Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine.
Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on at the nation? Come back, uh, deeply, sorry for the very late publishing of the NASCAR DFS podcast for this week's race in at the Circuit of Americas in Austin, Texas. It's been a very busy day. Uh, we are recording this Saturday night. Saturday night. Uh, I had two races I had to cover today. If you were in the discord, the truck race was a disaster. The Xfinity race was a little redeeming, uh, made back my losses at least. Uh, Matt had a basically a 14 hour fantasy baseball draft. Uh, but his team was awesome. We expect, go ahead.
Speaker 3 00:00:57 I said that I was not expecting. I, I, it's a live draft in Atlantic City. Um, I had sent, uh, my, I had sent somebody in my place to draft my team for me. Um, and at five 30 this morning, central time I found out that one of the owners was sick and couldn't make it. And if he couldn't draft, then a whole bunch of just chaotic things happened during the draft that nobody in the league wants. Um, so basically I drafted a, an auction baseball draft, uh, remotely over Facebook Messenger for 14 hours. Um, instead <laugh>, and then tried to do some NASCAR stuff in between. But that was impossible cuz it's an auction draft. So I very much apologize for the delay here. We will still have all of our content out. I know it's gonna be a scramble a little bit on Sunday to check out the playbook, the podcast, the projections workplace. Um, and I'm sorry about that. There was, you know, circumstances a little bit out of my control cuz if I didn't draft this year, it had repercussions for like, following years in the draft. It's a very complicated league. Don't have time to get into it. So instead, let's talk about a very complicated NASCAR track. You guys have had some trouble navigating this weekend.
Speaker 2 00:02:19 Yeah, it's been actually a real pain in the ass. It, it just seems like any, without my initial reaction after the truck race where I lost all my entry fees was that I really miss the stage breaks. Uh, after the Xfinity race, my feelings change, but like without the stage breaks, if you have a driver that, that has something go wrong, it's like, you know, I'm not, I know they're not gonna lose a lap, but I know if they need to fix this, it's gonna take them so long to get back to pit road and then they need to dedicate the time to fix the issue and diagnose it. So there is a part of me that misses the stage break. Um, but at the same time, like thi this is what I wanted last year with road courses and, and especially from a TFS perspective, but it just seemed like in the truck race everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Speaker 2 00:03:07 Like there was massive chalk from Matt Crafton who started 34th and, and was under eight K. He basically finished 33rd cuz he got into some crap with Haley Deagan who drove like a complete jerk. And I'm not saying this cuz she's a lady, but she, she drove like an absolute dingus today. Uh, and then, uh, I think she also had issues with Stewart Friesen. I think she turned Lawless Allen at some point. Like there were three drivers. She did. She will not be getting Christmas cards from this year. Uh, the truck race was, was, was so frustrating, um, especially for me who was telling a couple my brother-in-law and, and some other friends to like parlay Kyle Bushen, AJ Almond Dinger winning their races cuz he was paying like 13 to one on DraftKings. Kyle Bushman is second in his race. Almond Dinger won the Xfinity Race.
Speaker 2 00:03:57 Um, it's been frustrating, especially, you know, basically on restarts when they go up the hill into turn one, it's a very sharp, almost 270 degree turn, uh, at this road course. And, and it's basically every car trying to go in three four wide into this very sharp turn. It's causing a lot of crap. It's so annoying. Um, and because of like today's frustrations, I'm very hesitant to play cash games tomorrow. And there's, and honestly I don't like playing cash games when there's a ton of chalk. And for tomorrow's cup race, there is a lot of chalk that can be played. Um, and you can leave money on the table. And so I'm, I'm only doing tournaments tomorrow. I've, I've made the decision I will play single entry three entry max 20 entry max. I'm not doing any cash after, uh, getting by the winning by the skin of my teeth for the Xfinity Race and still getting a pro on Saturday. That's my ran. Yeah,
Speaker 3 00:04:53 I, I agree with you. Um, the slate just does not set up very well for cash. Um, nor does the past track record here set up that well for it either. I mean, the first year they raced here was a torrential downpour of Martin Trash Jr. Nearly killed uh what
Speaker 2 00:05:11 Cole
Speaker 3 00:05:11 Custer? Yeah, Cole Custer. Um, not on purpose obviously, but just <laugh> the dude slowing down and then, yeah. Uh, and then last year it was more chaos. I mean there was a lot of beating and banging, but the last part of the last lap, uh, which really pissed off AJ Alman dinger for good reason. Um, they basically decided to use each other's cars as pinball and uh, bounce all over the place. So there's been a whole lot of chaos. Um, cars broke last year, if I'm not mistaken. Like Kevin <laugh>, Kevin Harvick's car. I think <laugh> had a park break in the middle of the race, which we don't usually see. Um, so yeah, I'm, I'm with you. This track does not, this is not a road course that typically sets up well for cash tournaments and then add on top of it everybody that had trouble at practice and qualifying um, this week, including a very cheap option starting dead last.
Speaker 3 00:06:15 Um, it, it just is not gonna make it very fun for cash games cuz there's a pretty clear one or two cash lineups. Yeah. And that's gonna make the, uh, the money line a little tougher to get. So I'm with you. I'm playing single entry or three entry max tournaments, maybe a little higher, um, if I get enough sleep to compile that many lineups cuz I <laugh> I'm on like five total hours of sleep over the last two days. Um, so yeah, so that's kind of where, you know, you and I are viewing the, the slate the same way plus, now let me ask you this. What are, what are your expectations of some of the open wheel guys that have come over for this race? We have Jensen Button in one of the cars. Um, former F1 world champ who by the way, his first time in the car in practice that the spotters are very soothing.
Speaker 2 00:07:12 <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:07:13 <laugh>. I don't know what to make that.
Speaker 2 00:07:15 That was such an F1 response.
Speaker 3 00:07:17 Yeah. Cause they don't spotters in f1 you gotta figure it out yourself and where everybody is. But um, then you got the Iceman Jimmy Reckoning is, uh, is back again. You've got Jordan Taylor in the nine car, which looks super fast. Um, so we've got some interesting, you know, Jimmy Johnson's back in the 84. I don't know what we wanna do about that, but we've got some interesting open wheel guys and I'm not a hundred percent sure how, and Connor Daley, um, too, but I'm not sure how I'm approaching those guys.
Speaker 2 00:07:52 I think it's very hard to play, uh, Jordan Taylor because he qualified fourth, the car has speed. The Chevys in general look really good, but he's starting fourth.
Speaker 3 00:08:05 Yeah, he's 7,500, which means he's going to be everybody's favorite mid-tier play
Speaker 2 00:08:11 In tournaments. Yes. I don't think anybody's gonna play that guy in cash.
Speaker 3 00:08:14 No.
Speaker 2 00:08:15 Um, but in tournaments I could see it because really even if, even if he loses a few spots, if he can just hang on to a top eight, he, there's still room for him to be in the optimal lineup. But it's just, I don't think he has a path to really finishing in the top five legitimately. Um,
Speaker 3 00:08:32 You know, there's some pretty good road racers starting behind him that I, that I just think will move up through him.
Speaker 2 00:08:40 Yeah, I mean, um, it's AJ Almond Dinger looked to have figured out like it Almond Dinger was crap in practice on Friday. Um, but they looked to have figured out any woes or issues that they had. You know, he qual he managed to make, make the final round of qualifying. Uh, he's starting seventh overall it's like there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8 Chevys in the top 10, um, 10 in the top 13 like this looks like it's shaping up to be a race primarily dominated by Chevys except for one guy named Tyler Reddick who has had an absolute rocket ship of a car both in practice and qualifying. He's on the front row As far as Jordan Taylor goes, I can't see myself really giving too much attention to him in dfs. Um, uh, and for Kimmy Reichen, uh, what's he in, he's he in the 91, the project 91 car or whatever
Speaker 3 00:09:34 It is. He's in the, he's in the track house 91. Yeah. Which gives a little bit of credence to it, right? Like if we, like what I mean, track house won what, two road races last year?
Speaker 2 00:09:48 Yeah. They won this race with Ross Chastain.
Speaker 3 00:09:52 Right. And Suarez won Sonoma.
Speaker 2 00:09:56 Sonoma. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:09:58 So we can put together some road and it's not like Reon didn't race in the Cup series last year, now it was Watkins Glen, which is an entirely different and way less technical road course, but Coda is an F1 purpose-built track that the Cup series and the trucks and the Xfinity are just renting out for the weekend. Right. So I, I don't know what to do about reckoning and I think starting 22nd he's intriguing cuz there is some room there. I'm not sure I want anything to do with Jensen button this weekend.
Speaker 2 00:10:34 I don't either. I know it's a rick wear car for all intents and purposes I'm operating as if it's a steward house racing car and even then I'm still just not very interested in it. Um, I have concerns about the Fords.
Speaker 3 00:10:49 Yeah. Um,
Speaker 2 00:10:50 <laugh>, I mean you look at the qualifying results and I understand that there are two guys, Ryan Blaney and Erica Marola that had issues on the qualifying last, but still I just don't think in this aerial package it's, it's something that I think it just makes more tire wear for the Fords and, and I don't think this is necessarily a race that I wanna be super heavy on. Now. I still have faith that, that those two guys, Brian Blaney and Eric Elmar, especially Elmar, who only really needs the top 25 to pay off the price tag. Blaney probably needs a top 17 finish. I'd wanna say,
Speaker 3 00:11:23 Well let's see, Blaney is dk, he's 9,100. So we're looking for what, five x at a road course or are we looking for four x at a road course? Well
Speaker 2 00:11:37 This is a, this was another conversation that we were gonna have because it's like when we discussed road courses, there are so few dominator points that are available and even for a guy like Kyle Bush in the truck race who was $13,000 and AJ Hellman Dinger who was 10,600 in the Xfinity race, it's like, you know, you can still be heavy on these guys because they're very talented, they're in the best equipment. Um, but you have to adjust the expectations because typically if you're gonna start a poll sitter and you expect them to dominate the race, you're kind of hoping for six to seven x value. But Kyle Bush in, in the truck race, his his ceiling was probably like 67 points just because there were only 42 laps, which means there were only like 25, 26 dominator points. And so from that perspective it's like his ceiling might be six x, you're not, you're, it's impossible for him to get seven or eight x Right. Um, for these value guys, like I think, I think for with Elmar, like even if he was to get 29 points, I'd still be disappointed. I'd probably want, when I build like a, an optimal line for cash or for tournaments at a road course, I want the winner and I want five other drivers that can get at least 40 points minimum. Yeah,
Speaker 3 00:12:54 That's fair.
Speaker 2 00:12:55 Yeah,
Speaker 3 00:12:56 That's fair. So in that regard, I am way more interested in Amarillo than Blaney simply because of the price tag. Like Blaney's going off at 9,100, Almar is 5,800. So they're starting basically the same spot in the grid. I'm gonna take the guy who's $3,300 less. Um, but so is everybody else. So just be cautious about that because Almar is going to be very popular for the people that are just going for PD plays and he's cheap and you can make the argument that you may trust Eric Amar the most of anybody's six grand or last on dk.
Speaker 2 00:13:41 Yeah, no, for sure.
Speaker 3 00:13:42 Like I don't know if I tr like Connor Daley's another open wheel guy, but that car broke like the first lap he was in it <laugh>, he had a terrible time at the Daytona of 500 with two things happening that like never happened. Right? Like some part broke that he's never seen break before and then the mirror fall off or something.
Speaker 2 00:14:06 Who's
Speaker 3 00:14:07 Connor Daley at the Daytona 500? Like in practice? <laugh>? Yeah, it was well and then in the race it was like a mirror fell off or
Speaker 2 00:14:13 Something. I think that was, that sounds familiar. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:14:18 So I'm not trusting that car at all. Uh, Butkis a no, Ty's probably a no Cody where? No, sorry, not a super Speedway. So we're out on him. Lejo, I don't trust to make right turns. So like now you're down to Har <laugh>, Harrison, Burton house, Gillin, Grason and Priest. I dunno. Justin Haley's I don't trust like the car can't make him a better road course racer.
Speaker 2 00:14:50 The problem with like, I mean, I mean Elmar is such, if you're gonna play cash games tomorrow, Elmar is by far the easiest cash game play. He's 5,800. He cannot give you negative points. Right. Um,
Speaker 3 00:15:02 But it really can't go backwards. So
Speaker 2 00:15:04 I mean, what happens if he finishes 30th because that's nine points of position differential and that would be 21 points. So a driver at 5,800 in SR equipment, <laugh> getting you 21 points and that's probably his floor, assuming he runs a clean race. So I can see like, like there, there's such a safe floor with Elmer, like it makes sense that's
Speaker 3 00:15:27 Almost four x right there. Yeah. By the way.
Speaker 2 00:15:30 Uh, excuse me. Probably with the top 25. And so it's, it's so dumb and it's frustrating because I watched the truck and Xfinity race today where it just seemed like the chalk was just eager to bust and, and blow lineups across the, the slate. Um, 90% own Matt Craft and starting P 34 still pisses me off and he couldn't finish the race.
Speaker 3 00:15:55 I mean, ER's gonna be in that category.
Speaker 2 00:15:57 Yes. Almar should be 100% owned in cash games
Speaker 3 00:16:02 And he's probably about 60% owned in tournaments
Speaker 2 00:16:06 Probably. Yeah. Um, it's so frustrating. And and that's exactly, I don't know, I'm so turned off by this slate tomorrow.
Speaker 3 00:16:15 Yeah. The more I look at it, it's getting more depressing
Speaker 2 00:16:20 <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:16:21 Um, like I'm just clicking through and clearly by the way, don't ever, don't ask me about Papa Wallace tomorrow. He can't make right turns. So that's a, that's a no. Um, where's
Speaker 2 00:16:33 He starting?
Speaker 3 00:16:34 I don't even care.
Speaker 2 00:16:35 The 11. Holy crap.
Speaker 3 00:16:36 I don't even,
Speaker 2 00:16:37 It'd be 6,900.
Speaker 3 00:16:39 It's not nice this week though.
Speaker 2 00:16:41 <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:16:42 Like, okay this is, this is utterly, this is about to get utterly ridiculous Dan. This lineup is about to get utterly ridiculous. Okay, who would you choose out of Hailey Priest, Gregson Gilland Burton Stenhouse.
Speaker 2 00:17:04 Um, is Todd Gilland in the front row car?
Speaker 3 00:17:12 Um, that's a good question actually.
Speaker 2 00:17:15 Yes he is. He's in the 38.
Speaker 3 00:17:17 Yes.
Speaker 2 00:17:19 Probably Todd.
Speaker 3 00:17:21 Probably Todd. Cuz that's a pretty decent, that's a pretty decent car, right? You wanna know who I just fit in this lineup with Todd Gilland with $900 left
Speaker 2 00:17:30 <laugh> laid
Speaker 3 00:17:30 On me. Gonna make you throw up.
Speaker 2 00:17:32 Go for it.
Speaker 3 00:17:34 So I started with Almar cuz he's like you have to right Chris Cher's pretty dang good. Yeah, he broke was racing. He's starting 32nd at 7,700 bucks. So thank you. Uh, Ty Gillin is starting 36 to 5,400. Okay, here's the other three dudes. Kyle Bush, chestain and Reddick.
Speaker 2 00:17:57 I'm not ignoring you, I'm actually just plugging in this lineup to look at it. So you had Bush Chestain, Reddick
Speaker 3 00:18:04 Busher,
Speaker 2 00:18:04 We had Todd father, we had Bush dog
Speaker 3 00:18:08 And Almar
Speaker 2 00:18:11 El Marola and this will be one of my chrome
Speaker 3 00:18:15 Horn. You have $900 left
Speaker 2 00:18:17 <laugh>. Oh my God.
Speaker 3 00:18:20 So you have three dudes who are gonna, I mean Redick should dominate pretty well. Chastain should move up. Kyle Bus ignore last year's numbers People, okay, that's a product of Toyota Beans Road courses last year. It's not a product of Kyle Bus not being able to drive well at a road course. Okay. He's gonna move up from ninth Chastain's gonna move up from 12. Reddick is starting for b2 and then you get PD plays with good road course equipment in Erola, Buscher and Todd Gilland. That's
Speaker 2 00:18:53 <laugh>. Yeah. That's kind of insane.
Speaker 3 00:18:54 This is a faulty slate. <laugh>.
Speaker 2 00:18:56 <laugh>. Yeah. This slate's broken.
Speaker 3 00:19:00 This is where I wish we go back to when DK didn't release the the slates until qualifying was set by the formula. <laugh>.
Speaker 2 00:19:10 Man this is not fun. <laugh> No. Like there, there's,
Speaker 3 00:19:14 Here's the thing.
Speaker 2 00:19:15 We can look at draft gangs and just think like yeah this is a fun slate to build lineups, but then it's like how do I get different here? Like what do I have to do?
Speaker 3 00:19:22 Right? And let's say we don't want a third guy starting in the thirties so we take out, I don't know, maybe Buscher, right? Well that gives me Bowman starting sixth. Denny's starting 21st. Briscoe at 19 Truex exit 25th. Like there's all sorts of where you could go down from there. If you trust Eric Jones to show up like he did in qualifying and hold onto a P eight, then he's there. Like, this is just a ridiculous,
Speaker 2 00:19:54 I'm intentionally trying to like just make pivots off the lineup that you just mentioned and
Speaker 3 00:19:58 Get loose. I'm $100 short of getting Logano.
Speaker 2 00:20:02 I currently have Blaney starting 38th Chastain Reddick Jones starting 12th second and eighth respectively. And then Buscher and Almar who are also starting outside the top 30. And I don't feel good about that because I, I've, I don't feel great about Eric Jones holding his position. But I think tomorrow when you're building tournament lineups, you have to feel really good about five of your drivers and then maybe plug in one driver that you don't feel good about because that one driver is the one that will set you apart in a tournament. Cuz Eric Jones is gonna have almost no ownership.
Speaker 3 00:20:38 Right.
Speaker 2 00:20:38 But again, it's a road course <laugh>, I hate playing Eric Jones at a road course.
Speaker 3 00:20:43 And by the way, if you don't think passing is gonna happen, you can get um, you can get Byron starting on the poll. We're right starting second Cindrich, starting third Kyle Busch starting ninth Gill and Elmar in a lineup with $400 left.
Speaker 2 00:21:01 It's looking like you need to leave money on the table.
Speaker 3 00:21:04 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:21:05 Which I don't feel great about at a rub course
Speaker 3 00:21:08 N not usually the best strategy, but with the way this slate is setting up, we're gonna have to do it because Yeah. Now I also am not telling you to play all three dudes starting P one, P two and P three in the same lineup cuz that is a death sentence. If they go backwards, <laugh>,
Speaker 2 00:21:25 I'm definitely not playing Cindrich starting P three. I'm not crazy about Fords. But then when the Fords go out and qualify poorly, all we have is to play Fords for the pd.
Speaker 3 00:21:37 Right? I mean Cindrich I would trust the most simply because of his background of being raised on an open, like being, learning to drive in an open wheel
Speaker 2 00:21:48 Race car. He might be the one I trust the least because he is starting third.
Speaker 3 00:21:53 Well
Speaker 2 00:21:53 I think that's just where we disagree because there are plenty of Fords lined up right behind him that are eager to pass him.
Speaker 3 00:22:00 I mean that's that's fair. But he has a skill to hold him off. So like, I don't know, it's it's a different view of the same.
Speaker 2 00:22:10 I hate the Slate <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:22:12 I'm the same guy but I could get, so like I have Kyle Bush, Cindrich, Reddick, Amar and Guillo in there and I have $9,900 left, which gets me anywhere from Almond Dinger down
Speaker 2 00:22:23 Reddick.
Speaker 3 00:22:24 It's ridiculous. Like there are some, see like we say we hate the slate but then again there are a bunch of ways you can build for tournaments.
Speaker 2 00:22:38 No there are, I mean you can go out and just try to get the winner and hope that you have one guy that dominates LA and it looks like it could be Reddick or Byron who showed up in, in qualifying. Um, and then from there you're basically just trying to nail guys that offer PD and can finish well. Um, or you could just go the, the tried and true method of just playing PD guys. The problem I have with that is that it's mostly Fords and I'm not crazy about the Fords this week.
Speaker 3 00:23:06 Yeah. Now what are you, what are your thoughts on Larson being the most expensive guy? Starting 13th, he ran fourth in the five lap average, which is all we're going off of cuz that's all he really needed a road course. And also nobody really did attend lap average.
Speaker 2 00:23:21 So, so he kind of reminds me of what William Byron was in the Xfinity Race. You know, Byron started, I think ninth in the Xfinity race. He was like 10,200 or something in that range. Um, and was the second fastest car. And so I'd be fine playing Larson even if he just finished his second or third. Um, I mean coming into this race this weekend, he was the, the favorite, rightfully so. He is a good road course driver. Um, but you know, it is just Tyler Reddick loaded off the truck with an absolute rocket ship. And so even if I played Larson, I would expect him to at least contend for a top three finish and I'd be okay with that despite the fact he's not returning like the traditional five x value I don't think. Um, but I would still like to play because I know I'm, I know that I feel good about getting at least 45 points from him.
Speaker 3 00:24:17 Well kind of on, I'm kind of in line with you. What, what are we doing with the Toyotas this week though? Like are we straight up disregarding what happened to 'em last year?
Speaker 2 00:24:26 Well
Speaker 3 00:24:27 Or cuz they didn't qualify all that well,
Speaker 2 00:24:31 I'm very high. Everyone is high on Reddick. Uh, the sports book have shifted. Sports books have shifted their odds heavily. Uh, so people aren't betting on Reddick. Um, it's hard to ignore the speed. I think that after we get some tire wear and laugh all off, he does kind of run laps that are in line with the Chevys. But by that point, if he's still running up front, he's gonna have enough of a lead or enough of a gap between him and everyone else where he's kind of just running with clean air and he'll just be able to still separate himself. Uh, Denny Hamlin, I wanna play starting 21st. I know he really wasn't. I don't, I'm not crazy about Truex really. The Okay, if I'm going to give you an honest answer, I'm mostly interested in Reddick, Hamlin and Bell.
Speaker 3 00:25:18 Yeah, I mean it's hard not to view them as the top ones given the fact that they are,
Speaker 2 00:25:24 I'll say that I'm interested in Gibbs from this perspective that we've seen a lot of this has been a, a high variance road course so far between the truck and Xfinity Race and if we get similar variance, um, I mean I don't think that just extra track time with Gibbs running the Xfinity Race on Saturday. That's not a bad thing. And he won, I believe he won the coder race or he won, he, he's won Road Courts in Xfinity. I can't remember if he won last year's race. Might have been Almond Dinger. Um, but I still won't write him off necessarily because I think he's starting P 17. That's not gonna attract a lot of ownership because people can just easily pay down to Austin Dillon who had good numbers on road courses last year. They could go to Ryan Priest, Eric Elmar, Todd Gill Oland. You know, there are just so much, there are, there are plays starting farther back that are just much more appealing than Ty Gibbs. But I, there's a part of me that thinks Ty Gibbs has a top 12 in him.
Speaker 3 00:26:27 That's fair. Fair. That's very intriguing. I'm building another lineup here that's <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:26:35 Gonna be, what do you got?
Speaker 3 00:26:38 Um, well I have $700 left and I just put in a couple of guys we just talked about. Okay. So we're gonna start with the most expensive dudes in the signup. We've got Larson mm-hmm <affirmative>, we've got Kyle Bush and we've got Tyler Reddick and then we also have Ty Gipps, Austin, Dylan and Amar.
Speaker 5 00:27:03 Mm-hmm <affirmative>.
Speaker 2 00:27:06 Yeah I could get behind that in a tournament
Speaker 3 00:27:08 And there's 700 bucks left. You get a little bit of variance plays cuz not everybody's starting super far back. You get two dudes who are probably gonna be a little lower owned in Tag Gibbs and Austin Dillon.
Speaker 2 00:27:18 I'm surprised you haven't mentioned Michael McDowell yet. And I understand I'm worried about that card because it's a Ford. But at the same time, like you're the one who kind of like put me on McDowell at road courses a year ago. Now he doesn't have Blake Harris, but neither does Alex Bowman this week.
Speaker 3 00:27:32 Yeah, I mean that's fair
Speaker 2 00:27:34 <laugh> but still, you know Michael McDowell, it's not like he's been completely lost without Harris. He still had, you know, some decent finishes this year. He's a pretty good road course race too. But I'd also be tempted if I'm pushing the Chevy narrative just to go to Kimmy Reichman.
Speaker 3 00:27:51 Yeah, my only concern with McDowell is if you look at the last, um, let's see, the last five road courses, which was most of last year, right? His average starting spot was 14.6. His average finish was 21st. Did have a couple of top twenties, but he's starting 20th. So if you presume that he's gonna finish somewhere let's say 18th or 17th, there's just not a whole lot of wiggle room there. I mean 7,100 s a fair price. Um, but again, if we're looking for, we said we want five guys, we want the winner and then five guys to put up 40 points, right? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, if he's starting 20th, that would get him, let's see, starting 20th is 23 points for finished position. Okay. He's gotta move up. I mean even if he gets a, let's say finishes, let's say 14th, that's still only like 35 points. So it's just in a weird spot where you basically need him to get a top 10 to get you the 40 points we're looking for.
Speaker 5 00:29:09 Hmm.
Speaker 3 00:29:13 That's my only hesitation. Yes. He usually a very good road racer. I do think beat the Fords in this package haven't been great and then it's not even about value for him. It's more about if we're looking for, if we can settle for 35 points. Okay then if he gets like a top 15 with a couple of fastest laps, which is possible, then we get it. But it's just a, it's just a weird spot for him.
Speaker 2 00:29:46 It sucks
Speaker 3 00:29:48 <laugh>. It does. I mean I'm not opposed to, I'm not opposed to sprinkling him in to to lineups cuz I, I think people are gonna look at him about the same way I just did. Right. And if he shows up then he gets you 40 points and you got a 40 point guy who's probably gonna be well under 10% plate.
Speaker 2 00:30:10 I just threw together Chas team, Byron, Larson, Busher, Elma, Rola Dylan. So I'm getting plenty of win equity.
Speaker 3 00:30:23 Yeah. A
Speaker 2 00:30:24 Couple Fords that I just need to just not suck and just maybe grab a top 20.
Speaker 3 00:30:30 You said Larson, Byron
Speaker 2 00:30:32 Chastain Buscher, Dylan Elmar. Oh I hate that. I'm gonna be 100% Amarillo tomorrow.
Speaker 3 00:30:42 I mean it's almost impossible not to be on him, right?
Speaker 2 00:30:48 I mean he, I I don't think he goes and I don't think he's one of those guys that can get me 40 points on draftings, but it's like I could also see this being such an obvious spot and he has some kind of issue early on and he just doesn't finish the race.
Speaker 3 00:31:03 Yeah. But it's almost like the good news is he's so obvious that the is there and so if it screws us then it screws everybody and it's not actually that bad.
Speaker 2 00:31:14 But then you're only min caching in a tournament.
Speaker 3 00:31:18 Yeah, but min caching is still two x, green is green. It's
Speaker 2 00:31:22 Not always true. It's sometimes it's just one and a half eggs.
Speaker 3 00:31:25 Okay, well then pick better tournaments.
Speaker 2 00:31:27 <laugh>, I'm gonna load my chrome horn. That sounded weird. I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 00:31:35 <laugh>, you can tell we're this
Speaker 2 00:31:39 Podcast is just going off the rails normally. Normally what? I feel like we're
Speaker 3 00:31:42 Just a
Speaker 2 00:31:43 Race. We just have so much more. Like we just have so such better structure and now we're just building lineups for this race that we absolutely hate tomorrow. I love this race coming into the week, but qualifying just really give us just a giant pile of dog crap. <laugh>. We are trying to make a pizza out of it.
Speaker 3 00:32:04 Yeah, I mean it's just interesting that we come in hating like the sleep but then we've come up with about seven different lineups that we arguably like and they're all different. I mean there's, there's clearly a, a core that we're building around. Right. And I wouldn't be shocked if the core plays feature a bunch of the dudes we just talked about.
Speaker 2 00:32:22 No, you're right. And I, my thing tomorrow is like I don't want to have a single lineup that I feel good about.
Speaker 3 00:32:30 Yeah. Usually the lineups you love are the ones that don't win you anything in DX
Speaker 2 00:32:34 And especially on a slate like this when it's just like there's just, there are so many obvious plays and there's so much chalk really like to really set yourself apart, make some lineups if, and this, this just goes back to like bankroll management but you know, really have lineups that you don't feel good about. Uh, cuz those are the lineups that are kind of like one in, that are unique and if it hits, you're for sure taking down a tournament. Um, I, I felt bad cause I was just preserving cash game contests all week the last few days and I've just withdrew them all. <laugh>,
Speaker 3 00:33:08 I mean I can't blame you. It's not a, it's definitely not a great um, sleep for cash.
Speaker 2 00:33:17 I also don't think I'm gonna be playing my single. I think I might just do the chrome horn tomorrow and see what happens.
Speaker 3 00:33:24 Can't, can't blame you on that one. Yeah. Um, obviously so Dk Sportsbook has reddick at seven to two, which is plus three 50, which is a pit pretty big favor cuz Byron, who's actually on the poll is plus 600. So is Larson Cindrich is plus 800, which I think is a little interesting. Like I'd rather take Chastain at 10 to one than Cindrich at eight to one.
Speaker 2 00:33:51 Um, oh I'd absolutely bet. Chastain.
Speaker 3 00:33:53 Same with, same with Kyle Bos who's also 10 to one. Um, uh, Suarez is 10 to one, almond Dingers 10 to one. Interesting. Um, I'm not touching Jordan Taylor at 18 to one. Sorry, that's not long enough odds. I know he is in a good car. The nine team usually wins a bunch of stuff but it's, sorry. No, um, see ball 30 to one though.
Speaker 2 00:34:20 That's tempting.
Speaker 3 00:34:21 That's pretty tempting cuz if you look over the last five road races, even though we've said Toyotas have sucked, uh, sea Bell isn't that far off of. Here's a, here's a question for you. For the last five road races, who, who has the best average finish in the field?
Speaker 6 00:34:37 Uh,
Speaker 3 00:34:39 The Chevy driver, but that's all I'm gonna tell you.
Speaker 2 00:34:44 Kyle Bus.
Speaker 3 00:34:46 It's Alex Bowman.
Speaker 2 00:34:51 I guess I shouldn't be too
Speaker 3 00:34:52 Surprised about that. Point eight. And then the second best driver. Yeah. Terrible Toyotas was Christopher Bell. The 9.8 average finish.
Speaker 2 00:35:01 That's not too surprising though. I mean cuz especially I know we talked about how the Toyotas eventually like figured out their crap last year especially and like he was, they, I mean they struggled mightily on road courses but even late in the year, like once they started figuring their stuff out, sea Bell was one of the better drivers.
Speaker 3 00:35:20 Now if you look at driver rating, pretty good. All-encompassing metric. Denny Hamlin over the last five road races has been the best driver in the field.
Speaker 2 00:35:30 I'm go Dennis.
Speaker 3 00:35:32 Yeah. 1 0 1 0.3 out of a one 50 is the perfect driver rating. William Byron's at a hundred 0.9 Logano 96 8 Klowski 96 3. Here's my question. If everybody loves Buscher, cuz Buscher had a great run last year at at road races and they tend to like the R F K equipment and Klowski was talking 'em all up. Do we have any interest in maybe pivoting to Klowski in the exact same equipment?
Speaker 2 00:36:08 Where's he starting?
Speaker 3 00:36:11 He is starting 30th and he's $200 more than his. I'm starting 32nd.
Speaker 2 00:36:19 I'd probably go with Klowski
Speaker 3 00:36:22 Just saying to get a pivot. Cause I think a lot of people are gonna like Busher back there and not a lot of people are gonna pay attention to Klowski. Mm-hmm <affirmative> just a, just a pivot idea there for you folks. Do
Speaker 2 00:36:36 You wanna I think I hate this race the most because it's like we have Richmond coming up next week and that's one track I really hate for dfs.
Speaker 3 00:36:42 <laugh> you have not had good luck at Richmond.
Speaker 2 00:36:45 I actually did very well at Richmond last year and it was, it was an anomaly but I'm not gonna like
Speaker 3 00:36:49 Oh right. The race you filled in for <laugh>. You covered the playbook. Cause my draft was that weekend.
Speaker 2 00:36:54 Yeah. I had like a hundred percent exposure to Ryan Blaney and he dominated the first half of the race. I think he finished like seventh but he was still in the optimal lineup. Yeah. Um, it's, that's such a really tough short track because you can, if you lose a lap there, you're not getting it back.
Speaker 3 00:37:10 No, there's no, there's no crashing at that track now.
Speaker 2 00:37:13 So it's like I'm kind of miserable because like I can't have fun with this road course race <laugh> unless I'm throwing 20 lineups into the chrome horn that I absolutely hate <laugh>. And then next week's one of my least favorite like, and I love short track racing for dfs cuz like there's so many laps led but it, like last year I did go to Richmond but historically I suck at Richmond.
Speaker 3 00:37:34 Yeah. Speaking of laps led, we're not exactly targeting them this week. Like it'd be great to have a guy who dominates like likely Reddick or Byron or maybe Kyle Bush or Chastain, but it's not really necessary to go targeting Lapide at a road course cuz there's just not that many. Um, and it doesn't really add up to that many points. So, um, it's not wholly important to build specifically around Lapide at a road course.
Speaker 2 00:38:07 Here's what I'll say to that though, is like if you like Byron and Reddick, you know, still play them and like if they get the dominator points, that's a bonus. But if you'd like them then essentially you'd like them because they have win equity and so you'd like them because they basically get 45 points with the win and then anything else that they give you is just a bonus. That's why I'm, I still like Byron and Reddick. Um, I'm not playing, I don't think I'm gonna be playing Cindrich all that much. Uh, I'm not gonna be playing. Uh, who's filling in for Chase? Lee
Speaker 3 00:38:42 <laugh>. Jordan Taylor.
Speaker 2 00:38:43 Thank you. I'm not gonna be playing him. I just
Speaker 3 00:38:45 Course experience. It's not like he's a new, there's a reason why they're going with Jordan Taylor over Josh Perry. Yeah. It's mainly that he just started too high.
Speaker 2 00:38:54 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:38:55 Like it's
Speaker 2 00:38:58 A good car. He has speed in it and honestly I was very impressed with how comfortable he was in the car. But you, you're, you're a jerk sir cuz you just went out and had to qualify at the top five. You just had to show off.
Speaker 3 00:39:10 I would play basically every Chevy that's starting behind him except for Noah Grason all the way back to
Speaker 2 00:39:16 Supposed to make lineups with just Chevys and maybe Tyler Reddick.
Speaker 3 00:39:22 Yeah, I mean I would start Suarez over Jordan Taylor. I would play golf over Jordan Taylor Alman Dinger. Clearly he just won the flipping Xfinity race. Um, I would probably start Eric Jones over Jordan Taylor to be honest. Like, you know, you've gotta give him credit for getting eighth cuz it's easier to hold a spot on a road course than anywhere else. Clearly we're playing Kyle Bush over him. Mm-hmm.
Speaker 2 00:39:55 <affirmative>,
Speaker 3 00:39:56 Greg's in a probably not, I don't know. I have a tough time tr like trusting Braxton yet. Clearly the Legacy Motor Club cars are fast except for Jimmy Johnson. I had to drive again. Um, clearly saying
Speaker 2 00:40:19 It is that Denny Hamlin is 8,500.
Speaker 3 00:40:23 That's, that's a little disrespectful.
Speaker 2 00:40:26 See I tried to build just a Chevy lineup and here I am with <laugh> two Fords in a Toyota <laugh>.
Speaker 3 00:40:33 Good job driving, building a Chevy lineup.
Speaker 2 00:40:35 Yeah, it's, it's Byron Larson, Austin Dillon, Eric Ola, still Ryan Blaney and Denny. It's going in the chrome horn.
Speaker 3 00:40:47 <laugh>, <laugh>. I can't say I hate the lineup
Speaker 2 00:40:51 <laugh>.
Speaker 3 00:40:52 It's just not a Chevy lineup.
Speaker 2 00:40:54 Yeah. Um, all right. If I really try the Chevy method
Speaker 3 00:40:58 We were looking at, we were looking at pizza for lunch today and the menu had a white pizza on it, but the toppings were tomato, spinach and broccoli, which none of those things are white. So like <laugh>, it's like you tried but not really, but I still like the pizza. <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:41:15 Stenhouse isn't a Chevy, is he? I don't wanna put, I'm not pull blank
Speaker 3 00:41:19 Shouse in a road corner. Yes, he is a Chevy, but no, I'm not playing it. <laugh>.
Speaker 2 00:41:22 Um, okay, here we go. This is a Chevy lineup. William Byron, Kyle Larson, cross Chastain, Austin Tillen. Justin Haley, Kimmy reckoning in
Speaker 3 00:41:34 Rein's Worth the shot is the filler. I love that. Kimmy rein's more expensive than Austin Dylan
Speaker 2 00:41:42 Though. It's either I go Reichen and Eric Jones or Jimmy Johnson.
Speaker 3 00:41:53 I don't think I'm playing Jimmy in that scenario.
Speaker 2 00:41:55 Really.
Speaker 3 00:42:01 I don't How is he the slow? Like Eric Jones's eighth in a legacy motor club car, Noah Braxton's 10th in a legacy motor club car and JJ J'S what, 31st?
Speaker 2 00:42:15 He's Rusty <laugh>.
Speaker 3 00:42:18 He's been rusty for three years. He couldn't figure out how to drive a road course on an indie car either.
Speaker 2 00:42:22 Fair.
Speaker 3 00:42:23 Yeah. I mean that's different, but like, I'm not even sure the practice speed was really all that great for JJ either like he qualified basically where he ran. Yeah. JJ j's single lap speed in practice was 36, like five lap. If we're looking at five lap averages,
Speaker 2 00:42:45 I mean I guess I just go reichen them.
Speaker 3 00:42:47 If we're looking at five lap averages,
Speaker 2 00:42:50 Hey, here we go. I'm building lineups. I hate
Speaker 3 00:42:53 JJ wasn't even, didn't even do it and is technically the slowest
Speaker 2 00:42:59 I'm building 20 lineups I hate, which just, I hope that one can make me like a couple hundred bucks.
Speaker 3 00:43:06 I mean that's not a terrible idea <laugh>, by the way, in terms of five lap average. And I don't really know like why it's seven seconds off, but Austin is not great and
Speaker 2 00:43:17 Tu Low was in the, uh, NASCAR Discord earlier today asking what contest he should play in it. Basically just told him just do low dollar gpp, it's not worth it.
Speaker 3 00:43:25 I mean, you're not wrong.
Speaker 2 00:43:26 Cash is not worth it this week.
Speaker 3 00:43:30 Uh, that's what I would say too. All right, well we've rambled on about a slate. We clearly are struggling to like all that. I mean, there's a lot of ways you can build, I don't wanna say it's a terrible slate and there's only like two lineups. Clearly there's not, we just shared nine of 'em with you. Um,
Speaker 2 00:43:47 And by now everyone knows my feelings. I hate the Fords.
Speaker 3 00:43:50 Yeah, so the general strategy is we're looking for the winner and we're looking for Chevys, uh, guys who can finish pretty highly, which is probably gonna be Chevy, but I would bank on some lineups with no Chevys in case everything goes wrong with Chevy. Um, which is not like out of the realm of possibility <laugh>. Um, but yeah, we'll have, you know, check out the rest of the playbook. Uh, Dan's gonna have a few drivers in there. I'm gonna have a few drivers, uh, in there. Projections will be out. We'll have core plays out lineup blocks are what, 3 44 Eastern on dk?
Speaker 2 00:44:24 I think that's right.
Speaker 3 00:44:26 So it's a reasonably late lock time, uh, for, for folks out there. So with then, um, I'm gonna say good luck nation.
Speaker 2 00:44:40 Yeah. Uh, I was really looking forward to this weekend.
Speaker 3 00:44:45 It is like my favorite road course on the schedule.
Speaker 2 00:44:51 Um, <laugh>, I don't wanna tell you my favorite road course because there's arguably more variance at that road course than this road course
Speaker 3 00:45:02 In the moment. <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:45:05 Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:45:06 When the whole curb fell off like <laugh>.
Speaker 2 00:45:10 Well,
Speaker 3 00:45:11 The whole curb took out half the field two years ago. <laugh>,
Speaker 2 00:45:15 I know <laugh>, but I also hit Bubba Wallace's top Toyota at a hundred to one last year. So <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:45:21 <laugh>, it's, it's
Speaker 2 00:45:22 Kinda an endearing track.
Speaker 3 00:45:25 So it bribed you is what you sent <laugh>?
Speaker 2 00:45:28 Yeah, well yeah, it accepted the bread.
Speaker 3 00:45:31 It paid off it, it paid you off for your <laugh> for your liking it.
Speaker 2 00:45:35 Yeah. But anyway, uh, we, we will be in the Discord. I know this, this is not one of our better podcasts, so we apologize, but we'll be in the NASCAR DFS discord all day Sunday, helping you build lineups. Hopefully you play light alongside with us. Uh, but Matt, thank you so much for your time. Glad your fantasy baseball draft went well. Best of luck to you and best of luck to the FA Nation.
Speaker 3 00:46:00 Best of luck, FA Nation.