Episode 11

April 21, 2023



Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast

Apr 21 2023 | 00:31:03


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz preview the DFS strategies and plays for Sunday's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Which manufacturers, drivers, starting positions, and bets do they like for this Sunday's Cup race?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine, Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back to the NASCAR D FS podcast stream through the Better Sports Network app. I'm Dan Mailn and I'm joined as always by Matt sells the F s w A three time NASCAR writer of the year. We are fresh off a week at Martinsville and we are now going to attract completely opposite of Martinsville. Gone is the half mile flat track and we are now at a 2.66 mile super Speedway with over 30 degrees of banking in the turns. Matt, how are you? I know we don't really get too excited for Talladega from a DFS perspective, it's, it's a much better race to bet if you can find the right long shot odds. But how are you feeling coming off of Martinsville and heading to uh, guess the second or third Super Speedway track, depending on how you look at the schedule? Speaker 3 00:01:07 Yeah, I mean it depends on how you count, uh, Atlanta, right? Yeah. Like is it actually a super speedway or whatnot? Uh, I thought Martinsville was an interesting race. I'm not gonna say it was good. I'm not gonna say it was bad. Um, it's an interesting race. I thought strategy and pit decision had a lot more to do with it than who was actually fast. Although I will say for those of you saying you couldn't pass late, what did Kyle Larson and Martin Tricks do in the closing laps cuz they were flying and passing people without clean air. Um, but yeah, Talladega is far different. We go from the shortest track on the schedule and the one that's been on the schedule for the longest to the longest track on the schedule two point, well the longest oval I should say. There are road courses that are longer but the largest oval on the schedule at 2.66 miles per lap. Speaker 3 00:01:58 So, um, yeah, this one is highly unpredictable. Uh, flashback to Daytona who had Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Winning the Daytona 500. I mean, I know he is a good plate racer, but these tracks produce a whole bunch of wild cards. Um, but I I I like what you were saying with betting the, the long shots, if you're gonna bet betting long shots here is, in my opinion, the, the more fun way to do it. Sure, you could put the favorite, but uh, this is where you really make it. Like Stanhouse was what, 40 to one at Daytona? Yep. Um, you know, McDowell's hit at 66 to one a couple years ago. We saw Al Marola hit at Talladega a few years ago at longer Odds. Cindrich was, what was Cindrich last year for the Daytona 500? He Speaker 2 00:02:50 Was, I can't remember if I wanted to guess. I'd probably say 50. I mean he, Speaker 3 00:02:53 He was somewhere in the 30 to 50 range somewhere in there. Yeah, Speaker 2 00:02:56 He was a rookie and he's a Penske driver, but he was, was still a rookie in, you know, his, his full season debut in NASCAR and, and still impressive that he won. Just, he hasn't done anything since he's still in that hangover. Speaker 3 00:03:08 Yeah, I mean that's a very long day. Don't hangover to be honest. <laugh>. So, uh, this pod's gonna be a little different. A we're recording it on Thursday morning, um, east Coast time. It's about 1130 in the morning Thursday morning right now. Um, typically we record NASCAR pods on Saturday following cut practice and qualifying. So we know where guys are starting and how the strategy and the slate breaks down. None of that matters for Talladega <laugh>. This is like Drew Carey on uh, whose line is it? Anyway, we award the points, but the points don't matter, right? Like <laugh>, like who cares where anybody's starting? Cuz you can win from literally anywhere at Talladega. Speaker 2 00:03:47 Yeah. So, um, so we will dive into the, the, the strategies. Um, yes, probably offer up some bets if we can fund any. Um, unfortunately I only have access to DK sports book. They drop their lines later than almost every other book and they're usually the worst when they do drop 'em. Um, but for overall, from a DFS perspective, you know, last week was I always advise people that, you know, Martinsville is one of my favorite, uh, tracks for dfs. Um, I did pretty well with the Xfinity series race, not so much on the Cup series race, but what is the general bankroll approach for Talladega? I know how I approach it with just, you know, three tournament or three GPP lineups. I'll play them in some, you know, definitely the chrome horn, which is like $4 per entry and then some three entry max contests as well. But, you know, uh, I always scale back how much I play for Talladega just because, you know, we've, we've seen enough races at Atlanta now, uh, between this year and last year and Daytona and Talladega and it's just, you could put all the research in and know how to build the proper lineup, but at the same time, like you're, you're just still trying to fight against a lot of just unknown factors of this race. Speaker 3 00:04:55 Yeah, your guy could be having a great race and then some guy 17 cars in front of them has a problem and all of a sudden your guy gets caught up in it in a blink of an eye and, you know, it just happens. Even even guys who are really good plate racers and we'll talk about a few of them. Um, you know, the, to give you, to give you an idea, right? If you look over the last eight Talladega races, Ryan Blaney has the best average finish in that span at 9.9. He's barely averaging a top 10 over eight races. Okay? To put that in perspective, last week for Martinsville and the, you know, two weeks before that for Richmond you had like seven dudes averaging better than a top 10 finish over the last eight of those eight or 10 of those races. So that's just how unpredictable, um, this, this track can be is that even, even the best guys, even Logano and Blaney and to a a degree Chase Elliot, um, Speaker 3 00:06:01 They, they all have average finishes of like 10th or worse <laugh>. So it's, it's highly, it's highly volatile and for that reason I also generally play uh, light and this is a different, so let's dive into cores a little bit cuz you and I have been building with cores, you know, core plays for a while. So we'll come up with three or four guys that we like to pair together, um, and then just fill in the others and get some exposure to, to other folks. Are we doing that this week or are you putting different, everybody's different in, in different lineups. Speaker 2 00:06:44 If I'm doing three lineups, I'm already operating with a much smaller player pool or a driver pool in general. So I, I'm not opposed to, you know, finding three guys that I really like that are starting further back but also offer a good amount of leverage as well. I think that, you know, we talk about it all the time in cash games. Like you, you will see DFS players that just played the six drivers starting in the back and you can easily cash that day assuming that they all move up and they, or, or, and you may even only need four or five of them to actually finish the racing. You know, for cash games you can handle a driver wrecking out here and be perfectly fine. Correct. Speaker 3 00:07:21 Um, Speaker 2 00:07:22 You'll see Speaker 3 00:07:23 Probably a Speaker 2 00:07:23 Lot harder. Yeah, you'll see probably 20 to 25% of cash lineups maybe, uh, playing just drivers starting well outside the top 30 and then you just kind of go from there and you just eat the chalk. Um, so, but if I'm doing tournaments, I'm, I don't hate the idea of having a two or three driver core and then just building in other tournament plays that are starting probably a little bit higher that'll have less ownership but maybe a little bit more win equity because the ultimate lineup in the tournament, you, you still want the winner. Um, it's really hard to hammer down dominator points at a super speedway because the fastest laps are typically more spread out. Although we could see one or two drivers each lead 30 to 40 laps maybe in, you know, could even drop that down to like 20 or 30 laps. Speaker 2 00:08:11 But again, those dominator points are useless if they're not finishing well. Uh, so I think like if I'm gonna have a core, I probably want a good core of two or three drivers that are starting pretty far back offering plenty of pd, but also guys that are, that are gonna be lower owned as opposed to like if Denny Hamlin goes out and he qualifies poorly outside the top 25, that's going to be a very popular tournament play. And so if I'm only doing three lineups and I want to go for a large takedown, I would just not plate any ham but still find leverage elsewhere. Speaker 3 00:08:42 Yeah. Um, I'm with you again, it's gonna depend. Look, you can feel free to max enter whatever you want. Um, if you max enter it widens your player pool. If you do that, however, do not go above like 35% exposure to any one driver. Yeah. Because again, literally anything can happen in these, in these races. Speaker 2 00:09:02 I've thought about Max entering the 50 cent mini max, you can get 150 lineups in there for just 75 bucks. Now granted, I, I typically would want to only play maybe 40 to 50, but if I was to max center at least I could just get plenty of exposure to a lot of drivers. I can widen my driver pool and then really in that format it only takes one of those line, one of those 150 lineups to pay off and you can have yourself a big day. Speaker 3 00:09:26 Yep. Um, if you do max enter, I would definitely do it on a smaller, um, <laugh>, something that's not gonna cost you your mortgage payment <laugh> tax center. Uh, cuz that's not exactly the best idea at Talladega. Um, I will say that my cores for these, these races tend to be built around manufacturers rather than grouping specific drivers. That doesn't mean they have to be on the same team, just means like we're looking to group Fords together or a group together sprinkle in some Toyotas cuz there's only like six or seven of them on the track at any given weekend. Um, but that's because you'll see as you watch the races that these teams and manufacturers operate together, they will pit the Fords together. They will try and pit all of the Chevys together. Although for some reason Chevy usually seems to be discombobulated and winds up pitting half of theirs with the Fords. Speaker 3 00:10:20 Um, and then Toyota will just go with whoever the biggest group is that's pitting cuz that helps 'em get the, you know, not lose the draft. Right. So, you know, with, with that in mind, that's how I'm building my lineups this weekend. Um, I'm not fully stacking the back. There's a lot of people that do that. You can do that for cash, just show up on a Sunday afternoon, say, okay, these are the six guys starting, you know, 33 through 37 or whatever, um, and just plug them in and then hope for chaos and then you're good to go in cash. That's, you're not gonna, you're not gonna win a GPP that way. GPP are far more nuanced. Um, even at a volatile track like Talladega, we're usually looking for a guy who's starting in the top 10 and then we're gonna put one guy starting 11th through 20th and then the rest of 'em we're usually gonna go between 21st and 28th. Speaker 3 00:11:12 Those are usually the guys that pay off the best. You can sprinkle in some starting after 30. But um, you know, over, over the history of doing this, the return on investment on those guys, they rarely hit the five x value we're looking for. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, it's much more likely that a guy starting like 28th hits it rather than a guy starting 35th. Um, so you know that that's kind of how I'm building mine. We will get qualifi, well this way we should get qualifying on Saturday morning. I know there's a chance of rain. Um, I don't think it's all that high though and if we, we don't then it doesn't particularly matter cuz it's not like we're targeting the puls sitter anyway. Yeah. Like lap led don't really matter. I mean sure they differentiate you a little bit. Speaker 2 00:12:04 It's nice to get them. If in stage two or even in stage latent stage one, I don't think that we would see this latent stage one but, or in stage two or early stage three at super speedways we do just tend to get long green flags single file runs. Okay. It's boring and basically from once you see a long single file run on a green flag, uh, at a super speedway, you might as well just take a nap, go do something else and then come check back in with about 10 to 15 laps to go because that's when they actually start to race for the win. Speaker 3 00:12:35 Well I mean I would tune in sooner than that, maybe 50 to go. But um, I mean I can't refute that that's, that tends to be what happens, especially in stage two. Stage one people are trying to figure out what exactly they have so that they can make adjustments if need be. Um, but you're not gonna see a whole lot of, there's not a lot of pit stops that change, uh, strategy here. The beginnings of the race tend to be fairly calm. Uh, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be shocked if we go the whole stage one clean and like somebody has a tire go down or somebody gets really loose. But Speaker 2 00:13:19 I don't think you're, we Speaker 3 00:13:21 Clean talladegas Speaker 2 00:13:22 I think. Yeah. And that's actually no I, I've already started writing out my Xfinity series playbook for the Talladega race and one thing I did note is that the last couple Super Speedway races, especially I think last Fall's Talladega race was if a very boring race, um, you know, you're not gonna see too many teams, you know, going for it all earlier in the stages. You know, everyone seems to know that you just need to be alive on the final in the last, you need to be on the Lee lap obviously in the final stage. Uh, so I don't think we tend, we will see as aggressive of a super speedway race. I think if there's going to be a wreck it's they're all going to come late in stage three as teams try to maneuver their themselves up to the front. Um, but I am curious because we always say, you know, there's no need for practice at a super speedway. Even when they did practice you never really did practice notes. But you know, for teams that haven't looked great this year and I'm specifically what I'm thinking about is Legacy Motor Club, uh, with no Speaker 3 00:14:19 Yeah, they looked Speaker 2 00:14:20 Terrible. It's looked terrible but this is also the kind of track where you, it doesn't really matter what the recent run has been. Right. Uh, because any driver con Yeah it's, it's a level playing field for all the cars and all the teams this week. So are you okay going to a driver like Eric Jones dis regardless of where he starts because he does have a really good resume and a good history on this style of track. Speaker 3 00:14:45 Yeah and he looked, I mean that's basically the only race that the 43 is looked good at this year was Daytona like he looked I guess okay to start Atlanta, um, Speaker 2 00:14:57 Finished sixth in both Dega races last year. Speaker 3 00:15:00 Yeah. So and he's got wins at at um, these races. So I'm perfectly fine with that. You will see guys who are known plate racers, uh, have elevated ownership this week. So Eric Jones is a guy like that. Corey Lejo is a guy like that. Um, even if people hate him, Bubba Wallace is a guy like that <laugh>, um, you know, the, the two Penske, well I guess all three Penske guys, two of them are the most expensive guys on dk. The other one comes at a bargain for his equipment cuz he hasn't done anything um, at seven grand. Speaker 3 00:15:38 So yeah, I mean I think we can certainly take shots on guys like that. I would even be fine taking shots on guys who've recently been penalized like on Mr. Austin Dillon who has a different crew chief this week because these races really don't like missing crew chiefs at these races isn't that big of a deal. It's not like the strategy calls it we saw at Martinsville that made all the difference late, right? It's, Hey the Chevys are pitting now let's pit and then as long as you avoid the wreck, we've got a shot to win this thing. So Speaker 2 00:16:13 Is the overall sentiment this week, whether it's betting, uh, because I believe uh, when we look at drafting sports book for example construction, construction manufacturer odds, you know, the Chevys are going off at plus 1 25 um, makes sense because they were running up front late in a, um, you know, Steadhouse did win the Daytona 500, but Ford is not too far behind at plus one 40 and Toyota is at plus three 30 simply because there's only like six cars in the field for Toyotas. But should we, is the general sentiment that the way that they set up the cars and just the aerodynamics of the Ford's, that they are probably, they should be the presumed favorites to win this race. Speaker 3 00:16:50 They should be, um, you know the, it's long been my belief that the grill on the Ford helps with the pushing and the drafting because the Squarest grill, um, no I wasn't doing the, the, you can't see me now thing I was just pointing at it. It's a, it's a very flat grill on the, on the front of the Ford, which means it lines up well with the bumper. So you know, pushing is a lot easier cuz if you get a little off center left or right, you can spin the guy and cause a massive wreck. So I do think that, you know, given the fact that all of the engines are basically the same, I'm gonna go with the aerodynamics of the car. Um, it also doesn't hurt that Ford typically has some of the best plate racers in their stable. Um, that's shifting a little bit now, but I still, I still, I would take those slightly longer odds on Ford's than the Chevy cuz I think they have pretty equal chances to win. So I may as well get a little bit more return for my investment. Speaker 2 00:17:55 All right. Uh, should we just dive in and maybe just preview a few players or free drivers rather? Speaker 3 00:18:02 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:18:02 Cool. Uh, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, we briefly talked about them. Uh, they are Team Penske. I might as well just go team by team with specifics. Um, Austin Cindrich, uh, since his Daytona 500 win hasn't done much, but still $7,000 for a Team Penske car. It is a Ford and we just, you know, talked about what makes him so good aerodynamically on the style of track. Um, I'm guessing there's no real issue with Logano Blaney or Cindrich, um, even regardless of, of where they qualify, correct? Speaker 3 00:18:32 No, I mean would we have liked to have seen more out of them this year? Yeah, I mean it's hard to to, you know, refute that, but Speaker 2 00:18:42 Logano did win Atlanta. Speaker 3 00:18:43 He did win Atlanta. He did finish second at Daytona, so, so you know, there is that, and by the way, the laps let at Atlanta is ridiculous because it's still a mile and a half track. So don't look at Atlanta and go, oh, he led 140 laps, he could lead over a hundred Speaker 2 00:19:01 On. It's much easier to lead the laps at Speaker 3 00:19:03 Atlanta. Okay, well there's 300 something laps in the, you know, or 267 laps in that uh, Atlanta race. There's only like 188 uh, happening <laugh> on Sunday. So there's decided leave fewer laps. I don't have a problem with anybody from Team Penske. I think shark people are gonna be on Austin Cindrich to get the same equipment and a guy who's won these tracks at a steep discount. Speaker 2 00:19:34 Uh, sticking with the Fords, uh, Stuart Ho Stewart Hos racing is actually kind of all over the place in terms of pricing. Uh, yes ke Kevin Harvick, uh, is at 7,800 Chase Briscoe 79, uh, brand pre 73. They're all in this seven K range, which is actually kind of insane just because, you know, they do have the manufacturer advantage. Um, but they're all just priced like in the seven K range. And you know, we've said like Eric Alro is a pretty good plate racer. He won his dual at Daytona back in February, you know, he started fourth. Um, it, I I ha I feel like with Sr it always boils down a little bit more to where they qualify. Um, but at the same time, like they will have speed. Uh, they were, they all looked very fast last week at Martinsville. Obviously different beasts this week with Talladega, but it probably, whereas Penske we can probably just, you know, pay for Logano and Blaney for the win equity. I don't feel as good about Sr having as much win equity and the sports books will show that. Uh, but overall very friendly price tag. And this is a week also where line of construction, it doesn't really matter, uh, salary doesn't matter. Correct. You can leave thousands of dollars, you can leave anywhere from five to $10,000 on the table. I've seen optimal lineups at Super Speedway, it's worth, they leave over 20 grand on the table. Um, Speaker 3 00:20:48 Especially if you're playing FanDuel by the way, cuz everybody's starting in the back is like two grand. So you can, you can <laugh> make a lineup and leave like 40 grand on the table on FanDuel. Do I recommend it? No, but you can. Speaker 2 00:21:01 It's, it's the one week where you truly just don't need to spend all your salary and, and a lot of casual players still end up, you know, spending between I think 98 and a hundred percent of the budget. Uh, so you know, if, if you're leaving a ton of money on the table and just comfortable, you know, building a sound lineup based on you know, one driver in the top 10 and another, you know, in the teens and then a couple other drivers starting outside the top 20, you know and just leave money on the table. You're also a really good start with your lineup build but overall it's gonna depend on where position and where they start for sr correct? Speaker 3 00:21:34 Yeah, probably. I mean I probably feel most confident about Kevin Harvick but he's the best driver in that on that team. So they <laugh>, you know, they go hand in hand. Um, I thought priests looked pretty good at Daytona before he had an issue. Um, I don't know what to expect from Amarillo at this point cuz everywhere he's been that we thought he was gonna be good. He hasn't been. Um, so, and and Briscoe's a wild card just about every week. Speaker 2 00:22:04 Let's shift on over to Hendrick Motorsports. Uh, chase Elliot has some super speedway, uh, success as of as does William Byron. So, and Byron in general has just been on fire this year. Uh, last week was a bit of a dud and very disappointing on Martinsville. Um, but Kyle Larson is interesting because he probably goes out and qualifies very well. Uh, he's gonna be qualifying, I believe last of the 40 drivers trying to make this race and then he'll probably make it into the top 10 for qualifying. He's won two of the last three races here but finished outside the top 30 in Atlanta. Uh, and he started second at Daytona but finished 18th. Just not a very good plate racer. And he's even mentioned this before. Speaker 3 00:22:46 Yeah, I mean I think he's still not over the shock of winning in Martinsville to be honest. Um, cuz he never thought he was gonna win there. Um, you know, Hendrick is usually very quick at these super speedways. I mean Alex Bowman's been on the front row I think what six straight years at Daytona? Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, for the 500. So they usually have speed but it hasn't necessarily translated to good finishes. Like for example in the last six races at Talladega for Kyle Larson, keep in mind this is out of a sample of eight, he missed two cuz of the year he was suspended. Um, his average starting spot in that time is 7.7. His average finish is 27th. So not to just pick on him, there's plenty of guys that that do that. But if we're looking at Hendrick, you know Chase Elliot's average starting spot is 11th. Speaker 3 00:23:43 His average finishes 12.8, which I I think is second or third best in the field this week. Which tells you <laugh> how these races normally go. Right Bowman starts in the top 10, usually finishes just outside the top 20. Not to say these guys don't have top twenties or can't run well they just historically when you average 'em together, not, not quite as good. Byron's probably the second best guy um, in terms of historical runs here. Uh, so again, if they're qualifying up front it might take some heat off of their ownership. Um, but I would be very careful with Kyle Larson. I think a lot of people are gonna be on him cause he is just looked fast and I'm not sure that's gonna, you know, pay off for them. Speaker 2 00:24:30 Um, should we be excited about the RCR cars, Kyle Bus and Austin Dylan? Uh, they both were in contention to win at Daytona. Kyle Bus was running up front at the time of the late caution. Uh, I think it was from Daniel Suarez but you know, assuming that all things are, I mean I get the sense that Kyle's just kind of over the super speedway racing. Anytime like his truck team has to go to a super Speedway, he wears a shirt that says it's the most expensive weekend of the year. Um, it's, it's frustrating and it, it really just all comes down to, you know, where you are on the final lap. But assuming that we can get these guys in the teens maybe uh, and Austin Dylan's won the Daytona 500 before so uh, Speaker 3 00:25:11 Yeah he is also coming off a penalty so he's gonna want to get some points back. He has a different fruit. Justin Alexander who Speaker 2 00:25:17 It's a good track for him to go get those points back. Speaker 3 00:25:19 Yeah, I think Justin Alexander actually helps him on top of the pit box to be honest. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. Um, so yeah, I'm probably higher on Austin Dillon than Kyle Bush. They both did look good at Daytona, but historically speaking Austin Dylan's a better play racer. Speaker 2 00:25:35 Um, assuming J G R we're transitioning to the Toyotas J G R and uh, 23 Xi racing, I mean the noted ones are gonna be Denny Hamlin cuz he's won of the Daytona 503 times uh, in Papa Wallace just because he's had plenty of success uh, at Daytona and Talladega with the Winnet Dega. Uh, even though it was a shortened race due to weather still counts. Um, are there any other super Speedway drivers from the Daytona Toyota make? Sorry, uh, someone like maybe even Christopher Bell? Speaker 3 00:26:04 Yeah, I think Toyota could be sneaky now just because they've had success at Daytona does not mean that they will have success in Talladega and vice versa. Like we've seen numbers on, you know, Klowski and Logano and whatever and then you look at their Daytona numbers and they don't necessarily match up. Well the same thing can be said for Denny Hamlin, even though he dominates at at Daytona, he's only been okay at Talladega for whatever reason. Whether it be the slightly longer track, the slightly longer run to the finish, the steeper banks compared to Daytona. Not sure but my, you know, Bubba would be the top Toyota play for me, me simply cuz he's just very good at plate racing. Um, the last few plate races, he's been the one that's led the Toyotas, he's been making the calls on when they pit and where they go through the line and you know, whatnot. Speaker 3 00:26:57 But don't be shocked if you play these guys and then you watch them drop back a lot, a lot of the Toyota guys including Denny Hamlin will start real high and then people will play them and then they'll go, why is he running 36? Because this is what he does. He just hangs out in the back, waits for half the field to wreck out and then moves up and then goes and steals the top five again. So, you know, you, you'll see a bunch of guys do that, they just peel out when they feel the energy in the pack isn't right and then they just leave, you know, back out. Um, I don't know what to do about Martin TRX Jr to be honest. I feel like he's run better than his results show, which say basically every week Speaker 2 00:27:38 <laugh>, I mean I can sum it up and just say like it depends on where he starts. Speaker 3 00:27:40 Yeah, that's, if these guys are starting in mid pack, I don't want like really any parts of 'em to be honest. Speaker 2 00:27:46 <laugh> uh, we have a few minutes left. Uh, who are some value plays that we should be keeping an eye on this week? You know, Austin Hill opened as a 20 to one favorite in a Beard Motor sports car. Uh, he's now 45 to one on Draftking sports book. I still don't think he should be touching that, but you know, who are some value plays that we're looking at this week? Speaker 3 00:28:04 Um, I mean it d for payoff. I feel like Ty Dylan actually has a, a decent shot here this week. I know that car has been terrible. He's been atrocious basically all year. Daytona did not go his way to be honest. He was Speaker 2 00:28:20 Dead early in Daytona and I he Speaker 3 00:28:22 Was dead early, like Speaker 2 00:28:24 Massively overweight compared to the field. Speaker 3 00:28:26 Yeah, he uh, yeah it was <laugh> it was not not great. His engine died like two laps into the race. Yeah. Not a ringing endorsement. I understand. But there's still a shot. Harrison Burton actually looked good last year at Daytona until he got flipped upside down. Um, I, I think he's a, I think he's another guy who runs better than his results show. Speaker 2 00:28:52 I kinda like AJ Alman der cuz he finished, he started 30th and finished 16th at Atlanta. Uh, started and finished sixth at Daytona. Speaker 3 00:28:59 Yeah, that's a good point. Lejo in this range is obviously gonna be the guy that Brandon, Speaker 2 00:29:04 Everyone looks Speaker 3 00:29:04 At it and Justin Haley. So I think like your point on Almond Dinger is nice cuz he's sandwiched between Hailey and Lajoie who are two dudes that everybody goes to for Yeah. Plate tracks cuz Justin Haley's like 70% of his wins or something are at plate tracks like it's ridiculous. Um, and then like in this grouping, right, if we go below seven K on dk we got McDowell Jones, Ty Gibbs, Justin Haley, almond Dinger, Lajoie. I will bet you that Almond Dinger is the lowest play dude of all of those Speaker 2 00:29:37 Guys I would probably agree with you. Um, Speaker 3 00:29:40 I mean Gibbs probably second lowest just cuz it's Ty Gibbs and like the other dudes have wins. Well, Laroy doesn't have a win at these tracks, but he always is in contention for a top. He's in Speaker 2 00:29:55 Contention. Speaker 3 00:29:56 Yeah. Uh, McDowell's got a Daytona 500 win. Cindrich has a Daytona 500 Win Jones has won, um, multiple plate tracks. Justin Haley has won a Daytona race, so yeah, that's a sneaky, sneaky spot for those guys. Speaker 2 00:30:11 Yeah, there's a, there's plenty of upside in the value ranges week, but uh, keep an eye on where they all qualify, uh, and join Matt and myself in the NASCAR DFS discord this weekend. Uh, Matt, is there anything else you wanted to touch on or we good to send the people on their merry way? Speaker 3 00:30:26 Uh, no, I mean we'll have content out this weekend. My betting piece will be up on picks wise.com on Friday. Uh, it'll be free. Then there's the playbook that'll come out Saturday, uh, projections. Um, if a guy's not in the playbook, doesn't mean you can't play 'em. I'm just picking the dudes who I feel have the best chance to help. You'll win money. So, uh, look for that. Core plays will be out Saturday and I'll be in Discord all weekend. Speaker 2 00:30:50 All right. Thank you so much man. Best of luck to you and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:30:54 Best of luck FA Nation.

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