Episode 28

September 02, 2023


Cook Out Southern 500 NASCAR DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Cook Out Southern 500 NASCAR DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Cook Out Southern 500 NASCAR DFS Preview

Sep 02 2023 | 00:30:23


Show Notes

Matt Selz & Edward Raus preview the field for NASCAR DFS and Betting for the Cook Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Get the strategy, track info, and driver breakdowns to set your lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel or make sharp plays betting the race!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's up everybody? Welcome to the NASCAR D F SS Playbook podcast This week for the cookout Southern 500, I am joined by Ed Rouse this week. Dan Malin is on a mini vacation. So what's up Rouse? How's it going? Speaker 3 00:00:40 Another mail-in vacation means another Ed Rouse, but I'm doing, doing, doing good man. We got college football kicking off this weekend. The N F L is here, NASCAR's in the playoffs. So I'm a, I'm a aesthetic little boy even though <crosstalk> Speaker 2 00:00:54 Yeah, I've already, this morning we're recording this Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying this morning I watched a bonkers qualifying effort in for, in Formula one for Monza, uh, that saw Ferrari. Absolutely bring it to Red Bull. And then I watched two e p l races or races matches, see 'em all over the place with sports. Man, I can't even keep the term straight. Two e p o matches. And then I watched practice and qualifying at Darlington, which is where we find ourselves this weekend. Boy, this is gonna be a tough test to start the playoffs, um, at, at practice guys that were running 20 laps saw second and a half tire fall off between their 20th lap and their first lap. So tire management like always is gonna be the name of the game here at Darlington. So that, that's good to see, to be honest, after a stretch of races here where tires haven't really mattered. Right. They didn't matter at Daytona. Mm-hmm. That didn't matter on the road courses. Mm-hmm. Didn't really matter at Michigan. Speaker 3 00:01:59 Mm-hmm. Speaker 2 00:02:01 Didn't really matter at New Hampshire before that. So like, it's good to see that tires matter this week. Speaker 3 00:02:09 Yeah, no, totally. It's gonna be a very interesting race with a very interesting strategy. Saving tires. Um, is, there's gonna be some tires being blown during the race and it's just, I, I expect some cautions and a lot of interesting, like again, strategy, strategy, strategy, strategy. You gotta look and say who has the best strategic spotters and, and it's like strategic crew here in this race to kind of pick out some, some of the best racers. Speaker 2 00:02:36 Yeah. So there's, there's a lot of little tidbits here to go off of with what you just talked about a cautions. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. In the last 12 races at Darlington, there have been an average of eight and a half cautions a race. Dang <laugh>. Okay. Now some of those are a little boosted 'cause of stage racing, but if you figure there's only two cautions for the stages, that means there's an average of at least six and a half natural yellows a race, which is a lot to be honest. Um, it comes from tires. We're gonna see guys getting into the wall. Hell, Kyle Larsson already got into the wall twice at practice. He came in from his first run of five laps and the paint was missing from the right side wheel well already. Um, we saw Darlington stripes in the Xfinity practice, which the race is now going on as we're recording this. Speaker 2 00:03:25 So that's certainly part of it. Um, we're gonna see cars get loose as the track changes. Um, it's gonna be tight fighting for, for track positions. And in terms of crews, there was a change in the J G R camp this week. Ty Gibbs lost his crew chief, uh, pit crew to Christopher Bell 'cause Ty Gibbs has had the best pit crew all season but didn't make the playoffs. So they switched it to Christopher Bell who is in the playoffs. That's gonna be a big boost for seatbelt 'cause we know he could have won a couple other races, had the, had his crew. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> not screwed some stuff up, uh, late in the races. So that's a big switch. I don't think it's gonna affect Ty Gibbs all that much to be honest. 'cause Speaker 3 00:04:17 It could affect Belle though, right? You get like one of the best pit crews in the entire season. You shave a few seconds. I mean that could be something you Speaker 2 00:04:27 Would hope that it would, that it would help C Bell. If they swap out pit crews and he still making the same mistakes, then it's not the pit crew, it's him <laugh>. Um, so, you know, Speaker 3 00:04:37 <laugh>, Speaker 2 00:04:38 That's, that's something certainly to watch 'cause track position is going to be Speaker 3 00:04:42 Key. Well, won't Bell have the number one pit too because he was the top qualifier. So he'll be in the, he's one pit box with Ty Gibbs crew. That makes, that's, Speaker 2 00:04:51 That's a huge advantage. 'cause the number one pit box here is huge. You can drive straight out of it and you're almost never gonna get caught for speeding unless you absolutely light up the tires. Um, if Kyle Busch were there, he'd find a way to get caught for speeding but hundred percent <laugh>. So, um, so that's gonna be a huge role for sure. The cautions. And now we're talking about pit crew. So Christopher Bell should be in a good spot at a track with a lot of cautions. Pit crew should make a difference here. But the key thing we're looking at this week for strategy is who had long run speed? Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, because long runs here indicate you can manage your tires. Guys that can manage their tires often do very well at Darlington. So in that regard, if we look back at practice and it's not exactly a cut and dry situation. 'cause again they did the stupid group practices and group B faster than group A for qualifying times and and whatnot. But if you look at 10 lap average, it's the same guy that led it as LED five lap and 15 lap. And that's Austin centric. Speaker 3 00:06:05 Hmm. Speaker 2 00:06:05 Coming outta nowhere here. Speaker 3 00:06:08 Ford Penske too. Speaker 2 00:06:10 It is a Ford and it is a Penske so that's something to pay attention to. Is teammate your guy Ryan Blaney? Speaker 3 00:06:18 Yes, sir. Was Speaker 2 00:06:19 Second, um, to Austin. Cedric in 10 lap average and he was Speaker 3 00:06:24 Four again, third Speaker 2 00:06:26 In 15 lap average. So these are things we wanna look at. You also wanna look at 20 lap average. And I might even sneak in there with 25 lap average in the playbook. 'cause despite all the cautions, there are a lot of laps here. Speaker 3 00:06:45 Crick is going off 14th and he's 6,100 RSS on draft gigs. Speaker 2 00:06:49 He's gonna be popular. Yes. Speaker 3 00:06:51 <laugh> not Speaker 2 00:06:52 As popular as Martin Trex JR though. Speaker 3 00:06:54 You think Truex will be the Well yeah, because he's Yeah, but his price, Speaker 2 00:06:58 He's starting like 30th Speaker 3 00:07:00 <laugh> 31st. Yeah. His price though. He's the second highest behind Hamley, who's starting second. Um, Speaker 2 00:07:06 Okay. But may, Speaker 3 00:07:08 I don't know if I can do, uh, ten eight. That's a lot. Speaker 2 00:07:11 I mean it is, but he really only has to get back to like 15th to hit value. Speaker 3 00:07:16 That's true. Which I think he will. Speaker 2 00:07:18 I think he will too. Speaker 3 00:07:19 Even at ten eight. Yeah. Uh, Speaker 2 00:07:21 See if we look at, if we look at lap averages, which by the way, he ran 15 consecutive laps overall lap average. He's eighth fastest. If you look at 15 laps, the man is top five in lap average truex. That is. Speaker 3 00:07:37 So I'm just seeing what kind of lineup I could get him in if, if I do a truex cric stack for like a A G P P 'cause cric now you're still even with that, you're what your average driver is 82 so you're still gotta kind of middle it out, right? Speaker 2 00:07:53 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:07:55 I don't like that eight two. Like you, you got Bubba Eric Jones, which I like. Speaker 2 00:08:00 I actually think Bubba's sneaky this week. Speaker 3 00:08:02 You could. Okay. I'll, you know, play. So now we're at 84. It could get Blaney for 86. Speaker 2 00:08:08 Well you knew you were gonna fit Blaney in there. That's not that <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:08:11 Okey know. Speaker 2 00:08:13 Not a shocker. Okay. Right. Speaker 3 00:08:15 I know. And then it's kind of like no man's land here to kind of fill out your last spot. So, uh, Speaker 2 00:08:21 So Truex, you have who? True, true. Speaker 3 00:08:23 X Bubba Cindrich, Eric Jones. 'cause I like Eric Jones this week. Um, Blaney Speaker 2 00:08:30 And Bum and that Speaker 3 00:08:32 And that was with 83, but it's Right. A cut where you could kind of, you're gonna leave some money on the board, which is fine. Speaker 2 00:08:37 Which is fine. It's always advised to leave money on the board. Speaker 3 00:08:40 But here's you got Swar, but you're in a Speaker 2 00:08:43 Weird Speaker 3 00:08:44 Bowman. Yeah. McDowell Gibbs ENT house. No, Dylan, Speaker 2 00:08:49 I don't know. There there is some interesting plays in that, in that range, which is a good segue to, you should read the playbook 'cause there's some guys in that range that may or may not find their way into the playbook this week. Um, but it's certainly an interesting slate to build because I think there's, I think there's a bonafide cash build out there based on pd. I think there's some very chalk cash plays. Truex one. Uh, I think Larsson is another one. Um, although for me he's not really a chalk cash play. And we'll talk, I'll have that playbook too. Yeah. Know. Um, I think a lot of people are gonna play Chastain. Speaker 3 00:09:33 Yeah. Yeah. 27th. Even though Speaker 2 00:09:35 I'm not a hundred percent sold on them. Speaker 3 00:09:37 Um, uh, who's, who's starting fifth because the the, don't you have that little tidbit about whoever starts fifth? Speaker 2 00:09:45 I do. I am very torn about this because the guy who's starting fifth has a very good history here. Speaker 3 00:09:50 Oh, it's Klowski. Oh Speaker 2 00:09:51 It's Klowski <laugh>. He has a very good history here. He's had a very good history at similar tracks. Um, obviously his teammate slash car he owns has won three times in the last five races. Looked pretty good again in practice. But the driver who has started fifth in this race or at Darlington in the last five races averages the 28th highest score on DraftKings and the 33rd highest score on FanDuel in that span. Regardless of who it's been now I will say it was the same guy twice, but <laugh>, it's not been a very good run for guys starting fifth. So I will have to balance that and, and try to figure out how I'm putting that into the playbook to be perfectly honest. Yeah. Speaker 3 00:10:43 They keep on pricing. Kids ask you right, with pusher, don't they? It seems like every week Speaker 2 00:10:47 They do, they kind of make it choose between Speaker 3 00:10:50 Two. The two, one of the two can Speaker 2 00:10:51 Play both of them. Yeah. But it seems futile almost to play both R f K guys but Speaker 3 00:10:58 Showed some speed in practice in qualifying. Speaker 2 00:11:00 He did. Now how concerned are you with the Chevys this week? Speaker 3 00:11:04 Oh, a little <laugh>. Speaker 2 00:11:07 They didn't have speed at practice or qualifying Speaker 3 00:11:09 <laugh>. Yeah. Well, um, Speaker 2 00:11:11 Lemme put it this way. Kyle Larsson had speed. Wow. And then screwed up his qualifying lap. Speaker 3 00:11:16 Yeah. But it, Speaker 2 00:11:17 It's the first time in 41 years at Darlington that there's, that there's not a Chevy starting in the top 10. Speaker 3 00:11:24 So I was just looking at that. I was like, is there even one in the top 10? There isn't. Nope. Speaker 2 00:11:28 The top 10 from qualifying was seven Ford Toyotas and three Toyotas. And the Toyotas beat all of the Fords for the first three spots in the grid. Speaker 3 00:11:38 Mm-hmm. <affirmative> Hammond. Yep, yep, yep. Len at fourth though. So he's the top four Ford. Um, yeah, I mean what is Chase Elliott the highest Chevy? Speaker 2 00:11:51 Yes. Speaker 3 00:11:53 At 13th. Wow. Speaker 2 00:11:55 I think so. Let me double check. But I'm pretty sure he's the highest starting. Speaker 3 00:12:00 Yeah, I'd, I'd be, I'd be very concerned about the Chevys. Speaker 2 00:12:04 Not to mention that the guy who's leading the Chevy camp isn't in the playoffs. Oh no. Kyle bus Kyle Busch is starting 11th. Speaker 3 00:12:14 Oh there you go. Yeah, right. He's a Chevy now. I keep on forgetting. Um, and Speaker 2 00:12:17 He missed it by not, not that, I mean he was pretty close and Speaker 3 00:12:22 So in the race here in May in the top 10, there were four Chevys at the top 10. Haley Bush, chase Elliot was third and William Byron first. First. So yeah. But I have a feeling because of this, a lot of people may be backing off the Chevys a little bit. So you could probably get some good value here in your GPP for these big tournaments. Speaker 2 00:12:47 I think you can 'cause I mean Byron started fourth and won it. Yeah. In Dom in, I wouldn't say dominating fashion, but he looked pretty good most of the day. Justin Haley moved up well in that race started 22nd, finished eighth, Kyle Busch moved up a handful of spots. Um, and last Speaker 3 00:13:07 Year, remember Eric Jones won this race. Yes. Eric Jones won this race in the Chevy. Speaker 2 00:13:11 Yeah. He won this race, this exact race a year ago. He was not in the playoffs. And that brings up an interesting point. So when we get to the playoffs, are you the kind of guy that focuses your d f s lineups on playoff getting, trying to get as many playoff drivers into your lineups as possible? Or are you just going for these guys giving me D F Ss upside, I don't care if they're in the playoffs. Speaker 3 00:13:38 I kind of take the playoffs out of it at this point when it gets to like the last race, the last couple, then you kind of kind of have to because the other car has kind of let them go. But we're at a point now where um, especially you wanna be contrarian in gpp, which is what I play. And to do that you go against the playoff drivers because the playoff drivers are gonna be the highest though Dr. Drivers in every lineup build. So I kind of like to go against it. It kind of worked for me last year. Like we just talked about Eric Jones won, right? What was it like four straight races or three straight races where the winner, where playoff driver won the actual race last year in the playoffs. So contrarian shows that it could win here. So I take playoff drivers out of it for these first four races in the playoffs. Speaker 2 00:14:21 I would agree. I would say that if you're torn between two guys and one of them's a playoff driver and one of them isn't, it depends on again, your, the way you want to build. If you think that, well the playoff guy is gonna have more incentive to race harder and finish higher and the, and you know, especially if it's a, uh, torn between two teammates, right? Like if you're torn between Byron and Chase Elliott, Speaker 3 00:14:49 You take the playout driver in that case, Speaker 2 00:14:51 You take the playoff driver. 'cause the team is going to put more resources behind the playoff driver. Now I will say it's a little confusing with Case because Speaker 3 00:15:00 <crosstalk> you could stack them though too and some interesting little mini stacks with teams because if Byron's up there and Elliot's up there too, Elliot's gonna try to stay out there to help Byron. Right. So, so you know, only one driver can win the race, but I've seen stacking teammates, especially ones who are not in the playoffs with the guy in the playoffs, in these, in this format and G P P can win too. Speaker 2 00:15:24 Yeah. I mean we saw that last week at Daytona, right? We saw there was a teammate who was, I don't remember who it was, but he was three laps down. Was it Denny? Um, Speaker 3 00:15:34 It was, Larsson was down, Larsson was down. Speaker 2 00:15:36 Larsson was down. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. And yeah, he was three laps down. He was Speaker 3 00:15:39 <laugh> the top dead like Yeah. Speaker 2 00:15:42 Pushing, pushing his teammate. Right? Yeah. So, um, the does now it gets a little tricky with Chase 'cause he's in the owner's playoffs 'cause the ninth court made, which is valuable to the team 'cause there's a lot of money behind. Yes. That, um, but yeah, I, I think it's, I think it's wise at this stage to take the playoffs out of it. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> because there's 16 guys. It's the first playoff race. Anything can happen, right? Like when you get down to the last three races, especially Martinsville, definitely Phoenix. It's good to try to get a couple, you know, stack some playoff guys. 'cause they, especially the dudes on the bubble 'cause they're gonna be racing pretty hard for stuff. But this week we can kind of pay no mind to that. So I guess turning a corner here, um, <affirmative>, how are you approaching position differential this week? Because <crosstalk> kind of a mix be a little weird with that. Speaker 3 00:16:52 Yeah, kind of a mix because of the, of the, the issue with the tires. Um, obviously a driver like Truex, a driver like Larson's, William Byron who's, you know, the fa two of the favorites to win the championship this year, um, can easily get up the field. So you kind of want to have them in play. But I'm kind of doing kind of a mix because a lot of these guys I like in the top five, um, can also give you dominated points. I wouldn't be surprised if Hamlin was a dominator this whole like, like, you know what I mean? Like, you gotta pay attention to these guys too. You can't just o only go pd, especially when you have a lot of high price guys with PD upside. So I really like Hamlin as, because I, you're right, Truex is gonna be the guy everyone's gonna put in their lineups. But what if I instead of Truex, go to Hamlin and just he dominates this race. I, I just, Speaker 2 00:17:39 I mean he's a three time winner here in the last 12 races Speaker 3 00:17:42 And no one's talking about it like they're gonna play Truex just because they're like, oh, the pd. But I don't know. So I'm gonna kind of go towards a little PD in there because you need it. But I think I'm kind of thinking, especially here, it could be a dominated race type of play here. Speaker 2 00:17:59 I would, I would agree there are 367 laps in this race. 'cause remember Darlington is 1.36, six miles per lap. It's a, it's an odd number. I know technically it's an even number, but whatever. Um, it is a, it is a lot of lapse in this race. So you can rack up some lapse led some fastest laps quite a bit. Now for those of you who love to get win equity in their D F Ss lineups, you love to have the winner. It's not always required to have the winner in a winning lineup. But in the last 12 races here, nobody has won. Starting outside the top 16. And in eight of those 12, nobody has won. Like eight of the 12 winners have started P nine or closer. So if you want win equity, you're looking at dudes who are starting in the top 10. It's also not a track that favors a lot of one-off winners. Right. There's not a lot of chaos that produces one-off winners here. Correct. William Byron was a new winner here in the spring, but I think we can all agree that he's fast enough to not be counted as a one-off guy. Speaker 3 00:19:07 He's the championship favorite at this point right now. <laugh>? Yeah. Speaker 2 00:19:09 He's won five races this year. He's won on short tracks, intermediates road courses. Speaker 3 00:19:14 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:19:15 Plate races. Um, Denny Hamlin has three wins here in that span. Kevin Harvick has a couple of wins. I like him too. Truex has a couple of wins. Eric Jones has a couple of wins that might be the, the like one-off that's not a one-off. Right. The one hit wonder that's actually a two hit <laugh> Speaker 3 00:19:33 Then, then he's not a one hit wonder man. He, he, he moved on, he graduated, Speaker 2 00:19:37 He won, he won twice here. Speaker 3 00:19:38 <laugh>. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:19:39 Um, so it's not like you're gonna go and get, you know, not a lot of young guys win here. This is a track that takes a veteran status basically to win. It's not like, it's not like the track knows who it is, but it's just like the way you have to race this track and manage your car and manage your teams throughout the race lends itself to more veteran guys. So if you're seeing, you know, oh, Christopher Bell's on the pole, maybe he's veteran enough to pull it off. He is got the pit crew to do it. He's got the, you know, the pit stall to do it. Mm-hmm. Speaker 3 00:20:18 <affirmative>. Speaker 2 00:20:19 But in terms of like, Ty Gibbs isn't gonna show up and magically win this race. Speaker 3 00:20:26 No, I would not. I I would be, I would be so surprised if that happened. Like I, yeah. The, yeah, I would wear the craziest outfit on the next podcast if that. Like I, I would go naked. Like it's not gonna happen. Yeah. <laugh> you don't wanna see that either anyways. So <laugh>, so, so pray for non Gibbs winning there everybody. But yeah. 'cause Christopher Bell right now is the what, eighth, uh, in odds to win, even though he is starting on the poll and you got Kyle Larsson true ex Hamlin, Byron Chastain and Bush ahead of him. So I kind of agree with you there. I don't, bell has a, he's in a great spot and he's gonna get some lapse land. He's gonna, you know, um, but I j I dunno, I, I just maybe fading him. I I just don't see him pulling this out as a, as a winner. Um, even from the, the poll spot and just what Vegas is telling me right now. I'm a, I'm a little scared of now even though he has, he has the new pit crew and the pit spot. What do you think? Speaker 2 00:21:29 Yeah, I mean the last, so Logano won from the pole here in May of 2022. Speaker 3 00:21:36 Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, Speaker 2 00:21:37 But if we remember he kinda had to run over <laugh>. Speaker 3 00:21:41 So, so a normal race for Logano. Um, Speaker 2 00:21:44 Okay. But yeah, he, you know, exactly. But outside of that you have to go all the way back to 2014 for Kevin Harvick to have won on the poll. So the poll set doesn't necessarily win here that often. So Speaker 3 00:21:57 Where would he have to stay to uh, just hold value? Like, because he's 9,400. So even, even DraftKings doesn't like him. I'm just trying to see it. 'cause I have a feeling a lot of people are gonna be off of, of him Speaker 2 00:22:12 For C ballot. Speaker 3 00:22:14 Yeah. Is there any way to get some sort of contrarian value to have him in your lineups? Speaker 2 00:22:18 So 9,400 for five x value, he'd have to, he'd have to nab what, 45.2 points. Mm-hmm. Speaker 3 00:22:28 <affirmative>. So, Speaker 2 00:22:30 So if he finishes, let's see, he's starting on the pole. That should give him what, 42? Speaker 3 00:22:37 Yes. So finish points, Speaker 2 00:22:39 45 finish points. Speaker 3 00:22:41 So he's basically, that's if he finishes first. Speaker 2 00:22:43 Yeah. If he finishes first Speaker 3 00:22:46 He makes value Speaker 2 00:22:47 And gets one lap lead. He hits value <laugh> Speaker 3 00:22:51 Jesus. Speaker 2 00:22:52 But for every spot, let's say he finishes third, well he is gonna lose four finish points plus two plus lose two and pd. So there's six points no value. So you're gonna need a handful of fastest laps and laps lead to make up for every spot he drops. So he is a G P P only play. 'cause there's no way he can finish better than where he's starting. And he's got some fast guys behind him Speaker 3 00:23:17 And he's gonna be really low owned. Like really low owned. Speaker 2 00:23:21 I would, I would presume he's a little lower than we normally see. Yeah. So at that point, do you have leverage on the play? 'cause if he shows up and does better than people think and you're over the, you're higher than the field on him, then it comes in handy. Correct. If you're higher than the field and he doesn't do what he, what you're hoping he does, then you get bit, Speaker 3 00:23:48 You know me, I'm gonna put in one one lineup with Bell in it. Now I have to just to see what happens. But yeah, the value is not there at all. He's gonna be low owned, but if he somehow starts first dominates this race, wins the race and, and he's 8% owned or to 10% owned, huge huge value for your G P P lineups right there. So Speaker 2 00:24:12 The most interesting guy I think above at the 10 K range on DK and highly priced on FanDuel might be Kyle Bus. Speaker 3 00:24:22 Yeah. Starts in 11th. So there is some some PD there. Right. Speaker 2 00:24:27 But the thing that concerns me is if he finishes fifth, he still has to get fastest laps and or lapse lead to get you. 'cause on DK you need 50 points to get five x. Correct. And an race like this, you need at least five x, he's starting 11th, which means in finish points, that's 32. Right. So if he finishes fifth, you're talking that's 40 finish points plus six for the pd that's 46, you're still four point shy of value. So that's not a ton of, that's like 10 fastest laps, which he could do if he's moving up six spots. Speaker 3 00:25:03 Yeah. Speaker 2 00:25:05 But it's one of those things where like you need an absolute, you need his practice speed to show up where you're ran about fifth or sixth best in the field and you need everything to go right. Mm-hmm. Speaker 3 00:25:15 <affirmative>. Speaker 2 00:25:17 And you need some guys to fall backwards. Speaker 3 00:25:19 Mm-hmm. Speaker 2 00:25:20 <affirmative> and you need 'em to get fastest laps or laps lap, which is all possible, but you're talking about a ceiling outcome versus Speaker 3 00:25:29 Correct. Speaker 2 00:25:29 A floor. Right. So that's, that's kind of where things get tricky with value and where we have to kind of be careful with, uh, who were, who we're playing. Now, is he, is there a chance that he is the lowest played dude between Denny Hamlin and C Bell in that price range? Yeah, probably. Speaker 3 00:25:53 Yeah. No, I think, well, okay, of the 10,000, everybody on their mom.com is gonna be playing Byron Larsson and Truex. That's gonna be their right. Their high paid guy. Hamlin and Kyle are literally the two just contrarian who can I get value from them to win some g p tournaments. Right? And then you have har at seven who will be kind of high owned, Chastain's gonna be really high owned and then Bell, right? So I think Bell Harvick, Bush and Hamlin go into play with, with what used to win. Nobody who started after 16th is it won this race. And how long, like, you gotta start looking at that Speaker 2 00:26:32 To Reagan Smith winning it in 2011 for anybody outside the top 16 to have won because he started 23rd. Speaker 3 00:26:45 So I think I'm gonna have some bell. I'm gonna have some Bush, I'm gonna have some Hamlin. I'm gonna, uh, I'm gonna have some harvick in my builds. Just go a little contrarian because that's what what history tells me. What everything tells me is I could see where the public's gonna go on their lineups and who they're gonna play. It's 'cause they, everyone loves pd, right? They love Yep. They automatically, they, they they love it. But this track doesn't love PD <laugh>. So not Speaker 2 00:27:11 A lot. No, Speaker 3 00:27:12 I'm playing the track here. I'm not playing. In Speaker 2 00:27:15 Fact, lemme lemme see. In the last five races, now granted some of those were 400 milers and some of 'em are 500 milers. But in general you're getting six and a half drivers who move up double digit spots a race, Speaker 3 00:27:30 It's nothing. Speaker 2 00:27:31 It's decent but not great. Out of a 36 car field you're talking about one sixth of them move up double digit spots. Speaker 3 00:27:38 Oh, double digit spots. Sorry, I missed that. I was like, wow, Speaker 2 00:27:41 <crosstalk>, 12 of them move up at least six spots a race. Speaker 3 00:27:44 Okay. Speaker 2 00:27:45 It was decent. Speaker 3 00:27:46 Decent. Yeah. Speaker 2 00:27:48 But when you're talking about top 10 finishers, less than half of the top 10 has started outside the top 12. Speaker 3 00:27:58 There you go. So, Speaker 2 00:28:01 So you can move up, but cracking the top 10 is kind of the glass ceiling, so to speak. Um, Speaker 3 00:28:07 Yeah, I think I'm gonna go very, very contrarian this week. Speaker 2 00:28:11 And in terms of lapse led dominators, 1.2 drivers race over the last five have led a hundred or more laps in a race. You get basically one guy a race that leads more than a hundred and you'll get two or so that lead 50 or more. Speaker 3 00:28:30 If you can find that guy who hits the hundred. Ooh. Ooh. That's what you need to do. Speaker 2 00:28:35 Yeah. And let me see if I can, Speaker 3 00:28:39 Uh, which bell man? I'm Bell could be a, I'm, I'm off at a bottom. You're by the way, Speaker 2 00:28:45 There's Truex on the pole who led 145 laps in the spring before he had an issue. Correct. Speaker 3 00:28:51 Okay. Speaker 2 00:28:51 Uh, it was, Speaker 3 00:28:53 And Byron won that raise right there. Speaker 2 00:28:55 See this is where it gets tricky. 'cause Kyle Busch led 155 laps that in the fall race last year, starting fifth before finishing 30th <laugh>. Um, Speaker 3 00:29:05 Oh, the fifth spot. Speaker 2 00:29:07 Joey Logano led 107 laps from the pole and won it when he <laugh> ran over people to get back to the lead Speaker 3 00:29:16 Again, that's normal race majority. Speaker 2 00:29:18 Right. And Speaker 3 00:29:19 <laugh> Speaker 2 00:29:20 The fourth race back, and I'll make this quick. We had Hamlin and Larsson both lead 140 plus laps. That's the only one where you've had 200 mm-hmm. <affirmative> lap. Uh, and the fifth race ago you had true, actually 248 of 293 laps starting fourth. So he just annihilated people. And if you didn't have 'em, there's no shot. You were gonna win. But Speaker 3 00:29:46 There you go. Dominator, dominator, dominator. Find a dominator, win win your, your gp. PS it's that easy. Speaker 2 00:29:53 Yep. Sort of <laugh>. Uh, for more details, uh, you know, read this week's playbook, it'll be out Saturday evening. Um, we'll have projections, everything else out. But other than that, enjoy the Coke, the cookout, Southern 500 and uh, good luck.

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