55 Probably. I mean, he's look, I
Speaker 2 00:32:56 Mean for a guy who's 6,400 and he has,
Speaker 3 00:33:00 He's got three straight
Speaker 2 00:33:01 Top 10.
Speaker 3 00:33:05 Yeah. Okay. But now we're also talking about $600 cheaper than tags, which is a pretty decent dropdown. So like you could probably play Gibbs and McDowell together and still get a pretty decent,
Speaker 2 00:33:19 You could play GI those two together and you'll have 36,600 for your last four drivers.
Speaker 3 00:33:28 Yeah. That's what about nine? Just over 9,000
Speaker 2 00:33:33 Over 9,000 per 91 50.
Speaker 3 00:33:36 Yeah. So if you go with, let's just game this out. If you go with McDowell and Gibbs and then we say, we want to go with, with Bel and we both liked Byron, they both liked har that leaves you 8,500 for your last spot gives you Bowman or SWAs or Jones or Busher.
Speaker 2 00:34:03 And then from there you just, uh, well, I mean
Speaker 3 00:34:09 Go Jones.
Speaker 2 00:34:10 My natural instinct is just to say he's offering the most PD, but then at the same time, while you're just exposing yourself to a chalk play that could easily buzz
Speaker 3 00:34:20 Right. Chalk and NASCAR, hasn't gone well together this year,
Speaker 2 00:34:23 For sure. It almost busts all the time,
Speaker 3 00:34:27 Except in the truck race at Bristol where the guy who started at the back of the pack finish second.
Speaker 2 00:34:32 Wait, who's that? Chandler Smith.
Speaker 3 00:34:36 Uh, yeah, Chandler.
Speaker 2 00:34:41 Um, alright, so we've talked about how we're not excited overly <laugh> about this race. Uh, but we have also said it's difficult to pass here in terms of roster construction, how deep into the field are you willing to go? Or how many PD plays are you willing to stack? Because my mindset this year, especially of late has been the PD is presenting itself to me. I will take it, but it's gotta be a guy that I feel great about the equipment. And I feel good about the driver. If it's someone like Alex, Bowman, Daniel far as maybe Bubba, Austin, Dylan Chase. BSCO like, if it's, if it's one of these fringe guys that can do well and crack a top 10, but also just, we don't feel as consistent about then I don't necessarily want to take it. Um, but if we get, you know, Denny or Elliot bell, Kyle Bush starting the rear, I'll take it. But let's say that this, that qualifying goes without any trouble. Everyone gets a clean lap in and pretty much everyone is starting right about where you would expect them to. Are you mostly gonna play guys start playing the top 20 since it's gonna end up being pretty difficult to pass? Or are you willing to take some shots on guys starting outside the top 25?
Speaker 3 00:36:00 I'm the
Speaker 2 00:36:00 Nice thing about this race is that like, it, it shouldn't be too hard for people to stay on the lead lap,
Speaker 3 00:36:06 Right? You're gonna see like in last year's fall race, um, there were 334 laps run. There were 15 guys who finished on the lead lap last fall, but that was a little bit of a crazy race. There was some guys who were involved in a crash who finished higher than guys that weren't and whatnot, but we're just looking at top 10 finishers from last fall, you had SWOS who started 19th and finished 10th. You had Harvard who finished, who started 24th and finished fifth. Those are the only two guys that started outside the top 12 to finish inside the top 10 and Eric Jones starting 21st and finishing 12th and Brisco started 26th and finish 15th. So again, you can kind of pick and choose, but the next closest guy that started outside the top 25 was the joy starting 29th and finished 20th. So like you can pass, you can pass here, but it is, it is challenging. And once you get inside the top 10 it's it's much harder to do. Um, so with that being said, I'm probably building around one, maybe two dominators, but almost assuredly. It's gonna be a one dominator build. Um,
Speaker 2 00:37:43 Is that typically how it's been for the last couple of races?
Speaker 3 00:37:46 Well, let's see. In 2020 ball race here, how many laps led did Mr. Chicago Bush have Kyle Bush in the fall race in 2020 led 90 laps. Um, then you had Boyer leading 89, which is weird, congrats to Boyer, I guess. Um, but last fall, let's what happened last fall. Um, because again in 2020, wasn't really in qualifying, it was basically the formula. Um, so last fall, if we take a look at it, we kind kind Lars and started on the poll finished first and 104 fastest laps and relapsed did he lead? He led 256, Byron led 55 after starting 12. Um, and there's 334 laps in this race. So Larson basically dominated this thing last year 2020 was kind of an odd one. Let's see what happened in 2019 might be more indicative of what happens again. Let's see. Also these races were like the, the 2021 and 2019 races were run a little later in the year. It was like November when those were run as opposed to mid September, but in 2019, Kevin Harwick led 119 lapse after starting on the poll. And then wait, uh, and let's see you had Jimmy Johnson leading 40 cuz that was one of, that was a weird race for him, 62 for Ola, but yeah, in general, you're gonna find like one guy leads more than a hundred laps and then the rest of 'em are spread out.
Speaker 2 00:40:01 Anything else you wanted to touch on for this week? I've I've just been trying to make this as enjoyable of an experience as possible for our listeners for Texas.
Speaker 3 00:40:12 Um, no, I mean, I would, I would assume that there's gonna be some tire stuff happening. Um, look, it happened at Kansas. These are the same tires, so you have to expect it. It's gonna be hot. There's 334 laps in this race, Texas isn't necessarily a super high wear track, but look, these good years have been tough to trust this year in terms of what's actually gonna happen with them. Um, I have not seen any reports yet if they're putting any compound of any kind or resin on the track, um, to try to make it a better track. We'll see. Um, I know Dale Jr, who has a lot of sway inside the industry was not terribly kind, uh, on his podcast about the setup for Bristol, nor was he that kind on Twitter prior to the race, um, about them putting traction compound down. So we'll have to see, um, schedule wise, you know, kind of normal stuff, playbook, bats, all that stuff will be out this weekend. I will try and get the starting grid done. Apologies for that. Not coming out yet. It's start a football and a bunch of moving parts.
Speaker 2 00:41:35 It's been it's NFL season.
Speaker 3 00:41:37 Yeah. Um,
Speaker 2 00:41:39 All right.
Speaker 3 00:41:41 That, that's about, that's about all I got for this this week.
Speaker 2 00:41:45 All right. Well, Matt, thank you so much for your time as always best of luck to you and best of luck to the FA nation this weekend at Texas and in your season long in the NFL DFS contest,
Speaker 3 00:41:56 First of what.
