Daytona 500 and Duel Races Preview

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back for what is, in my opinion, the first NASCAR DFS podcast of the 2023 season. Even though we did do a preview of the Clash a couple weeks ago. I am Dan Male and I'm joined by the FS w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells. Matt and I are recording this after qualifying Wednesday nights. FanDuel still doesn't have their NASCAR DFS contest up, but we will be looking at DraftKings and for what it's worth, salaries don't really matter this week, but Matt, how you doing? How excited are you? We are about to kick off starting tomorrow night, like really realistically, like four straight days of solid, you know, stock car racing. Speaker 3 00:01:01 Yeah, cuz we got the duals on. Well first of all, I'm, I'm great. We get NASCAR back. Uh, today was also the day that pitchers and catchers, uh, recorded or reported for spring training cuz baseball is my other love. Um, so yeah, I'm doing, doing quite great. Um, we're, we've got snow in the forecast here, so anytime I get to look at sunny weather in Florida to kick off, uh, either baseball or nascar, it's a good day. So I'm, I'm, you know, pretty excited here and yes, you're right, it's basically four straight days of cars on track. We had qualifying on Wednesday and for those who are uninitiated, qualifying only sets the first, the the first row. Right. The guy who's on the pole, which is Alex Bowman now, and the guy who's starting on the outside pole, Kyle Larson, um, those are the only two guys whose positions are known. Now on Thursday we get the dual races, which are set up based on qualifying order from Wednesday night and finished position from the dual races will set both the inside line and the outside line for the starting grid for the Daytona 500. And then Friday we have the truck race and then Saturday is Xfinity and Sunday is the cup race. We also have Orca too on Thursday night, if I'm not mistaken. Speaker 2 00:02:19 Who knows? I just have to tune in for that. I Speaker 3 00:02:22 Mean it should Speaker 2 00:02:22 Be fun before the duals. Speaker 3 00:02:24 Uh, I believe so. Yeah. So should be should be a fun, fun weekend down in Daytona and then we're off and rolling folks. We don't stop till November with only one off weekend. I mean technically the All-Star race is kind of an off weekend, but not this year with, at North, north Wilkesboro not taking that weekend off, that's for sure. Um, so yeah, we're rolling at this point. Speaker 2 00:02:46 Yeah, I'm trying to see like when the ACA race actually runs, cuz that I Speaker 3 00:02:50 Thought, Speaker 2 00:02:50 Oh okay. The ACA race is one 30 on Saturday. Speaker 3 00:02:53 Oh, okay. So they shifted Speaker 2 00:02:55 It. Yeah, I mean not a big deal. Like I was just kind of confused by that one. Um, Speaker 3 00:03:00 It's usually a pretty fun race to watch actually. Speaker 2 00:03:02 Yeah, I don't mind it. It's still racing. Uh, it's usually much smaller if you have like 20 to 20 Speaker 3 00:03:06 Also, you know, we got Frankie Munez. Speaker 2 00:03:08 That's true. Yeah. If there's one reason to watch it's for Malcolm in the middle. Speaker 3 00:03:13 <laugh> wait for him to go three wide, then we get the, the Frankie Munez goes, goes in the middle Speaker 2 00:03:20 Call. Um, but we did have qualifying and as Matt said, Alex Bowman on the poll, Kyle Larson starting next to him I believe. Isn't it the same exact front row we had to start last year. Daytona 500. Speaker 3 00:03:30 Uh, yeah, just in reverse order because Lars the poll last year and Bowman was second. That's the sixth straight year. That Bowman is on the poll for the Daytona 500, which is a record Speaker 2 00:03:39 For the front row. Speaker 3 00:03:41 Uh, yeah, sorry, front row, uh, pole. He's won a couple of poles, Speaker 2 00:03:45 But, um, other notable, uh, tidbits to take away from qualifying. Uh, Jimmy Johnson in the 84 car for Legacy Motor Club, he qualified and he is in uh, Travis Pastrana, uh, with uh, 23 x i i I actually didn't think he was gonna lay down that good of a lap. Speaker 3 00:04:02 Um, yeah, I know that was surprise. That's his first lap ever in a cup car. Speaker 2 00:04:07 Yeah. Uh, and he Speaker 3 00:04:09 Looked and he makes the Daytona 500 <laugh> Speaker 2 00:04:11 Made the most of it with really good equipment. So those two are in as far as tomorrow night's dues go. Uh, I believe, uh, pop Parkers tweeted out the scenarios, but Speaker 3 00:04:21 I think Austin Hill is in, if he's the fastest open car or, or pastrana finish first. Speaker 2 00:04:29 Yes. Speaker 3 00:04:31 Uh, somebody else is also in, if they're the fastest open in their dual or Johnson or Pastrana finish first, depending on which one is in there. Dual. Um, I think, what was it, Daley has to win his dual. Speaker 2 00:04:45 Daley and Chandler Smith both have to be the top three of the open cars. Speaker 3 00:04:50 Right. Um, Speaker 2 00:04:52 So right now I'm just assuming that Austin Hill Inc. Smith are gonna make it. Speaker 3 00:04:56 Yeah, it's pretty hard to bet against Austin Hill at this point. Um, he's just pretty good at these tracks in general and looked like he had decent speed in single car qualifying for whatever it's worth. Speaker 2 00:05:09 He did. And for one it's worth, I got him at 70 to one to win the 500. So I would like to see him get in there. Speaker 3 00:05:16 <laugh> we're going long here already. Speaker 2 00:05:19 <laugh>. All right. Um, so let's just get to, I guess just a general overview. In most podcasts, Matt and I would normally go fairly in depth, uh, with strategies advice for Daytona, Talladega and, and even Atlanta. Nowadays these podcasts are generally shorter. Uh, if this is your first time playing NASCAR dfs, first of all, welcome and second of all, play very light. Uh, this is a very easy way to be turned off to NASCAR dfs. Uh, just in terms of the sheer unpredictability of it, you can, can see all the time on Twitter, how, like, starting position matters and, and avoiding the big one. Really, if this is your first time, if, if you're being lured into playing NASCAR DFS by DraftKings offers and everything, you know, maybe do one lineup and play low dollar cash games with like a single entry gpp, get your feet wet, come back for auto club next week, and then Vegas and Phoenix. Speaker 2 00:06:21 Like those are much more, those are just better races in my opinion, to really find out if NASCAR DFS is for you or if it's not. Uh, the Daytona 500, even the big GPP on DraftKings, the rake and the payoff structure is awful. It's a million to first and then I think a hundred thousand to second. And really the only top, only the top 30 spots pay at least $1,000. So it's, it's really a horribly designed contest. Um, but we're still gonna help you out and give you our strategies and what to, and how you should approach the line of structure. But if this is your first time, seriously consider being very disciplined with your bank roll. Speaker 3 00:06:59 I completely agree. And for retweet everything Dan just said. First of all, welcome, if this is your first time, glad to have you. Uh, please don't bail after the Daytona 500. It is a wild, chaotic race that starts the season. But following this, we get a run of, uh, auto Club Vegas, Phoenix, which are all much more predictable, uh, tracks generally speaking. And then, you know, we come back and still have a few more predictable tracks before we get another wild card race tossed in there with Atlanta. So, you know, for the most part, yes, NASCAR DFS is the biggest DFS sweat you can, you can have. Two years ago, uh, I won the FanDuel, one of the FanDuel Daytona gpp, uh, took home 2,500 bucks, which was great except for the fact that literally on the last turn of the last lap I was winning $0. And then Joey Logano, who is teammates with Brad Kozlowski at the time, decided to wreck each other. And Michael McDowell came through for the win, which won me might bet at 66 to one and also, uh, helped me cash out at 2,500 bucks. That should give you an idea of how wild this race is. That typically doesn't happen at just about any other Speaker 2 00:08:19 Track. So, and it's also one of the rare occurrences where it actually, like the chaos works in your favor, Speaker 3 00:08:25 Right? Cause sometimes, cause most of the time it works completely against you. Um, we will go into some strategy here. Uh, in this one we will not be do delving too deep into specific drivers to play because basically everybody's in play this week, still read the playbook I'm gonna have out on Saturday. Um, because it does give you, it whittles down the field a little bit, but just because a guy isn't in the playbook doesn't mean you can't play him this week. And that's about the only time I'm gonna tell you that. Um, but also going forward programming note, Dan and I will be doing Saturday podcasts. They will be out, uh, we will record them basically immediately following qualifying for the Cup series. Um, we are going to use them as an addendum to the playbook. So what it, what does that mean? It means we're gonna talk strategy. Speaker 3 00:09:16 It means we're gonna see how the, how the slate sets up following qualifying. Uh, and we're gonna talk some, some bets too because everybody likes bets and yes, are the better values for bets early in the week. Sure. But nobody knows who's starting anywhere at that point. So the more, uh, the sharper betters will get on it following qualifying and yeah, you'll take a little bit of a value hit, but you're still, you're more likely to get better. So please tune in on the Saturday podcast. They will be posted a top the playbook and they will also be standalones wherever you listen to your podcast. So, uh, with that, let's go ahead and dive into the strategy for, for Daytona. Speaker 2 00:10:04 Well, two things that always come to mind. If I was to really just, if I was writing a book about how to like build lineups for NASCAR dfs, especially for super speedways, um, I would say fade the front row. Speaker 3 00:10:19 Yes. Speaker 2 00:10:20 Don't play them at all. Uh, and be comfortable leaving anywhere from like $3,000 to maybe even $20,000 of salary on DraftKings left over. Um, we see the numbers every year. Um, if I recall correctly last year when Bowman and Larson were on the front row for Daytona in, in DraftKings, big gpp, those two combined for like 22% ownership. And it's great leverage to fade the front row because in general just the nature of Daytona and pack raising, they're gonna get shuffled out. They're not guaranteed for all those dominator points, which in general for super speedways are spread out amongst the field pretty evenly. Yeah. Unless there's one guy that can somehow lead 70 to a 100 laps in this race. The other thing is that you're gonna see a lot of casuals play Daytona this week, and they are used to playing other sports where you want to spend as much salary as possible for this race. Speaker 2 00:11:18 It really doesn't matter. You'll see optimal lineups from previous years where they left $8,000 on the table, 12,000. I think there was one Daytona race within the last two years where they only used like $23,000 worth of salary. So salary does not matter here. Be comfortable leaving a lot of money on the table because as we've seen in years past, typically about 30 to 40% of lineups entered in GPP contests are using either all the salary or they're leaving up about a like as much as a thousand dollars left on the table. So you're already gaining leverage just by fading the front row and being comfortable leaving a ton of money on the table. And that's just really how if for anyone that's new to the game, just be comfortable with that aspect of building lineups for this race. Speaker 3 00:12:06 Yeah, I completely agree. Normally we would tell you that you want to s you know, leave only about 1500 bucks on the table for a standard race is about as much as you would be leaving at most. Uh, but super speedways are different. Uh, you can, you'll see if you play cash games, which generally we don't recommend, we usually just recommend playing, uh, you know, not mass multi-center, the big gpp play small gpp with low, uh, you know, entry fees till you get your feet wet. If you wanna play cash games, you will see people who literally just put in the driver starting 35th through 40th in the race and just leave it at that. And you can do that. That's not the best way to build it may get you a double up in cash, but it's not gonna get you the money line of gpp. Speaker 3 00:12:57 I would say that I also echoing your thing about the front row, the last time a poll sitter won the Daytona 500 was 22 races ago. So that should tell you what you, what you need to know. Um, also when you're watching the race, please don't panic about drivers dropping back to the back of the pack. Denny Hamlin does it every single year, literally every year that's what he does. He starts up and then just rides around in the back until about 30 laps to go and then all of a sudden he's in play and he's won three of last five Daytona 500 s doing that. Speaker 2 00:13:34 I remember I was, uh, li this morning when I was awake, I was listening to NASCAR race hub and they were playing like audio from last year's Daytona 500 and they had this clip where Truex was leading and and Truex did win two stages last year. And Denny Hamlin was on his radio and he is like, why is he in front? What is he stupid? Because it is kind of like, it's a, it's just, it's really a war of attrition. Like you really just want to be in it and have a chance to win, you know, in the last 20 laps if you're wrecking in the first half of the race by trying to run out front and and collect dominator, well dominator points don't matter for the actual drivers. Um, but but truly like if you want a shot at winning this race, just make it to the end. And sometimes the safest avenue do that is just riding around and doing laps in the back. Speaker 3 00:14:19 Yeah, I mean, you know, for a while you're gonna look at your DFS score, which also, by the way, don't ever check your DFS score in NASCAR until the checkered flag. Uh, cuz you can't bank points. I mean you can a little bit with dominator points, but you can't in Daytona. Like it doesn't, it doesn't matter at Daytona. So please don't check before the checker flag cuz it, and by the way, if there's a wreck on the final lap, your score's gonna change about 10 times before it goes <laugh> official. Um, so you know, those are all a little bit of news and notes about Daytona. It's a special track, which is also why we're doing a Wednesday pod and uh, the Saturday pod. Cuz starting spots don't actually fully matter here, but in general, if you're gonna build a lineup, the best way to do it for super speedways is generally pick one guy in the top 10 that has a pretty good track history, um, of sticking around and completing laps. Speaker 3 00:15:16 We also wanna look at laps completed. Uh, this week is gonna be a big sta to look at because the guys who are on the track the longest have the best shots to win. It's just fact if you're on the track later in the race, you have a better shot to win anybody who crashed out early in the race. Right. Um, and then the rest of the lineup we're gonna fill from guys starting 20th to about 35th. And if you wanna take a shot a guy starting after 35th, that's fine, but I'm not gonna go entirely 35th on back cuz most of the time they don't actually return value at that point. Most of the guys that return the nice point totals have started between 20th and like 33rd. Um, so you know, you can, and please for whatever you do, let's say for sake of argument that Denny Hamlin is starting in the top 10 and you're in love with him because he's won three of the last five Daytona 500 s and he has the best average finish of anybody in the field of the last nine Daytona 500 s. Speaker 3 00:16:18 He's one of only two drivers who are sub 10 on their average finish in that span. Don't load up on Denny, don't play 'em in more than 30% of lineups. So if you're building 10 lineups, don't go with more than three with Denny in it because if he wrecks out, which is possible, everybody can wreck at Daytona. Yep. You don't want seven of your lineups tanked because you were betting big on on Denny. Um, so 30% is about the cap here, maybe a little less, maybe 25%. Um, at other tracks I'd be fine with going as high as 50% for, you know, exposure to a driver but not a Daytona or Talladega or Atlanta. Speaker 2 00:17:09 Uh, the DK mill maker, uh, has 100 basically 107,000 total entries. It's currently only has like 10,500 reserved. Do you think it fills? Yes, it did last year, but it took until like Sunday morning for it to fill. Speaker 3 00:17:24 Yeah, I think it'll fill, I think everybody knows the waiting game with Daytona at this point. I think those that got in early or the die hards with NASCAR or they got their tickets punched for the milli maker. Like you've got a couple of those, right? Yeah. So, yep. Um, it's people who used crowns for it. It's people who've used tickets for it and it's diehards who just want a shot at a million bucks and this is the only NASCAR race they're gonna play because they love playing milli makers. Right. Um, the people Speaker 2 00:17:58 I will say like, you'll probably see those, uh, those, um, you'll probably see those, uh, offers pop up from DraftKings too to like, you know, enter your a lineup in the milli maker contest, get X amount of crowns or get like a future ticket. So I can also see the people waiting for that reason as well. Speaker 3 00:18:14 I mean there's also this week they typically use other sports and they'll be like, Hey, win this and win a ticket to the NASCAR milli maker. If you take down this like N hhl G P P or N B G P or yeah. Um, although the NBA is coming up on the all-star break soon, so we'll see, we'll see how that goes. Um, but yeah, I you're, you're gonna wanna leave money on the table, you're gonna wanna live in the mid-tier this week or below. Um, usually it's very hard for the guys who are over 10 k to really crush it here. Um, we can talk value, it's a different sort of value at Daytona because it's not a whole lot of lapse led, it's finished position points and position differential. But you know, it it, I find it tough to bank on $10,000 guys at Daytona. Speaker 2 00:19:13 Yeah. I don't think you really consider value here. Like you're not looking for five x or six x or seven x value really. Right? I feel like you want six guys in a lineup that are gonna get at least 45 to 50 points in cash games. The, the, the cash line will be very low in terms of the point total. Uh, but for a gpp, if you're really gonna hit the optimal lineup, you need to be upwards of 280 points probably in the 300 point range. Yeah. So, you know, like we're not looking for value, but you do need to play a little bit of like game script theory and see like, you know, what's the, what is this driver's path to getting 50 points or, and you know, consider that for everybody. But at the same, at the end of the day, everybody that you're picking still needs to survive any like Rex carnage, you know, they really need to just not be involved in the big one. Speaker 3 00:20:08 Yeah. Essentially like anybody can have the same game script here, right? Like for example, Ryan Blaney was ten three last year at the Daytona 500. He put up 53 points, which you would take, that's pretty reasonable. That's close to five X for him, right? Just shy. But you also have tied Dylan who went off at 5,300 bucks and he put up 48 points, right? So under normal circumstances on a normal week you would rather have Ty Dylan because he's, that's a bigger value return, right? That's almost 10 x. But yeah, um, you know it Daytona it doesn't really, it doesn't really matter. You you, you'll take both of 'em because they both put up 48 plus points like and salary is way less of a concern at Daytona that it doesn't really matter that oh Blaney was 10, you know, over 10 K. Speaker 2 00:21:12 So getting back to line of construction, if you're in the NASCAR DFS discord this weekend and if you ask for our opinions on a lineup for this race in Talladega and Atlanta, it's very hard for Matt and I to really take a massive dump on any lineup. Speaker 3 00:21:28 Uh, unless you're starting like three dudes in the top 10. Exactly. Speaker 2 00:21:31 And Speaker 3 00:21:31 We're gonna tell you no that was a bad idea. Speaker 2 00:21:33 <laugh> you and we can get into a separate DFS strategy for the duals because for the duals I actually am okay starting maybe two or three guys starting in the top eight. Um, but like for the actual 500 really if you're gonna start anyone in the top 10, and I know Matt kind of hashed on this, but for me personally, if I'm playing gpp, I'm fine starting some one person in the top 10, maybe another person starting in the top 15 to 18. And then from there I'm really kind of like rounding out my final like three or four drivers that are gonna be starting outside the top 20, Speaker 3 00:22:06 Right? And for cash I'm probably not playing anybody inside the top 10. Speaker 2 00:22:13 Uh, yeah, you're, no that's probably accurate just because you know, you're really just trying to establish a much better floor. You don't really want to start anybody in the top 10 because if they wreck or just finish you know five to 10 spots farther back like they're just collecting negative PD and they're just other, they're just safer, safer drivers that you'll play that can get you to get you into the Speaker 3 00:22:32 Green, right? The other thing with with cash games is that everybody's gonna be on the back, the guy's in the back, right? So there's going to be quote unquote chalk plays um, in cash games at Daytona even though it doesn't seem like there should be, there will be because everybody in cash games is hunting PD and the guys that can get you PD are starting 20th and worse, right? But here's the advantage to the cash game chalk at Daytona, if that guy wrecks a bunch of people have 'em. So it doesn't really kill you if you play a top 10 guy in a cash game lineup at Daytona, basically nobody's gonna have him in a cash game, right? Like for example Alex Bowman ridiculously fast and qualifying lit the pants off of Kyle Larson who lit the pants off of Byron, right? So people might go, oh well I'm gonna take Bowman for early laps lead and he'll be great, whatever. Speaker 3 00:23:29 Even though he probably won't hold the lead very long, let's just say, oh I'll just get a jump on people with some dominator points early, okay? But he's gonna be very low owned. So the only way you get leverage on the field in cash games is if Bowman doesn't wreck. But if Bowman drops back now you're the only idiot that played him and that kills you because everybody else is playing guys who have moved up to replace Bowman and so they get the bonus points for the PD and you've lost out on it. Cuz bombing will can get you negative PD obviously by dropping back. So in cash games just go with guys that are starting towards the back half of the field and you know, all you gotta do is cross the, the cash line to win. It's not like if you win first you get more money then the guy who finished in the the last cash spot, you all win the same amount in the cash game. So that's the strategy for cash or gpp. You can pause in a top 10 guy, uh, some guy in the, you know, 11 through 18th and the rest of 'em are further back. Speaker 2 00:24:41 Now do you still endorse the idea of either manufacturing stacking labs or team stacks for lineups or would it still, is that contingent on you know, where they all start? Because obviously it's nobody really wants to go with a Hendrix stack right now because three of them are starting in, you know, the front two rows. Speaker 3 00:25:01 Yeah. Assuming Byron Winds is dual and starts third, right? Cuz dual one starts on the inside line and dual two starts on the outside line. So if Byron wins the dual, he'll start third. If he finishes in the middle of his dual, he'll start in the middle of the pack, right? The only two guys we know are Byron and Larson. So uh, or sorry Bowman and Larson. Um, I am, there is one team that I'm fine with stacking and it's Penske, I guess there's two, there's SR and there's Penske, right? Speaker 2 00:25:35 I mean either way they're Fords, Speaker 3 00:25:36 Right? They're Fords. But I'm a bigger fan of stacking manufacturers rather than stacking um teams because for a couple reasons, one, and this has happened at Penske I think two of the last three years where the team where teammates have wrecked each other coming to the line, we saw it with Logano and Klowski and then last year we saw uh, Blaney pushing Cric and then Blaney pulled out a line to try to beat Cric and Cric Walden and just crushed him for no reason <laugh>. So, um, I'm a bigger fan of doing of mixing and matching teams but sticking with the same manufacturer because they know how to like the cars line up better and they can push better. Um, whereas teammates are still gonna fight each other for wins. So when it comes down to it, if you had Cindrich and Blaney last year, sure you worked great with Cindrich but you got crushed late with Blaney who was looking great until he got wrecked, right? Um, whereas if you had stacked the year before, let's say you stacked Fords and you went McDowell and Baby Logano and you had Blaney in there or you go Logano, sorry, you go Blaney and McDowell and a and like Harvick and a few other Fords, then you've limited yourself to when teammates decide to take each other out. So I'm a bigger fan of the manufacturers also. They tend to pit together so they can gain and lose position differential roughly at the same time. Speaker 2 00:27:19 Were there anything, was there anything else you wanted to touch on? Um, as far as like actual for DFS purpose? Cause I wasn't sure if we wanted to just pivot and maybe throw down some of our preferred bets that we've already taken or Speaker 3 00:27:32 No, I'm gonna stay away from naming guys for DFS cuz I've kind of already said basically anybody's in play who's in the field. By the way, if you're building lineups right now, don't go with guys who have to win their duel to make the field not, I mean you'll have to tweak, you have to remember to go online <laugh>, you know, uh, this weekend and tweak stuff. So it's generally not great. Also don't pay attention to, I think there's practice on Saturday if I'm not mistaken. Don't pay attention to it. I'm sure anybody's gonna be on track. Speaker 2 00:28:06 They needed practice before qualifying. Yeah and Speaker 3 00:28:08 They didn't, whoever is on track it, none of the times matter because even if you see, oh this guy had the fastest time, he was probably in the middle of the draft because that's where the fastest times come from. So just don't pay attention to practice this weekend. That's about the only time I'm gonna tell you not to do that. Um, so yeah we can, we can touch on some of our favorite uh, bets. I did see that dk um, and we're gonna hone in on DK cuz I am in a state where it's not technically legal yet to bet and so DK is about the only sports book I can actually see their odds that I can the same Speaker 2 00:28:43 And so yeah cuz like FanDuel I can't get in. Um, I haven't tried some I Speaker 3 00:28:47 Can some offshores but I can't legally recommend that You bet there cuz it's yeah Speaker 2 00:28:51 Shores uh, I will be driving to Tennessee Saturday morning to place a few more bets and then uh, Speaker 3 00:28:57 Is it not stable in South Carolina? Speaker 2 00:29:00 I'm in Georgia. Speaker 3 00:29:01 I know but is Speaker 2 00:29:03 Actually closer that I don't know but for me I'm closer. It's a shorter drive for me just to like drive north to like basically Chattanooga. Speaker 3 00:29:12 Yeah. Okay. Um, so, so yeah we're just gonna focus on dk you know they have some driver props up. Uh, it's a lot of winners and top threes and top fives right now. Uh, you can scout for better lines if you want to. Um, depends on if it's legal in your state or not or where you're gonna bet or if you have to drive to another state to do it. Cuz I could, I could drive to Iowa and go play some pets. Speaker 2 00:29:41 See the one thing I don't like about DraftKings though in their sports book is that they do like winner top three and top five. I don't like that. Like it like well they Speaker 3 00:29:51 Top tens but they usually wait until after the order is set. Speaker 2 00:29:55 Okay, that's fair. Like because I know there are other books out there that are currently offering top tens, Speaker 3 00:30:01 Um Right, that's the thing like if you wanted to bet top tens you could scout it at another book. Like if it's legal for you. Sorry for the noise in the background, my cat apparently has the zoomies. Um, if it's legal for you you can scout whatever books you want to scout. But yes, DK should have top tens up um, on I would assume maybe Friday following the duals cuz we'll know the starting order then. Speaker 2 00:30:28 Right. Um, but I would say like if, if you're uncomfortable or if you're not sure how to like really play NASCAR dfs, then if you can bet on the Daytona 500 a high variance race, I would absolutely do so. Um, you, like Matt said earlier, he hit um, Michael McDowell at 66 to one to win the Daytona 500 a couple years ago. Um, I have Austin Hill at 70 to one currently. He still needs to qualify for the actual race. I also have Ty Dylan one 50 to one. Um, and then I also have shorter things. Uh, I got Eric Jones initially at 25 to one on dk but then I just saw like he went back to 30 to one so I'm pretty sure I'm gonna have to lay a little bit more on that. Speaker 3 00:31:11 Yeah. Um, my favorite right now is gonna make Ed Ralphs pretty happy. Uh, Blaney has has been my favorite all week. Um, and I love that DK moved Larson up to 10 to one Blaney and Z Blaney's still 12 to one so I'm still getting a little value on <laugh>. On Blaney <laugh> also by the way, if you're new to NASCAR and this is your first time betting normal races don't have favorites that are 10 and 12 to one normal races have favorites that are like Speaker 2 00:31:39 Four 50 to 50 Speaker 3 00:31:41 Or six 50 or if you are Chase Elliot having won the same race four years in a row, you might off plus two 50 I've seen before. So these races are special. Okay. They're also ones where you want to spread, you want to bet smaller increments and spread it more around so you have more opportunities to hit and focus a little bit more on longer odds than we would typically recommend. Right? Like McDowell at 66 to one, I would almost never bet at any other race. It's just he's a very good plate racer and it almost didn't hit by the way <laugh>, it took a wreck in front of him and him holding off four other dudes for it to hit. Um, Austen Cindra are going off at 20 to one. Is that interesting to you? Speaker 2 00:32:32 Um, not really, uh, just because I think that I would prefer to find a book. I feel like you could probably find another book where you can get him at longer odds and I feel like there he's just getting slightly preferential treatment because he won this race last year. Speaker 3 00:32:48 Yeah, I mean I also don't know why cuz last he's 18 to one Speaker 2 00:32:55 Probably just dating back to, he should be Speaker 3 00:32:58 Like if you look up his average, his average finish over the last nine Daytona 500, specifically only Daytona 521.4. The best finish was third nine races ago, then he finished ninth last year, which is his next best finish. Everything else is like 12th or worse including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 finishes of 20th or worse. So like why is he 18 to one? Is he, is he their hedge against others because he Speaker 2 00:33:39 Might be. But I just scrolled down and uh, based on what we saw last night and I understand the speeds that Dave ran and I are gonna be completely different from what we see on Sunday, but Harrison Burton is 70 to one. Speaker 3 00:33:51 Yeah. I mean Justin Haley's Speaker 2 00:33:54 And that's a Pensky like cousin car. Speaker 3 00:33:56 Yeah. Justin Haley's 40 to one and all that guy does is win super Speedway races like legitimately I'm pretty sure every race win of his career Speaker 2 00:34:05 Yeah. Was dominated at super speedways in Xfinity. Speaker 3 00:34:07 Yeah. I mean I might even get some money on Corey la a hundred doing, Speaker 2 00:34:15 I've seen a lot of people lay money on that one and I don't hate it. Um, Speaker 3 00:34:20 I'm not saying he's like five bucks, Speaker 2 00:34:23 There's a reason he's a hundred to one but he does routinely move up and very good candidate to probably start outside of the top 30 and probably finish in the top 15. He almost won Atlanta uh, in the summer of last year, which is basically now a a a drafting track. It's not a super speedway by Speaker 3 00:34:42 We we, we talked about how Klowski had two top 10 finishes in the last nine Daytona 500 s right? Speaker 2 00:34:50 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:34:51 La Joy's had two in the last three. Speaker 2 00:34:53 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:34:56 I mean and he's been in position to win a a couple like he's been up front for a couple of those. Speaker 2 00:35:06 He's very good in the draft. Um, he's had very good fortune just in avoiding the big one and so he'll, Speaker 3 00:35:15 Let's put it this way, he has the same average finish over over the last nine Daytona 500 s is Kyle Larson and Larson's the favorite, Speaker 2 00:35:27 Which is stupid <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:35:29 I'm not saying it's smart for DK to have Larson as the favorite. I'm just saying if we're looking at what odds, like what you can discern from odds, yeah those guys are 10 x apart and they have the same average finish over over the same span. Speaker 2 00:35:46 I just still can't get past Harrison burn at 7 81. I think that might be my favorite bet that I've not placed yet. Speaker 3 00:35:56 Yeah. Any love for Ryan? Speaker 2 00:36:00 What's he at? Probably 40. Speaker 3 00:36:02 Lemme double check. He might be Speaker 2 00:36:04 At 30. Wow. Speaker 3 00:36:05 Uh, not at 30. That's too short. Speaker 2 00:36:07 Yeah, Speaker 3 00:36:08 That's a little too little too short. I'd rather take Stanhouse at 30 to one. Speaker 2 00:36:12 Dude, my brother-in-law got Alola at 40 to one and he's currently 35 to one. I don't know if I would take 35 but I think 40 is a great number. Speaker 3 00:36:20 Yeah, I mean I like, I mean Amarillo's been fantastic. He won Talladega a few years ago. I just love Erola from when I, when he won me money at 80 to one in New Hampshire two years Speaker 2 00:36:31 Ago. <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:36:32 Yeah <laugh>. But if people looked at me like I was stupid for taking that bat and then he <laugh> and then he won it. Um, in fact I'm pretty sure the nascar, the series xm NASCAR radio guys laughed at me when they, when they said what was my long shot of the week and I said Almar and then it hit and Chocolate Myers had <laugh> apologized to me. <laugh>, there's some interesting, there's certainly some interesting ones. I mean I've already, it's gonna go, Speaker 2 00:36:59 I've already laid plenty of money down for like winners. I think the only two that I personally would still chase are probably just to get more money on Eric Jones cuz I got him at 25. So obviously one exposure at 30 to one. Right. I think the other one I'd probably take is gonna be Harrison Burton. Maybe a very light play on Riley Herbs who doesn't have a career win to his name, but he does have uh, pretty good results in the Xfinity series at Daytona. Um, maybe I would take a shot at Ryan Blaney. I don't know. I like to get a little fun and creative with my, with high variance tracks and so 12 to one still seems kind of short in my opinion, but he could, he could very well, I mean he's a one of the favorites for a reason and like that team and, and the, I mean the Penske and the Fords and they're meant for super speedway racing. Speaker 3 00:37:51 Here's my next question. Would you take Denny Hamlin to 2 0 1 for a top five? Speaker 2 00:37:56 No, Speaker 3 00:37:58 I might. I'm Mike your money. The last nine Daytona 500 s, he's finished in the top five seven times. He is easily the driver with the most. Kevin Harvick is next with four in that same span. And then Logano and Blaney and Austin, Dillon and McDowell who we all love as plate racers all have three or fewer. Speaker 2 00:38:24 I don't hate it then. Um, saying I'm looking for a top five at a high variance track, I'd like it to be probably at least plus three 50. Speaker 3 00:38:36 Yeah. I mean it's not as good Speaker 2 00:38:40 As, I'd almost rather just go with Bubba Wallace at plus two 80 for a top five. Speaker 3 00:38:46 It's hard to know. I mean he's been really good here the last few years. Yeah, like really good. My cat is still going off by the way. That's good. Apparently, uh, he's got, well so this is, this is the interesting, so he's finished, he finished second in his first one then 38th, 15th, 17th and second last year. Like Austin, Dylan has the same number of top fives in the last five Daytona of five hundreds as Bub Wallace. That's just like Blaney's got I blaney's going off at two to one. So if you like the better odds I might lean like plus three 30 for a top five knowing that if you're gonna take Bubba plus two 80, Austin Dillon's got the same number of top fives in the same span. Mm-hmm Speaker 2 00:39:33 <affirmative> any interest in rookies? Speaker 3 00:39:40 Yeah. This is one of the races where I don't have a problem playing rookies because Speaker 2 00:39:46 A rookie won in last year. <laugh>, Speaker 3 00:39:49 I mean a rookie won last year. Yeah. Now here's my question though. What if it's Ty Gibbs, are people going to trust him and work with him up front or are they gonna shuffle him back because they think he's Yeah, Speaker 2 00:40:10 I don't think anybody would wanna work with him. Speaker 3 00:40:13 Right. So you're he Speaker 2 00:40:16 Is incredibly dangerous. Speaker 3 00:40:19 Yeah. Also he's in a disadvantage because he's in a Toyota and there's far fewer Toyotas than there are Fords or Chevys. Speaker 2 00:40:25 Is there like seven of 'em in Speaker 3 00:40:27 This race? I think so. Um, because Pastrana made it in a 2311 car. So there's seven or eight of them. I know Greg's not technically a rookie. He ran a part-time schedule last year. Speaker 2 00:40:43 What sort of Gibbs? Speaker 3 00:40:46 Well that's true, that's true. Speaker 2 00:40:48 But I'm also saying like with rookies, um, I'm also talking about Austin Hill who I did bet on. Um, even someone, I mean Travis Pastrana I guess, but also Chandler Smith herbs. Speaker 3 00:41:00 Yeah, Zane Smith makes it Speaker 2 00:41:03 True. Yep. Speaker 3 00:41:04 I mean it's unlikely, you know, Connor Daley's an absolute long shot to make the field to begin with. So it's possible. I mean it's not, it was not out of the question. I would say the only one I'm skittish of is Gibbs mainly cause it's a Toyota and he's Tide Gibbs. Speaker 2 00:41:27 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:41:28 I'm gonna try not to hold that against him all year. But like you're playing with the big boys now son, like <laugh> you, you screw up. It doesn't even matter. Like it doesn't even matter if like you wreck one of your teammates, one of them is gonna pop you swear in the face. It doesn't even matter if you're the grandson, like the grandson of the boss. They're gonna straight up Pia. Speaker 2 00:41:52 I feel like though this is a race where any kind of wreck, no matter whose fault it is, like there's, there's very little animosity when they get back to the garage and all that just cuz they all understand the dangers of this track. And, and a lot of times when guys get wreck out and they interview them afterwards like everyone's disappointed and upset but at the end of the day it's like, you know, like that's just drafting. Like that's just the nature of the beast here. And Kyle Bush has a t-shirt that he wears during the truck race that just says, you know, most expensive weekend of the year. Speaker 3 00:42:23 Yeah, I mean I'm sure Tony Stewart's gonna be in the Fox booth sweating bullets, <laugh> watching, watching his investment go up and smoke to use his uh, nickname. Um, some of these matchups are intriguing. Speaker 2 00:42:39 Oh I have no interest in those. I was looking at driver props Speaker 3 00:42:43 Like the group. What about the group winners? Speaker 2 00:42:46 Group winners? Speaker 3 00:42:48 They have group. Oh hey these are for Yes Daytona 500 group winners. The group D is hilarious to me because all of them are the same odds. Speaker 2 00:43:00 Group B you can get Byron at plus two 90, which I think is very interesting. Speaker 3 00:43:04 Yeah, Byron would've to be Logano, Kyle Bush and Chastain. Speaker 2 00:43:09 I could see that happening. That's a pretty good bet. Speaker 3 00:43:14 You could also see my cat is just all over the place here. Um, I could also see Kyle Bush winning that group too. Not as, not as sexy of odds to be sure. 12 to five is what? Two 40? Speaker 2 00:43:34 Yes. Speaker 3 00:43:35 So little downtick in the odds. But, but it's funny to me that a and d have all of the same odds. All of them are going off at Yeah. Plus two 60. It's like group, Speaker 2 00:43:50 Group C is not the prettiest group, but you are getting the de the defending Daytona 500 champion at plus two 80 against Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick and Brad Klowski. Like that's not awful for Austin Cindrich, but I think if I was to bet one of these, it would probably be William Byron to win group B. Speaker 3 00:44:10 Yeah, I think I'm, I think I'm with you. There's just no return on a or T to really Speaker 2 00:44:15 No, I'm with you Speaker 3 00:44:17 In, I mean they're all going off at the same office, so what's the point in Speaker 2 00:44:21 Especially because in group D we know Bowman's on the pole and I just don't love the track history of pole sitters at Daytona. Speaker 3 00:44:29 Yeah, I mean it's Group D is Harvard, Dylan, Austin, Dylan I should say. Cuz there's two of them, uh, C Bell and Bowman and they're all going off at two plus two 60, which is plus two 60. So I don't know, it's a crapshoot for me out of those <laugh>. I'm not getting, you're not getting any return to swing in one way or another. So, um, and group A is Elliot, Blaney, Larson and Hamlin, which are all guys who could win the Daytona 500 and they're all going off at the same odds. So I'd rather just take, like, bet them to win rather than one beat before the matchups. Uh, I don't know. I dunno. I, I don't have a feeling one way or the other about the matchups. So that's our betting chat. We've done strategy, we've got content coming out this weekend. Uh, um, Dan and I posted our content schedules in Discord, uh, earlier on Wednesday. Um, we will be in Discord much of the weekend. Speaker 2 00:45:40 Yeah, we're very active in the Discord, so do not hesitate to ask questions. One of us will answer. Speaker 3 00:45:46 Um, and no guys dropping to the back for failing tech or whatever. It does not matter here. It basically didn't matter at all last year <laugh> in any track except for maybe Martinsville. Um, so yeah, we'll be open to any of your questions. As long as there's not like three dudes starting in the top 10 in your lineup, we'll probably be fine with it. Speaker 2 00:46:09 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:46:10 Um, but yeah, let's start the, let's start the year on a good note and, uh, enjoy the race weekend. We got. Yeah, quite a lot of action. Speaker 2 00:46:21 All right Matt, well thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you this Sunday and if anyone else is playing the track and Xfinity series races. But best of luck to you and best of luck to the FA Nations weekend. Speaker 3 00:46:30 Best of luck FA Nation.