Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine.
Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm, NASCAR D f S podcast. I'm Dan Malin and I'm joined as always by the f ss w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells Matt, how we do And we are at Michigan this weekend.
Speaker 3 00:00:37 Uh, I'm doing pretty well. This is, this race falls at an interesting time in the schedule. We were talking about this before we started recording. It's the last quote unquote standard race. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> of the regular season because of the three races left before the playoffs start. Um, are two road courses in Daytona. So if you want a shot to win at a standard track, this is about your last shot, <laugh> to do it. Um, you know, are, are, do you wanna talk about the, uh, some of the news we just got during practice and qualifying and, and post qualifying?
Speaker 2 00:01:12 Yeah, I mean it, we started today as a pretty standard Saturday. Uh, we knew we were gonna get prac cut practice in qualifying. We were gonna get an Xfinity series race. And prior to qualifying we got some pretty big news. Uh, Noah Gregson suspended obviously for liking, uh, a meme on Twitter that was very insensitive. Uh, won't go get into the details, but it's, it, it, it's just a really bad look on an already forgetful and just awful season for Gregson in his debut with the Cup series.
Speaker 3 00:01:46 Yeah. So I would say he was ready for his rookie year to be over in June because I think it was, where did he wreck out? Like before the All-Star race or the Father's Day break, I guess? Uh, he wrecked out and they had an interview with him at the care center. Yeah. And he was just like, well, let's just get the car fixed up and get ready for next year. Yeah. I was like, it's the beginning of June, like may have been Kansas or something. I don't, I don't remember exactly, but I was like, oh, this kid's checked
Speaker 2 00:02:16 Out. Yeah. He just didn't seem interested.
Speaker 3 00:02:18 Right. Like didn't even care that the next week was like Sonoma didn't care that, you know, maybe it was Kansas next, I don't remember. But, so, you know, there's that. Then he goes and likes and Instagram post that was clearly racist, let's just put it that way. Um, and gets caught doing it and then gets suspended in for originally it was just for this race and then Josh Barry was gonna take a seat. Now NASCAR has suspended him indefinitely, which we're presuming is the rest of the season while he goes through sensitivity training and you know, same type of stuff that Kyle Larsson did. But it's bigger than that. 'cause now we have to see where he winds up next year. Because remember legacy is switching to Toyota next year from Chevy. So now does Toyota want him in the car? Do they have a problem with it? What happens if he's in the car and now he's gotta be, you know, manufacturer teammates with Bubba Wallace and the owner Michael Jordan. Like there's some interesting stuff. Not to mention his, his performance has not been good, like at all. Uh, Eric Jones in the same bad equipment has easily outperformed him.
Speaker 2 00:03:26 So yeah, Jones has turned it around.
Speaker 3 00:03:28 Yeah, he definitely has. We'll talk about him a little later in the podcast actually. Um, but then we also got some, some news on a, on a good note. Yeah. Martin Jr is coming back.
Speaker 2 00:03:38 Thank God. Yeah. I was not sure what, I was not sure what Joe Gibbs everything was gonna do next year if, if he stepped away.
Speaker 3 00:03:45 I, there's nobody able enough to fill in for him from Xfinity. Not like, you know, having a built-in replacement and Ty Gibbs and I'm not sure, again, we don't know who's actually free agents at the end of the year. 'cause driver contracts are usually very secretive. Like Corey, LA Joyce on a multi-year contract. Okay. Is that two years, is that five, is it six? Is it three? Yeah, nobody knows. Um, we're pretty sure none of the Hendrick guys are up. Right.
Speaker 2 00:04:15 Or uh, I think we can confidently say that all of Hendrick is at least locked up for the next two years, I would say maybe. Right.
Speaker 3 00:04:22 I think
Speaker 2 00:04:22 Probably longer, but I think we, we know who the core four for Hendrick are for the next two years.
Speaker 3 00:04:27 Yeah. Um, so I don't know exactly who's, who's up or who would fill that spot. You know, so good for, good for Truex, enjoy watching him. I think he still has enough to compete going into next year. Um, so that, that's some good news. I guess we'll have to see who fills in in the 42 the rest of the way. I know it's Josh Barry this week. I don't know who it is going forward.
Speaker 2 00:04:53 Yeah, that's a very interesting proposition because
Speaker 3 00:04:56 He's still, he's still competing for an Xfinity Championship. Right, right. And their schedules don't necessarily always align the rest of the way. Yeah, right. Then are you gonna talk to SS h R because he's under contract next year for Harvick? Do you want him driving a <laugh>? I mean, I guess it behooves s h r to have him get more track time in a cup car. Right. But it's a Chevy versus a Ford. So there's a little difference there. Uh, I don't know. It's very <laugh>. We'll have to see this call factor, make a comeback. I don't know. Oh
Speaker 2 00:05:33 My God. Uh, but we can at least turn our attention, uh, to Michigan, uh, especially for tomorrow's fire keepers Casino 400. Very interesting track with Michigan. It's a high speed, uh, intermediate kind of track where you just need the best engine and we, we will more than likely see the best teams and the best cars, uh, running up front. That's kind of how I analyze it for the Xfinity Series race. Uh, didn't really like previewing the Xfinity race because it's just in the Xfinity series for the most part. We've seen the best teams, you know, run up front and win this year. Um, and you know, there there's like a huge gap between the best teams and Xfinity and the, the really bad teams and the Cup series because of how they've set up the next gen card. They did try to level the field.
Speaker 2 00:06:18 So it's not as wide of a gap between the best teams and uh, the less funded teams in the Cup series. But overall, you know, like Michigan high-speed track, you need a good engine under the hood. I like, I, I know Pocono is not a direct correlation, but I do like, you know, if a guy was good two weeks ago at Pocono, I feel good about them possibly nailing the set up for uh, Michigan as well. But then, you know, we also have the standard intermediates like Kansas and Vegas and Charlotte that we can also turn to.
Speaker 3 00:06:45 Correct. Yeah. So in terms of correlation, we are avoiding auto clubs. This week does not correlate very well despite it being a sister track, almost identical size layout, whatnot. The high tire wear makes it basically uncomparable to Michigan. It's also slightly different in banking. Um, now it's defunct also 'cause they're tearing it down to go with a short track. Um, so what we're looking at this week, we're looking at basically a six race sample size. We're looking at Michigan from last year. We're looking at Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte from this year. Little bit of Nashville. 'cause it's the driving style's relatively the same even though it's like a mile shorter and Pocono from two weeks ago. 'cause it's basically full throttle all the time. It's a momentum track. If you nail the first quarter, it feeds into the straightaway. If you nail that one, it feeds into the short shoot. So those are pretty much the six tracks we're looking at this week for comparable data. Um, you can go back to previous Michigan races. I wouldn't really go past the Gen seven car though because everything changed with how it's driven. Um, but one thing we do want to pay attention to is if we're, if we're caught between a couple of drivers, I'm gonna give the edge to a four driver
Speaker 2 00:08:08 <laugh>. Is that simply because Kevin Harvey has just been so damn good here the last seven years with five wins.
Speaker 3 00:08:14 I mean he's been ridiculous. But no, Ford puts a lot of, I mean you do have to go back to like 2018 to find a Chevy that won this race and you gotta go back to 2015 to find a Toyota. Um, Ford puts a lot of pressure on their drivers to do well at this track. It's 76 miles down the road from Ford's headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan. Um, so there's that. But I also like the rou eights engines in the Fords. Okay. For tracks that are big momentum, a lot of throttle time, a lot of, you know, um, high speed. Right. The same reason we like 'em at plate tracks. Same reason I like 'em at the high speed tracks because their engines just do better with more on throttle time. Um, not to say we're avoiding Chevys or Toyotas, they'll be in there too 'cause we can't just build off of Ford. But if we're talking mid-tier guys and you're unsure based on like they've run basically similar stats and whatnot, I'm gonna give the edge to the for.
Speaker 2 00:09:16 Okay. Interesting. Um, all right, so with 200 laps on the docket for Sunday's race, we have two oh laps. Four oh miles. Yes. Uh, it's gonna come out to about 140 dominator points at the most. When you account for cautions and everything, we probably settled between 1 25 and one 30. Is it, this is shaping up to be your fairly standard uh, two dominated race. Would you entertain three domers? 'cause I think in this race a year ago, didn't we see like six drivers lead 20 laps?
Speaker 3 00:09:46 Let me check. I have a racing, I had racing reference open and now it got closed. So, um, it's, so for me, we're either gonna go with like one dominator or we're gonna go with like three dominators.
Speaker 2 00:09:59 You think that in the next gen car this could be a one down race?
Speaker 3 00:10:03 I think so. Like Michigan is typically like a very green flag friendly race. Okay. Like there's not usually a ton of cautions here. In fact last year, let's see, they had a grand total and they did have a decent amount of cautions seven last year. But um,
Speaker 2 00:10:20 It was the first year of the next gen car too. So
Speaker 3 00:10:22 It was the first year in the next gen car. Um, so lemme go ahead and check on the lapse led. Yeah. We had two at 38, 22, 29, 33, 31. Yeah. But the question is do we really wanna take what we saw last year as what we're gonna see this year? 'cause teams were still kind of figuring out the Gen seven car. Yeah. Um, but I do think with how certain teams have been running, I think we could see a little bit of a runaway, uh, from like midway through the race onward.
Speaker 2 00:10:55 All right. Uh, let's take a look at the starting order. Um, we have six drivers on draft Kings priced at $10,000 or more. Kyle Larsson is ten eight starting P 17. Denny Hamlin is ten seven starting P 13. Martin Jr. Back for another year. Ten five at and he's starting fifth. Kevin Harvick, we have to assume he is gonna be very popular. He starts P 22. Um, I'm gonna be honest, I didn't have eyes on practice or qualifying. Um, given the track history, uh, fairly safe to say that Kevin Harvick, even if he doesn't lead laps, but he's just so consistent with top tens, like cash game lock at that price tag. Or are you paying out for Dominators if you're going over the $10,000 mark?
Speaker 3 00:11:36 Well, I will be paying out for Dominators plus Kevin Harvick <laugh>.
Speaker 2 00:11:42 Um,
Speaker 3 00:11:43 Because at this point, given what he's done at this track, it's a little hard to ignore that. Right. We just talked about him leading 38 laps last year. Well he, he started 16th and pulled that off Right. Um, in the 2020 race. The, well he won both of them in 2020 by the way. They <laugh> he started the first one, third won it and then because he won it, he started 20th in the, in the second of the back to backs. 'cause they inverted the field. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> and they went out and won that one too. 'cause it's Michigan and Kevin Harvick and they go together really well. And by the way, he started 20th and led 90 laps. So Yes. Can, can a guy start mid-pack and lead a bunch of laps? Yeah, he can. Now granted that was not the Gen seven car. Um, but Kevin Harvick has started a bunch of different spots and won a bunch of races here and last year he came into Michigan without having a win and won it. It's
Speaker 2 00:12:38 True. And then he went back to back with uh oh 'cause they flip flopped Richmond and Michigan this year. 'cause it was, it was correct Michigan first last year then Richmond this year. Richmond, okay. Yeah. Uh, yeah it was a really good stretch for him last year.
Speaker 3 00:12:51 Yeah. Um, and he also looked pretty good at Pocono a couple of weeks ago. Mm-hmm. So yeah, I'm fine with Kevin Harvick. That's about where he practiced and no, I'm not that concerned about that 'cause it's Kevin Harvick, uh, Michigan. Um, you know, if you look at Nick Geffen's flags ratings, it is what it is. Like he's mid pac but again it's Kevin Harvick at Michigan and they will find a way to make that car better <laugh>. Um, as for other dominators, the two there that I'm most likely to pay up for is Truex and Hamlin. Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:13:28 I kind of agree.
Speaker 3 00:13:29 I know we just spent a whole bunch of time talking about boards but those two dudes have been fast at the similar tracks. Um, in fact I wrote my betting piece over at Pix Wise. I'm taking pre-qualifying. You could get Martin Truex Jr. Plus one 40 for a top five finish his average finish in those six similar races we talked about. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> 4.8 so I don't understand why it was a plus one 40 for <laugh> two x with a top five. He's starting fifth. I think he should hold it. I think he's jazzed up 'cause he announced he's coming back. Hamlin's won a couple of races at similar tracks.
Speaker 2 00:14:07 I think he has two wins at Michigan too, doesn't
Speaker 3 00:14:09 He? Uh, yeah, he also shoved Kyle Larson another way. Pocono to win that one a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2 00:14:14 <laugh>. Yeah,
Speaker 3 00:14:16 So there's that. Um, I ren I'll probably pay two. I think he might be the most played guy in this 10,000 range on DK 'cause he's the cheapest of them and he's been lightning fast basically everywhere.
Speaker 2 00:14:31 Uh, do you feel okay about Bell going out there potentially leading 20 to 30 laps and still grabbing a top five to potentially be optimal? He's 9,800, so he is right under this.
Speaker 3 00:14:40 Yeah, I mean he's starting on the poll. That's been a pretty good spot, um, for Michigan. Uh, previously, um, like we said, if we go back to back to last year's race, the first one in the Gen seven, uh, Bubba started on the pole finished second, LED 22 lapse in that race. So if you figure that a similar kind of showing that's perfectly fine at 9,800 bucks,
Speaker 2 00:15:08 Uh, how do you feel about Tyler Reddick this week? Historically, not a great track for him, but, uh, we do like the Toyotas this week. Um, the Toyotas have been much better at Michigan. And so this is, it's an equipment upgrade for him in my opinion. Um, and I just, I i it it's been kind of underwhelming for him this year because I think he had what three wins last year with R C R and he only has won this year on a road course. Uh, but starting P 15 at 9,200, like top five I think is within reach. And I, I do like to speak that he's shown, um, he finished second at Pocono a couple weeks ago. I mean, granted there was the whole Denny Hammond and uh, Kyle Larsson situation, but
Speaker 3 00:15:51 No, but he was there and challenging. Yeah. May have made a run at one of them, had the other one not hit the wall. Um, you, you talk about how it's been and it was a rough, it was a rough ride for him in Michigan last year in the eight car. He started sixth finished 29th. Not ideal. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Meanwhile, do you remember who piloted the 45 car in Michigan last year?
Speaker 2 00:16:14 Gibbs,
Speaker 3 00:16:15 Yes.
Speaker 2 00:16:15 Gotta stop in
Speaker 3 00:16:16 One of his first, in one of his first cup races. He started 11th and finished 10th. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:16:21 So if we trust the car and the team that knows how to set it up and Tyler Reddick is just piloting that car, it could be a very good solid day for Reddick. I mean he, if we're basing it off of, if we combine the two practice sessions and lap averages and whatnot, he ran about 10th. So there, there's some upside there with Reddick and perhaps we get some people going, well Michigan isn't that great for him. I don't really care what he did at Pocono. You know, maybe we get some leverage on the field with him.
Speaker 2 00:16:59 I don't hate that. I feel like the rest of the, well, I, I can't say I feel this way, it's just, it's just how it is. But the rest of the nine range is just filled with guys that are starting in the top 10. Uh, you got Blaney and Logano of Penske Chase Elliot starting P 10. Um,
Speaker 3 00:17:13 Do like, I don't like Castine at nine at nine
Speaker 2 00:17:16 Especially starting second.
Speaker 3 00:17:17 I just don't see the, do you see the upside there?
Speaker 2 00:17:23 No. And if I was to play him it would strictly be for leverage. Assuming that he can somehow get around Christopher Bell on the opening lap and maybe lead and win the first stage. But I'm kind of with you like since, since Nashville and I know he won Nashville and that was that you made the point that it's, it's it's, we can draw some comparisons just in the style of racing. Uh, but I, I just don't love the play because since that win he doesn't have any top tens and he only has one top 20 in his last five races. So it's, it's just hard to trust him. It would strictly be uh, a roster ship play for Ross Chastain.
Speaker 3 00:17:57 Yeah. Not to mention that he's starting second. Right. So that gets you 42 finish points. If he finishes second, you still need lapse lead and dominator points to hit. If we're looking for five x, which we are at nine k is 45 points, right? So just driving around for a couple hours in second place doesn't get you the value you need outta Ross Chastain
Speaker 2 00:18:22 Uh, the eight K range bubble Wallace man, I do like him this week. He's in a Toyota. Um, and he's,
Speaker 3 00:18:28 By the way, here's a, if we look at the six similar races, Denny Hamlin is tied with another driver for the most top fives in that span.
Speaker 2 00:18:37 Was it Bubba?
Speaker 3 00:18:38 It's Bubba with four.
Speaker 2 00:18:42 I mean he won Kansas last year, surprisingly
Speaker 3 00:18:45 Run a hole here last year.
Speaker 2 00:18:47 Yeah. Coming off a really good run last week at Richmond. I mean led 80 laps, I mean finished 12th, but either way really good showing from him last week and gets a a $1,300 price tag bump this week. But yeah, I mean he and you don't need dominated points from Bubba at all. Like if he can finish top five again, he's probably optimal at just 8,800. Um, yeah. How do you feel about Gibbs though?
Speaker 3 00:19:12 Starting third?
Speaker 2 00:19:14 Starting third. He's only 8,100 got a topped in here last year. Uh, very good track for him. He won the Xfinity race last year. He was the odds on favorite to win Saturday's Xfinity series race, which is about to get started shortly.
Speaker 3 00:19:27 So he's starting third, he's 8,100 which means five x is what? 40 and a half
Speaker 2 00:19:36 About? Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:19:37 You wanna guess what the finish position points are for finishing third?
Speaker 2 00:19:40 Not good.
Speaker 3 00:19:41 41.
Speaker 2 00:19:42 Oh there you go.
Speaker 3 00:19:43 If he starts third and finishes third, he hits value doesn't even have to get any labs left or fastest lap. So there's the difference between Chastain and Gibs. Why am I more likely to play Gibbs A salary?
Speaker 3 00:19:55 Salary B, easier path to value and c, I straight up trust Ty Gibbs more right now than Charles Chastain. Which is a sentence I didn't think I was gonna say this early in Gibbs' Cup career, but he's been solid. There's been no, I mean last year in one of his first cup starts in this car he started 11th and finished 10th. Mm-hmm <affirmative>. So he can hold top 10 spots And can we honestly say that there's anybody starting behind him that we're guaranteeing is gonna bump 'em back like four or five spots? I don't think so.
Speaker 2 00:20:33 I'm curious where you stand on this pretty much this, I guess we could call it the Bowman line 'cause he's an even $8,000. She starts P 20. There are a lot of intriguing plays basically from this point down. And you could make an argument whether it's, you know, an ownership play, uh, equipment play. Like even Austin Dillon who at P 16 and 7,200, I'm thinking, well I don't really wanna plan but at the same time he can randomly show up and grab a top 10 any week. Uh, he was top 10 last week. He was surprisingly top 10 at New Hampshire. Um, didn't have a great run at Pocono. I'm gonna guess he wrecked. I can't remember off the top of my head. Which is very unfortunate, but really like we've got, we've got,
Speaker 3 00:21:15 Yeah he got, he got taken out and hit the wall pretty, pretty hard.
Speaker 2 00:21:19 But we have enough.
Speaker 3 00:21:21 That was why he the helmet.
Speaker 2 00:21:23 Yeah, but there's enough like position differential plays in this range and you could really spread, spread exposure around in this basically eight K range on down. And strangely enough we get Josh Berry at $6,400 starting P 35. Which
Speaker 3 00:21:38 Trivia question he's $800 more than the guy he is replacing on DK and he's the same price as Noah Gron was on FanDuel and mm-hmm <affirmative> FanDuel. I don't know what you're doing man, because Austin Hill is more expensive than Josh Berry is <laugh> this week, which I don't know, your rule of thumb is just subbing the sub for how much the original dude was. Okay. But Josh Barry's better to no over accent.
Speaker 2 00:22:05 Do you kind of just plug Barry into your cash lineup, like set it and forget it? Yeah, because it's so cheap and all.
Speaker 3 00:22:10 He's starting 35th so
Speaker 2 00:22:12 Yeah you can, you can pretty much finish top 25 and you're kind of just hoping for that.
Speaker 3 00:22:15 Yeah. Um, Bowman's intriguing this week. I don't know what to make of Elmar to be perfectly honest. I mean it's a forward but it's Elmar. Um, who you thought I was ref referencing in the disco display, <laugh> Denny Hamlin could smell uh, ammonia and you read it as Elmar and then got a off the bacon in your nose. Uh, which is arguably better than smelling ammonia. Um, Alman dinger starting 24th is interesting to me. He ran better than that in practice and I think he's out to prove a point that he didn't screw up last weekend by skipping Richmond's practice and qualifying. He
Speaker 2 00:22:54 Won there in the, in the Xfinity series two years ago too.
Speaker 3 00:22:57 Yeah. Um, he's interesting. I'm gonna go back to a guy that I really like at places he's comfortable. And that's Eric Jones.
Speaker 2 00:23:04 Yeah, we were talking about him at the top of the podcast. Um,
Speaker 3 00:23:08 Two things.
Speaker 2 00:23:09 Go ahead.
Speaker 3 00:23:09 Put up three fingers for two things. I'll ma I'll, I'll make it three things. <laugh> one home track how close to a home track. The guy can sleep at his parents' house this weekend and still make it to track on time for practice and and racing. Okay. Second, he, he got married this week midweek. Oh
Speaker 3 00:23:28 He, that's why he was not at the Richmond Tire test and Noah Gregson had to fill in for him because he was supposed to be there in New Hampshire until it got moved. When the New Hampshire race got moved he couldn't do the Richmond one 'cause he couldn't be at Richmond. And then planning and getting ready for his wedding, which was in like Wednesday in Michigan. Uh, so he got married, got a ring put on it and in the last six similar races, Jones has three top 10 finishes including back to back P eight and P nines at the similar ch like he ran P nine at Pocono. Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:24:03 That's right around where he finished. Got four facet laps too.
Speaker 3 00:24:06 So I have no problem with Jones this week. Starting 25th is nice. Um,
Speaker 2 00:24:12 I feel like you might also like Stenhouse for the same reasons.
Speaker 3 00:24:15 I do. I think, I mean not for the marriage narrative. He's been married <laugh>. Good
Speaker 2 00:24:19 Point. Um,
Speaker 3 00:24:21 No home track 'cause he is from another M state in Mississippi. Um, but he ran better than that than that qualifying spot. Like in practice he ran inside the top 18 or so. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, Eric Jones's speed in practice, not like right there with Stenhouse. So both of 'em I think can easily pull off top twenties and at that price and we're splitting, I mean we're splitting hairs between guys here. I'm fine with Barry except in GP PS that'd probably fade Barry 'cause I think he's gonna be pretty highly owned.
Speaker 2 00:24:58 Yeah, I think with Barry it's pretty much you're hoping he does this week. What Alman Dinger did last week. 'cause Alman Dinger started 36th last week and we were talking about this in the Discord, but it's like, you know, if he finished 20th he's pretty much returning I think it was six x value. Yeah. And if he does that then he would've probably been optimal easily. Um, but ultimately like if you faded Almond Dinger, he finished 27th and he only got 25 points. Good. Not great. Um, but you're kind of hoping, like for Barry you're hoping it's the same. He's basically this week's a j Almond dinger.
Speaker 3 00:25:35 Yeah. Apologies for the interruption. My kids apparently have no idea that I'm on a podcast even though I've been
Speaker 2 00:25:41 <laugh>. It's, it's alright. Afternoon.
Speaker 3 00:25:43 Um, yeah, I think you're exactly right. I think you're playing Barry in cash hoping he hits at least five x and you're going lighter on him in the field in gps on the off chance he doesn't hit six x
Speaker 2 00:25:59 Uh, every driver at 5,500 and down, uh, they're starting P 30 or worse. Is there anybody in this range that you might entertain dumpster diving for?
Speaker 3 00:26:12 Uh, maybe leg. I don't know. I'm always drawn to LA Joy, but like,
Speaker 2 00:26:17 I mean he, he's got some good vibes coming his way too 'cause he just signed that contract extension. But he comes in with four straight finishes outside the top 25.
Speaker 3 00:26:25 Yeah, I mean he spun too. Um, I practice for qualifying. I can't remember which Cole Custer's not that intriguing 'cause it's cold Custer. Um, if Ty Dillon's car was better, he'd be intriguing, but it's not better. So, you know, um,
Speaker 2 00:26:40 It's the same equipment as Lejo isn't it?
Speaker 3 00:26:42 Yeah. But somehow it always finishes worse than Lejo. So <laugh>, um, I mean none of these guys are really, I don't know, I don't know that we have to necessarily play any of 'em this week.
Speaker 2 00:26:58 I think Gilland is gonna be a guy that could draw a lot of attention just because, um, he's averaged like 27 and a half fantasy points per race this year. But the forum has been lacking a little bit. I don't know. He was, he was great at Pocono a couple weeks ago getting it top team.
Speaker 3 00:27:18 Yeah, he was great at Pocono, but like he's finished 27th or worse in four of the six comparable tracks. Mm-hmm
Speaker 4 00:27:26 <affirmative>
Speaker 3 00:27:28 Including 31st, 33rd, 35th and the 33rd. And 35th came directly before Pocono. So I, I don't know. I don't know that we necessarily need to dive that deep. We're running up against the clock here. But like if you go with Byron at 10 k in the hopes that he can lead some laps starting seventh, right. And then we look at, I know you liked, you liked Reddick in the starting 15. So we go there and if you go Gibbs at 8,100 and then we go with Eric Jones 'cause I really like him. You're talking about you got 7,700 bucks for the last two spots. So, you know, talk about the Bowman line Bowman's at 8,000, right? So you could go with like, I don't know Bubba 8 8800 and you've still got $6,600 left. Which gets you, I mean no I mean it gets you Barry, right? 34, they're starting 35th or 6,400.
Speaker 2 00:28:30 Well you could also do that start of Byron Reddick Jones swap out Gibbs for Stenhouse who offers much more PD then go Lejo and you could fit in any other potential dominator to go with Byron that you wanted. 'cause you would've 11 thousand's.
Speaker 3 00:28:45 True. Got Gibbs. I mean Gibbs is starting third so there's a chance he leads lamps, but like Yeah. Take out Barry Bob. But yeah, you could fit, I don't know if we want M T J. You're still talking, you got six grand left. You could get I don't know what to, what to do with Austin Cindrich who had the electrical issue of practice. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Um, but yeah, there, there's a few different, so I don't know that you need to go below like six grand this week.
Speaker 2 00:29:20 Uh, any final thoughts as we, uh, wrap up this preview of Michigan?
Speaker 3 00:29:24 Um, not necessarily. I mean I got, you know, the, um, my favorite bet this week is Eric Jones, top 10 by the way. Plus 3,300 or plus, sorry, plus three 30. Um, that's my favorite. That's my favorite prop bet of the week.
Speaker 2 00:29:42 All right. Um, I think it's also worth mentioning that no Michigan born driver has ever won at Michigan.
Speaker 3 00:29:47 Correct. So that means Kozlowski and Jones are fighting to be the first one. Yeah. To win it.
Speaker 2 00:29:53 Well, Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this week at Michigan and best of luck to the A Nation. Best
Speaker 3 00:29:58 Of luck, cafe Nation.
