Cook Out 400 Richmond NASCAR DFS Preview

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR D f S podcast brought to you through the Better Sports Network. I'm Dan Malin and I am joined by the f ss w a three time NASCAR writer of the year. Matt Sells Matt, we are at Richmond for the second time, uh, in the 2023 season. It's kind of crazy 'cause it feels like we were just here despite it being back in April. Uh, but, uh, what should we expect this weekend? The playoffs are getting closer. So it's, it's kind of, we're getting down to the wire for some of these drivers to really get a win and lock themselves in the playoffs. Speaker 3 00:00:55 Yeah, we've got, uh, five races including Sunday's cookout, 400 before the playoffs start. And there are five open slots in the playoffs. 'cause only 11 guys have wins this year. So should we see, I mean, I'm betting you at this point we're gonna see at least three drivers point their way into the playoffs. I don't think we get a different driver winning each of the next five races. I don't see that happening. Um, could I see a couple guys? Sure. Um, but I don't think, I don't think everything's being locked up by guys winning their way into the playoffs this year. So coming off of a testy Pocono race and now we get short track racing and it's like 120 degrees in the cars this weekend. Things are gonna be fun on the track. I do find it. What what was your thought on a, the Denny Hamlin Kyle Larsson thing and B, the fact that NASCAR did not talk to those two, but they talked to Priest and Lejo and Reddick and Dylan, but they didn't talk to Larson and Hamlin Well, Speaker 2 00:01:59 Did what? Did they not speak to Larsson and Hamlin? 'cause Larsson and Hamlin didn't really have like an altercation off the track. Like Austin Dillon threw his helmet at Reddick, the priest was trying to pull, well, you can make the argument. I Speaker 3 00:02:13 Don't know what he was trying to do to hold your way. Speaker 2 00:02:15 <laugh>. Yeah, it wa moves like that really sour me on Ryan Priest. I understand you got dumped and everything, but he's, he has such a short views that I, I really don't know if he's gonna last long in the series with an attitude like that. Uh, so I understand why NASCAR spoke with Priest and Lejo. Um, I don't know. I I know Larsson and Ham and Hamlin handled it a little more professionally. I I think there was a lot of behind the scenes discussions that they may have had, um, Hamlin on his podcast. Well, Kyle Larsson initially said that he didn't think that, uh, you know, Hamlin was, was racing him like they were friends. Uh, right, because I mean, they are friends and Hamlin said on his podcast that he actually races his friends harder. I think where I disagree with Denny, sorry for the noise outside my apartment, uh, where I would disagree with Denny is that I, I he says he didn't make contact with Larsson. Speaker 3 00:03:10 He did. Speaker 2 00:03:11 He did. He did. Speaker 3 00:03:12 He clearly did. It's not even, he's so Speaker 2 00:03:15 A window to, you know, squeeze the car in. But in doing so, he does force Larsson up the track, uh, with contact, in my opinion. And so I I wasn't a big fan of the move. Um, I understand why he was booed heavily after the race and I mean, I mean, it is what it is. Like, it, it, it just seems like, you know, we can't get a Denny Hamlin like clean win. Speaker 3 00:03:38 My issue with Denny is that if the tables were reversed, Speaker 2 00:03:42 He would be Speaker 3 00:03:43 Complaining if you go into Twitter to use ss p data to prove that he was wrecked and wronged and Larsson should be suspended and they should take the win away from Larsson and give it to him because he was wronged. Yet when he does it to somebody else, he can't stand up and cope with the fact that he made contact. Whether you like the move or not. And I'm undecided, do I wanna see guys race hard for wins? Yes. Um, I think Kyle Petty's comments were mostly on the nose except for the fact that he seemed to dinging him at the end for not being original. 'cause he used the same move last year on Chastain. But again, Chastain barely touched him last year and Denny spent the entirety of the gateway race making Chastain's life a living hell. Yeah, but Hamlin turns around and does it and it's not a problem. That's my only, that's my only complaint. If you're gonna raise people that way, be able to take it. Denny's, the, the kid that could dish it out but could never take it. That's Denny Hamlin. Speaker 2 00:04:45 So part of me, part of me thinks like Denny Hamlin is doing this, this Joey Logano esque kind of turn where you know who he is in the car is a completely different person than, than what we see in the media because he also uses this platform and, and his podcast where, you know, he seems like a really nice guy and Denny Hamlin does have some like really good ideas in terms of like how they should, you know, push NASCAR into the future and everything. I think it's great that he's an owner, but at the same time, like he uses his platform just to, you know, come off as like a regular normal guy. And whereas, you know, Logano iss kinda the same way. He's, he's one of the nicest guys in interviews, but you hear from plenty of drivers on the track that he's probably one of the biggest a-holes out there as well. Right? Speaker 3 00:05:25 But to give credit to Joey Logano, which I don't do very often, Joey Logano owns it. He says, hell yeah in an interview on SiriusXM NASCAR radio. He said, hell yeah, I'm two-faced, I'm a nice dude in the car and when the helmet goes on, totally fine. If he admits it, I flip a switch and I'm the meanest dude on the planet and I don't care who's in my way. He owns it. Denny on the other hand, wants to go who we're all friends. I dunno what he's talking about. I didn't make any mistakes and just wants to keep the nice guy attitude going. Well, pulling Dale Sr. Moves like at least Dale SSR owned it, right? Yeah. At least Kyle Busch owns it, owns it. He goes, if you don't like racing like that, don't watch. Then he goes, I didn't make any contact. They wrecked themselves. No, they didn't Check the check the right side of your car, man. There's Kyle, there's some paint scuffs on it. See it on NBC's replay. It wasn't that hard to, to see. Speaker 2 00:06:21 All right, well we are at Richmond Raceway this weekend. It is a home track for Denny Hamlin. Uh, it's a track that the Toyotas and Joe Gibbs racing specifically have done very well at. We, it's a short, flat track, high tire wear. Uh, I heard on a podcast, I can't remember which one, I apologize. I listened to like five or six NASCAR podcasts this week. Uh, I heard an argument that this has arguably higher tire wear than Darlington, which kind of blew my mind. Um, but this is a short, flat track. Uh, what should we expect this weekend? Speaker 3 00:06:53 I would, I would say that that argument makes some sense to me. A the, the temps here are gonna be hot. It's like 90 something degrees there, uh, for practice and qualifying. Today we're recording this about, uh, three 30 eastern time on Saturday. Uh, it's not gonna be that much cooler on Sunday. So the hot temps on the track certainly add to the tire wear. It is a very worn out track. Uh, the reason why I would agree that it's, that it's arguably more is because it's a shorter track. So there's no chance for the heat to dissipate. Like at Darlington, you could kind of ease it off throttle a little bit in the, in the corners, right? And let the momentum of the corner carry you through and not add heat to the tires. Richmond, it, there's no break man. It's a three quarter mile flat track. You're on throttle. I mean not, it doesn't sound like all that much, but if you're turning and then it's straight. And then also keep in mind it's a tri oval. Yeah, it's not an oval like, you know, Bristol or Martinsville or New Hampshire. It's a prior, the, the Speaker 2 00:08:09 Front stretch is essentially like a wide bend, Speaker 3 00:08:11 Right? So the, if you look at it, it looks like a shrunk down deep Kansas or you know, Vegas just flatter and shorter. So I I I I get the argument that it might be more tire wear than Darlington. It's certainly more than any other short track. So that's gonna play a role. Uh, I would expect it to be slick. Uh, which should be fun 'cause somebody's gonna mess up and go up the track and that's gonna be all sorts of fun. Uh, pit strategy is gonna be key. Passing is gonna be hard. People let's not get turned off because it's tough to pass it's short track. They're all hard to pass. It should Speaker 2 00:08:51 Be hard to pass too. Speaker 3 00:08:53 Like it's motorsports. It shouldn't just be like, oh here you go, here's the first place and I'll hand it back to you. No, it should be tough to pass. So, um, doesn't mean it's impossible though. There are some interesting strategies here for D f s. Speaker 2 00:09:08 One thing I always hated about Richmond, uh, especially for D F s was that I would always get in my own way when I would build lineups because you know, we love, we love targeting pd. We love getting those guys that can move up and, and those value plays that you know, start outside the top 30 that you hope maybe can finish top 25 or top 20. Uh, but one thing that for the longest time I would always forget would be that Richmond is a track where the guys that start at the rear, if they don't have speed, they can easily lose a lap. Um, and in the second and third stages that becomes losing a second lap. It becomes losing a third lap. Um, and if you're not getting an abundance of cautions to get back on the lead lap, you could be in trouble. Speaker 2 00:09:51 And so when I build out 20 lineups, I do reserve a handful of lineups to maybe just play guys that start inside the top 25, maybe the top 28, you know, you don't necessarily need to back load it with drivers starting at the top, uh, outside the top 30. Now that's to say like you could have value plays that maybe start P 35 and a guy that maybe finishes 24th but he's still gonna be multiple laps down. This is one of those races where drivers will lose the lead lap and then it just becomes difficult for them to really increase their ceiling if they can't get back on the lead lap, Speaker 3 00:10:25 Right? That's always the danger of the short track is going a lap down isn't the worst thing. 'cause there's gonna be a lot of people that go a lap down on a short track, right? A few years ago I think we saw nine people finish on the lead lap here at Richmond 'cause Truex was just lapping people left and right that day the problem becomes for D F Ss that caps their ceiling. Yep. Because let's say there's 15 guys on the lead lap and you're in 16th and you're a lap down passing the 15th driver doesn't get you anything. You're still scored 16th 'cause you're still a lap behind them. You have to go pass 15 guys to get on the lead lap and then you have to pass everybody again to get back to 15th to get the one spot that you've now passed 40 cars to go get. Speaker 3 00:11:08 So that's a little bit of the concern here. Uh, in the playbook I do break down a fairly interesting stat regarding D F S scoring and you know, thinking that ooh, there's a lot of PD upside in the back of this field this week. Which it looks like there is based on some wackadoodle practice times and the way that they keep separating people in group A and group B. So we can't tell who's actually fast and then people screwed up qualifying 'cause the track changed in the last five races at Richmond. People starting P 20 or worse, there are only five drivers who started P 20 or worse who rank in the top 20 of D F SS scoring averages in that time. There's only five starting spots in the back half of the field that score in the top half of D F Ss. Speaker 3 00:12:02 So that tells you you gotta pick and choose your spots in the back half of the field. It's not just a free for all. Oh these guys can move up. That's not always the case here. In fact, it's very tough to move up here. Um, doesn't guarantee you that if you play all top 10 guys they're gonna finish there either, right? Because about half of the top 10 at the end of the race started outside the top 12. So you can move up but it's a lot of pitch strategy and it's picking the drivers properly. Not just assuming, oh this guy's starting 25th, he can move up. Well not if he gets jammed at the start of the race, it's gonna be a serious problem. Speaker 2 00:12:43 Uh, how many laps do we have for this race? Is it 400 Speaker 3 00:12:46 400 laps? Which is 300 miles around Richard? Speaker 2 00:12:49 Uh, safe to say with probably, if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably gonna be around 260 dominator points. But safe to say that's gonna be a two, maybe even a three dominator build for this race. Speaker 3 00:12:59 Uh, yeah, generally. So if, so on average over the last 10 Richmond races there have been 35 caution lapse a race in that span. So if you take that off the 400, that's about 365 laps that we can say are green flag dominators, which puts at about 250 dominator points. Um, if there are very few caution laps we get more. 'cause obviously, you know, you'll still get laps led under caution but fastest laps go away 'cause everybody's going the same speed, right? So if there are less cautions, you have more dominator points. In terms of fastest laps, um, I would say probably a two dominator race is generally how it's shaken out. Over the last five races we've seen one and a half drivers race lead a hundred or more laps. Uh, we've seen about three to four drivers race crack, the 50 lap barrier. So you know, there's, there's enough to get two dominators. I don't see this being a three dominator one, I certainly don't see it where nobody's cracking a hundred laps. I don't think that's gonna be the case. Um, but we do have some interesting guys starting up towards the front, um, which is important this Speaker 2 00:14:17 Week. I I think before we dive into them, my next question was gonna be because there have been a lot of critiques and complaints about the short track package the last time we saw, uh, did they run, they were in the short track package at New Hampshire, right? Yes. Because it's a flat track. Um, we did see Martin Turex Jr. Essentially run up front the entire race, but the passing was actually decent. Yes. And New Hampshire wasn't terrible. Do you think that we could see that kind of momentum carry over with Richmond or do you think that? Speaker 3 00:14:43 I think so. I mean I think if we look back in the April race, it was a pretty good race by Richmond standards. There was more passing in that race than we've seen previously. There's reports that they're, you know, still tinkering with, you know, the splitter and, and some some different stuff to improve it. Um, but sometimes you just get a guy who has the right setup for the right day and it works that it's always gonna be the case in racing no matter if you give, um, you know we've seen series where they give everybody the exact same car and somebody just goes out and dominates 'cause Jess happens that day. Right. Um, that being said, I still think that the lead here are coming from the front of the pack. Right. I don't think it's gonna be pretty hard to find somebody outside the top 10 that's gonna lead a big chunk of laps. Speaker 2 00:15:36 Now in terms of those precious lapse lead and those dominated points, who are some drivers that you're looking at for some days' race to run up front and maybe get us, if I had to guess, I don't know, 30, 40 dominator points. Speaker 3 00:15:49 So here's where it gets interesting. Tyler Reddick is on the pole. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, Tyler Reddick didn't run all that well in practice. Tyler Reddick has never let a lap at a short track in the Cup series. Is he going to break that streak <laugh> on Sunday or is he gonna lead like one lap and then get overtaken? 'cause the guy on the outside of him is Kyle Busch who, which is kind of fitting that those two are meeting up here. 'cause obviously they swapped the, you know, in a roundabout way got swapped for each other. Yeah. Um, Speaker 2 00:16:24 <laugh>, Speaker 3 00:16:26 I don't know. Kyle Bush leads a bunch of laps either because he started pretty well here in April and dropped back 'cause the R C R car he's still getting used to here. So it's hard not to go with William Byron who went basically every category in practice now. Speaker 2 00:16:43 He was in the faster session. Speaker 3 00:16:45 He was in the faster session. Um, so do we, do we fully count it? I would say that over the long the, the course of the long run, if you look at long run speed, which he tops basically every category that it would probably even out and he's still pretty quick. Mm-hmm. Plus this William Byron and he's been fast in basically everything this year. <laugh>. Um, so I would say William Byron is a threat to lead quite a bit of lapse here. Um, if we're looking for some interesting guys, chase Elliot. Speaker 2 00:17:18 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:17:19 Could be a guy who's got himself a pretty good starting spot here. Um, he's, Speaker 2 00:17:25 Do you think he needs a win to get in the playoffs? Speaker 3 00:17:27 I think at this point, I don't know if top tens are gonna continually do Speaker 2 00:17:31 It. I thought that there was a chance that he could still point his way in. But now it's to the point where I do, I'm on that I've hopped the fence and I'm on the side that I think he, he just needs to get a win. There's still, there's still road courses where it could happen. Speaker 3 00:17:42 There's two road courses and there's Daytona. Speaker 2 00:17:45 Yeah. Speaker 3 00:17:45 So there are shots. Plus if you chase Elliot you could theoretically win anywhere you show up to. He's that kind of driver. He does have top 10, top tens and 17 races this year. So you know, he's been consistent but I do think he needs to win. Um, so I think it's, I think it comes down to the 200 guys leading a bunch of laps. I do think that Denny Hammond's gonna be a contender later in the race, um, to lead laps. Speaker 2 00:18:15 You don't think he can get up there early? I mean he's starting third, Speaker 3 00:18:17 I mean he's starting third. I think the problem is that his short run speed at practice was so bad. Okay. He's gonna drop back a little bit and then the longer it runs green, his car got way better. Um, so, or who knows, maybe he just punched Kyle Bus outta the way. He's not gonna punt Tyler Reddick 'cause that's his own car. So he is not gonna punt Tyler Reddick but maybe he punts Kyle Bus outta the way and goes I didn't make contact and then leads a bunch of laps and, and then gets booted his own home track with the uh, all those 11 fans that are in attending Speaker 2 00:18:52 <laugh>. Um, I Speaker 3 00:18:54 Did, I did like that tweet. That was funny. Speaker 2 00:18:56 Uh, alright, so what happened with Christopher Bell? First and foremost, I mean this is a track where I was, I was prepared to play a lot of bell. Uh, he starts P 29. I missed his practice session. I'm mis qualifying so I didn't really have eyes on what happened but you know, he's 10,000. He Speaker 3 00:19:11 Just off, Speaker 2 00:19:12 What's that? Speaker 3 00:19:13 He was just off. It was just a bad setup. Um, I, I too was shocked. Right. So I'm doing, I write the betting pieces for Pix Wise before, sorry for the herd of elephants running through the house. Apparently my kids have friends over and they have zero regard for what I'm doing. Um, so you know, writing the betting pieces, I was all over Bell for a shot to win. Uh, and for top five finish. 'cause he's got five straight top six finishes here. This is arguably his second best track behind New Hampshire. He also, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, has three Xfinity series wins. Speaker 2 00:19:52 Who's Speaker 3 00:19:52 That? Uh, bell has three Xfinity series wins at Richmond. I believe he Speaker 2 00:19:57 Might, I'm struggling to get driver averages open right now, but yeah, Speaker 3 00:20:00 I think it's been down all day. It sounds Speaker 2 00:20:01 Right. Okay. Speaker 3 00:20:02 No, it, I saw it tweet about it. I think it crashed earlier today. Okay. Um, I think it's just, I think they tried something with the setup maybe as a playoff thing because there's a couple of shorter flatter tracks in the playoffs. A k a Phoenix which compares well to Richmond. And so maybe it's a test set up and it didn't work. I'm still prepared to play him 'cause he's been far too good at this track to just say, oh he's turning 29, didn't look great. He is not gonna move up. I think he's got the ability, the car and the team to move up. So I'm, I'm still on him. But it was definitely a rougher practice than we expected. Speaker 2 00:20:43 Um, one driver that we were talking about before and I think you and I might just be on opposite ends of the spectrum here. Uh, Ryan Blaney is $9,000 starts P 25. He's only had I guess one good D F Ss performance if we're talking about being a good play at Richmond. It was the one year that he was on the pole and he led I think like 70 to 90 laps or something like that. Um, starts P 25. And I'm not crazy about Penske this weekend, but you seem optimistic that he can go out and be a fantasy gem. Speaker 3 00:21:15 So lemme preface this with this. I'm not expecting Blaney to go out and win right? But we don't need him to win. Right? We need a solid showing from him to hit value. Is he capable of that? Sure. If we look at the 15 similar races over the last two years in the Gen seven Carter and for similar races, we're looking at Richmond, we're looking at Martinsville, we're looking at Phoenix, Nashville, little bit of gateway and a little bit of New Hampshire in there. Okay. If you look at those 15 races, Ryan Blaney's got 11 top 10 finishes and seven top five finishes. Granted not a single win, but I don't need him to win for D F Ss am I betting him to win? Yeah. 'cause the odds were way too low for a guy who's been in contention that much. So if he pulls off a top 10 starting where he is starting, we're golden. Speaker 3 00:22:11 We're good. And I think people are gonna overlook him because he stated in the past he doesn't like Richmond. The last two races of Richmond haven't been great for him. Uh, meanwhile Logano, his teammate has been pretty good at Richmond. He's Penske And so I'm banking on the fact that he can share some notes with Logano and that his results at similar tracks show up and give us a decent day. Again, that's all we need from him. We don't need dominator points, we don't need win equity, we just need a top 10 finish, which he's pulled off 11 of 15 times, which is tied for the most of any driver in the field in that span. You're muted. Speaker 2 00:22:58 Sorry about that. Uh, starting right next to Ryan Blaney, uh, at 7,700 is Chris Buscher. He is P 26. Uh, you did mention before we started recording that you had to pivot off Klowski for Buscher. I get it. It's a PD play. Um, and Speaker 3 00:23:12 Also a little bit of cross savings. Speaker 2 00:23:14 Yeah. Like he saves you 900 bucks off his teammate. Um, but overall like um, I struggled to shake the stigma of the Fords. I know they've gotten better but there's, it's really hard to deny how consistent like Chris Buscher has been. I'm just scrolling through his DraftKings like finishes and he just has like plenty of like consistently in the top 20 for what feels like the last three months, uh, with some top fifteens baked in there. And I feel like he should have no issue paying off this price tag as long as he can just, you know, consistently move up through the field throughout the race and not lose a lab. Speaker 3 00:23:50 Yeah, I mean he's gonna be popular. He's cheaper than his teammate. He had a better practice session than his teammate. He's starting further back than his teammate and he's been arguably more consistent though 'cause Lasky has turned it on of late in the shorter flatter tracks. That being said, Klowski is a perfectly fine play. Either of the R f K guys are perfectly fine The last time Klowski finished outside the top 15, you have to go back to 2014 at Richmond. Like I'm talking specifically at Richmond. Right, right, right outside the top 15 at Richmond. He's done it every race twice a year since 2015. That's pretty impressive. 'cause he is been on granted both with Ford's but two different teams. Right. So him starting where he is, I just don't see quite as much value upside in him this week unless he shocks everybody and moves up like seven spots. Right. Speaker 2 00:24:47 Yeah, I mean it and it could happen because I mean he got a top five at New Hampshire a few weeks ago. Yeah. I think he was 10th in this race in the spring. Um, but I think he also offered, Speaker 3 00:24:58 He Speaker 2 00:24:59 Had more PD Speaker 3 00:24:59 He started, so he started 24th and finished 10th. Yeah. Right. And his teammate, um, Buscher, let's see where he, Speaker 2 00:25:10 He started seventh and finished 30th 42 lap fastest laps. Speaker 3 00:25:14 Right? He had the, he had the issue early in the race and then was just off pit cycle. So he always had fresh tires. Speaker 2 00:25:21 Yeah. <laugh> that's awesome. Just Speaker 3 00:25:22 Smoking people to the field. That's why he went and still wound up with 42 fastest laps. That's Speaker 2 00:25:28 Awesome. Speaker 3 00:25:29 So you know, but that gives credence to, to Busher who's now starting basically where Ke did in April and has a shot at the top 10. Right. Um, I just wish KZ would've qualified a few spots further back. Speaker 2 00:25:46 I hear you. Speaker 3 00:25:47 But that's not Speaker 2 00:25:48 <crosstalk>. I feel like that's, I say that about Brad Klowski almost every week and I'm like, I wish he started like two rows. Speaker 3 00:25:52 Not to say we don't have leverage though, right? Because people are all gonna be thinking the same thing. Man, if he had started like 17th and then he pulls off a top 10, then I get a little bit more pd, I have a little bit more upside. But on the flip side, now you gotta leverage 'cause if he still finishes top 10, there's still a little bit of value to be had. Speaker 2 00:26:11 Uh, dipping down into the value range for some uh, some very interesting plays. Daniel Su is not a really a heavy value 'cause he is more expensive than Chris Bocher, but he starts P 33 at 7,800. Uh, scrolling down, we do have some SS h r drivers in Eric Elmar and Chase Briscoe starting P 24 and P 20 respectively. And then we get AJ Alman Ger who is only starting P 36 because he wasn't, uh, in Richmond for practicing qualifying today. So because of the driver change it'll start at the rear. Yeah. His teammate is starting P 28. Who are, I guess, you know, just a summation like who are the value plays that you think can move up maybe 10 to 15 spots and, and you know, so Speaker 3 00:26:49 This is where it gets wild, right? And this is where practice really screws us up because the a, the group A times were so much faster than the group B times that if you were in group A you get credit for being higher in your averages and single lap speeds than if you were in group B and then you go out and you qualify and you suck. Like JJ y I'm pretty sure was in group A, right? He's credited with running the 12th best five lap average and the 13th best overall lap time and yet he's starting 35th. Do I really think JJ Ley is a top 15 car? No, I don't think so. But the, you know, the practice time, somebody's gonna bite on it. And so this week when you see the practice to qualifying table in the playbook, don't go ham for everybody who's starting 30th and is gonna move up 22 spots. It's just the way the practice times worked and there's not really anything I can do about it. So to answer your question, I think Corey Lejo is a guy that's gonna be very popular. Um, now popularity and me playing him are two different things. I'm a little leery of Corey Lejo this week. I did put him with an add-on below Todd Gilland. But here's the thing with Corey Lejo, he's starting 31st. Speaker 2 00:28:09 Yep. Speaker 3 00:28:10 He ran theoretically top 10 practice times, right? So it looks like great. And he's having a career year and he is the only guy who hasn't not finished a race. Um, but at his value, we still need him to finish P 23 or better to hit five x. His average finish over eight Richmond races is 26 in similar races. The last 15 similar races, it's also 26. Do I really see him nabbing a top 20? I don't know. But we kind of need him to do it to hit value. Um, I think Todd Gilman still has sneaky, I Speaker 2 00:28:49 I love Todd Gilman. Speaker 3 00:28:51 I do. Now I Speaker 2 00:28:52 Didn't wanna say it like out loud, like super common 'cause he starts P 16 and I'm like, well that's kind of like a blessing and a curse. Speaker 3 00:28:58 But he finished P 15 here in the spring and he ran 15th at like New Hampshire and Gate. And like he had issues at Gateway, but he, he ran pretty well at the shorter flat attack. 'cause Speaker 2 00:29:09 Other drivers, like drivers starting there will be plenty of drivers that fall off the lead lap. And as long as he can just stay on the lead lap, he, he's not gonna be one of those guys that's gonna necessarily move up. But pretty much like, you kind of just hope that he can just start where he is at run there all day and he finishes. Speaker 3 00:29:23 There's, we're good. Speaker 2 00:29:25 Yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. All right. I thought I would maybe be on an island, but, uh, we're running outta time. So are there any final thoughts on, uh, either drivers or strategies for Sunday's race? Speaker 3 00:29:36 Uh, well we're looking for, you know, I break down a whole bunch of strategies by site in the playbook. Obviously a bunch of drivers. I'm changing some out from what I wrote last night during an insomnia attack. Uh, 'cause some guys didn't do what I expected. But Playbook will be out, podcast projections, we'll have core plays. It'll be good. Uh, Richmond should be a pretty fun race on Sunday. Speaker 2 00:29:59 Awesome. Well, Matt, thank you so much for your time. Best of luck to you on Sunday at Richmond and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:30:05 Best of luck, FA Nation.