Episode 14

May 13, 2023


Goodyear 400 NASCAR DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Goodyear 400 NASCAR DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Goodyear 400 NASCAR DFS Preview

May 13 2023 | 00:31:48


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz break down the DFS slates for DraftKings and FanDuel for the Goodyear 400 from Darlington Raceway for NASCAR DFS. The top DFS strategies they're employing as well as their favorite bets for Sunday's Cup race.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:21 What's going on? F Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Water NASCAR DFS podcast. I'm Dan Mailn and I'm joined as always by the Fs w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells. We are streaming this to the Better Sports Network. Matt, how you doing? We, uh, we're coming off a phenomenal race at Kansas. Arguably one of the best, if not the best, uh, in the next gen car. Uh, Kansas was a hell of a race. We're gonna be previewing Darlington, but, uh, you know, we don't typically touch on the previous race too much when we do these podcasts cause it's a pretty short show. But I did want to get your thoughts on, you know, the last lap battle between Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and the dust up on Pit Road between, uh, Ross Chastain and Noah Gregson. Speaker 3 00:01:02 I thought it was a phenomenal race. It had everything. It had comers and goers, it had pit strategy, it had tire strategy, little bit of fuel mileage there. At the end of stage two, it seemed like, um, we had, you know, good clean, hard racing. We had some people making idiotic moves way too early in the race to be making idiotic moves. Um, it had a, it, it was just spectacular. I thought the Denny Larson thing was perfectly fine. I'm not a hundred percent sure that Hamlin really did anything. I think it was Larson just kind of getting tight and coming off the wall. Like Speaker 2 00:01:37 I think you're right. And I tend to agree with you especially because like, even when the, the, the last 20 laps or so, like Denny was making up ground just because Larson kept getting loose, Speaker 3 00:01:45 Right? It's not the first time that Larson hit the wall, right? Cuz obviously he, you know, puts it up near the wall. So, um, I thought the two of them were, were great and conceal conciliatory at the, you know, the post-race stuff. Larson very rarely talks crap about anybody and I'm sure he is not gonna do it to Hamlin cuz they're basically on the same plane. Ross Chastain, I think may overtake Chase Elliott as the most popular driver in NASCAR this year. Like, I, I I think it's happening also, Larson has said that too, by the way. So <laugh>, I'm not the only one that thinks it. Um, he gave Gregson warnings, he told them to stop. We told him to let go. Gregson didn't and then he landed a square one Speaker 2 00:02:30 So's a nice hook. Speaker 3 00:02:32 Congrats man. Like, and then by the way, anybody that smiles after punching you in the face is not somebody you really want to go mess with. <laugh>, I dunno if you saw that shot of from behind his car, but as they were pulling Grason off of him, Chastain was there with a big old grin on his face after punching Greg <laugh>. So like, I'm not messing with that guy. <laugh> just, just not, um, look Darlington, it's throwback weekend. It's a usually a very good track. It's got a lot to live up to following that Kansas race cuz that thing was fantastic. And those of you who voted no in Jeff Clark's poll, you just wanna watch the world burn because I I don't Speaker 2 00:03:13 Yeah, there's, there was no reason to vote no on that race. Somebody Speaker 3 00:03:15 Was like, will it took too long? I'm like, get over it. Like, like what Speaker 2 00:03:22 <laugh> I mean were there probably an excess of cautions? Sure. But I will negate and be fine with cautions all day. If the quality of the racing is good. Like, like, like you said, you could pass, you could pass for the lead, you know, in in general like, you know, the, the tire wear was was a good narrative as well. Speaker 3 00:03:40 You had three grooves to race like the entire, the entire day. Yeah. I wide restarts were insane. Like, I don't know, like there should be a petition made that every intermediate track should just be like, well now we can't do auto club. Right cuz it's going to a half mile. You should just have it be Homestead Kansas and Darlington is the only intermediate <laugh> on the schedule cause they're the only ones that consistently put together good, good racing. Uh, Speaker 2 00:04:12 But like you said, it is throwback weekend at Darlington Race Raceway, we have the trucks Xfinity series and the Cup series all in action. We are recording this just after, uh, 12:00 PM Eastern on Friday. Uh, so the trucks haven't even gotten on track yet for practicing qualifying. Um, overall, you know, I guess we can talk contests a little bit, you know, similar to last week where Kansas, where we were kind of saying like, cash is fine, tournament's fine. Like there, there was really no bad contests you could play. Uh, we only get DraftKings contests for the truck series and the truck series contests are awful. I'm already looking forward to Xfinity and Cup. Um, I I I it's so hard for me to get excited about uh, Speaker 3 00:04:54 What did, what did they price Kyle Larson at by the way Speaker 2 00:04:57 For Xfinity? I haven't even looked cuz I've only, no, Speaker 3 00:05:00 I mean for trucks, Speaker 2 00:05:01 No, Kyle Larson's not in trucks. William Byron is and Byron, Speaker 3 00:05:04 Oh, Kyle Larson's doing the Xfinity Race in place of Bowman. Speaker 2 00:05:09 So Larson is, so Bowman is scheduled to run, I can't remember if it's next week at North Wilkesboro, but Bowman was scheduled to run for Spire in the seventh. Right? Speaker 3 00:05:19 Okay. Nope. Got the race weekends confused cuz I stopped the Larson's replacing him. I just got the Speaker 2 00:05:26 Larson's 13 K for the Xfinity race. Byron in Kyle Bush's 51 truck for Kyle Bus Motorsports is only 11,100. Which he, Speaker 3 00:05:33 That's a complete misprice. Speaker 2 00:05:35 Exactly. <laugh> um, <laugh> especially cuz Kyle Bus was 13.5 in the exact same truck a week ago. But the Speaker 3 00:05:42 Truck wins everything when it's on the track. And now you have a guy who nearly won the Cup race last year in that truck, right? That uh, Speaker 2 00:05:50 <laugh>. Uh, but you know, as far as the Cup series goes, you know, cash GPP tournaments, like all in play once again I think we can just get that one outta the way. Speaker 3 00:06:00 Yeah. Now let me clarify as to why we're recording this on Friday cuz it is a morning, uh, qualifying and practice session for Cup. So there would've been time to do it Saturday afternoon except I have a very good friend of mine, uh, birthday party to go to Saturday afternoon. So, um, you know it, scheduling wise this just worked a little better. Um, we can kind of give you the lay of the land here for contest selection kind of strategy from what we've seen previous races, what tracks we're looking at, comparing this to, um, not gonna delve too much into exact drivers that we're, we're looking at. Maybe a few will say that for the playbook. Uh, but yeah, cash and GPP are fine this week. Uh, it doesn't look like weather's gonna be that big of a concern in in Darlington this weekend. Um, you know, looking at the weather reports, it looked a lot worse for Kansas at this point in the weekend than it did <laugh> than it does now for Darlington. Speaker 3 00:07:01 Um, but for those of you who may not remember or need a refresher, Darlington all grouped with the intermediates is a 1.33 mile track. Uh, so not the full one and a half. Um, and it's fairly steep. The banking here is makes it one of the steepest banked intermediate tracks on the schedule. Also, tire wear is huge. Uh, Darlington the surface eats the ever 11 day lights outta the rubber on the Goodyear tires. Uh, we're talking like auto club level worse than homestead, certainly worse than Kansas. Um, so you know, controlling the car when the tires are wearing down is gonna be a big thing here. Not to mention set up on the car is tricky here because the ends of the track are different. It is an egg-shaped track. Um, and I will touch on that with Mike Grover's grill video that I'll be doing with Edward Ruse here this week. Speaker 3 00:07:56 Uh, cause I'm grilling something specific for Darlington. I like to theme these so we'll talk about that in the Grover's Grill, but it has to do with the pond at the end of one end of the track that they didn't wanna destroy. So, um, it makes things a little tricky. Guys that can figure this track out are usually good here regardless of what's happening elsewhere. Um, so we're kind of gonna lean on that. Uh, for me, in terms of tracks that compare to it, I'm looking at the four main intermediates that they've run this year. Auto club is an intermediate shore, the two mile track, whatever high tire wear is huge at auto club, so that compares, um, Vegas. Yes, it's not a tire wear track, but it is a steeply banked. Um, it Speaker 2 00:08:41 Is getting older though. Speaker 3 00:08:42 It is getting older. It's in the, so the sun and the sand, you know, grind that thing down. Um, but it is also a tough a track where it's tough to pass. So track position is key at Vegas, just like it is at Darlington. It's also steeply banked. So that fits. Dover is a very steeply banked track that ran the intermediate package there. It kind of fits. Sure it's a little shorter, but not everything's gonna match perfectly with Darlington. It's a one-off track basically. And then Kansas for tire wear, um, also fits in there too. So those are the ones we're looking at this week. Speaker 2 00:09:19 Are you gonna read into the tire combination narrative pretty tightly? Um, they are running the same right size that they ran at Kansas. Um, and I believe this is the, this is not the same tire combination that they ran at Darlington last year. It's gonna be the same one that they ran at Homestead Auto Club and one of the track, I think it might be Vegas, but should we, you know, considering last year was the first year of the next gen car, should we even look at how Darlington last year played out in those two races? Or should we more so concentrate our research and our attention to what they've done on this tire combo at Homestead Auto Club and pretty much the high tire war tracks of this year? Speaker 3 00:10:00 Uh, I would factor in, I'm not saying like it's strictly, oh this guy was great at, at, you know, homestead so we're playing him because you know, it fits with the type like it's part of the research. Am I gonna ignore it? No. Am I gonna base everything on it? No, it'll be a factor. Um, it's hard for me to go back to exactly what we saw at Homestead last year because it was one of the first races in an intermediate package in the next gen car last year and it had different tires than, you know, some of the other ones we saw earlier in the year. So the, if you look back at what we saw early last year, the cars that were fast to start with almost faded as the season went on last year cuz everybody else caught up at bound speed and um, whatnot. Am I leaning on guys with like, if that data matches good track history here, sure we'll be all over those guys, right? But um, we're not strictly going off of like the three races they've run these tires on. We're gonna, you know, mix it all together. Speaker 2 00:11:13 All right. Um, and I guess overall in terms of manufacturer, um, the Chevys have universally been fast almost everywhere, specifically Hendrick Motorsports, JGR 23 Xi you know, last year the Toyotas got off to a pretty horn to start, came on strong towards the end of the year. Um, and then earlier this year there seemed to have been a little bit of struggle. But all, especially coming off of the last year races where Jgr drivers have won, can we assume that we can feel good about, you know, the Chevys and the Toyotas again having speed this weekend that maybe the big concern is gonna be once again with the Fords? Speaker 3 00:11:50 Yeah, I think that played out at Kansas last week. I mean, not to be a prisoner of the moment, obviously Kansas is its own track, but I think we saw that, right? We saw the Toyotas and the Chevys rise so that they were typically the ones running up front most of that race last week. Um, the Fords had a couple of guys that were for the most part seemed to struggle, um, in this package. And like most drivers, and it's not just like eye results that I'll tell you this, but if you listen to Denny Hamlin talk or you listen to Kyle Larson on his podcast or you listen to Dale Jr. Has pointed it out on his or the door bumper clear guys have kind of talked about it a little bit. There's a lot of drag in that Ford Mustang body. Yeah. Like, and it's not really anything they can do about it, right? Speaker 3 00:12:40 Because you can't lower the car a certain amount because you have to be within the regulations. You can't, um, raise it up. You can't tilt it a certain way to get it outta the wind. You can't raise the spoiler or change that. Um, so it's kind of like, you know, they're fighting with one arm tied behind their back a little bit because the, the arrow something they can't necessarily control is affecting them in ways that Toyotas and Chevys aren't. Does that mean that they can't find a way around it? No, cuz Kevin Harvick seems to have, I mean he's been a top 10 caliber guy at comparable tracks this year, right? But I also think that it's talking about the upper echelon of Ford drivers are gonna find speed no matter what because they're guys that know how to find speed, right? If we're talking about the younger guys that need the base setup to be fast, I think they're gonna struggle again. Speaker 2 00:13:37 It's funny that you mentioned that we're on the topic of the Fords and that we, we both agree that Kevin Harvick has found a way around way around it, uh, when he retires after this year. If that whole team cannot figure it out, they are in so much trouble. Um, but I am curious what you think about a guy like Ryan Blaney this week who I don't necessarily think of who, who is in a Ford who is probably the one other guy that we can rely on to have good speed and maybe get it finished. Now granted he might be one of the more overrated drivers in the series just because it's been so long since he's won. And, and even in the final year of, you know, the last car that NASCAR had, the Gen six car, you know, speed was always there, just kind of got in his own way at times and couldn't get a win. Uh, I think he went winless last year. He is winless so far this year and, and again he's in a, Speaker 3 00:14:31 Well technically he won the All-Star race last year Speaker 2 00:14:34 <laugh>. That is true. Uh, didn't get him. Speaker 3 00:14:39 Oh not without controversy cuz he wasn't like his window net wasn't pop. Speaker 2 00:14:46 I remember that. Like he was Speaker 3 00:14:47 Holding, he was literally holding it up but Right. Um, speaking of like, I would trust Logano more this week than Blaney Speaker 2 00:14:56 Esp Well that I get because Logano won this race a year ago after he punted William Byron outta the way. Speaker 3 00:15:02 Well okay, but he was also on the pole. He also, he was, he was Speaker 2 00:15:05 Gonna pass Byron regardless, so he just didn't need to move him. Speaker 3 00:15:08 Right, exactly. That was like the thing. But he also finished fourth year in the fall. Yeah. Like he's one of two guys that finished top 10 in or top five in both races last year. Tyler Reddick the other one, which is an interesting thing as to do you trust him or do you trust the car more? Cuz if you trust the car, it's Kyle, it leans Kyle Bush. Right. But if you trust him being in a Toyota again, then you go Tyler Reddick. But he's Speaker 2 00:15:32 Also, he's the kind of like aggressive driver that does love to run the higher line at this type of track too. Speaker 3 00:15:37 Yeah. And you know, there, there's some concern with Kyle Bush. He's either gonna finish top seven or he is gonna finish outside the top 20. That's basically what he's done in the last <laugh> eight races here. If you look back in his last eight races, he has four top sevens and four that are outside the top 20. So it's an all or nothing thing with with Kyle Bush. But getting back maybe buy, Speaker 2 00:15:57 Do you maybe buy into Kyle Bus a little bit more because he did win an auto club in this car? Speaker 3 00:16:01 Yeah, he's shown good speed in at similar races. This car was fast. He's also gonna have, um, you know, just a, a good team around him that seemed to grasp what what they could do here last year given Tyler Reddicks uh, runs. And I do think that Kyle Bush is a sneaky tire management guy. Like we have to remember that Kyle Bush has won every racetrack that the NASCAR cup schedule has run on except for a couple of the brand new ones that they've only won like run once or twice. Right? Like he hasn't run at the Roal. Okay. Never won it the they to a road course or Road America. But those are all like brand new. They've only been run like a total of six times. Right? Yeah. Um, Coda cuz again, only been run like twice. Um, so, you know, going back to the, to the f to the Fords, I, I don't know, I think Ryan Blaney has to show me something at this point. I don't really care like how mid-tier he's priced. He's still struggling to pay off value. Speaker 2 00:17:16 What are you doing with a guy like, uh, chase Brisco who in this intermediate package has really had his struggles and he isn't afford but he's 7,300. The price tag just continues to drop. Um, this, this is the cheapest he's been since the Bush Light clash with the Coliseum. I mean it just seems like Stewart House racing in general is, is struggling at times aside from Kevin Harvick, but they're especially struggling with Chase Visco who just, it seems like the last two races he's just been routinely running 30th. Speaker 3 00:17:48 Yeah, I just think, well I think it's, I think part of the issue is that if they don't nail the setup in the, in the shop, there's not enough track time for them to figure out. Like if it is off by a lot you're screwed. Yeah. Like there's been a ton of talk this week. Um, I don't know if you saw the Bob Pops videos, um, that he was blitz Twitter with the other day about, you know, it's throwback Friday. So what do these drivers want to throw back to that they used to have and almost everybody said more testing, like more track time. Kevin Harvick said it. I think Denny said it. I think Kyle Bush said it. Um, I don't think Larson said it cuz he drives so much for everybody else that he doesn't <laugh>. Um, but I, I think that's part of the problem is that they know what they need for Kevin Har cuz he's driven all these tracks a bunch, but the other guys are still trying to figure out what they need aside from Almar and if the setups were on, they're just up a creek. Speaker 3 00:18:49 Like you can't, like it's like what we saw with Penske at Dover, right? Their setup was so far off that they had no time to do anything with it then. I mean obviously weather played a role there but um, uh, yeah I think there's a handful of four guys that you can just plug in and know that you can expect decent days. I think Logano is one of those guys again, despite me saying that he's been hard to peg, I think in intermediates he's fine. I think everywhere else it's kind of tricky. Um, Kevin Harvick is a guy who you can basically always count on for a top 10 shot, uh, if not better here by the way. If you want to bet him he's going off a plus two 10 on BET MGM for a top five. He has seven top six finishes in the last eight Darlington races. I don't know why you're getting that big a plus money, but <laugh> it's kind of absurd, um, that we're still, that we're still getting that big a plus money on a top five for Harvick. Uh, who by the way has looked pretty good in intermediate packages this year. Yep. Speaker 2 00:19:51 Um, all right, so as far as line construction goes, uh, for tournaments, are we looking more at two dominator builds? I noticed that I've already got the truck playbook up for Friday night's race, but I noticed when I was looking at the, you know, loop data and all that, you know, it seems like for the trucks at least there was like a, a good one, a dominator and then there was like a one B dominator and maybe there was like a handful of other drivers that were collecting a couple fastest laps, maybe five laps led if they stayed out on older tires. But are you, are you basically going for the same kind of lineup strategy for the Cup race and maybe even the Xfinity where you're looking for like one guy to really go out dominate and win and then you get another guy that can maybe lead about 30 to 40 laps? Speaker 3 00:20:33 Yeah, I would say so if we look back here, um, at last year's fall race, which was a lit little different, but Kyle Bush started fifth led 155 laps. Uh, he wound up finishing 30th cuz he, his engine went kaput. Uh, but then the next closest guy was 64 laps with Joey Logano who started on the pole again. So that's two, two races last year he was on the pole and then you have a 50 lap lead, 48 laps lead. You know, the Eric Jones wound up winning from 15th leading 23 laps. So, you know, it feels like if we go back to the spring race, which is more comparable obviously for weather and whatnot, Logano won it from the pole led 107 laps and the next closest guy, um, you know, we had Larson leading 30, we had Denny leading 42. William Byron who was two laps away from winning Roundup, finishing 13th cuz he got, you know, walled by Logano LED 24. Speaker 3 00:21:37 So, you know, it seems like over the course of the 290 or so laps that they're gonna run, it seems like in this next gen car we've had, and this has been the case over a bunch of intermediates, is that you have one guy who leads a bunch of laps, um, and then a few others that hit like 50 to 65 or so. Um, it's a little tough to go back to the 2021 race cuz it, it was a 500, you know, the 500 miler. Yeah. Or um, but it was also not the next gen. You had two dudes lead at least 145 laps in Larson and Hamlin. Um, so those two guys dominated that race. Um, but I would say much like Kansas kind of expecting a similar build to work out where you have one guy lead a chunk of lap and then kind of a one B guy get like 50 to 60. Speaker 2 00:22:36 Now I know we are recording this before practice qualifying. We do not know the starting order. Um, so we won't dive into too many specific drivers, but I am curious as to what you think about Ryan Newman this week. He's 5,800 uh, in the Rick Ware car, but do you suspect that maybe they have a little speed in this car with the S h R affiliation? <affirmative>? Maybe he shouldn't Speaker 3 00:22:59 Kinda wanna say Speaker 2 00:23:01 On DraftKings. Speaker 3 00:23:02 I kind of wanna say well I'll take a shot on him. Like who else can we, I don't even wanna say rely on in that, in that price range Speaker 2 00:23:12 Talk to, Speaker 3 00:23:14 I mean yeah or Joy <laugh> every week. Um, which by the way, dk what are you doing man, can we get this guy up? So he is not like the chalk budget play every single freaking week. Um, he just keeps, he just keeps showing up and they don't change his price and they do not, and I don't really, I don't really get it cuz in the last 5, 6, 7, Speaker 2 00:23:39 He's only had like one bad race in the last two months. Speaker 3 00:23:42 Nine, going back to the Daytona 500, he's hit five x value like nine times. Yeah. And he's had only two RA or three, three races in that stretch. Well Daytona I guess, um, where he's hit single digits, but everything else has been in the last five races, he's topped 26 points in four or five of them. Speaker 2 00:24:05 He's never been 6K in a single race. Speaker 3 00:24:08 No, but if he's 5K and basically ever or you know, or Speaker 2 00:24:12 No, but I'm saying like I he should be Yeah, he's, he's consistently hitting value and he's, he's as long as he's, he's 5,500 this week, he's an easily, he's, Speaker 3 00:24:21 I mean the fact that Ryan Newman comes off the shelf in what is widely considered one of the worst cars on track and he's 50 and he's $300 more than Todd Gilland is a bit of a slap in the face I would say. That's Speaker 2 00:24:35 Why I'm saying he should be 6K at least. Speaker 3 00:24:37 Yes. Yeah. No Gilland should be, he should certainly be more than Gregson. Are we serious? Yeah, like Speaker 2 00:24:44 Brax that's winning crick. Speaker 3 00:24:46 Braxton can't even win a win a sideline fight. Did he Speaker 2 00:24:49 <laugh> Speaker 3 00:24:52 Like it's amazing the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 races for Gregson. He hasn't topped 13 points on dk. Speaker 2 00:25:05 That's bad. Holy crap. No wonder they're switching to Toyota Speaker 3 00:25:10 Like he's hit 42. He hit 42 at uh Atlanta, but then he had a run where he didn't top 20 for a while and like, like dating back to the Daytona 500. Sure he beat it in the Clash and the duals. But who cares about those dating back to the Daytona 500? Noah Jackson is top 20 DK points one time. Speaker 2 00:25:35 Ooh Speaker 3 00:25:39 It's amazing. And yet, and yet he's priced higher than Toand and Speaker 2 00:25:44 I mean he's still making headlines for the awful haircut and getting punched in the face. So Speaker 3 00:25:48 I mean Speaker 2 00:25:49 He's remaining relevant. Speaker 3 00:25:51 I mean sure. But um, I don't know. I'll take a shot on Newman. I mean Newman ran decently well here. It's not like one of his best tracks. Um, sure the equipment is questionable but what do we remember from Newman being hard to pass? Yeah. What is it tough to do with Darlington? Hard to pass. So if he can at least keep the car on track, I think he outruns like I think he finished his top 30, which if Speaker 2 00:26:21 He would this also be his first race in the next gen car? It has to be right? Speaker 3 00:26:28 It has to be I think. Yeah. Yeah. I would think. I don't recall him racing last year. Speaker 2 00:26:33 I don't think he did. Uh, but we have uh, a few minutes left. Uh, we have, can't really talk too much from a DFS perspective, but are there any bets, I know you mentioned before we started recording that you had finished your betting article for the race. Are there any that you may want to hint at or just give away for free? Speaker 3 00:26:53 Um, I can give 'em away cuz the picks voice piece, I mean you can go read the explanations. Okay. Em, and I'm not gonna give all of them out, but the, that's going up today, it's gonna be free. I'm gonna mention one of them in the Grovers Grill, that's the Kevin Harvick plus two ten one. I just think that that's just a misprice. Uh, Speaker 2 00:27:10 Is that for a top five or top 10? Speaker 3 00:27:12 Top five. Speaker 2 00:27:13 Top five. Speaker 3 00:27:14 Uh, he's finished top six here, seven out of the last eight races at Darlington. Uh, he's shown solid top 10 speed at basically every comparable track, uh, this year. So that's one that I, that I really like. Also top fives, it's interesting cuz there's basically only one guy who's consistently negative odds for a top five and that's Kyle Larson at minus one 18. Um, so that's, that's interesting to me. Um, if you wanna look at a top 10, the top 10 bet I really like is Austin Dillon, uh, at plus two 50 through bed mgm, um, if you're looking elsewhere he's plus two 30 on Bandel for that plus 2 25 at Caesars. So plus two 50 at bed, MGM is the best return. Yeah. Um, he has finished top 10 in most of the intermediate tracks this year. He has the seventh best average finish in the last eight Darlington races at 11.9. Um, he's got five top tens in the last eight Darlington races and I just feel like over the last year and a half, like he's gotten a lot better intermediate tracks on his own and then you add to the fact that they've gotten way better at intermediates with Kyle Bush there this year. Speaker 3 00:28:36 Uh, I, again, I I don't see sure he is going off at a hundred to one to win, which I also by the way, put as my long shot bet. Um, so uh, I don't know, plus two 50 for a top 10 is is pretty decent return. Speaker 2 00:28:52 I'm looking at uh, bet n gm, uh, they have a matchup between Daniel Suarez and Noah Grason. It's not great value but Daniel Suarez is minus 2 25 and we've talked numerous times about just how bad Legacy Motor Club is right now and, and you just went on uh, small rant about how bad Noah Grason has been, especially finishing races of Blaton. Yeah, Suarez a year ago in this race he finished 10th uh, September of 2021. He finished 13th and I guess the, in even last Falls race he started 36th and finished 18th. I have much more faith if they both run a clean race in Daniel Suarez and that team's speed than I do of Noah Gregson. So you know, if we're taking head-to-head, I would take Daniels Suarez even though it's minus 2 25 over Noah Grason bra. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:29:38 All right. So I'll, I'll throw out my interesting head-to-head and I know people, people think I have an infinity for Bubba Wallace but I really only put 'em in there when it's like, you know, when it makes sense. Um, and this one to me seems a little odd. So DK has Bubba Wallace against Brad Klowski head-to-head. Klowski is minus one 30 and Bubba Wallace is plus 1 0 5. That seems interesting. If you look at their track histories, clearly Brad Klowski has the advantage there though I will say that they finished fairly close last year in the fall. Klowski P seven and Bubba P nine. If you look at this year though, over the four comparable races, they have almost identical average finishes just with the pure average finish. If you look at auto club and say, okay, Bubba blew an engine finish P 30, but he was really running inside the top 10 when that happened. Speaker 3 00:30:33 Bubba has a average finish between seventh and eighth and the four intermediate races this year. Um, and then if you dig a little deeper you'll find out that Bubba Wallace and Klowski are even odds to win outright. Bubba is shorter odds in top three finish, he's shorter odds in top five finish and he's shorter odds in top 10 finish. So what does that tell you? It tells you that Vegas thinks he has better chance of finishing top three, top five and top 10 than Klowski, yet Klowski has better odds to beat out Wallace head-to-head. It doesn't, that doesn't really make a lot of sense. So I'm not saying I'm terribly strong on Wallace this week cuz this hasn't traditionally been a good track for him. But if all he has to do is out shine klowski and you get a plus 1 0 5 return Yeah, that's fine with me. Speaker 2 00:31:22 That's a nice bet And I mean it, it doesn't necessarily hurt but I mean he's also running the truck race and truck time is truck down. Speaker 3 00:31:28 Yep. Speaker 2 00:31:29 All right. Well Matt, thank you so much for your time. That was Darlington. Uh, we will be in the NASCAR DFS Discord all weekend answering your questions. So best of luck to you Matt, and best of luck to the FA Nation.

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