Episode Transcript
Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine.
Speaker 2 00:00:23 What's going on? FA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS broadcast brought to you our stream through rather, uh, the Better Sports Network app. I am Dan Mail and you can follow me on Twitter at real Dan Lanta. And I'm joined by Matt Sells. He is at The Sales Man on Twitter. Matt, we are coming back from a week off. Uh, how was your time off? Uh, I know you have a pretty loaded plate, much more than me, uh, but how was Father's Day for you?
Speaker 3 00:00:49 It was, uh, it was good. Actually. Took my kids to a science museum, really enjoyed it. Um, actually didn't watch any of the US Open, which I usually try to sneak in some on Father's Day, but I didn't watch any of it. I also didn't watch the F1 race on Father's Day either. It's kind of a weird like off week I just kind of detached from everything. Kind of focused on my other side of my job, the tax side and and whatnot for that. So mine was good. How was your off week?
Speaker 2 00:01:19 Uh, it was great. Um, you know, there, there are some years where when we get to that one week off and I'm just like craving a race, I didn't really have that last week and I was actually, I was really invested in the US Open. Uh, I was really into it. I watched a lot of the coverage each day. I watched a little bit of the F1 race, but F1 has just gotten to a point where Red Bull are just so much better than the field that I can't get excited about it. They've won every single race this year. I'm 99% sure that's true. I think for staffing's won like six or seven. I think Perez has won two. Yep.
Speaker 3 00:01:53 Perez two and uh, verse happens. Still very pissed about it. <laugh>,
Speaker 2 00:01:57 <laugh>, I mean it's just, it's it's hardly any fun and I can't even get into it for, for dfs. Um, even last year it was a struggle for me to get into it from the daily fantasy perspective. So, you know, I watched it, I tuned in, um, if it's ever on early in the morning. Cause I know they have a lot of, uh, races in the eastern hemisphere or hemisphere on the globe, so I tune in the morning. But like it's, it's, it's just not fun when for staffing wins every race.
Speaker 3 00:02:23 Yeah. At least the coverage is nice cuz like for the Spain gp, they didn't show him at all anyone by 24 seconds, but they showed everybody else. Um, qualifying was bonkers for the Canadian gp. But anyway, let's turn our attention to uh, Nashville. Cause we get Nash Vegas this week. Um, fun track. I'm still not sure what to make of it to be honest. After two years. I'm still not sure what to make of it.
Speaker 2 00:02:51 I think it's in general a tough track that's pretty difficult to pass at.
Speaker 3 00:02:56 Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:02:58 Um, just from what I've seen, I mean even in the truck race tonight, it's, you know, if you get long stretched out green flag runs, it can be a little bit difficult to pass. Uh, drivers across all three series have pretty much commented that it's difficult to pass. Um, but you know, it's, it's, it's nice because it's a track where we do have a lot of data to pull from. Not necessarily as far as track history goes here cuz this is only the third race for the Cup series and only the second and the next gen car. But you know, we can look at other mile and a half tris we can consider Dover because that's a concrete track as well. Um, you even mentioned New Hampshire before the podcast so it's like, you know, we can, we know who should be good here and based on practice it looks like it's gonna be the usual suspects with the Toyotas and, and Hendrick possibly contending here.
Speaker 3 00:03:42 Yeah, we are recording this on uh, Friday e fairly late Friday night. Uh, it's like 10 after 11 eastern right now. Uh, we decided to do it after practice cuz we did get a split practice and qualifying for the Cup series this week. So practice was Friday evening at like six 30 Eastern. Um, qualifying is gonna be like one eastern Saturday afternoon and then the race isn't until seven eastern on on Sunday night. So we're doing this after practice. We don't know where they're qualified yet. Um, if you're listening to this on Saturday or Sunday following qualifying, um, we don't know where they're qualified yet, but we decided to do it tonight because the track conditions for practice were way more similar to what we're gonna see for the race in terms of temperature, in terms of time of day, in terms of sun angle, in terms of just generally everything like the, the rubber on the track is basically gonna be about what it is now and the one o'clock Eastern Saturday in Nashville in summer temps aren't gonna do anything great for qualifying.
Speaker 3 00:04:55 So I, I'm not gonna say we're gonna ignore qualifying cuz obviously guys are qualifying on the poll and it's tough to pass here. We have to pay attention to that. But it doesn't matter to me quite as much this week given the the differing because if your car is set up for qualifying right to go n hole at a track where it's hard to pass, but then it's let's say 15 degrees cooler when you actually race the following day, you're set up isn't gonna work as well. And so you could see some guys dropping back in the pack. We do, we tend to see this with night races. Is it that the field tends to kind of zigzag a little bit? Yo-yo if you will, um, because the guys who weren't set up well tend to drop back a little early until they catch up with the track.
Speaker 2 00:05:51 Now this is, this is a unique track in itself. You know, it's, it's gonna be the intermediate package. Um, and so you know, like we we've said that it's a travel one and one third mile, uh, very unique uh, it's gonna be 400 miles. So obviously we're gonna have plenty of laps led to consider. Um, is this gonna be, would you be willing to look at three dominators for this race? Are you looking at more so two dominators and then trying to find PD at a track where it could be pretty difficult to pass?
Speaker 3 00:06:23 Yeah, I think I'm looking more at two dominators to, to be honest. Um, if we go back to last year's race, we saw Chase Elliot win it, uh, starting fourth. We did see some guys move up, right? Austin Sind started 24th finish seventh. We saw Kurt Busch start 19th and move to second. But there was strategy involved in that. Um, but in terms of labs led, if we, if we sort it from most to least, we've got Denny Hamlin at 114, true exit 82. Kyle Bush at 54 and Chase Elliot at 42. So you got three guys over 50, that's not bad. But to really get chunks, you still only got two guys even with some guys you know like correct 30 10th, late 82 laps and finished 20 seconds. So it wasn't a great end of the day. Denny Hamlin was on the pole about 114 laps finished sixth. So I would go for two dominators for most of my builds. If you want to get a little different, you could go for three in my opinion. But I think we're banking mostly on two guys.
Speaker 2 00:07:32 Cool, cool. Um, the big elephant in the room is going to be the forwards they looked awful in practice and as you were just saying for the practice sessions, you know, the practice session's gonna translate more more to the race than qualifying. Um, and if we're looking at the practice results, we're not seeing too many Fords running up front. Now Chris Butcher, uh, and Michael McDowell have been two Fords that have kind have certainly exceeded expectations this year. RFK racing in general is actually coming around. Um, Brad Klowski and Buscher were both top 10 in uh, 10 lap average. Um, but it's still surprising that teams like Stewart Haass Racing who did announce Josh Berry will be in the number four this week. Good for him. He absolutely deserves it. He'll be in it next year. Sorry. Um, and even Team Penske, are we ex gonna expect these teams to struggle again on Sunday night? Because a couple weeks ago for Charlotte, you know, in the cooler conditions, Penske and the Fords did look like they could contend, but are we really gonna see drastically cool conditions that will help their arrow or is this gonna be a race where they struggle all night?
Speaker 3 00:08:47 I don't think it's gonna be drastically cool. Cause you also have to keep in mind that race in Charlotte had weather come through, right? They didn't run it Sunday, they postponed it to Monday cuz it was rainy and cold and chilly and whatever. Um, that's, we don't have that in the forecast. Uh, this weekend I, I would not build lineups banking on Ford showing up simply cuz it's a night race at an intermediate track. And they did so at Charlotte would I sprinkle in guys? Yeah, I don't think we can completely abandon the Fords. Uh, Ryan Blaney and 20 lap average looked pretty good at practice. Um, he was the only Ford in the top seven. There was three Toyotas, three Chevys. He was the only Ford in the top seven. If you go a couple more cars down to the top nine in 10 lap average, um, you've got Chris Buscher pops in there. Denny Hamlin makes it in the top 10 for Toyota. So, and then Kevin Harvick was like 11. So again, are we gonna wanna see these guys start a little bit further back and then hope that they can bind some long run speed and make some passes and let the track come to 'em? Yeah, but on the other side, if you see Ryan Blaney go out and qualify seventh and people are poo-pooing him because he is in a Ford in an intermediate track, we'll take the leverage.
Speaker 2 00:10:13 Okay.
Speaker 3 00:10:14 Like I don't think we can completely mark them off. Yes, they have struggled, but I'm still only looking at like the top, I only mentioned the top three or four, four drivers, right? We're not, we're not digging into um, you know, a Michael McDowell or priest or
Speaker 2 00:10:34 Priest is interesting because he won the previous two truck series races at Nashville.
Speaker 3 00:10:39 I mean he is, but that 41 car has been like, eh,
Speaker 2 00:10:46 I mean I'm treating it
Speaker 3 00:10:48 Other than a short track. He's been eh,
Speaker 2 00:10:52 Yeah, I mean he's like not great. You know, he was 13th at Sonoma, 13th at Charlotte, uh, 17th at Gateway. But I mean he's also starting outside the top 20 and he's still managing to pilot the car inside the top 20.
Speaker 3 00:11:04 Yeah,
Speaker 2 00:11:05 But I mean this is also like we've, we've seen the price tag steadily increase, uh, for him. So we're not like, and he can still go out and hit five X Valley, but at the same time, you know, this isn't the same
Speaker 3 00:11:16 Reward. Yeah, I mean he's, since we
Speaker 2 00:11:17 Were targeting him under, when he was in the 6K ranch,
Speaker 3 00:11:20 He's 7,100 this week. Yeah.
Speaker 3 00:11:22 Which is almost the highest he's been all year. So, um, aside from like the duels at Daytona, which don't really count, I mean he's on a nifty little run. He's had five straight races of top 17 finishes, four of those top fifteens, um, across a bunch of different tracks. So as nifty again, I think you could, the price tag though is just a little hard to swallow for him this week because five x at 7,100 is what, 35 and a half points. So he's hit that 1, 2, 3, 4. I mean he has hit it five straight races, six or seven.
Speaker 2 00:12:12 But overall you'd probably just want to dedicate maybe 400 more dollars to a guy like Chris Buscher who in four of his last five races and the one race where he didn't hit 43 points was the All-Star race. And you know, no one's really enamored with that result. So, but like, you know, we're looking at Butcher who was fourth, it's Noma 12th at Gateway eighth at Charlotte for the Coke 600 and then he was top 10 at Darlington. And in those four points paying raises, he put up at least 43 points in each of them.
Speaker 3 00:12:41 Yeah, I mean I think if you're comparing those two Bush's a better play. But I do think that this is where you get into an interesting discussion with, you know, multiry and you know, you normally do like 20 lineups. I think you can use Priest as a pivot at this point. I mean granted the speed wasn't great in practice. Like clearly if we're basing this off practice times we're looking at Bush, right? Um, but if you want to get wonky and do like mid-tier pivots and you still want to keep, you know, forwards in your lineup cuz you think people will play him less, the bar has hit, I mean he's hit the five x value mark at this price tag five straight races. So it's hard to argue against that result.
Speaker 2 00:13:33 All right. After dedicating so much time to the mid-tier, uh, and Fords oddly enough, uh, do you want to dig into, you know, and without noting the starting order, do we just want to dive into some drivers that we should, that we expect to content for the win and leave a bunch of laps?
Speaker 3 00:13:46 Yeah, Liz, I'll, I'll I'll give you, if you haven't seen the Grill versus Grill yet, first of all, check that out. Edro and I enjoyed doing those every week. Uh, we were going to do a futures bet for the off week. Uh, but there was some, some complications with, with that. I was a little under the weather and then the weather didn't cooperate. Um, and then my grill didn't cooperate. Um, but I do have a, I do have a bet out on Martin TRX Jr. As a top five at plus one 10 at Caesar's. Um, so yeah,
Speaker 2 00:14:22 I that you can get that at plus money after he,
Speaker 3 00:14:26 After practice,
Speaker 2 00:14:28 Especially cuz he won Sonoma. He was fifth at Gateway, he was third in the Coke 600 and he won Dover at the beginning of May. It's, it's still stunning that you could even get that at plus money.
Speaker 3 00:14:37 Yeah. I'm checking, I'm checking right now and see. Yep, it's still, now I will say that I did take it, it's easier cuz it's basically the only place that bet is plus money. Okay. DK it's minus 1 25 and bet MGM it's minus one 10.
Speaker 2 00:14:52 I mean that's kind of the fun of like, you know, shopping around for bets is finding the one that gives you the best value anyway.
Speaker 3 00:14:57 Right. And bet for those of you who want to play that is also plus one 10 right now on that top five Beford truex. Um, you can by the way if you want to, which is insane to me. Uh, Bette Rivers is offering a plus 1 0 5 for Kyle Larson top 10 fi or top five finish, which is interesting, although he didn't exactly have the best practice in short run speeds. Um, and he's been kind of a hit or mis guy this year to be honest. Like he's either gonna dominate or he's just not showing up like he's showing up. Okay. But like not to the level that you <laugh> need him to at his price tag every week, if that makes sense.
Speaker 2 00:15:42 And, and I think to that, it's not that it's a down year for Hendrick, but it's, it's, it's almost a year where because of the injuries to Alex Bowman and Chase Elliot, you know, the only two notable Hendrick drivers are William Byron and Kyle Larson. Right. And to the Toyotas with JG R on 23 x I have just made up enough ground to surpass Hendrick and you know, as, as awful of a start that to that J G R got off to in 2022, like 2023, they have been outstanding.
Speaker 3 00:16:13 Yeah. They've been, you can basically count on 'em to be somewhere consistently in the top 10, top five challenging for wins almost everywhere this year there's not really been a track that comes to mind that they completely whiffed on setup ad.
Speaker 2 00:16:32 Right.
Speaker 3 00:16:33 So, um, you know, if you're, if you're looking for some interesting bets, I do like Martin Truex this week. Um, they looked, the Toyotas have looked good the last two races here, um, at Nashville. Uh, he could have won this race last year or finished second I guess if he hadn't followed his teammate down pit road with like remember this was the race where Kyle Bush and Truex had that terrible like
Speaker 2 00:17:03 And they finished like in the teens
Speaker 3 00:17:05 Right. Got trapped in like the twenties.
Speaker 2 00:17:08 Yeah,
Speaker 3 00:17:09 Yeah. Um, after doing quite, I mean you just heard he left like 82 laps last year. Um, yeah, that was a weird, so they know the setup, they showed it at practice, they were pretty good.
Speaker 2 00:17:25 So I think even if you're looking at like the comparable tracks, like, you know, cuz he won Dover and that's a concrete track and he led 68 laps with 33 fastest laps the next week in Kansas led 79 laps and then at Arlington, which isn't like a great comparison, but you know, it's still because it's high tire wear and it's an intermediate track. But he won the pole and led 145 lives but finished outside the top 30 and then, you know,
Speaker 3 00:17:47 Moved up 15 spots at Charlotte and had 24 fastest
Speaker 2 00:17:51 Laps without leading a lap, which is even more impressive.
Speaker 3 00:17:54 Yeah. Um, so, you know, he's been, and Kansas is reasonable as a comp. I mean if we're gonna look at like intermediates at comp pretty well, I think Vegas is a reasonable one because it's so track position dependent. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, um, he ran well there too. Started 15th, finished seventh, LED three laps, six fastest laps pretty good. So he's been, he's been pretty solid points basically all year. Now is this a huge jump in pricing for him? Yes. But was he way under priced on a road course two weeks ago? Yeah, absolutely. The $2,100 jump on DK because they completely missed the ball on giving you Martin Truex Jr. At 8,800 bucks on a road course cuz apparently they forgot that this is where that guy wins. Um, it is the most expensive that Truex has been all year. Do I still think he can hit value? Yeah, I do.
Speaker 2 00:18:55 Based on, so given how underpriced Truex was at Sonoma and what we've seen from practice earlier today, do you think that Tyler Reddick might be that driver, uh, who is severely under price heading into qualifying on Saturday?
Speaker 3 00:19:12 Yeah. Yeah, I, yeah, I think that's gonna wind up being a mess. <laugh>
Speaker 3 00:19:18 $9,100. Um, what the last time he was this cheap was 8,800 at the Coke 600. All he did was go out and move up 10 spots, finish fifth, 37 fastest laps, 28 laps lead. Um, he was pretty cheap at the All Star race. Okay. What whatnot. He put up a great day there. Um, you know, he, every time he is like in this $9,000 range is when he goes just ballistic for the, for the scoring. As soon as you get him over 10 grand, you don't wanna play him this year. But if he's around 9,000, that's where he's, he's just flat out great. Um, so yeah, I have, I, he was really good at practice on Friday night. <laugh>
Speaker 2 00:20:08 Ross Chastain, uh, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off.
Speaker 3 00:20:11 Oh, you're good. Like, just that, that 2311 squad is definitely moving in the right direction. Not to mention that, but I'm pretty sure he has Garth Brooks, uh, on the side of his car this week. Tyler,
Speaker 2 00:20:26 That's awesome. <laugh>, he's in
Speaker 3 00:20:28 Nashville so like gotta show out for that guy.
Speaker 2 00:20:32 Um, Ross Chastain probably looked to be the best Chevy in practice now, but we've also, it feels like we've seen this charade from Chastain before. Um, and really it, he kinda looked like he had to, he was a little bit neutered heading into the, the break. Um, didn't look like he was driving as aggressively had some really poor showings in DFS only, you know, he was 10th at Sonoma. But aside from that, you know, outside the top 20 at Charlotte and Gateway and, and even Darlington and I mean Darlington, he still led 93 laps but he just didn't look like the same Ross Chastain. Is this an opportunity for him to, I guess re I guess find his mojo and, and run up front again? Um, I mean, I mean both track house cars, uh, with Chastain and Daniel sores, they both look pretty fast in practice. And do we, do we feel pretty good about this translating to the race on Sunday night?
Speaker 3 00:21:32 If not now when like right, you've had a break, you've had time to reset getting called out by Rick Hendrick, who by the way, his car haven't done squat since he called out, uh, Chastain either. Um, you know, uh, we've gotta take a shot on Chastain. You can't avoid him for fear that he does what he's done the last few weeks because if he doesn't then you're, you've got no shot. Um, but I'm still not all the way in on Chastain. I still like, I will play him. He will likely be in the playbook given that he was the fastest Chevy. He's had pretty good runs in intermediates this year. Um, but I'm not like full send like him at Martinsville last year. Like I still need to see if that talking to has dialed him back too much. Um, I I I think his mojo comes from being the aggressive guy on the track mm-hmm. <affirmative> and if he's not aggressive, he doesn't know how to make the moves you need to make to do what he's been doing.
Speaker 2 00:22:48 Anybody you like in the mid range, um, with, uh, a little about five and a half minutes ago.
Speaker 3 00:22:55 Um, man,
Speaker 2 00:22:59 I mean we talked about Butcher a lot and, but you know, uh, Klowski
Speaker 3 00:23:03 Yeah. I take a shot on Ty Gibbs at this point. Like you want a good reasonably quick Toyota who's been reasonably consistent. I took a shot on Gibbs.
Speaker 2 00:23:14 I like that he is running the Xfinity Race on Saturday too.
Speaker 3 00:23:16 I mean more track time than a track. It's,
Speaker 2 00:23:19 It's not a bad thing at all.
Speaker 3 00:23:20 Yeah. Um, there's, I don't know, almond Digger could be a guy who's done a lot of winning lineups this week. I j I just think colleague is starting to find something in those cars. Um, he looked good in practice, he's been kind of hit and miss, but on intermediate this year he has pulled out some, at least reasonably solid performances. Um, I don't know the, the value tier is gonna be really hard this week. Like really hard.
Speaker 2 00:24:02 I think it's hard on us right now simply because like we just don't know where they're starting. But I mean I can, if I'm going into like the low 6K range, I'll definitely give Almond Dinger some consideration. I'd be very interested to see where Austin Dillon Yep. Starts. Um, I can't believe he's cheaper than Eric Jones. I I don't,
Speaker 3 00:24:21 I don't understand
Speaker 2 00:24:22 That what Jones has done to earn that. Right.
Speaker 3 00:24:26 Well I guess my only, my only thing with Austin Dillon is they priced him at 7,200. He was 59, he put up 59 points, then they mis priced him at seven thou, they dropped his price again at 7,000 and he put up negative five mm-hmm <affirmative>. So then they're like, okay, well let's drop the price again. 6,100 cuz it's a road course and he's not exactly known as a road racer. We only put up 16 points. Now was that a reasonably solid showing for Austin Dillon? Yes. Um, but I'm with you. I don't know what Eric Jones has done this year that he should be above at Austin. Frankly, Eric Amar shouldn't be ahead of him either.
Speaker 2 00:25:06 <laugh> uh, I guess if we're dipping farther down the list, uh,
Speaker 3 00:25:14 Go-tos, right Harrison?
Speaker 2 00:25:15 Yeah. It's like Todd Gil still criminally under priced at just a flat 5k.
Speaker 3 00:25:21 I mean, is Gilland in the, in the 38 car again this week?
Speaker 2 00:25:24 I believe so. I'll,
Speaker 3 00:25:25 I can't keep it straight to be honest. I know that sounds bad, but like I I can't keep it.
Speaker 2 00:25:30 Well, I mean it's easy like when if he's in the 38 he's in play. If he's not then he's in easy
Speaker 3 00:25:35 Pivot. Right. I'm just saying like in terms Yes, he's in the 38 this week according to the entry list. So JJ Yelly is in the 51. Um, so yeah, he's in play. He's in the 38. That car's been fast. It's like the 51 truck and uh, the truck series doesn't really matter who the hell is in that truck. <laugh>, it's gonna move. Um, yeah, I don't know. What do we think about Axon?
Speaker 2 00:26:03 Uh, I mean I'm probably not gonna play him. It it, I know, uh, like he had the, he wasn't able to run Sonoma, but even, uh, his comments after Gateway when he was in that wreck, uh, that kid sounded so defeated. I get it's been a bad year for Legacy Motor Club. Yeah. Obviously you go from being in the nine car in the Xfinity series for J Junior Motorsports and like you, you're used to winning and being in Victory Atlanta or least contending. So I understand this is, this is obviously been very challenging for him, but he just sounded so defeated and like as soon as he said, I can't wait for this year to be over, I'm just like, dude, you already sound like you're mailing in. And and there were five months to go.
Speaker 3 00:26:41 Yeah. He basically said We're gonna go to Sonoma and then like end the season. Right. I'm like, are you unaware that you're only halfway through <laugh>? Nobody give you the memo that the Cup series is longer than the Xfinity season? Yeah. Um, yeah, I'm with you. He sounded, I I was just like, just curious what people are gonna do with 'em the week after con like, I guess a couple weeks after a concussion, but that Legacy Motor Team is like you
Speaker 2 00:27:11 When Todd, when Todd Gilland is $200 cheaper and obviously putting out better results. I'm, I can give Gregs in any consideration if I have to go at this low for my DFS lineups.
Speaker 3 00:27:21 I mean, to be honest, I'm pretty sure Ty Dillon's been outscoring. Noah Reson
Speaker 2 00:27:28 You
Speaker 3 00:27:29 I'm right.
Speaker 2 00:27:30 Yeah, you're probably right.
Speaker 3 00:27:32 According to dks list, Noah Reson is averaging 16 points per race and Ty Dillon is averaging 18 points per raise.
Speaker 2 00:27:39 Nice. Uh, any thoughts on, uh, contest that you're in favor of? I'm, it's gonna be the same thing for me this week. It's the crow morning. I love that contest. It's the $4 20 max. I love, uh, the payout for it. I mean it's, it's only, it's less than like 10% to first place, but I love the balance payout structure of it and so it's, it's gonna be my go-to once again this week.
Speaker 3 00:28:00 Yeah. I'm probably going more, more G p P this week. Okay. Than cash. It's still a fairly unpredictable track. The fact that it's a night race, we're gonna get the starting grid set at like the hottest time of the day on a concrete track that's temperature dependent. Um, not ideal. Right. So who knows if the person on Pole is capable of holding when the track is cool and has, I guess theoretically for them, if they can hold it in the, in the heat of the day, they should be able to hold it when it's cooler and more grippy. But we'll see. Cuz we don't know what the long runs, you know, long run setups on whoever's gonna win the poll is. Um, so there's a little bit of unknowns there. So I'm, I'm more in favor of more GPP this week. Yeah.
Speaker 2 00:28:58 Think I'm in agreement with you for this week. But, uh, that's gonna wrap it up for us. Uh, Matt, best of luck to you this week, uh, for the Ally 400 from Nashville Super Speedway and best of luck to the FA Nation.
Speaker 3 00:29:10 Best of luck, cafe Nation.
