Episode 13

May 06, 2023


Advent Health 400 NASCAR DFS Preview

Hosted by

Matt Selz Dan Malin
Advent Health 400 NASCAR DFS Preview
Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS Podcast
Advent Health 400 NASCAR DFS Preview

May 06 2023 | 00:30:26


Show Notes

Dan Malin and Matt Selz preview the DFS slates for DraftKings and FanDuel for the Advent Health 400 at Kansas Speedway. They give you what manufacturers and strategies they're using in NASCAR DFS this weekend.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Drivers Start your engine. Speaker 2 00:00:22 What's going on? FFA Nation, welcome back. This is the Fantasy Alarm NASCAR DFS podcast. I am Dan Millen, joined by Matt Sells, and we are streaming through the Better Sports Network app. Matt, how's it going? We are previewing, uh, I guess this would just be the second mile and a half intermediate travel, I guess what they would call the cookie cutter of NASCAR tracks. Speaker 3 00:00:46 Yeah, Vegas is the only other one they've run on. Yeah, Speaker 2 00:00:50 It's hard to believe that we're over two and a half months into the season and this is only the second cookie cutter that we've, that they've actually run. It's the third for the trucks, uh, which are racing later today we are recording this Saturday afternoon. We have yet to see practice and qualifying for the Cup series. Uh, that will be later today. Matt will have the full playbook out with the drivers, uh, and once we get practice notes as well. But in the meantime, we are here to preview, uh, Candace Speedway. Uh, Matt, do you wanna give us a quick breakdown on this track? Speaker 3 00:01:20 Yeah, so, uh, as we just said, it is a mile and a half, so it is an intermediate track. I mean if you wanna count auto club as an intermediate, I guess it's technically the third, but, um, they will be in the intermediate package. We saw that at Dover last week. We've seen it at Vegas. We saw it at Auto Club. Um, I mean Atlanta isn't really like, we're not counting Atlanta as an intermediate at this point cuz they race in the plate package. Yeah. Um, but this is, I don't know if it's Homestead or Kansas, but one of them is my favorite intermediate tracks of the year Because of how the racing is on the track, this track puts it squarely in the driver's hands. There's generally speaking, two or three grooves at this track. There's gonna be slipping and sliding hot temps this weekend in KC like 90 degree temps. Speaker 3 00:02:07 We already saw trucks sliding all over the place, um, earlier on Saturday morning and that wasn't even the heat of the day. So, um, should be, should be a fun time at Kansas. We should see a decent amount of passing. I would say the intermediate package is generally provided more passing, um, than the short track one. So, you know, jazz, because a guy is starting up front or in the back doesn't mean that they're locked in at this point to you know, where they're gonna finish. So it is a, it is a very fun track for dfs. We've had pretty good luck here. It is also a track where you can see a guy dominate a race here. We've seen that uh, previously, uh, last year's I think fall race saw a little bit more shake up, uh, than one guy dominating the whole thing. But you Kenzie one guy run out and hide here. It has happened before. Speaker 2 00:03:07 Do you think the track conditions for practice and qualifying will get better? Uh, the ACA race is running right now. Trucks have already done practice and qualifying, but they will have a little extra rubber on the track, uh, with the ACA race running, uh, as of right now at two 20 in the afternoon, uh, Eastern time, do you think that'll have uh, at least make it a little better for the cups to go out and practice and qualify? Speaker 3 00:03:28 So it'll be interesting because the aere are different. Okay. Rubber compound. Um, so you might see group A having a little bit more trouble cuz it's not as, um, conducive that rubber's not as conducive to finding grip on the track. Group B might be able to put up better time because now you've had a whole 20 minute period of, um, group A going and then trucks will run on on it Saturday night. The only problem is if there's overnight rain or morning rain, which is still, it washes Speaker 2 00:03:58 It away, Speaker 3 00:03:59 It'll wash it away. Um, so there is that, there is that concern. Um, not to mention that practice and qualifying for cup series is a couple hours later than they'll be running the race. So the temps gonna be a little cooler. Um, you'll be a little closer to storms rolling in that are forecast at least, uh, than you might be on Sunday afternoon. So they'll be similar but not, uh, n not exactly the same. Speaker 2 00:04:30 Uh, let's talk contest selection. I think once again for me, um, I don't know, like I haven't played cash games too much lately. Uh, I didn't last week at Dover just cuz there's so many unknowns. Uh, yes, get in the weather and we just couldn't really take anything away from the practice notes. Um, I currently am mostly just gonna be playing the chrome horn. Once again, it's $4 20 max might mix in a little bit of cash games if I can land on a lineup that I like, I don't wanna force it though. I've actually had a good amount of success and just kind of enjoyed, you know, throwing $80 at the chrome horn on DraftKings. I still have some bankroll left over for FanDuel, so I do need to take advantage of the funds over there. But you know, this, this is a standard mile and a half track, you know, uh, I had a pretty good DFS day at Vegas. Speaker 2 00:05:15 I would say of all the, you know, oval 1.5 mile tracks, Vegas and Kansas are probably the closest, uh, the closest to each other. Um, so this seems like a week where it's like no contest type is off the table. You can play 20 max, you can play 150 max if you have it. Cash games are definitely live single entries, three entry max. Like, you know, I would advise people to just like, you know, not necessarily limit yourself, always play within your means, but this is, this is a week where you can play tournaments, cash games, single entry, multiry, like it's all on the table. Speaker 3 00:05:45 Correct. Yeah. This is a weekend obviously we're talking before qualifying. Um, but especially if somebody has an issue with qualifying cash is absolutely on the table. Yeah. Uh, a few years ago we saw like half the field bail tech and most of those guys were like in the top 15 after qualifying and then they just shot up and moved through the field anyway. So, um, everything is on the table here. Obviously don't go nuts. This is not a weekend to say, oh these guys love contest selection so I'm gonna blow everything. No, we, you know, you, you don't do that. You still play within your means. Still be disciplined in your approach. Um, cuz again, anything can happen. It's nascar. When guys are driving 200 miles an hour, anything can go wrong, right? Or Brennan Pool can, you know, break in the entry to a corner and cause a problem for everybody else on track, uh, <laugh>, you know, so I would still play within the means, but yeah, every contest is, uh, viable this week. Speaker 2 00:06:47 You know, when we look at the two races at Kansas last year, uh, they were won by 23 x I racing with Kurt Bush winning the spring race, Bubba Wallace winning the fall race, which was, you know, kind of a good moment for him to kind of silence all the naysayers and people that were doubting his previous Talladega win. Do you expect 23 x i maybe even the Toyotas in general with J G R? Do you expect them to be very competitive this week? Mark George Jr. Is coming off his first win in over a year and a half, so he's got a little bit of momentum, but this has also been a track where Denny's been very good as well. Christopher Bell I think got his first, uh, career Xfinity series win at Kansas. You know, like obviously, you know, the, the driver that everyone's gonna wanna know about is gonna be Tyler Reddick because this is a track where it should fit his driving style and this team in the car that he's in won this race a year ago. Speaker 3 00:07:37 Yeah. Uh, I am loving the Toyotas this week, to be perfectly honest. I think there's a lot of good mojo happening with Toyota. A they've been consistently fast in the mile and a half package for more than a year. Now. If you look up green flag speeds, Christopher Bell is top of the chart over the last year and a half on mile and a half, uh, tracks. So, I mean it's reflected in his last three finishes here of eighth, fifth, and third in the Cup series. Denny has been good at J G R and then his team, his, like you said, won the last two races here. Tyler Reddick dominated in the eight car or was supposed to dominate before he ran into some trouble last year in post races, uh, in the eight car. So can his domination in a Chevy merge with the domination of the Toyota in the 2311 camp and produce a good outcome? I don't know. And what do you do with Kyle Bush who's now in the eight car? Right? Obviously not a Toyota driver, but there is that interesting, uh, piece there. So I, I'm liking in Toyota quite a lot. They also have that news that they're, you know, uh, what is it? Legacy Motor Club is joining the Toyota Banks next year. Um, so there's a lot of good mojo happening with Toyota and this is a track that's generally speaking right in their wheelhouse. Speaker 2 00:08:59 And I think the one guy that we didn't really touch on in any capacity was Ty Gibbs. And that kid has just been a top 10 machine of it and you can make the argument that he had a, he did have a top five car last week at Dover. Uh, but I think, you know, fuel eventually became a concern because they realized they were gonna be about seven laps short. They did get a caution, but they needed a little extra time to really top off the fuel. And so I, I can't remember where he finished. I don't think he got a top 10, but he has been pretty steadily over the last what seems like five or six races finishing in the top 10. Uh, I remember I've seen eye fantasy racing tweet out numerous times this past week or two that he's been one of the more consistent finishers of late. So definitely don't wanna sleep on top Speaker 3 00:09:39 Finish 13th at do Speaker 2 00:09:40 Just outside of the top 10. And he easily had a top five car. That car was fast, uh, all day and I felt bad because I told somebody in our discord to take him out of their cash lineup before. But, uh, I do think that they still had William Byron, so they, they compensated and collected plenty of dominator points. But, uh, so the big conversation this week has been, you know, the Toyotas versus the, uh, Chevys and more specifically Hendrick Motorsports. Which Hendrick drivers do you think we're just gonna look at to assume they go out and dominate? William Byron is probably the one, all of them. OK <laugh>, even Chase Elliot who hasn't really blown us outta the water since he came back from his injury. Speaker 3 00:10:18 Yeah. But like he's been, he's been getting faster is the, like I thought last week he had a very solid right, sure. He technically finished one spot below where he started, but I thought it was a reasonable, a reasonable race and he's been pretty good at Kansas, like his average finish to give you an idea. Okay, here are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here's the top six average finishers over the last eight Kansas races. Okay. Denny Hamlin is one, it's 7.0, Truex is second at 7.6, Bowman third at eight three. Larson is right there at eight seven. Chase Elliott is at eight nine and Byron is at 10. Oh. So you wanna tell me which Hendrick driver we're splitting hairs over here? <laugh>, like, like they've all been good here. Okay. We, we like Larson, we've seen win from the pole. Um, we've seen 'em all run really well. Obviously Bowman is not in the car, um, this week. Josh Barry is, but Josh Barry pulled off a bunch of top tens with Chase's car and looked good again in Bowman's car last week. So I, I don't have a problem playing any of them. Like if you really want a dominator, I would probably give the lead to Byron. Speaker 2 00:11:48 I mean I would too just because Speaker 3 00:11:51 What he's done has been just Speaker 2 00:11:53 From the eyeball test, it looks like he is the one that just has the most comfort in the car at the time and he's just showing up with speed every week. I mean if we, if we're gonna talk about Vegas as a comparable track, you know, he won the race after starting P two on the front row at Vegas, uh, two months ago, led 176 laps, uh, 59 fastest laps, you know, it was 117 points on DraftKings. And this is a week after he led 193 laps at Dover with 57 fastest laps. Now he didn't win, but he did finish fourth. It, it was kind of interesting, like the car was super fast through the first two stages and then it just seemed to still had top 10 speed, but it was just clear that there were other cars that, you know, just had the better adjustments and I don't know what happened to Byron's car but had just lost that top overall speed. But you, I'm kind of with you that I would personally favor Byron just because he's been consistently the most, the fastest driver of the Ford. Speaker 3 00:12:43 Now, in fairness, we didn't get to see what Larson could have done had he gotten to the front impact he was flying, uh, when he was knocked out. Which again, I know a lot of people want to crap on Ross Chastain, but if you watch the replays, I think Brennan Pool actually checked up going into the corner, which gave Ross Chastain zero time not to punt him through the corner. Um, but I would still favor Byron. Uh, you're also getting a little bit of a price benefit there over Larson few hundred bucks. But you compare Josh Barry with any of the three Hendrick guy, the other three Hendrick guys and be just fine. That's gonna be a popular combination I would think. Speaker 2 00:13:25 What's your approach with Penske gonna be this week? It's getting to the point where I am only comfortable playing Ryan Blaney and even then I'm still weary at times because, you know, we've seen that team struggle at this kind of track. Um, yeah, I remember Denny Hamlin saying on his podcast earlier in the year that he doesn't expect Penske or many of the Fords to be able to compete and contend simply because, you know, it's, it's just the aerodynamics of of their cars and that body. Like it just, there's too much drag on the cars. But Blaney's coming in, he finished third last week, he was second at Talladega and then I believe he was also seventh at Martinsville the week before that. You know, he is posted at least 50 points in each of the last three races. But you know, I kind of lean into Hamlin's logic here unless Blaney's on the pole and can get some early dominators and potentially finished top five, top 10. I don't have a ton of confidence in the Penske drivers, but Blaney would be the one that I feel the best about. Speaker 3 00:14:20 Yeah, I'm kind of there with you with all of the Fords in general. Like when we've, when we've seen 'em a mile and a half tracks or intermediates, um, or things where Arrow is important, it's really, it's been really hard to count on them as a group. Yeah. This year. I mean Kevin Harv's probably the second best guy that we're counting on in the Ford camp maybe Speaker 2 00:14:46 Especially cuz it it's just another week where Kevin Harvick isn't as expensive as he probably should be. Speaker 3 00:14:51 Right. And like you're not, there's not a ton of, hey we're expecting him to win but he could land another top 10 and pay off. Right. That's like all we're really expecting from Kevin Harvick and for Ryan Blaney. Can you count on a top 10? I mean the recent, like Dover says yes. Okay, but Dover, they were in the mile and a half package, but that's not a comparable track obviously it's one mile, it's Tylee banked it's nuts. Um, auto Club was not a great day for him. He had some issues. Vegas, he went backwards, wasn't great. Right. So, and I know we can't really count, um, Atlanta cuz it's a plate track, but again, seventh okay. It's a plate track. It's more like Daytona and Talladega where we've expected him to do well. Right. Um, and historically speaking, Blaney hasn't done all that well here. Logano in general hasn't done well. In fact, I think Klowski might have the last win for Ford at this track and that was when he snuck in and won eight races ago. Um, or Logano, Logano might have, Logano has it, but it's like five races since he's one year. Yeah. Um, so I'm with you. I I really need to see something from Ford's this week before I'm fully counting on them and builds. Speaker 2 00:16:20 Does the same kind of apply with, you know, the rest of Stuart racing as well? Like we're okay with Kevin Har, but we need to see something from the likes of Chase Briscoe, Eric Elmar and Ryan Priest, like Ryan Priest. Uh, it, it's Speaker 3 00:16:32 Not a short track. So <laugh> we're a little down on Priest Speaker 2 00:16:36 <laugh>. I was gonna ask because you know, I was pretty high on some of those HHR guys. Like Ryan Priest was a pretty obvious play last week. He started 30th and finished 17th, you know, so, you know, you squeezed 39 points out of him at, at the price tag of 6,900. But you know, Eric Alola has looked pretty future this year. I mean yeah, Speaker 3 00:16:55 He should have retired last year. Sorry dude, but like yeah. Speaker 2 00:16:57 And isn't he locked in for another year? Potentially? Speaker 3 00:16:59 Yeah, not great. Speaker 2 00:17:04 I mean, I also really want to try and like get back on the Chase Briscoe horse because you know, he didn't have a terrible month of April, although he finished 30th at Dover. But again, it's, it's just so hard given that this is a track where the forts have not performed well. Uh, and so really the the two Fords that I think we're in agreement are just, you know, you can feel okay about Blaney and Harvick, but the upside lies with J G R 23 X I and probably Hendrick. Speaker 3 00:17:32 Yeah. I mean it's going to, it's going to not be fun because those are gonna be the popular. So you're going to have to squeeze some weird dudes into lineups to get different here because everybody, you know, the, the pool is what it is, right? It's the same 36 to 40 drivers every week except for the dudes who shift in, but they're almost never a consideration, right. Unless you're on like a road course or a plate track. So if everybody knows that Hendrick has been very good here and the Toyotas have been good here, hell nascar.com on the front page of their site has the hunt for a three-peat going across as the main article earlier this week talking about 2311. So even NASCAR is going nuts for 2311 here. We're gonna have to get different and unfortunately just using those two fors probably won't help. So you're gonna have to sneak in guys like Buscher and Brad, Speaker 2 00:18:33 I do wanna, I did wanna get your opinion on the RFK drivers only because this team from where they were at a year ago, it's almost like they've done a complete 180. You know, Buscher did get a win at Bristol late in the year last year, but, and I think last week is the first time that two drivers from RFK or this organization finished in the top 10 in many years. But there is speed with these cars. Yes, but they are Fords. Um, but again, like if we're talking about who we're gonna pay for at 7,300 Buscher seems like a Buscher is a far better play than Alma and probably Austin Cindrich and arguably Ryan Priest. But you know, it depends on where everyone's starting. But in terms of pure speed, like I haven't really had too many issues like ha you know, filing a com complaint against, you know, Klowski and Buscher for what they've done in that equipment. Speaker 3 00:19:24 Yeah. I think you may actually find some value in that range with Klowski and Buscher given the fact that on DK you have Logano at 8,400 Klowski at 82 Suarez might be intriguing at eight grand Ty Gibbs that we already talked about, 7,800 Josh Barry is 7,700. So people trying to get Chief Hendrick guys are gonna be all over Josh Barry. Right. Briscoe 75, uh, you know, I think more people probably play buscher than Briscoe. Uh, priest is 72, Stenhouse is intriguing at seven grand and somehow when you at least expect an Austin, Dylan usually shows up at a, at one intermediate track a year. <laugh> Speaker 2 00:20:06 Like when he won Texas. Speaker 3 00:20:09 Yeah. Like he, like I I don't, I don't know Austin Dylan usually like when you least expect it and you're like, ah, he hasn't historically done well here. Like, but maybe he already did that at auto club when he finished. Right? I I, I don't, I don't know because in Vegas he didn't look very good. No. Um, so we'll see. But there's, there's definitely some intriguing value and the, the value tier is really going to be the, where you're gonna differentiate yourself. You're gonna have to hit on that budget guy Speaker 2 00:20:45 Sadly because of the nature of this, this race and what we kind of know what to expect at this type of track. It seems like we kind of know who the value plays are gonna be. Um, like I'll be going to Haley I'm assuming, uh, he's 5,800. I don't think that the car has speed every week. Yeah, last week was a pretty disappointing performance because I remember early in stage one he got into like the top 16 and looked fast but then it, I think it was just a case of every other team and Carb made the adjustments and they got caught up to him and so he finished outside the top 20. Um, I always get alman dinger wrong, especially last week he started 29th and finished 18th. I never feel great about playing the college guys but you know, I do like mixing in Haley cuz like on any week that car could have speed and he could finish top 10. Corey Lejo in the value range 5,600, he hit nine x value last week. Uh, when he started, I Speaker 3 00:21:37 Was gonna say he has it between Vegas Auto Club and Dover, the three tracks where they use the intermediate Yeah. Package so far he's finished no worse than 20th. Speaker 2 00:21:48 Yeah. And so you know Corey la Joy just because he is a relatively clean driver, um, and somehow he can sneak away with a top 15 like he did last week too. Yeah. And then we'll probably go to Gilland as well. But it's like, you know, I think we have enough of a sample size this year where it's like I don't wanna play Eric Jones and I don't wanna play Noah Gregson because that team sucks and they can't figure it out. Speaker 3 00:22:08 Oh this is his haircut. But you know, <laugh> Speaker 2 00:22:11 The bull cut, Speaker 3 00:22:12 It's so, Speaker 2 00:22:13 Yeah, it's horrendous. Um, but he, he owns it and he leans into it so good for him. But I, I think in the value to your and it Sure practice and qualifying could maybe, you know, give us another, another driver driver to consider. But like it's just we know who we're probably gonna land on and I hate it at this time of year cuz we're, we're given the same 40 drivers every week essentially. And, and we kind of know which are the valuable or the reliable value please. Speaker 3 00:22:38 Yep. Exactly. So I don't, it's gonna be interesting to see who the highest played, dude, like between 9,000 and up is on DK to be perfectly honest. Speaker 2 00:22:55 Do you think it will more likely be a dominator or one of these guys that maybe has their like qualifying time disallowed and they have to start at the back? Speaker 3 00:23:07 Well if that happens then surely they're going to be Speaker 2 00:23:09 It's the PD guy. Speaker 3 00:23:11 It's the PD guy, right? Yeah. But you've got Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Reddick, bell, Truex, chase, Chastain, Kyle Bush, Blaney and Bubba are all nine K or above on dk and all of them have a claim to be in that range except for maybe Blaney Speaker 3 00:23:34 Because the, the three Hendrick guys that are in there, they've all dominated well here. Mm-hmm <affirmative>, right. Reddick was fast as all get out last year before a getting caught up in somebody else's wreck in one of 'em and B having a tire go down in the other one. Hamlin has been starting to show speed. It's also Toyota, his teammate or his, the team that he owns has also been fast, right? Bubba won here. Um, REDX also in the car that won here last spring. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, Chastain is the points leader and has been fast despite, you know, maybe doing it the wrong way. He's been fast. Um, and Kyle Bush has been resurgent this year, so Speaker 2 00:24:17 Two wins baby. Speaker 3 00:24:18 You can make an argument for all of them potentially being dominators, which is gonna make the top of this board very interesting to, to c Can you put two of em together? Maybe you're gonna have to pick the right mid-tier and value tier guys if you're going with two over nine K, but I, I think you can get away with it. Speaker 2 00:24:44 Uh, what are your thoughts on, and I hate to, I know we're at the point of the podcast where we should probably be talking my own strategy and we'll get to that. But I am curious what you think about Daniel Suarez, uh, because he got off to a really good start this year. Uh, seventh at Daytona. He was top five at auto club and he finished 10th at Vegas after he started 24th. Since then, it's been a pretty rough go aside from a top 10 at Talladega. And last week I was actually pretty overweight on Daniel Suarez because I didn't think anybody was gonna play him starting P 15. I loved the speed initially because it looked like he could finish top 10, maybe even top five. And then he kind of screwed himself by getting loose early on and he wrecked himself outta the race and he finished his 35th. So that instantly killed about five of my 20 lineups. Um, he did get a top 10 here in the, in the fall of last year after he started 15th, um, in the spring race. He finished outside the top 30. What is more likely to happen with Suarez this week? Can we get another top 10 out of him or is this a week where he just doesn't have current form undecided? We should probably just focus solely on his teammate rather than him. Speaker 3 00:25:47 Well, lemme put it this way. I put Daniel Finn, Daniel Suarez with a top 10 finish at plus one 60 in my PIIs betting piece that came out on Friday. So Speaker 2 00:25:58 I also think that because of last week's result and because he had a pretty poor April that maybe even lowers his ownership even more. Speaker 3 00:26:04 Correct. Uh, comparable tracks though, you know, earlier this year, like you said auto club in Vegas, he, he finished top 10, inside the top 10 at both of 'em, so there's speed there, he knows how to do it. He's had two top 11 finishes in the last four races here, so, you know, uh, I think last weekend was a weird one with him spinning. I just think the track was in a weird spot. He spun early in the race. Um, Speaker 2 00:26:33 He wasn't the only one either. Speaker 3 00:26:35 No, he is not the only one. And that was, it was just a weird race weekend. Speaker 2 00:26:40 It was a weird opening stage. Speaker 3 00:26:42 So do I expect him to win? No, but could we get a top 10 from him? Yeah, I, I don't, I don't see why not the sh I mean he's in the Chevy camp, his teammates got speed so I would be, I'm fine with him. You know, projecting as a top 10 finish guy. Speaker 2 00:27:02 Uh, what is lineup construction gonna look like this week? Is it mostly gonna be a two dominator build uh, mix in a couple solo dominators as well? We've seen that happen before, although I've been less inclined to go with solo dominator builds. Speaker 3 00:27:15 Yeah, we haven't seen that very much in the next gen right era. We've seen our, so Speaker 2 00:27:19 Remember those days when Brad Klowski and Martin Trus could lead 450 laps at Martinsville? Speaker 3 00:27:24 Yeah. That hasn't happened, right? Yeah, we're Speaker 2 00:27:26 Not, we probably don't get it in this car. Speaker 3 00:27:28 No. Um, you know, there's 267 laps in the race on Sunday. I would expect, I would expect one guy to maybe lead a hundred and then, you know, a couple others in the 50 lap, you know, 50 to 70 lap range or so. That's pretty much what we saw. I don't think anybody cracked leading a hundred laps last year. Uh, I think the most we saw in one race was 90 something, um, last year Kansas. So, and, and you know, yes, Byron has gone out now if you're gonna build a solo dominator, I think one of the Hendrick guys can go out and flat out dominate the race. Like we saw Byron do it twice so far this year. Um, but I, I'm probably going, if I'm building 10 lineups, I'm gonna have six or seven be two dominators and the other ones be solo dominators knowing that if you miss on a solo dominator, you're gonna be dead in the water, Speaker 2 00:28:32 Uh, no chance at like a three dominator build or you just like nothing. It's viable. Speaker 3 00:28:36 I don't think it's like if you're talking about 267 laps and you're talking about three dominators, it's like 80 something laps a guy. Yeah. Which makes a difference. But it's not like if you miss on one of the dudes leading 80 laps, it's not gonna kill you. If you miss on a guy leading 150 it, you're not winning a tournament, you may still hit the money line but everything else has to go right for you. So, um, in this case, by the way, over the last 10 races at Kansas, 80% of the winners have come from the top 10. So if you're looking to have the winner in your lineup, they've come from the top 10 starting spots. Three races ago, Larson came from the pole to win. Um, one of the guys that didn't win in the top 10 started 13th. So it's not like they were terribly far back. The other one was 23rd, but that was the infamous race in which basically the, they took the top 20 and flipped them cuz everybody failed tech inspection. Oh Speaker 2 00:29:30 That's right. Speaker 3 00:29:31 Right. Like if you look at that one, basically the entire top 10 started outside the top 20 in that race. So that one's kind of an outlier. Um, typically speaking, there's not a ton of cautions here, but if it's being, if it's gonna be slick, we'll see more. We could see some tire, some tire issues cuz heat builds up in the tires, could see that. So, um, it's not gonna be pure chaos, but we are going like probably two dominators and the rest some PD plays. Speaker 2 00:30:08 All right. Well Matt, uh, that was a pretty solid Kansas uh, preview for this weekend's Action. Best of luck to you this week and best of luck to the FA Nation. Speaker 3 00:30:16 Best of luck, FA Nation.

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