Episode 9

April 09, 2023


Food City Dirt Race DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Food City Dirt Race DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Food City Dirt Race DFS Preview

Apr 09 2023 | 00:27:06


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz preview the strategy for NASCAR DFS for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway following the Heat Races on Saturday night. Get a breakdown for Cash and GPP strategy as well as how to read race results from past dirt races.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast. I am Dan Manen. I am joined by the Fs w a three time NASCAR writer of the year Matt Sells. We are recording this podcast shortly after the NASCAR Cup series heat races wrapped up at Bristol for the dirt action this weekend. It is about 20 minutes until line o'clock for the truck series race, but we know the starting order. We did not get practice on Friday. Matt, how you doing? How was Richmond last week and uh, how excited are you for Bristol Dirt for the third year on our own? Speaker 3 00:00:58 Uh, I'm pretty good. I felt like I had a really good read on, on Richmond, um, for all the content. Um, it did suck though Byron going down late, really killed <laugh>, really killed us. Um, that, that definitely sucked. Byron spinning in overtime was unfortunate. Um, or late in the race I should say. Um, I'm looking forward to Bristol Dirt. Actually. I would've liked to have seen practice a little bit more. I think we would've seen some crispr uh, heat races if we had gotten practice cuz some of the guys were noticeably loose. Some of them got loose as it went. Some of them were noticeably tight in the heat race. Um, but I don't know, I don't share Kyle Larson's, um, disdain I should say for the Bristol Dirt race. I think it's, oh look, I think it's a nice change of pace. We don't need two concrete Bristol races a year. Speaker 2 00:02:04 Well, I think that we can probably just pivot right into contest election because I think where you and I might disagree is that, you know, before we, we started, we started recording the podcast, you said that cash is viable this week. Uh, I still don't feel good enough, uh, at that point to actually play cash games. Um, I'm, I'm curious what your approach would be for that or if you know, if this is still gonna be a week that we recommend to scale back how much you play. Cause I'm only doing five lineups in the chrome horn. I'm calling it a day. Um, but I am interested to see like, you know, why you think cash is viable and how you should approach it this week. Speaker 3 00:02:41 So I think it's viable because there's not one chalk lineup, right? The last few weeks we have said there's one chalk lineup, you know, stay a little bit away from cash because that chalk lineup, if you don't have it, uh, and it hits, it's gonna be basically impossible to cash. Um, money line's gonna be pretty high on, on those builds this week. I don't think that there is a chalky cash build. I think there's a bunch of ways you could build for cash. Doesn't mean it's safe. No, I'm not saying it's safe. All I'm saying is that it's viable because you may sneak into the money line even with chaos erupting because there's not a like, you know, one or two specific builds that everybody on the planet knew was coming, right? Because we had that the last few weeks, right? Two weeks ago, how many times did we see the same build for Coda? Speaker 3 00:03:38 Like a bunch And then at Richmond it felt like there was maybe three lineups that you needed to have to have a shot and that pretty well played out given how the, the flow of the race went. Um, if I'm building for cash, look, have we seen a bunch of laps led at this race? Paice, we've seen him lead in chunks but we've never seen one guy go out and straight up dominate. And that includes the first year when it went to single file restarts halfway through the race because the dust was so bad. Um, you know, if we sort by average labs lead, if I run the last two dirt races, um, you know Bristol dirt races, Truex has 63 average lead. So he led a chunk of the first one. But again that one's a little interesting to me. Um, you know, Reddick led I think 59 last year. Speaker 2 00:04:37 He Speaker 3 00:04:38 Almost won 60 something last year. He almost won. He had terrible strategy at the end of the race and got eaten up and then wrecked out and got credit for like not a very good Yeah or Briscoe rather got wrecked. Um, so I think we see chunks of laps lead. It's 250 laps by the way. This is not a 500 lap Bristol race. It's 250 laps for the corporation. Um, the schedule lapses doesn't mean it's blown overtime. So I think you could build in a few different ways. I think you could build from, you know, guys starting up, you know, a few guys starting up front and then build for chaos with guys moving up through the field. Cuz we saw the passing was possible and the heat races guys were moving up all over the place in the heat races. Um, and for gpp I'd focus on one dude leading a bunch of laps and then finished position. Speaker 2 00:05:33 So is that for gps? Are you firmly committed to the one dominator approach or are you gonna, would you be tempted to do two now cuz a lot of my truck series lap and I haven't gotten my cup series built yet, but like my truck series lineup are built with, you know, two guys that I assume will dominate. But historically what we've seen in two races and this kind of goes for the cup and the truck series, like it's mostly been just one really good dominator and I can't even say like a secondary dominator, but it was almost like they just skipped secondary dominator went straight to tertiary dominator. And so you could be right with the one dominator build but it's, it's so hard for me to wrap my head around another dirt race for cup and trucks where we see just one solid dominator and you know what? I'm probably wrong and that could end up being the case. Speaker 3 00:06:19 So last year, if we go back to last year, which I feel like is a better comp, I know it's terrible to race off, just go off of one but last year was next gen car. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, right? We have that and they never went to single file resource which basically lock logano in cuz there was never gonna be passing on a single file. Speaker 2 00:06:37 Yeah that's the reason like I don't really like looking at the 2021 race too much because like they were making up rules as the race was going and then they did the single file restarts. It was just stupid Speaker 3 00:06:46 True X led a whole crap ton of lapse in that first one and then lost position on a pit again cuz you know it's truex in his pit crew sex <laugh> yet again at Richmond too when they didn't tell 'em about he had terrible tires on his car, um, that was some fun audio <laugh> to, to listen to. But so last year's race, next gen car, they also stayed double file restarts. The track was in far better condition, um, whatnot we had out of the 250 laps that they ran, reddick led 99 Suarez led 64 Briscoe LED 59 Larson LED 27 and Kyle Bush led one. So you know, and Reddick started third, finished second led 99 laps. Suarez started 21st, finished 12th and LED 64. Briscoe started fourth, finished 22nd cuz of bad pit strategy on like the last restart and wrecked out. Um, and led uh, a chunk. And then Larson started fifth, finished fourth and led a chunk of lap. So, and by the way, the only lap that Kyle Bush won or led was his last, last, last one. Speaker 2 00:08:00 The race. And didn't he give some like obnoxious and I'm a huge Kyle fan but even I'd cringed a little bit when in his Speaker 3 00:08:07 Post racing after he said he backing into the, the backing into wins, comment about Bowman like two weeks before and then he got handed one cuz Briscoe and Reddick wrecked out <laugh> right in front of him. He Speaker 2 00:08:21 Called himself the king of Bristol, something like Speaker 3 00:08:24 That. And he was only, he only won cuz Reddi couldn't stop spinning fast enough. Like uh, yeah it was, was that so? Um, but we saw a lot of passing in last year's race. If we go based on finish order, um, we had Bush one started at 11th, Logano finished, third started 10th, Blay finished fifth started 25th. McDowell was good. He's moved up several spots. So like you can move, you can move up here, it's possible. Um, but in terms of like dominator points, I'm fine going with a one dominator build and then getting a guy who's like a secondary dominator cuz I'm not sure that we're gonna see like even if you love Larson, right? Everybody is in love with Larson. Hi his dirt history, dirt background. Hell he won a dirt race like three days ago. <laugh> that he put on showed up without practice and won it. Speaker 3 00:09:23 But if you watched the heat race, that car was not good through 15 laps, priest was able to run him down and nearly won it from him. At the very end he was bumper to bumper with Larson. So I'm not sure these cars are gonna hold on as much as long as people think they will. I don't think tires are gonna be a problem. I just think they're gonna loosen and the track is gonna change. And so I'm, I'm not sure that we're gonna see one guy just go set sail like we tend to see at Bristol or other short tracks. Speaker 2 00:09:57 It's interesting that you say that. So if we look at, you know, the front few rows, you know you get Kyle Larson, I believe it's uh, Austin, Dylan on the front row and then surprisingly JJ Yaley at 4,900 starting P3 and then Christopher Bell Speaker 3 00:10:09 That's gonna be popular as hell cuz he can fall back like two spots and still hit value. Speaker 2 00:10:14 He can uh, he's basically Caden Honeycutt for the truck series race. Uh, that'll be running shortly. But Christopher Bell starts uh, fourth on the second row, extensive dirt racing background from him. Behind him will be Tyler Reddick. Is it very likely based on what you just assessed on Kyle Larson that we see Bell and or Reddick get to the front relatively quickly? Speaker 3 00:10:34 I would think so. Um, I mean Bell, if you're talking best dirt racers in the field, bell has to be in that group. Like he's beaten Larson head-to-head on dirt several times. Um, Reddick led a massive chunk of lap here last year. He's looked good in the two combined races. I know we don't really want to pay that much attention to the first one, but he did finish seventh on the first one after starting 27th. So even with single file researchers, the guy managed to move up 20 spots in the first one. So now one thing to keep in mind, Reddick isn't in a different car this year, right? Reddick is not in the eight car, although Kyle Bush did not look all that company in the a car on that dirt surface, that car was loose as all get out. Um, so that's, that's something to pay a little bit attention to. Um, as we're building I think the guys can, I think we're gonna see a bunch of people move up. I do. I am still concerned with your normal short track concern though. Like Speaker 2 00:11:40 The really is people getting laughed. Speaker 3 00:11:42 I am a little concerned with that still. Speaker 2 00:11:45 Well don't you think nascar, I mean I na thought hasn't crossed my mind too much for this race only because I feel like if a car spins um, just because of the surface, the lack of practice, it wouldn't surprise me if there, if NASCAR's very quick to pulling the trigger for cautions. Um, you know, I just, Ima like it's so hard for me to imagine like incredibly long green flag runs on a dirt race. I imagine there's gonna be chaos when there's 35 cars on a bull ring dirt track. Like I could see a caution maybe every 1520 laps. Speaker 3 00:12:18 I would, I would agree. But you know the 26 guys finished on the lead lap here last year in last year's race. Yeah, Cody wears started 35th and finished 26 by the way, he's not racing this week. He's taking care of a personal personal matter. So Matt Crafton is in that car, which is kind of sticky interesting to me. Um, given Crafton is pretty good dirt racer, he's in the truck race. Speaker 2 00:12:44 He is, my concern is that he just has no experience with the next gen car. Speaker 3 00:12:48 I mean there's that but as long as Speaker 2 00:12:50 Like I could see it being his situation where they just don't want him to wreck it. Speaker 3 00:12:54 Well okay, but you could say the same thing with Cody Ware last year, still finished 26. If he just avoids issues then maybe he winds up picking up some spots. Not recommending Crafton as a lock play. I'm just saying it's more introduction to me than Cody Ware. Um, so Cody where finished 26 last year, he was the last driver in the lead lap. Noah Gregson started 28th, finished 27th, right? He was two laps down Bubba Wallace finished five laps down stenhouse Mr. Dirt, uh, from Mississippi he finished 10 laps down. So like there are there we can build a little bit for chaos and some guys can get stuck like Den Hamlin had an awful race last year here. He started 34th, finished 35th, got as high as 15 Speaker 2 00:13:46 <laugh>, Speaker 3 00:13:48 Right? So like don't just assume that because it's a big name guy starting in the pack that you get built in pd. Anybody can screw up this this race. But I am a little concerned about, especially if they can keep it clean and guys like Larson and Bell and Reddick and you know, folks that have shown that they can lead lamps in dirt and keep it clean. You could, you could see not to the degree we normally see a Bristol where there's like 16 dudes on the lead lap by the end of the race. But there is a little concern that just because they're starting in the back and you're building for chaos doesn't mean that they're gonna move up like Daytona Talladega Speaker 2 00:14:30 You. So basically the concern is that they could be the chaos <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:14:35 I mean it happened <laugh> Chastain last year started 33rd, finished 33rd now fairness, he did move up to sixth at one point mid-race <laugh> and then finished 33rd but he only had like 77 laps in the top 15. So that's a, that's a race chart I want to see the flow of for <laugh> for Chastain last year. So you know, anything we, I don't think we're gonna see overheating issues. Those I think it pretty well been taken care of. Don't have to worry about tire wear. I don't suppose we're gonna see cars go flat. Um, do we have to worry about Speaker 2 00:15:20 You're not concerned about overheating? Speaker 3 00:15:23 No, not, not particularly. They seem to sort that out pretty well last year. Speaker 2 00:15:28 Okay. Because I mean I'm just being honest cause I didn't see the cup heat races as soon as the trucks were over I put on the UFC cart. But I know in the truck race they were pretty concerned about overheating just from mud getting stuck on the grill. Speaker 3 00:15:40 Yeah, they didn't like let's, I know Blaney was out front for most of, well all of his heat race, that car looked clean. He never complained about anything getting kicked up. Even guys like Logano who started, I dunno seventh and finished fourth and was in the fray, his car looked clean so I don't know if it's because it'd been packed from the trucks um, or that they've sorted things out but I don't recall that many overheating issues. Okay. Last year with the next gen car. So Speaker 2 00:16:15 Not that. So I know we don't normally preview too many drivers and I'm not sure if there's anything else that you really want to touch on, but like the playbook will be out late Saturday night. Obviously most of us will digest it Sunday morning and start building lineups. Who are some of the guys that you're looking at? Whether it's it's a dominator potentially or maybe it's just a PD guy or just a good GPP play that maybe is starting inside the top 20 that people overlook simply because you know, we look at the starting order. Kevin Harvick starting P 26, Suarez P 34 Bush or P 28 Denny Hamlin P 30, cuz Laski P 33. Like who are some guy like those guys are gonna, are just jumping off the page because they have PD and we know the equipment's good and they can finish well. But who are some guys that, like most people could be overlooking? Speaker 3 00:17:02 Yeah. Um, probably Byron starting 10th, like Byron's gotten better as a road racer. His, he hasn't always been, he, he is running the truck race so that should give him time. But like he started eighth and 19th and last two and he's finished sixth and 18th. So like he's at least hung out about where he started, right? Um, he's started 10th, he's getting truck race time. Um, now one other note about the track. They profiled the track this year to start where the cup race ended last year. Cuz they felt like the racing was very good at the end of the cup race last year with multiple lanes coming in. So they profiled it more to start where that one ended. So that could be why we saw some more passing in the heat races and whatnot. It's also just a better built track to be honest. <laugh>. Um, so that's one guy. I was gonna say Blaney starting ninth, but he led to every lap of his heat race. So I think people are kind of on to him a little bit, but hold on for you. Go for it. Speaker 2 00:18:11 6,400 Michael McDowell. Speaker 3 00:18:14 I like Michael McDowell started Speaker 2 00:18:16 17th last year finishing ninth and then the year before you started 16th and finished 12th. Now he's starting 13th. Speaker 3 00:18:22 You wanna know how much Michael McDowell this week? Go ahead. Before practice happened. Before practice happened and then was, you know, it was obviously rained out but Friday morning I wrote a bedding piece for picks wise, which should be up. Now I had a prop in there, now I'm betting you, you can't get this line anymore, but Michael McDowell on DK was going off for a top five finish at plus a thousand and I took it. Speaker 2 00:18:44 Was that 10 to one? Yeah, that's pretty good. Speaker 3 00:18:46 I mean he finished 12 in the first year, ninth last year. Flash to top six. It, you know, towards the end of the race he's sneaky good at challenging tracks. <laugh>, Speaker 2 00:19:00 I was genuinely worried about the loss of Blake Harris to Hendrick Motorsports, but that really hasn't hurt him too much. I mean he finished 28th at Daytona by that Daytona, but like over his last four races, he was six last week. He was 12th at Koda, uh, 13th at Phoenix, you know, 21st at Atlanta. But Atlanta's a hybrid super speed right now, but like the, the results are still there and, and he's qualifying pretty well too. So small team and a lost a very brilliant crew chief, but that team, that car and McDonald and General are just doing the best to get the absolute most out of it. And again, I just once again see this as a week where no, where people will overlook him because you know, at 6,600 you have, you have Davenport at P 21, right beneath him you have AJ Almond Dinger at 6,300. I can't speak to which Speaker 3 00:19:49 By the way, I don't want any parts of almond this Speaker 2 00:19:52 Week. I either, um, Speaker 3 00:19:54 I would take Haley though. I think Haley's a better road or better dirt racer than he gets credit for. Speaker 2 00:20:03 But yeah, like McDowell just jumps off the pages like a guy that's starting P 13, good value play and like I, as someone who's only playing tournaments, five lineups in tournaments, I would be willing to play McDowell in probably two of them. Speaker 3 00:20:16 Yeah, I mean I don't, I don't see why not. Um, priests at starting eighth at 7,000 is intriguing to me. I think Austin Dylan could be a sneaky dominator. I mean he's starting second so I don't know how much sneaky you wanna put in there, but like he has one of the best r dirt racers on the planet on his pit box this week helping the team out. And I think he's taking cues. Speaker 2 00:20:50 I'd say if I was making 20 lineups I'd probably be able to buy into that and maybe mix him into one or two lamps. But the problem is, is like he's, he's starting next to Kyle Larson, he's starting in front of Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. Um, I just see this as a scenario where he can easily get past and, and I could be wrong. Sure. Um, but I, I don't, as someone who's only doing uh, two lineups and with, with Dylan finishing uh, outside the top 20 in both the dirt races so far, I don't know if I love it but if I was doing 20 plus lineups, yeah I would probably mix him in just to get some exposure and to differentiate a bit. Speaker 3 00:21:31 I mean that's fair. He did have a handful of fastest laps last year to minimize the pain a little bit. Um, but uh, I don't know, I just think you can go a bunch of different ways with this build. Speaker 2 00:21:51 Uh, were there anything, was there anything else you wanted to touch on? I know we don't wanna dive into too many specific drivers. Um, just touch on a few cuz obviously we have the full playbook coming out now that we know the starting order. Speaker 3 00:22:03 Yeah. Um, no, I mean, we'll, we'll touch on a few. I have to figure out how I'm pairing this, pairing this playbook down cuz there's a bunch of dudes that have some interesting values and then there's some other dudes who like, I feel like I might have to talk myself into to, to play, but just because a guy is starting in the thirties doesn't mean we're locking him in. Right? Like Denny Ham was starting 30th. There's PD upside there. Sure. But like he's also not had the best of luck here. Like sure he finished third in the first one, he started second and then they went to the single file. He restarts. So he held his spot out to not get passed is basically what <laugh> what happened. Uh, there I would pay attention to the guys who were running the truck race in the Cup series on Saturday night. There's five of them, right? Like Byrons won. Matt Crafton technically counts as one Moana's running it Speaker 2 00:23:14 At Davenport. Speaker 3 00:23:16 Yeah, Davenport is running it and I'm trying to think of who the other one is. Truk running the, Speaker 2 00:23:26 No, Speaker 3 00:23:28 I'm trying to remember who the other, Speaker 2 00:23:32 No, Speaker 3 00:23:32 Look at the other one is two because there's five Speaker 2 00:23:36 Two minutes into the truck racing winter. Do you have a wreck involving four trucks? Speaker 4 00:23:40 <laugh>? Speaker 3 00:23:46 Yeah, there's a little bit of a mess. Speaker 2 00:23:49 All right. Uh, anything else you wanted to touch on? Uh, final thoughts? Speaker 3 00:23:54 No, I was hoping that uh, DK sports book would've their odds up. Ooh, hey we got some odds. They just, they just popped them for winter and top fives and top threes. So Reddick is now the COFA with Larson at nine to two. Speaker 2 00:24:11 All right, Speaker 3 00:24:13 Seatbelt at 13 to two then you got Bush at 10 to one. Logano Barco 12 to one, Byron Blaney 15 to one. I would take a shot on Blaney at 15 to one to be honest. Um, oh I need longer shot guys like Davenport at 60 to one seemed a little more intriguing. Like McDowell was still 10 to one by the way for a top five. I'm still taking it. <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:24:45 Wait, what were the odds? Speaker 3 00:24:47 McDowell was still 10 to one for a top five. Speaker 2 00:24:50 Oh it's not bad. Speaker 3 00:24:54 I'm still taking it. He's starting 13th. Still took a shot. Um, Logano still plus money by the way, for a top five As is Ryan Blaney. Ryan Blaney still plus 200 for a top five. You wanna take a guess as to what his average finish is over the last two of these races? Speaker 2 00:25:19 What are you talking about Speaker 3 00:25:21 Ryan Blaney? Speaker 2 00:25:24 Uh, I could try and cheat and look up driver s but just tell me, Speaker 3 00:25:30 Uh, six and a half. You finished eighth and the first one and fifth last year and you're getting plus 200 for top five. Speaker 2 00:25:35 I'd say that's pretty good. Speaker 3 00:25:38 Logano is plus money for a top for top five. He's finished first and third <laugh>. Like what, what are we doing? Nine, nine to five is what? Plus 180 for a top five for Logano was the best average finish in two races here so far. I dunno, that's interesting to me. I don't see any other props up right now but they're still just putting 'em up. I don't, Speaker 2 00:26:07 I think Speaker 3 00:26:08 Should Speaker 2 00:26:09 Be more on the betting market next week just cuz I'm playing so late for this race anyway. Like I, I'm not excited about betting it or even the DFS aspect of it so I don't mean to be hush hush but I think I'll be useful, more useful in the betting aspect next week. Speaker 3 00:26:24 Yeah, I'd be curious, praise four to one for a top five is intriguing, it's pretty intriguing. Um, nope, I don't have really anything else. I mean I don't really want to do dig more into the drivers cuz we saved that for the playbook. Yeah. Um, I do have a very interesting started though. Speaker 2 00:26:45 All right, well we will hint at it in the NASCAR DFS discord. But Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this weekend, Bristol Dirt Race at night and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:26:56 Best of luck FA Nation.

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